Yes. Key thing will be to time the length of the contracts handed out right so that we can a) offer Sengun the max when he comes up, b) retain the rest of our young core, and c) target much better free agents than this current class has to offer.
We have to spend 50m so let’s see how we could do this without ruining our flexibility. Grant Williams 4/80. 30m 2023 20m 2024 20m 2025 10m 2026. Reeves same deal. That’s 60m and takes care of our commitment and gives us 2 really good rotations pieces. I think we may have to give Reeves 88m over the 4 years, but 30m in the first year should take the Lakers out of the running.
Derrick Rose was a formerly super athletic guard who shot 30% from 3 last season with a 46% TS%....that seems like the kind of players the Rockets are seeking these days and he's available....
Give me Lopez and his 3 point shooting/Shot blocking defense. Reaves and his ability to play the point, off the ball, create for others and shoot at a high rate. If they can't get Reaves then give me Vincent. No to FVV. Johnson and his size/ability to shoot the ball would really help out at the 3. If Johnson can improve defensively and he's young. He could become this generations Horry. If they sign 3 FA's who gets let go to make room on the roster?
Serious question about Reaves: What is the fit there with KPJ? Seems to me there's a lot of overlap between their strengths and weaknesses. Reaves is probably the better player of the two (though it's hard to say for sure given the vastly different circumstances and usage), but is he enough better and enough different to be worthy of a big payday? Maybe if we sign-and-trade KPJ to the Lakers for him?
The Rockets really need Patrick Beverley back, moreso than Harden. The team is going to need toughness & Bev has shown in 2 different places that he can change culture. Hopefully he can bring what he brought to Minnesota
What I might offer, best case scenario. I’ll probably be way off from what they’ll actually get. James Harden - 2 years, $80M ($40M) Fred VanVleet - 3 years, $100M ($33.3M) Austin Reaves(RFA) - 4 years, $100M (“We’re gonna match, we’re gonna match.” … OK, make them match. Don’t let them get away with the 4/52 offer.) Donte DiVincenzo(PO) - 3 years, $45M ($15M) Jordan Clarkson(PO) - 2 years, $30M ($15M) Khris Middleton - 2 years, $60M ($30M) Josh Hart(PO) - 4 years, $68M ($17M) Bruce Brown - 3-4 years, $60M ($15M) Dillon Brooks - 1 year, $10M (Don’t want him but they’re interested so whatever) Cam Johnson(RFA) - 4 years, $80M ($20M) Draymond Green - 2 years, $44M ($22M) Rui Hachimura(RFA) - 2 years, $20M ($10M) Jakob Poeltl - 3 years, $60M ($20M) Brook Lopez - 2 years, $40M ($20M) Dwight Powell - 1 year, $8M-$10M
Hollinger values: Spoiler James Harden, 33, Philadelphia (player option): $47,075,783 According to our Shams Charania, Harden is torn between returning to Philadelphia and gunning for a championship or returning to Houston and going 33-49. Either way, he’ll be opting out of his deal for 2023-24 and $35.6 million, a relative bargain he accepted to allow the Sixers to sign P.J. Tucker and still stay below the tax apron. The thing that makes the two possibilities financially more even is the league’s “over-38” rule, which prevents a player of Harden’s age from signing a five-year deal for the full max. Normally that guaranteed fifth year would be the kicker that would allow Philadelphia to win any bidding war, but instead, the advantage may be with Houston: the Sixers can offer more on a four-year deal ($210 million to $201 million), but because Texas has no state income tax, the overall money is basically even. Given Harden’s age and conditioning, this is likely too much money for Harden no matter what: BORD$ sees the first year as fine, and one could possibly justify this from Philly’s perspective as a strategic overpay to try squeezing a title from Joel Embiid’s prime. Note that in the absence of other moves, a four-year max for Harden would also push Philly to the tax apron with only 10 players under contract, possibly complicating efforts to re-sign free agents such as Paul Reed, Shake Milton and Jalen McDaniels and using their midlevel exception. The same contract in Houston would have few tax implications: Houston projects to be more than $60 million below the cap, and Jalen Green and Alperen Şengün don’t become free agents until 2025. Fred VanVleet, 29, Toronto (player option): $46,873,792 I sometimes wonder why there is such intense focus on Irving and the Lakers when VanVleet is nearly as good and vastly more reliable. This BORD$ valuation is slightly