[Feigen] Daryl Morey sees improvement for Rockets despite criticism

Didn't they promise we'd sign a big name FA this offseason? Now Morey's promising we're gonna gonna make changes by next years deadline."

Morey's operates like a used car salesmen. Constantly selling Rocket fans on what he's doing but when the results don't pan out, he's back to selling us another dream. I'll be glad when the fans eventually get smart and start seein thru these little PR stunts

 

You can't just look at his raw scoring numbers because his role has been very different in various seasons. If you look at his output per 100 possessions, you'll see than he's been consistent over the last 9 seasons.

Here's his points per 100 possessions:

'06 18.6
'07 21.2
'08 17.7
'09 18.6
'10 20.8
'11 17.2
'12 17.9
'13 18.8
'14 20.9

Add to that that his shooting percentage has been increasing over the years and that he's a perfect fit for our needs. We'll be fine.

 

You are comparing apples to oranges. Last year we had the room exception and that was it. From reports Morey did try to sign several players with that money, but got overbid by other teams. The Room exception doesn't offer the Rockets any advantage over other teams. Every team has a room exception or better. You say we didn't sign Delfino last year. We did go after a player who signed for the same amount as Delfino in Dunleavy. Except we didn't have $3mil to sign him. So you can't use last year's failure to sign depth as an indication that Morey will be unable to do so again this year.

This offseason the Rockets have trade exception, most of their MLE intact, and several non-guaranteed contracts that are capable of matching some good salaries. While these pieces by themselves won't net the Rockets significant players, they've generally been able to get rotation level talents.

Some notable players from last year that didn't take much or anything to get.

Caron Butler
Luol Deng
Derrick Williams
Steve Blake
Spencer Hawes
Marcus Thorton
Courtney Lee

Some of these were traded because of contract lengths. Some of these players may not really be that good. But I don't think it would be surprising if the Rockets can get 3 players the caliber of Hawes, Butler, and Blake between now and the trade deadline. And that would be more than enough to make up for the loss of Asik and Lin. Add to the fact that DMo and Jones will improve, plus as you say we may find another hidden gem on the roster, and suddenly things don't look nearly as bad.

On the surface we look bad right now, but there's plenty of potential. Whether Morey can achieve that potential will determine our success next year.

 

Everyone generally agrees that Dorsey's game has improved during the two years he spent in Europe. Even disregarding that, all you have to do is to look at Dorsey's production in his season in Toronto in 2011. Those were his only meaningful minutes in the NBA and he put up good rebounding numbers.

Dorsey - 2011 Toronto Raptors - 13.1 reb/36 minutes

In comparision:

Asik - 2014 Houston Rockets - 14.1 reb/36 minutes
Asik - 2013 Houston Rockets - 14.0 reb/36 minutes
Asik - 2012 Chicago Bulls - 13.0 reb/36 minutes
Asik - 2011 Chicago Bulls - 11.1 reb/36 minutes.

We were 22-12 without Asik last year and that was with D-Mo serving as the backup center. Losing Asik isn't going to kill us as many are predicting. We'll be fine.

We gave Asik a $24M/3yr contract when he had only played less than 15 minutes per game in each of his two seasons in Chicago. Part of the reason for that was because his rebounding numbers per minute were elite. Houston was convince that his numbers would continue if given more minutes. Dorsey's numbers are comparable to Asik's so it's not out of line to think that he can server as a backup center for Howard.

 

To be accurate, what Morey said was that the Heat would be a 45 win team with a maxed out Bosh, Lebron and Wade.

Remember that Miami had completely cleared their roster and only Joel Anthony was remaining on their payroll. Morey's estimate was based on Miami having to fill the remainder of the roster with minimum level players.

What ended up happening is that Miami's big three all took less money which allowed the team to go get some non minimum guys. That's a different situation that what Morey's estimate was based on.

Our attempt to land a third star was nothing like the Miami situation that Morey made the 45 game estimate about. We wouldn't have had 3 stars and all minimum guys. We would have had Parsons, Beverley,D-Mo and Jones to go along with the big 3. Additionally we would have had a likely lottery pick and an 8.3M Trade exception to use to round out the team.

Morey's prediction, Miami's actual situation and our potential big 3 this offseaon are three completely different things.

 

Agree and well said.

 

I don't always read others' posts. But when I do, I prefer aelliott's.

Stay posting, my friend.

 

Asiks main strength wasn't rebounding, it was defense. Pretending dorsey gives you the same production as Asik is a fantasy. Asik is an elite defensive anchor in the NBA. Dorsey was decent in Greece, significant difference.

 

The Rockets' haven't replaced their playmaking needs. No second playmaker among the starters and backup on the bench.

Morey spent years looking for a second playmaker in the SF spot.

Ariza, Budinger, T-Will... Finally found one in Parsons. Now back to Ariza again.

 

The big difference there is the Rockets didn't really have ANY playmakers on the wing during that period (T-Mac was a shell of his former self when he even played). Now, the Rockets have one of the top wing playmakers in the entire league in James Harden. Far less need for another wing playmaker now.

And Ariza was brought in in 2009 to be a playmaker, which he really isn't. This time around, he is being brought in to be a top-notch role player. In the role being asked of him this time around, he should thrive.

 

Asik is a starting C who was unhappy coming off the bench. Dorsey is a back up C.

 

Having a second playmaker on the floor especially at SF is often stated as ideal. I seem to recall Morey mentioning the same.

 

And for a comparison, Parsons scored about 22 points per 100 possessions last year, also his contract year. So yeah, I like Ariza more in this case, slight less production on the offensive end, but more defense, much lower salary.

 

a reliable off the bench scorer is very much needed..don't ever tell me that we gonna give the reigns to canaan, daniels and johnson..

 

You are discrediting wespey and jackson. They were proven solid. We have unproven dleaguers. Now that's scary.q

 

Exactly. They need to add some grizzled veterans at some point, Ariza was a good add and possibly Marion may be another. The PG position has very little experience and its such an important spot on a basketball team. And most importantly a good defensive coach.

 

I don't think the Rockets lose anything with Ariza for Parsons, what they will miss is the bench help Asik & Lin provided last season. But ultimately, the Rockets' success will be how they incorporate Howard's half court into their running game. I expect some improvement from the half court offense, but backwards from the running game. Overall, it'll be slightly worse than last year, win about 51 games, and lose in the 1st round.

 

Asik was brought in for defense and rebounding. Pick you favorite defensive stat and do the same exercise.

Here's Defensive Ratings for the two

Dorsey
2009 Drtg - 108
2010 Drtg - 105
2011 Drtg - 107

Asik
2011 Drtg - 97
2012 Drtg - 92
2013 Drtg - 103
2014 Drtg - 103


Dorsey's worst defensive rating for a season is better than Asik's best. Now of course Dorsey didn't really play significant minutes except for the 2011 season. The point is that Asik isn't irreplaceable. He missed a ton of games this year and we won at basically the same rate without him or another option at center. We'll be fine with Dorsey.

 

Just out of curiosity, why do you think that the running game will be worse? Because Lin is gone?