I completely agree the Democrats are playing it wrong. Fear mongering seems to be the choice for modern campaigning. I won't vote for Trump not because of some existential threat to democracy (which is some of the dumbest **** i've heard), but his continued disrespect and incompetence for the seat. Ultimately what I am afraid of is Trump super charging the economy straight into a depression. Sure, this could lead to the fall of our democracy, but the idea Trump will put a crown on his head and the world will bow before him is just stupid fantasy talk.
The IRA and CHIP acts will have a positive impact for decades. Both were thought to be dead, but Biden did a great job getting them through, showcasing his track record of legislative accomplishments. Some of you might have already forgotten that McCarthy negotiated directly with Biden on the debt ceiling. While publicly mocking Biden's age, privately he acknowledged Biden's sharpness. Many on the right said Biden out-negotiated McCarthy, to the extent that McCarthy was eventually removed as Speaker due to the debt ceiling deal. The situation in Ukraine is horrible, but the Biden admin has handled it fairly well. They warned the world of Russia's attack, aligning most everyone against Russia. They played a delicate balance, avoiding excessive U.S. involvement while providing support for Ukraine and holding NATO together. All of that will be jeopardized under Trump - NATO is likely to fall apart, Europe might have to fend for itself, and the U.S. might need to, once again, come in and clean up the mess post-Trump. AI will impact literally everyone. You want a President who is for workers, not just for himself. Whatever you may think of Biden, he stands for workers. In contrast, we know what Trump is for - tax breaks for the very top and whatever benefits him personally. People often forget that it's not just one person; it's about the team they build. Trump claimed to hire only the best, but we saw that they were below par and he ran an inner team of several criminals. In a second term, he would only hire Trump-yes-men, creating a one-man show. Biden, on the other hand, has a very competent team. As the election draws closer, these comparisons will become more focused. Other than both being very old, there is literally an ocean of differences between these two. There is no bothism here.
Last I saw the percentage not wanting Biden to run was 86%, not 75% like Nate Silver said. So, he's wrong about that.
He started to tank after the Afghanistan pullout and hasn't recovered. Like you, I see this election as elitism vs populism. But, we somehow get to very different places from there. Populism embraces democratic elections but thumbs its nose at the rest of Western liberal democracy, like rule of law, jurisprudence, separation of powers, coequal branches, and regulatory proceeding (the Deep State). In the extreme version, they want to vote for their one guy and whoever wins quashes everything else I listed in a simple tyranny of the majority. Trump's instinct is to seek that extreme version, but he needs to chip away at our institutions of liberal democracy to get there. If Trump doesn't take over the US after winning the next election, it'll only be because he doesn't have enough time left on this Earth to do all that chipping. But, there would be at minimum an opportunity open for a similar person to take advantage of the weakness he creates in order to finish that job. Elitism is currently defending the status quo of all those ideals of Western liberal democracy. And, yes, the elites perpetuate their own status and wealth by doing so. And they're probably huge hypocrites who will abuse the ideals they defend for their own advantage. No one here is a saint. But, seeing the struggle as populist vs elite, I can see on which side my bread gets buttered. Elitism isn't making me a millionaire, but I do enjoy things like jurisprudence and rule of law. So there's that. Silver's accusation is honestly lazy and dumb. Who is "You" in this sentence? Is it me? The party? The electorate? Who is he insinuating has the agency here? But for my part (my part is just talking and then voting for Biden in November because I intend to vote in the Republican primary), I want Biden to be the nominee. Here is why: 1. He is the most electable Democrat A. Incumbent advantage: Already well-known an incumbent outperforms a new challenger B. Recognized Democrats won't run: Maybe Newsom could win without an incumbency advantage, but he's not in it C. Record: Biden actually has a strong record from passing several signature laws that will transform this country D. Experience: Even big name Democrats would face some questions about the length of their resumes; Biden has federal experience, legislative experience, and executive experience all in spades E. Demonstrated moderate: He's a known quantity and while he's pissed off some progressives, no one can be made to be afraid that he's going to do something crazy (like they would say about someone like Bernie Sanders) F. The drag of his age is overwhelmed by his advantages over the field in all these other areas 2. I am not concerned about his age A. He might have slowed somewhat, but he still seems to have his faculties B. We have the 25th Amendment and an order of succession if his faculties quickly erode; unlike Trump he probably won't fight removal tooth and nail if it came to that C. Kamala Harris hasn't done much to distinguish herself as VP, but neither is she terrible; still a better president to be stuck with than Trump D. Also unlike Trump, Biden Admin is run by a team; if Biden died, we could go a week without noticing 3. I'll get over the crap he's done that I don't like (foreign policy and border policy) A. He has taken compromise positions on things like Gaza and the border that I don't like, but I'd like Trump's positions even less B. My preferred and more progressive policy positions would probably meet with harsh conservative reactions if a president were to actually take them, leading to worse long-term outcomes
On Populism vs Elitism is that we’ve seen so often in history where Populist revolutions overthrow a prior elite only to end up installing a new elite. This why the rule of law and Constitution is so important. Yes from those who want to challenge the status quo those things can be very frustrating. The Founders were the elite of their time and it’s no accident that it does make change hard. The tools of the Constitution though have protected individual rights from the elites as any lawyer from the ACLU could tell you. Also populism isn’t an ideology of it self and it can swing both Left and Right. As we’ve seen in the US in the last 15 years populism has been largely on the Right. When Republican dominated Congress and the Presidency it was things that were designed to blunt populism (federalism and the arcana of Senate rules) that stymied the Right from enacting most of their agenda. The idea of the Constitution is that politics change, partisanship changes but that the views of the political minority and individual rights would still be protected. Yes that can frustrate people who want to see a lot of change fast but it also keeps those they don’t agree with from making a lot of changes they might not want to see.
