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Facts regarding Ryan Anderson's 3pt Shooting

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by heypartner, Sep 16, 2017.

  1. daywalker02

    daywalker02 Member

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    Color blind of some sorts?
     
  2. RockWest

    RockWest Contributing Member

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    Therefore they want to pay 60M to Ryan?
     
  3. vlaurelio

    vlaurelio Contributing Member

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    Well actually getting to the playoffs is already a big improvement for them.

    40M 2 years at most coz ryan will be a valuable expiring on his 3rd year

    So its
    40M 2 yrs for a solid vet stretch pf role player with their youth movement
    Plus picks

    Vs

    60M 2 years disgruntled melo
     
  4. pippendagimp

    pippendagimp Member

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    wouldn't that make melo an even more valuable expiring next year then? $40M vs $30M + 1 year earlier emancipation?
     
  5. RockWest

    RockWest Contributing Member

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    Yup it's a downgrade in terms of expiring contract.
     
  6. heypartner

    heypartner Contributing Member

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    How does someone with a No Trade Clause become a "valuable expiring contract." Expiring contracts are only called "valuable" because they are tradeable (usually mid-season) to teams looking for capspace, where otherwise they'd be considered bad value contracts.

    That doesn't work unless Melo expands his list vs just staying in his hometown NYC.
     
    #46 heypartner, Sep 17, 2017
    Last edited: Sep 17, 2017
  7. chenjy9

    chenjy9 Numbers Don't Lie
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    You are forgetting about his NTC.
     
    vlaurelio likes this.
  8. SirIvyLeague

    SirIvyLeague Member

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    It's irrelevant because we're not talking about Bev for 5 ml, EG for 13mil. Heck Harden was the worst and he's worth more.

    It's the fact he's the price of eg & Bev, he's being paid to be that help. And he consistently chokes, we need him to step up in these situations overall. Not just looking at G6 only. And he's honestly not that guy.
     
  9. SirIvyLeague

    SirIvyLeague Member

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    It's valuable, because he can be re-signed to accommodate another star without impacting his bird rights. Not because he can(not) be re traded for cash out.
     
  10. roslolian

    roslolian Member

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    I think I've said all I need to say about this guy. However my main issue with Anderson is how inconsistent he is. Yes technically his 3pt FG% for the year sits at 40% but he doesn't shoot 40% every game. Just like his home/away splits show Anderson will give you a great game of 18 pts a night at 6/8 fgs one game, then he'll give you 4 pts on 18% shooting or something the next one. His play is like what a backup/X-factor would be, you are supposed to give him like 5 mins on the court and then if he's hot you ride him to a victory and if he's not you nail his ass to the bench. The problem with that is prior to Cp3 coming he was actually the 2nd highest paid dude on the team. And he is strictly a spot shooter, it's a joke that 2nd guy is totally inconsistent at the one thing he is supposed to do well. You can find other stretch PFs making a fraction of what Anderson does like Ppat and Frye, and while they can't hit the absolute high that Anderson does they also don't hit the absolute trash tier play that Anderson is capable of.

    You just can't a have a guy that inconsistent be a core part of your team, he's not good enough for the team to play the "live by Anderson and die by Anderson" game. As a coach you don't like guys who are inconsistent because it affects your strategy, for example if all week you implemented plays that freed Anderson because he shot like a god the past couple of games, then when they play he starts playing like trash you just ended up wasting your entire game plan. It's not like other teams don't have scouts and they can't track Anderson's performance, in the playoffs the Spurs exposed Anderson time and time again, to the point MDA nailed his ass to the bench and the team just lost 18M in salary just like that.

    I'm willing to give him a second chance this year, but to be honest it's telling that after the Rox spent years trying to get the guy, after a full season of Anderson's Jekyll and Hyde performance they are trying to dump him like a hot potato to any team willing to take him.
     
    saleem likes this.
  11. baubo

    baubo Member

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    This is true of any 3 point shooter. You can go back and look at Ray Allen or Curry or any other top 3pt shooters in history and go through their game logs. They're all just like Anderson, "inconsistent" game to game.

    3 point shooting by nature is inconsistent on a game level due to its inherent lower % of makes and lower number of attempts. If you create a random number generator and set 3pt% at 40% and divide by sets of 7s (Anderson's per-game 3pt attempt average) you'll get a lot of 18%s and 70%s in those sample. And a Random Number Generator is as unbiased a source of "consistency" as you can get, since it presumes every single shot has the same chance to go in.
     
  12. topfive

    topfive CF OG

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    FIFY
     
  13. daywalker02

    daywalker02 Member

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    Tim Allen does solid Home Improvement, does he not?
     
