He missed 47 possible games in 2008. That's about 30% of the season! Despite having far fewer AB and GP, he had comparable HR and RBI numbers in 2008 to seasons where he didn't miss games or only missed a few games. He may not have broken his HR record but I wouldn't rule it out. He almost certainly would have broken his RBI record. His SLG, OBP and AVG were all at career high levels when he went down. His SLG and AVG were well ahead of his previous highs. I think it's fair to say 2008 would have been far and away a career year for Lee if he didn't get injured.
Really? You'd rather have him hitting a HR every 19.6 at-bats instead of every 15.5? You'd rather have him getting an RBI every 5.3 at-bats instead of every 4.3? You'd rather him have a lower average, lower OBP, and lower OPS? He was scoring runs at a higher pace as a result of having a better bit middle of the offense around him in 2007, though.
I said the exact same things last year and what happened? Plus it was a year with no major injuries for us, unlike a couple teams that still finished better than us in our division. Remind me how far the same team we have now plan getting into the playoffs? Can you honestly tell me we're put together better than the Cubs or a healthy Cardinals team this year? Of course, i only played the game through HS and watched countless games on TV and in person. Therefore i know nothing about the sport that is so complicated. Since i'm stating the facts about their pitching. How come none of your so called "experts" from ESPN and SI aren't predicting anything from us either? I say "your" experts since i am not one. Try and find one non biased Astros article saying we're playoff bound. Or check out their Vegas odds for winning it all. I have no problem with your optimism of a new year, but don't insult my intelligence. I thought this was a board to express thoughts and opinions, not to dictate people who believe other than you. I believe there's a word for that.
yes, i can. i believe the astros will finish ahead of the cardinals this season. as much as it pains me to say it, the cubs are the best team in the division and SHOULD win it. but this is baseball..anything can happen.
Can you indulge a lazy Internet BBSer who doesn't want to take the time to read up on the current state of the Cardinals with some details? I know they're not what they were, but honestly I can't even tell you who's in the rotation. They've got like Pujols and... ?
Lee and Wigginton, certainly. Oswalt made 33 starts last year and pitched over 200 innings. Matsui and Wandy are injured every year - neither of those was unusual and should be expected annually. The Cardinals didn't have any major injuries that I know of either - except missing Carpenter for the entire season. It remains to be seen how well he'll bounce back this year, though he's looked good in the spring. Ankiel's injury was probably the equivalent of Wiggington. Both teams are pretty similar to what they were last year, but the Cards scored 70 more runs than us and gave up 20 fewer runs than us last year.
IF, IF, IF. You can say that all day. He WAS injured and it WASN'T a career year. Besides, his numbers have always been very comparable. Sure, he was on pace to hit a few more home runs and have a few more RBI, I'll give you that. But, looking at the numbers, you know what you can expect from Carlos Lee and his 436 AB's last year were not a fluke, nor was it a career year.
I know they have a lot of bullpen questions...including closer, where they're starting a rookie. See below for a couple of different looks at it. http://cardsdiaspora.com/2009/02/2009-projected-starting-line-up-v-10.html C: Yadier Molina 1st: Albert Pujols 2nd: Joe Thurston 3rd: David Freese SS: Kahlil Green RF: Ryan Ludwick CF: Rick Ankiel LF: Chris Duncan SP: Adam Wainwright SP: Todd Wellemeyer SP: Joel Pinero SP: Chris Carpenter SP: Kyle Lohse Closer: Chris Perez Looking at this for the very first time this spring, it's a bit galling to see how much of this line-up is still not very stable. In fact, the rotation seems to be fairly well set while all three OF positions and 2B/3B are still big, big questions. Plus we don't have a closer. How much will this change in the next 6 weeks? Much. How would you set it up? Who would you move? http://www.mlbdepthcharts.com/2009/03/cardinals-lineup-remains-biggest.html If there is one team that I do not feel very comfortable projecting at this time, it's the St. Louis Cardinals. While the pitching staff appears to be falling into place, the lineup remains full of question marks. I've had Colby Rasmus ticketed for AAA all along and I've stuck with the Skip Schumaker projection at 2B, but the recent demotion of projected backup outfielder Brian Barton has thrown me for a loop. With only Rasmus and 24 year-old Jonathan Jay in camp and outfielder Joe Mather projected to start the season at 3B, it probably means that one of three things are likely to happen with this current roster. Option #1. Rasmus starts the season in AAA and the rookie Jay serves as the 4th outfielder. WHY NOT? While Jay is having a productive camp (12-for-32), he has just 58 career AB's at the AAA level. Option #2. Rasmus opens the season in the Cardinal outfield with Schumaker at 2B and Chris Duncan on the bench. WHY NOT? If LaRussa feels the kid is ready, there is no reason not to break camp with him in the lineup. Option #3. Schumaker moves back to the OF, Duncan moves to the bench, Rasmus and Jay start in AAA, and one of the backup IF candidates could start at 2B WHY NOT? Taking Duncan out of the lineup in favor of Joe Thurston or Brendan Ryan would result in a less explosive offense.