Lol. It’s either going to be Trump or Biden. I sure don’t want either but it’s Biden easily for me if I have to pick. Christian nationalism and populism will make the US resemble the Middle East.
So, Harris? Similar to Nate, the argument is that it's too big of a gamble, relying on current polls but actually ignoring them and history. February 2024 National Poll: Biden Performs Strongest Against Trump among Prominent Democrats - Emerson Polling (emersoncollegepolling.com)
I’m not sure what the Biden elite is? People who want the US to stay on NATO? The financial elite, military industrial complex and cultural elites existed and did well under both Trump and Biden. While Ukraine and Israel give more ammunition (pun intended) to the MIC it was not like defense spending was drastically cut under Trump. At the same time Trump’s tax cuts greatly benefitted the wealthy elite and the revamping of NAFTA into the USMCA benefitted globalization elites. The reality of Trump Populism like other Trump brands is fairly hollow. It’s far more about the perception of grievance and cultural grievances than it is about addressing economic inequalities.
I've asked @B-Bob @rocketsjudoka the same question and they've never responded to me. Show me any polling that shows other dems are out performing biden? If bidens age is truly the issue then Whitmer, Newsom should be running much further ahead of biden but every poll shows them running substantially behind Biden? We have 5+ different polls and somehow they run 4-7 points behind Biden in every poll? In the Nevada primary a "none of the above" option was clearly listed on the ballot yet somehow biden got 90% of the vote. Please show us a single data point that shows other dems who are younger that are running ahead of biden
Not that I owe you any response, ever, to anything you post, but LOL, what are you talking about? You asked me "So, Harris?" like the post you quoted? What kind of question is that even? Well, here's your answer: I'll pontificate on Harris, who used to be my DA and then my state something something and then my senator. Legislature was a great spot for her. Too much ambition though and should not have tried executive branch. Has just not the right persona to be running for big executive offices, unfortunately, or leading large groups of people, IMHO. There, have I answered "So, Harris?" to your satisfaction? Or were you perhaps talking about my college friend Harris who hailed from Cleveland, OH? But anyway, the horse is out of the barn. Nate Silver or anyone else wringing their hands about Biden is about 12+ months too late to do anything about it or influence anyone. Not that Nate Silver has influenced anyone in, like, a decade or so.
The issues is primaries make canidates turn more partisan aka more lefty which would turn off voters. If we had a democratic primary the main issue would be gaza/Israel. Having a brokered convention would mean canidates would be forced to take more lefty positions which would destroy the canidate in a general election. Trump is winning in polls cuz of folks hate inflation and high interest rates. Please point me to evidence that bidens age is a issue at the ballot. Democrats need to fix the border + economy more than they worry about bidens age. You can't find me a single data point that shows younger dems would do better than biden. The issue is economy + border. Americans are pragmatic people
There's been around 10 polls that all show Newsom + Whitmer + Harris poll 5-7 points behind Biden. There no democrat that polls better than biden. If the matchup was haley vs Biden then I tend to agree that biden loses in a landslide I don't think the age issue matters when it's trump. Trump is hardly cracking 60% in republican primaries in the deep south. The primaries show that trump has huge weakness in the suburbs. Haley won in the SC suburbs. Again I wish Biden nd trump both disappear from the face of the planet. The sad reality is they're going be the nominees in 2024 and age won't be as big of a issue. Biden will swim or sink depending on the economy. Nobody gives a **** about trumps indictments or bidens age. It'll be the economy
Of course, this is before spending a billion dollars to change these numbers. I'm still on the Biden bus, but people make way too much rhetorical use of political polls. If Whitmer actually was a candidate and was spending ad dollars, doing rallies, and having debates, she would have a much different number. I think these polls are not appropriate to use the way people do.
