Final Prediction: Who do you think will win? (not who you want to win)

Biden wins, pretty handily.

DD

 

50/50 on who wins the popular vote. OP made quite a few salient points that convinced me.

 

Lol mostly...I'm sure most of them, like some of the ones that post here, will just hide from the forums and the internet after a snarky "Congrats, dems will ruin this country" post then bail until 2022 and the mid-terms.

But, would I be surprised if some violence is enacted once Biden wins? Nope. So personally, I'm staying inside post-election. I think people really underestimate the fervor of some of Trump's base.

Personally, I'd stay away from any post-Biden celebratory rallies. I think for some of these people, to have their dream authoritarian state so close and yet snatched from them is going to make them angry. Trump losing handily means they will have to take their fascism elsewhere. I mean these people have already tried to kidnap a US governor. Shooting up some place they think liberal 'traitors' are gathered is a step down from that sadly.

And while most Trump supporters I'm sure will just be upset and won't do anything violent, I think there's always one wacko or a group of wackos that will be wanting to start something.

And if say, day 1 or 2, it's clear Biden wins because he's won Texas, Georgia, Florida, or PA? Either of these states go to Biden, wrap it up...then what? Does Trump concede? I don't think so. What will he say?

I could easily picture clown trump telling his supporters to "Take America Back!" and promoting that the election is a fraud and other such things that might promote violence...and we'll have to deal with that. Trump will either do everything he can to hold power or he'll tuck tail, pardon himself, and let Pence deal with the transition. I just can't see Trump peacefully transitioning power to Biden.

 

Sounds like you planning on getting out there to intimidate some voters on Tuesday!


I predict Trump supporters are truly planning to form an army to interfere with roads and traffic and prevent people from traveling to polls. Mass protests and unrest near and around polling stations will certainly reduce turnout in urban areas helping Trump win.

 

I prefer Trump to win but not many people can really be that Anti-Biden. He's a return to
career politicians and hopefully won't be taken over the extreme elements in his party.

I don't mind if Biden wins as will be a great example to democrats that its just not successful
for them to push extreme Bernie Sanders type candidates and messages and policies.

If Trump wins, I fear this may cause further discombobulation in democrats leading to even more
extreme positions and a potential Bernie or more extreme in 2024.

I happen to think whomever inherits this economy and situation will be in for some real national pain and
I wish them the best to help as many citizens, families and such will be in severe economic pain resulting from
the closures needed to curb the pandemic. Godspeed to both and America!

 

Literally broke your own rule five seconds in, and can't bear being challenged to explain it. What an absolute waste of a thread. Hell, I predict the Oilers will come back, and Pardee will sign some tight ends and full backs in time for the Buffalo game. Also, Jamie Lawson will get the hint and finally go steady with Harriet. AN' AH EM NAHT HARE TUH DUBBATE!!

 

I hope so. They b****ed nonstop with Obama all while turtle held his **** in for six years.

These shy Trump ****ers know they been baaad widdle boys.

 

So you would be good if all of the Rs ballots were found to have non-matching signatures and all of the Ds ballots with matching signatures? Or vice versa?

Determining a signature match is wildly subjective but is a legal way to manipulate the vote.

 

He will not be shamed ... for all of his political beliefs which go against all of his religious beliefs.

 

So I have changed my mind. I think Biden will win it.

Hopefully Trump will accept graciously. Not counting on it, though.

 

Are we still debating in the no debating thread?

Gentlemen there can be no fighting in the war room.

 

You and I clash often in not so nice ways but I give credit when its due... excellent point and even better reference my friend.

 

Nate Silver got it wrong four years ago. I don't think he's silver... he's more like tin... or copper.

How have the polls changed since 2016 to show me they don't do toward the DNC candidate? They seem to all be behaving that way, EVEN IN TEXAS. Common, get real. I mean hey maybe Texas is blue and I am just out of touch but I highly doubt that.

 

I still fear Trump stealing the election. All those mail ballots, all those SNAFUs.

If it were a fair election? Biden in a walk. Hence the cheating.

 

upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/6/60/1984nationwidecountymapshadedbyvoteshare.svg/500px-1984nationwidecountymapshadedbyvoteshare

Thank you for posting your 1984 map and pretending like it matters today. Trump ain't Reagan.

 

Biden - won’t know officially till Wednesday

 

Re-read and 538’s analysis is actually very informative.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

He was not wrong that Hillary had a 71% chance or winning. Look at the graphic with the road map and the mean line. Look at those states that flipped to Trump and how all of them were vulnerable.

If you look at the 2016 data and then look at the 2020 data more states are closer to the mean for Biden/Dems but they are still close to the mean. So Biden as a candidate or Trumps referendum or both have made more red states competitive ... but those states are still ALL not all hard to be conceivable to flip flop either way and you have believe that they all trend towards each other like in 2016.


We all know the polling in WI and Michigan is off and favors Dems. 538 takes that into account where other predictors do not. I’m not a Nate Silver fanboy or anything but completely disregarding the data here denies yourself the chance to really understand this election’s reality. Which is that this the most competitive 10 point lead we’ve ever seen and soooo many states are purple states now.

Turnout and counting all the votes are the two keys but I expect we’ll see a “break” one way or another very soon on Tuesday night once votes start being reported. Trump has banked from day 1 that turnout of his base is what’ll win him re-election and that there were enough non voters in his base he could turn into voters with enough Trumpism pumped into our daily politics. He might not be wrong but the data doesn’t necessarily support that it will be enough to offset the gains a Biden would have peeling off previous Trump voters in 2016 and better turnout as a better candidate than Clinton.

 

If trump wins the looters will be out in full force. Stay out of the big cities.

 

If trump wins loses the looters red neck white national gun toting incels will be out in full force. Stay out of the big cities country in general.

 

it was mid 90s.
if you pack a bunch of waiters bouncers and bartenders into one place share costs and longer rentals it helps. but yes I hear it has shot up. i wonder how that has impacted the party scene over the years.

curious how much some of the lesser known islands are in costs and still just as nice i bet..seems the british pick a spot and its constantly changing in terms of vibe and hotspot.. im sure there are some gems you can talk to although the way santorini sits high like that i imagine is unique.

very cool you are in crete. since quarantine I have been looking into old civilzation and minoan stuff is fascinating. i dont know much still but pretty cool that you can go there. interesting how crete has been inhabited for so long. as an island it must have felt like its own world for thousands of years