bloated by Nick Nurse’s insistence on playing his starters 47.9 minutes per game, resulting in VanVleet’s minutes estimate being unrealistically high for what he’s likely to face next season — whether under new coach Darko Rajakovic in Toronto or as a free agent. The other twist here is that VanVleet only has seven years of experience, which means his max is “just” $40.2 million — a relative bargain, at least in the first year of a multi-year deal. A good deal structure for him would be three years with a fourth-year player option, which lets him cash in on a 10-year veteran max for 35 percent of the cap if he’s still playing at a high level in 2026. VanVleet certainly will opt out of his final year at $22.8 million and has no incentive to sign an extension yet because even the revised extension rules in the new CBA won’t net him nearly enough. Austin Reaves, 25, L.A. Lakers (restricted): $22,865,329 Is Austin Reaves worth the max “Gilbert Arenas” offer sheet? It looks like he might be. A breakout star in the Lakers’ run to the conference finals, Reaves is the rare case of a player limited by the so-called Arenas rule because he signed a two-year contract when he entered the league. That limits him to signing with the Lakers for the league’s average salary, projected at $12 million a year. However, an offer sheet from another team has different rules. It can pay him the midlevel exception in the first two years, (starting at $11.4 million), and the max salary in the third and fourth years of the contract, which would come in at $36.8 and $38.5 million, respectively. Such an offer sheet would pay him a total of $98 million over four years, which is not entirely out of line with his BORD$ valuation. The twist is that the Lakers can’t offer this to Reaves: The maximum L.A. can do on its own is $53 million over four years. That larger deal would have to come in the form of an offer sheet from another team, one with at least $25 million in cap space. There are softer versions of this that are possible; for example, bumping up the third and fourth years to a mere $25 million would require only $18 million in cap room. The good news for the Lakers is that their cap sheet can handle this offer sheet structure, because the Reaves salary bump would happen right as LeBron James’s contract expires (if he picks up his player option) at the end of 2025. That makes it less likely another team will offer it — why burn through the entire moratorium plus a one-day matching period on an offer sheet that will just get matched? — and likely leave L.A. in a strong position to retain Reaves at midlevel exception-type money. Jordan Clarkson, 31, Utah (player option): $19,712,238 Clarkson has a player option for $14.2 million that he is likely to decline and hit unrestricted free agency … that is, unless the Jazz decide to get funky. Because Utah is so far below the salary cap for the coming season, one option for the Jazz would be to have Clarkson opt in and then immediately renegotiate and extend his deal to put a large cap number on the books for 2023-24 and much smaller ones in the extension years. At Clarkson’s age, a two-year extension probably makes more sense than three years, but they could get the number low enough that even three would be a huge positive (not to mention highly tradeable). For instance, let’s say the Jazz and Clarkson determine he’s worth $65 million over the next four years. The standard way to do this might be to sign a contract that starts at roughly $15 million and contains 8 percent raises. The more creative way to do this, however, would be for Clarkson to opt in then wait until the third anniversary of his contact signing, which because of the COVID-19 year isn’t until Nov. 23. He would then be renegotiate-and-extend eligible. At that point, the Jazz would use $10 million of their cap room to boost his 2023-24 salary to $24.2 million. It would be tough to use much more than this; the Jazz need to at least spend up to the salary floor by opening day or face additional penalties in the new CBA, so the maximum amount they would want to stay under for the purposes of this contract is $13.4 million. By rule, his salary for 2024-25 is allowed to drop by a maximum of 40 percent, to $14.5 million. Then they would decrease it by the maximum allowable 8 percent the next two seasons, to $13.4 million in 2025-26 and $12.2 million in 2026-27. Over the four years, Clarkson would make his $65 million, but Utah would have front-loaded the money to minimize the impact on its cap. Or, Clarkson could just opt out and sign someplace else.
