Anyone who doesn't believe Goran will get at least 10 mil this offseason doesn't understand supply and demand. Nothing to be ashamed about. Mark Cuban didn't understand it when he let Nash go to Phoenix for 65 million. There are more buyer than sellers. Goran is one of the best unrestricted free agents this off season. There are at least 3 teams that will be looking hard for a pg and several others on the fringe. Portland, Dallas and New Jersey, one of those will be taken out when DWill chooses one of them but the other 2 will even be more interested in Goran. All you need is one to make an over the top offer and it's all over.
Rockets absolutely must be proactive in signing Gogi. The Rockets do not have the luxury of sitting back to see what the market is for Goran because unlike Lowry a couple of years ago, Goran is unrestricted. If some team makes him an offer that just blows him away and he signs that's it, Rockets get no chance to match and no parting gift, they lose Goran for nothing.
i suspect 10 mil per year. hopefully other teams are trying to jump after jeremy lin first....not for his basketball talent of course, but for his incredible marketing potential.
Stricter future cap penalties could lead teams to be more careful with how much money they are willing to spend. Just going off one sites numbers I count: 5 PGs 7 SGs 11 SFs who will be making at least 10 million next year. Just aren't that many wings and specifically point guards who get that kinda dough. Not saying its impossible, but I just think its unlikely.
I tend to agree with this. When Lowry got his contract he was a point guard that had never started (except a game here and there) and could not shoot threes. Goran has played well his entire career and has really amped it up as a starter. Kyle has never played as well as Goran is playing right now and that says a lot because I think Kyle is phenomenal.
FWIW, some sample contracts of players to provide some frame of reference for Dragic's contract. Raymond Felton: $7mil/yr, but only two years. Jose Barea: $5mil/yr Ramon Sessions: $4mil/yr. Andre Miller: $8mil/yr. Was 32 though. Beno Udrih: $6mil/yr(a few years ago though) Unless a team wants Dragic really badly, his contract probably tops out at $8mil/yr. I think the best comparisons may be Felton and Udrich, basically a 4yr/$25-30mil contract. Of course, the Rockets have the edge here, since we can offer him a guaranteed 5th year. But I don't think the numbers are as high as some are mentioning here. Also, Portland and NO seem to be the only teams with tons of capspace and desperate need at PG. It's arguable whether either team will put all their eggs into the Dragic basket and give him a huge offer. If they don't, then the Rockets should be able to hang on to Dragic with the extra incentive of a 5th year. Say a 5yr/$35mil contract. Which to me is reasonable.
Kyle makes almost 6 million a year and he got that with out ever starting and not being able to hit a 3pt shot (at the time). Goran has proven he can start and play at an all star level. I have a hard time beleaving he won't get a few million a year more than Kyle.
Kyle got a 3yr contract with a 4th year team option. He had only $18mil guaranteed but can't test the market until after 4 years if play well. OTOH, my proposal has Dragic making guaranteed $35mil(twice the money). It's possible that if Dragic wants more flexibility, the Rockets can make the 5th year a player option. It would most certainly be much better than Lowry's contract by quite a bit.
Starting at $8 million for four seasons. If he gives us a discount, then I'm sure he'd expect the starting spot. Failing to re-sign him means Money Ball fails.
What if a team severely overpays for him and we don't match? That means it didn't fail. DM will not overpay. He has brought in Lowry and Dragic for Rafer and AB. Who's to say that he can't do it again?
Morey has the ability to get Lowry/Dragic/Lin when their value are low. There's no reason to doubt Morey can't find another value from draft or trade.
When did we lose one? Surely you're not talking about Artest. Or Lin who just had knee surgery. If anything we keep bringing in good players for scrubs. Lee for Ariza. Lowry for Rafer. Dragic for AB. Scola for VSpan. We can do this all day.
Maybe he can, and I like the low risk moves that end up turning into something valuable (except for Williams). I'm just worried that the Rockets will become a farm system for other teams with cap space in need of a starter who plays the __ position.
