[Feigen] Harden and Howard want Asik and Lin to stay

Harkless not likely to be an allstar, but again, very talented and very young. Very early to prognosticate but you're probably on firm ground (after all; it's pretty damn hard to be an allstar). Vucevic has a good chance in my opinion. Agreed he's not anywhere ner the defensive player Asik is, but this guy is younger, will be better offensively, and could definitely put up the stats to merit consideration in a center-starved league, as early as next year.

Agreed Orlando didn't get enough, but disagree about Vucevic . Think he's got a solid chance at an allstar season.

 

LOL! Lamb couldn't even got off the bench, pent time in the D-league. Yes, he was a better prosper for sure.

Not necessarily. Do you know how many all stars came from lottory picks in the past 20 years? Example, Cleveland.

You are really selling Hackless short!

 

Exceptions to rule. There's a reason you can buy picks in that range every year. Manu Ginobili was pick 58, but you don't see that pick holding much value. Non-lottery first rounders, on average, are usually crap, and they also compromise your cap room due to guaranteed contracts. When you're trading Dwight Howard, that shouldn't be your goal.

Yes, I would have. He's a classic role player on a good team. Putting him as the top option on a bad team was a recipe for disaster. And by the time Orlando is ready to contend again, Afflalo will be on the downhill side of his career. If Orlando wanted a "placeholder" SG, Martin was a better choice, since he had a track record of producing on bad teams and would also give them more immediate cap relief.

Asik's value isn't in the traditional stats. It's in his defense, which you have to go to advanced numbers to fully appreciate. Vucevic isn't at that level (Asik had 3.5 defensive win shares to 2.9 for Vucevic, despite Omer playing fewer minutes). Also, Vucevic blocked 1 shot in 33 minutes, and a non-shot-blocking center has limited value unless he's great in multiple other areas.

I did watch Harkless play. His "better numbers" after the All-Star break were because Orlando turned things over to the kids and gave him extensive playing time. In the context of 36 minutes, no, a 13/5 line isn't particularly impressive -- especially not with when combined with 31% from 3 and 57% from the free-throw line. It's mediocre at best. That's why his PER was below average.

Huh? I'm not judging the Rockets here. I'm judging another team.

No, it wasn't done for the future of the franchise. As explained many times, what's best for the future of the Magic (or any rebuilding club) is lottery picks and cap flexibility. This deal didn't give them much of either. It was done because it was the best compromise given two factors:

1.) Hennigan's reluctance to cross Dan Fegan, who allegedly threatened to blackball the Magic if they traded Dwight to a team not on his "list"

2.) Orlando ownership's rumored "promise" to Dwight in March 2012 to trade him to a destination of his choosing, should their "re-marriage" not work out

Those were the factors that drove Orlando's deal, which was a terrible one from a basketball standpoint.

 

Draft has its hits and misses for sure. I have to agree the higher the better.

While not a star, every team needs a good role player. Afflalo has been a consummate pro and plays hard on both end of the floor. That's what good role players do. Martin on the other hand is a one dimensional player, older and more expensive. I'm going with Afflalo.

Asik is at 1.1 blocks, it's a wash. Vucevic is more athletic and has a jumper. For price/performance, Vucevic hands down.

You have to cut the kid some slack. He's just a rookie, but he responded quite admirably and looked promising.

 

Uh, of course Martin was on the table. Otherwise, it wasn't going to work from a salary standpoint. Parsons was rumored as a possibility as well. And you're being completely disingenuous to act as if the Toronto pick was the "only" pick going to Orlando. There were multiple future picks besides that going to Orlando as well. Even if we assume Chandler wasn't included:

Lamb > Harkless
Martin > Afflalo (particularly for salary reasons)
Toronto lottery pick + future Houston first(s) >> pile of non-lottery garbage they got

The only question is whether Vucevic is a great enough piece to offset the superior picks and cap relief from the Houston deal. Hint: he's not.

 

LOL! Lamb played for the second-best team in the NBA, while Harkless played for the worst team in the league. That might have had a tiny bit to do with the playing time each received.

 

I did. Harkless averaged 13/5 in 36 minutes after the All-Star break, including 31% from 3 and 57% from the line. Those are extremely mediocre numbers. Yes, it's a possibility he could become Paul George. So could Robert Covington. It's more likely that he's just mediocre.

Compare what Orlando got for Dwight to what New Orleans got for Paul:

-- Eric Gordon (valued much more highly than Afflalo at the time)
-- Chris Kaman (dependable big man but more importantly, expiring cap relief)
-- Minnesota's unprotected first-round pick in the very next draft (which turned out to be #1 overall!)

No one is saying you're going to get "equal value" for Dwight or any superstar leaving. But if you're going to completely rebuild, the biggest priorities are probable lottery picks and cap flexibility. New Orleans managed to acquire both for a star leaving in an identical circumstance (they used the draft pick on Anthony Davis and cap flexibility on Ryan Anderson the next offseason). Orlando didn't even manage to get one. That is a disaster of a trade.

P.S. On the Vucevic point, part of playing on a bad team involves lacking competent teammates to take rebounds from you. No matter how bad your defense is, there are rebounds to be had. And when your frontcourt mate is 6-foot-8, 225-pound Tobias Harris in a small-ball lineup, well...

 

OK, why is Lamb > Hackless then?

 

First of all, it's Harkless. For as much as you seem to know about the guy, you'd think you would know his name.

Second, the same reason virtually every scouting report had him ahead of Harkless going into last year's draft.

CBS: Lamb 8, Harkless 15
http://www.cbssports.com/nba/draft/big-board

Chad Ford, ESPN: Lamb 13, Harkless 20
http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/results/players/_/id/19660/jeremy-lamb

John Hollinger, ESPN: Lamb 17, Harkless 35
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draft2012/story/_/page/PERDiem-120618/nba-2012-nba-draft-rater

Aron Smith, NBADraft.net: Lamb 5, Harkless 14
http://www.nbadraft.net/ranking/bigboard/2012

You can read the scouting reports yourself for specifics. The bottom line is Lamb was universally considered a better prospect with superior upside, and the fact that Lamb couldn't crack the wing rotation for the defending Western Conference champions as a rookie doesn't prove otherwise. In fact, all indications (such as winning MVP at summer league) are that he's ready to take a key role for OKC this year.

 

We're splitting hairs, at this point. I think Vucevic's rebounding rate is a bit inflated due to the style/personnel Orlando used for much of the year, and he's not an interior presence due to his lack of shot-blocking. I think that keeps him below All-Star level in a conference with Hibbert, Lopez, Horford, Bosh, etc. manning the middle. I do think he's a serviceable big man and a good piece, though, so I can see where you're coming from.

Bottom line, in the big picture, we seem to agree: Orlando didn't get enough.

One more note related to my prior post: no, teams don't have to go the cap relief/probable lottery pick route when they trade a superstar. But if they don't, the only sensible route is to do what Denver did in the Carmelo trade, in which they prioritized "win now" and might have made their team even better. Orlando somehow managed to fail at immediate cap relief/lottery picks (touting the "professionalism" and readiness of Afflalo/Harrington) while simultaneously falling from a playoff team to the absolute worst in the NBA. That's an impressively awful trade.

 

I'm talking about the value they have now.

 

Didn't the trade happen last year? I could've swore this offseason, Orlando did not trade Dwight Howard. But rather he signed with the Rockets for nothing.

 

Little has changed. Neither has been an appreciably good NBA player, and the reason Lamb didn't play is obvious (#1 seed in West). You don't significantly alter the long-term view of a prospect after one season unless there's extreme evidence one way or the other, and there's not much substance on either of them right now.