Spoiler Donte DiVincenzo, 26, Golden State (player option): $16,280,336 DiVincenzo got what he needed out of his year in Golden State, rehabilitating his value by shooting 39.7 percent from 3 and entering free agency right in his prime. The question is whether anybody values him enough to pay him as a starter with cap space, or whether he tops as a midlevel exception signing for about $52 million over four years. With a paucity of teams with cap space and a crowded shooting guard market, it’s possible he gets squeezed. Either way, he will do far better than the $4.5 million taxpayer MLE he had to settle for last summer. DiVincenzo has a player option for $4.7 million to return to the Warriors, I should note, but there is zero chance he exercises it. Khris Middleton, 31, Milwaukee (player option): $26,822,042 Middleton has a player option for $40.4 million, and there is no way he’s getting a salary like that on the open market. But this may be a situation where he and the Bucks can work out an arrangement that sees him opt out and re-sign a longer-term deal for lower dollars. First, that’s more in line with what Middleton’s value is these days after a couple of injury-wrecked seasons, but second, the Bucks’ tax situation almost demands it. Getting Middleton’s salary down into the mid-$20-million range annually is what can allow Milwaukee to re-sign Brook Lopez and still remain below the first tax apron. A four-year deal in the $100 million range would be the equivalent of a three-year, $60 million extension but would potentially save the Bucks tens of millions in luxury tax in 2023-24. Bruce Brown, 26, Denver (player option): $17,764,642 Brown was one of the best 2022 free-agent signings in the league, if not the best, helping the Nuggets to the NBA Finals on a bargain $6.5 million contract. (Although some people had him rated as the top free-agent small forward last summer.) He’ll likely opt out of the second year of that deal and get paid this summer, with virtually every team with midlevel exception money or more circling him as a possibility. The Nuggets will have no Bird rights on Brown, so the only possibility of his staying is to sign a one-year deal for $7.7 million and then re-sign in Denver as an early Bird rights free agent a year from now for a likely $13.6 million. Even those numbers, however, seem to badly undervalue Brown, so it’s more likely he flies the coop. Josh Hart, 28, New York (player option): $28,607,658 Hart was outstanding after his trade to New York and had a really good stretch in the second half of 2021-22 in the brief window between his trade to Portland and the Blazers pivoting to abject tanking. Nonetheless, even the most homerific Knicks fan would probably admit that $28.6 million feels like a lofty valuation for Hart. His career shooting (35.0 percent from 3 on low volume), age (28) and size (6-foot-5 if you pull on his toes) all weigh against paying him as a top-dozen shooting guard like this valuation implies. That said, New York won big by bringing him in from Portland for the cost of a late first. Hart surely will opt out of his below-market contract, but one presumes he’ll be back in New York on a multi-year deal that pays him like a plus wing starter (in the $20 million range) for the next three or four years. Dillon Brooks, 27, Memphis: $17,746,207 Under any circumstances? Really? What about the circumstance where you can’t find a starting-caliber small forward with your non-taxpayer midlevel exception? The minute Memphis said it wasn’t bringing back Brooks, however, he immediately became a hugely interesting free agent for any team with cap space and defensive issues. Coming off a second-team All-Defense selection and in the prime of his career at 27, Brooks should be an attractive target for cap room teams such as Houston, Detroit and Utah who need a defensive stopper and have the ability to go above the midlevel exception on a multi-year deal. Draymond Green, 33, Golden State (player option): $23,789,491 Green is a fascinating case because he’s probably more valuable to the Warriors than he is to any other team, and because his player option for $27.6 million offers numerous opportunities, none of which are totally clear as the best option. Green could opt in for another season, opt out and try to ink a longer deal right now or opt in and sign an extension using that salary as a base. Depending on your valuation of him, all three are plausible. Given Green’s age and diminished offensive value, I’d argue the best course for Golden State is to try to minimize this year’s staggering luxury-tax bill as much as possible by having Green opt out and sign for three or four years at a lower number. Even if the raises in such a deal lead to an overpay as Green gets deeper into his 30s, the rising cap and expiration of Klay Thompson’s whale contract will combine to soften the sting. Relative to the tax, especially, this feels like a really logical play, as the potential savings on the Warriors’ 2023-24 tax bill from even a small pay cut are staggering. The devil is in the details: What sounds fair for both sides? Three years at $70 million would line Green’s future up with Curry’s, leaving both contracts expiring in 2026. Starting such a deal at $21.6 million rather than his current $27.6 million would save the Warriors as much as $40 million in luxury tax, depending on their other moves.