Of course not. But, I'd rather him have 627 AB as opposed to being hurt and having only 436 AB. I would take his '06 and '07 over his '08. This year if he hits .309 85 runs 35 HR 125 RBI, would it be a career year? It would be a career best in RBI by 6, but overall pretty comparable to '06 and '07.
Certainly - but I think people were saying that he was having a career year *when he got hurt*. It would depend. RBIs and R's aren't really useful in terms of measuring career years since they are dependent on the offense around him. More useful would be if he posted career highs in HRs, AVG, OBP, SLG, and/or OPS - he was on pace for career bests in all of those last year, which is why many people think of it as him being on pace for a career year.
He was on his way to having a monster RBI season that's for sure. There is really no argument here. Carlos has proven to be one of the most consistent and best hitters in baseball for the past few years and I would expect him to hit b/t .300-.310 with 32-37 HR. Now, if he hits .315 with 45 jacks and 135 RBI, it would obviously be the best year of his career.
Also it is the Cubs, so you never know what kind of bad luck they may experience through the course of the season.. I do believe Astros can finish second in the division and challenge the Mets, Phillies, or even Braves for that Wild card spot. Chilcutt
I think Ludwick had a career year and is going to come back to earth. Troy Glaus is a big question mark for the season, and he hit 27 HR last year. The offense just won't be as good as it was last year, outside of Pujols and maybe Ankiel. They have 3 pretty good starting pitchers, but I wouldn't call Wainwright an ace, and the pen is very suspect (though no more than last year, I guess). The Cards don't scare me.
and that was almost his exact projected #s last year had he stayed healthy (.314/39/140) but you're getting stuck on mostly counting stats (which, obviously, are going to be impacted by his missing out on nearly 200 ABs last year). and i think you're also maybe taking "career year" as a knock, which it certainly was not. he has been very, very good - if not borderline great, certainly from the plate - since coming here. and i suspect he'll post his usual 125-130-ish OPS+ this year (which is very good). but last year was far and away the best year of his career by any non-counting measure. to expect a repeat, when he's 32 and not in appreciably good shape, is asking a lot. he's certainly capable of proving me wrong, though...
I think Schumaker will repeat last year and be good at the top of that order. (Whether or not he can learn 2B remains to be seen...preseason was not a great showing) I expect Wainwright to improve (or at least be good consistently this year). I think the Cards can do some damage and should be in the same range as the Astros..
Ludwick is the big question mark. He was absurdly good and come out of nowhere, so history suggests he should regress. On the flipside, he was once a top prospect (a 2nd round pick) and he was ridiculously consistent last year. He had one bad month (June) and otherwise was above 0.950 OPS every other month. That's not what you normally see with those one-year wonder types. So who knows what happens with him. I think that gets balanced out by Carpenter's return. The rookie closer that MadMax mentioned is a questionmark, but Isringhausen was horrible last year (ERA over 5, lots of blown saves), so Motte probably is still an improvement. I did forget about Glaus being out - that certainly hurts their offense.
I'm not getting stuck on anything. "If, would have been, could have been or projected to be before he got hurt," are not the same as actually accomplishing it. By any non-counting measure . You said it would be SILLY to expect a repeat from Carlos Lee of his 2008 season. Personally, I expect more than 115 games played, more than 28 HR, more than 60 R and more than 100 RBI. I don't care if he was "projected to" or "on his way" to having a better year last year or not. He didn't. Ken Griffey, Jr. would be "on his way" to being the All-Time Home Run King if he wasn't "impacted" by his "missing out" on nearly 200 games in his career. Call me silly if you want.
i, uh.... huh.... his injury doesn't invalidate the season he had; it just impacts stats that are dependent upon staying healthy and playing everyday. i recognize there's a component of guessing when it comes to what ifs and projections - but there was nothing about the way he was playing to suggest he wouldn't have set career highs in HRs and/or RsBI had he been in the line-up every day. (hell, as is - he was just 9 off his HR pace and 19 off his RsBI pace - and that was with him missing nearly 200 ABs - nearly a third of a normal season for him. give him... half the ABs he missed and he likely would have made a run at both marks; he certainly would have bested them had he played 160+ games as he's done every year since 2005.) additionally, when you look at non-counting stats, he set career highs in BA (.314), OB% (.368), SLG% (.569), OPS (.937), OPS (144+) - he had his best year as a hitter - injury or not. and it's not really close or up for much debate. i recognize staying healthy is part of the package... but you can't use it to negate his accomplishments. i mean, bagwell tied or bested his HR and RBI numbers from his MVP season in five other seasons - but no one would argue they were better years than his 1994 campaign, where he (would have) missed the final 50 games. if lee returns to his normal level of production, he'll still be a very, very good hitter; but not as good as he was last year.
