Final Prediction: Who do you think will win? (not who you want to win)

Depends on what you mean by wins.

I think it honestly comes down to how many mail in ballots get disqualified for whatever reasons

 

Dang you mean I can’t vote after the election? I was gonna vote for Biden but I sprained my knee and can’t get to my mailbox. I need a community bus to pick me up at the doorstep, take me to the mailbox and provide travel accommodation While still adhering to science protocols for return to my front step

 

Do you have hypothermia at a Trump rally?

 

An economic policy of running a trillion dollar deficit when the economy was doing pretty well. How long can you do that? Yeah it will make your numbers look better but at some point it will stop working.

 

yeah i didnt think you did thats what makes it intriguing to me. i have been listening to hear the talking points directly. he says things and same day you start seeing it pop up..

as incumbent ..2020 and all else im not convinced of anything. i thought hilary would win by big margin and i was wrong. so i dont have any illusions here...you/he might be correct. you certainly could have thought this on your own.

i do think there are many that didnt vote last time and will vote for biden. i personally know over 10 people like this.

the polls might be off due to many factors but this not being one..

to think someone would lie due to fear shy etc ..i find it to be apologetic and obscure ..strange to say folks would misrepresent themselves in a poll. i also find european/uk spin to surprisingly fall in line often with rush talking points. its curious to me.

i was astonished how much trump support when i was last in uk ( before virus) it was actually weird and made me realize how much conservative republican like mindset they have

 

For what it's worth, 2016 wasn't really evidence of a "shy Trump voter" - the polls just were modeling turnout levels incorrectly and underestimated turnout of various demographics in the midwest (they missed on the opposite side in other areas, which is how they got the overall margin right). Polls are weighted to account for what pollsters think the electorate will look like, so it's not necessarily that people didn't tell them they'd pick Trump. The polls may have just discounted their likelihood of actually voting.

The 1-in-3 on this forum isn't evidence of a shy Trump voter either because this is who people *think* will win rather than who they will vote for or want to win. So it's evidence of PTSD of Dems, or people being smarter than the mathematical models (which suggest a 10% chance).

 

I'd say in Germany it's 90% anti-Trump.

 

The reason for the shy voter is hating gays, Mexicans, blacks, foreigners and supporting conspiracy theories is frowned upon...

 

I'm sure 1940's Germany would love him...

 

If there are shy Trump voters so there are shy Biden voters.
Mothers and wives who live with their Trumpster husbands and will go behind their back to vote against Trump.

where the heck did you go? In the rural middlelands?
The european spin is that Trump is a lunatic even with all the anti immigration sentiment.

 

Pretty much everyone pro-Brexit is pro-Trump as well. Some of my wife's relatives from the countryside would definitely fall into that category.

 

I'd say in my neighborhood all the pro maga yard signs that were there in 2016, 2018 have all but disappeared unless my neighbor Joe stole them all and placed him in his yard, guy has 20 signs. I still think they're voting Trump but I think some are embarrassed. For example one had the crenshaw sign and in the back it had "No corta grass hoy" in marker. That neighbor always has his yard done by some fine compadres. I never do yard signs.

 

Nook, there are a lot of these voters out there that don’t hate any of those groups of people or support conspiracy theories.

 

Yeah trump supporters don’t intimate people it is the other way around. Lol

 

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/11/01/politics/iowa-poll-selzer/index.html

 

Definitely a case of bus envy.

 

Dewey

 

Absolutely, but that is why there are shy Trump voters. They don’t want to be associated with racists and weirdos that believe in conspiracy theories.

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/three-words-haunt-joe-biden-130020853.html

Good article to read on the topic I guess, although with the media being fake these days, who knows if it is accurate..