Spoiler Cam Johnson, 27, Brooklyn (restricted): $26,368,306 Don’t be surprised if the bidding on Johnson gets a little wacky, simply because rival teams know they might be able to scare the Nets from matching if they can present a strong offer sheet. Brooklyn enters the offseason just $10 million from the projected tax line; matching a strong sheet for Johnson would push the Nets past the first tax apron unless they could ditch salary someplace else. (Joe Harris and Patty Mills would be the likely places to start.) The other consideration, of course, is that Johnson is such a plug-and-play fit in most systems because he can competently guard both forward spots, runs the floor and shoots 39.3 percent career from 3. There isn’t enough shot creation here for star-level upside, which is why teams should be careful going too high up the salary ladder, but Johnson is a valuable piece who seems likely to have multiple suitors. Brook Lopez, 35, Milwaukee: $16,241,034 The truism with players this old is that it isn’t the money that burns you, it’s the years. Lopez was awesome this season, but he’s 35 and missed nearly the entire previous regular season with back surgery. Between that and his playing the least valuable position, the BORD$ valuation is pretty conservative. Milwaukee has absolutely no choice but to bring Lopez back. As noted with Khris Middleton in the small forward rankings, Lopez has some incentives to extend out the years rather than going high on the money in 2023-24. In Lopez’s case, however, that’s constrained both by the “over-38” rule and by the real possibility that Lopez could decline quickly in the out years on a new contract. I don’t think the money gets quite as low as this BORD$ number suggests, but maybe something in the range of $55 million to $60 million over three years? Jakob Poeltl, 27, Toronto: $25,260,040 The midseason trade to the Raptors means that Poeltl is now literally a dinosaur center. The issue for him in free agency is how much such players are really worth in today’s NBA? Even an elite version of that player, such as Poeltl, has limitations. Offensively, he can pass, screen and shoot floaters, but he has no 3-point range and has to be taken off the floor in hack-a-Jak situations. Defensively, he is an awesome rim protector who rebounds, but doesn’t fare as well in switching schemes. That skill set has been devaluated in the modern NBA, but Poeltl is one of the best versions of that archetype. Additionally, the Raptors seem pot-committed after giving up a lightly protected first (top-six through 2026) to add Poeltl to an average roster still in flux. This BORD$ value may be slightly overenthusiastic, but I’m willing to bet the first digit on Poeltl’s 2023-24 salary is a 2. Rui Hachimura, 25, L.A. Lakers (restricted): $4,999,881 This feels low after a playoff run where he posted a 16.0 PER on 66.8 percent true shooting, but Hachimura had a fairly meh regular season in both Washington and L.A., landing at 31.9 percent from 3 (in a much bigger sample!) and still forcing things too often offensively. Even so, Hachimura will surely have offers higher than this BORD$ estimate; in fact, his qualifying offer of $7.7 million will exceed it. The Lakers are incentivized to bring back Hachimura in any scenario where they don’t use cap space, provided they can keep the dollars reasonable and stay below the second tax apron. That could leave them vulnerable to a predatory offer sheet from another team, and they should definitely have a walk-away number in mind. But Hachimura fit better in L.A. than he did in Washington, and I’d expect him to provide decent value on anything south of the midlevel exception. Dwight Powell, 31, Dallas: $10,145,237 Powell isn’t the biggest center, doesn’t have 3-point range, is a poor rebounder for a five, racks up fouls and has perhaps lost a bit of athletic juice. All that is concerning if he’s signing a multi-year deal. On the other hand, he shot 73.2 percent last year, which makes up for a lot of ills. A lot of it was on rim runs and freebies from Luka Dončić, but Powell also shot well in floater range. That, and solid defense, is a big reason the Mavs can’t quit on him, despite repeated attempts to try. Dallas is in a tight spot vis a vis the luxury tax, presuming it re-signs Kyrie Irving for something close to the max, so it will want to shave Powell’s number as low as possible. One way to squeeze things would be to offer him multiple years at a lower number than his market — say, three years and $20 million to $25 million.
He takes care of the ball better and has a better feel for the game. He's a better fit for Udoka's offense. IMHO
It really depends on what usage Udoka has in mind for Beverley. Udoka might also be looking for a veteran PG who does NOT play 30+ mpg. Udoka might want a PG who practices and plays the right way.
I'm on the Austin Reeves train... I hope we sign that white boy. I'm all in on that. This is the kind of player and point guard this team needs. He would help Amen a lot too.