    Easy likes this.
  14. vlaurelio

    vlaurelio Contributing Member

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    someone already pointed out Melo's NTC
     
  15. pippendagimp

    pippendagimp Member

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    not valuable per se, but as i posted...more valuable than anderson's....comparatively speaking

    if we are going to assume that melo will still refuse to waive his NTC for anyone else even after another full year wasting away on the knicks, then it's pretty fair to also assume anderson gets injured yet again in the next couple years and would just end up untradeable anyways
     
  16. heypartner

    heypartner Contributing Member

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    To quantify @baubo's point wrt 40%+ shooters who shoot at big volume:

    Last year Ryan Anderson had 28 games out of 71 shooting 33% or less (I discarded an 0-1 injury game where he played only 9 minutes)...taking 11.5 3s per 100 possessions

    In Ray Allen's biggest volume shooting year (2006 in his prime), he also had 28 games shooting 33% or less, but out of 77. (I also discarded an injury game where he played 9 minutes). Taking 11.3 per 100

    Last year Klay Thompson had 30 games out of 78 shooting 33% or less. Taking 11.8 per 100
     
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  17. saleem

    saleem Contributing Member

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    Best post of this thread.
     
  18. Realjad

    Realjad Contributing Member

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    You're talking about other players that can do multiple things on the court if their shot isn't falling.

    You can argue that those are reasons why they are elite players and Andersons not, but if Anderson can't shoot a higher percent then he is a liability and detrimental to the team. It's a terrible contract Morey gave out, but thats the truth. Anderson hurts the team unless he can shoot vastly better. Should be end of story here, you don't really need to waste your time researching to refute a futile argument.

    Anderson barely breaks a swet playing, is usually the last man up the court and rarely hustles. If this debate was worth the time, which it isn't, I'd love to see Ray Allens and Thompsons 3pt% when they haven't exhausted themselves in other aspects of the game with the intangibles they bring.
     
    #58 Realjad, Sep 17, 2017
    Last edited: Sep 17, 2017
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  19. heypartner

    heypartner Contributing Member

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    Yes, I know. And you know I was only trying to illustrate the amt of off-nights for very good, high-volume shooters.

    Here's JJ Redick last year ... a 43% shooter
    35 games 33% or less out of 78, on 10.6 3pt shots per 100 and 6/gm

    Here's Peja as a 30yr 44% 3pt shooter
    30 games 33% or less out of 77, on 10.3 3s per 100 possessions (and 6.8/gm)

    Here is Chuck Person as a 30yr 41% 3pt shooter
    31 games 33% or less out of 79, on 11.2 3s per 100 (and 5.8/gm)

    Stephen Curry last year had 32 out of 79 bad shooting nights.

    ---------------------------
    Ryan is a role-player, who does an incredible job of spreading the floor (even when he's not "on"), but probably shouldn't even get 30mpg, because he does nothing else but shoot and spread the floor. I never said he was anywhere close to being a HOFer like Ray Allen or a Top 30 player like Klay. (btw: what does Klay do other than shoot? Not really all that much.)

    But the exercise is to show how pretty much ALL of the best high-volume shooters, also have the same amount of off nights. It's just an exercise in showing that 40% doesn't mean you shoot that every game.

    We should all know that.
     
    #59 heypartner, Sep 17, 2017
    Last edited: Sep 17, 2017
    BigMaloe likes this.
  20. chenjy9

    chenjy9 Numbers Don't Lie
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    It is relevant because all three were paid what the market demanded at the time. You are just upset that his contract came back to bite us due to the cap not increasing as much as initially expected and that is something very stupid to be mad at Anderson about.

    Also, he does not consistently choke. You are acting like he shoots poorly consistently and he simply does not. In fact, he shoots well far more often than not, which is how he ended up averaging 40% for the season. Don't let his poor playoff performance against OKC and a couple of lousy games against a team as good at defense as the Spurs cloud your judgment on the fact that he had some great games and hit some great shots for us during the season.

    He has stepped up consistently for a role player and has been what was advertised; a sharp shooting stretch 4 with minimal defensive ability, mediocre rebounding ability, and very little athleticism. Everything you and people like you are complaining about is not new. We knew all that when Morey chose to sign him because his ability to stretch the floor greatly benefits both Harden and MDA.

    Again, if you want to get pissed at someone, how about getting pissed at Dwight for putting us in a situation where we could only chase after guys like Anderson.

    No shooter shoots their % every game. They are humans, not robots. They will have slumps and they will get hot. Steve Kerr, arguably the best shooter in NBA history, had 21 games where he shot 33% or less and 10 games shooting 0% during his best season from downtown. In his second best shooting season, he had 31 games where he shot 33% or less and 25 games shooting 0%. Ray Allen had 28 games in one of his best shooting seasons where he shot 33% or less, with 18 of them at 25% or less. The same applied for Curry and Klay as well. Shooters are streaky.

    You are confusing contract amount and talent. Things like position, skillset demand, and time of signing all greatly inflate or deflate what sort of contract a player receives. Things like how well or poor we did in the previous season also greatly affects it. How much he gets paid does not change the fact that we did not sign him as a star. We signed him as a stretch 4 role player that could play off Harden, because T-Jones had failed in that role and D-Mo hurt his back before discovering he had rights. Face it, we had slim pickings at the time and signed the best players we could for Harden and MDA in a rebound season.

    Our team did not live or die by Anderson, not in the slightest. I have zero clue where this misconception is coming from. We live and died by Harden or our COLLECTION of shooters getting hot/cold. Our team was built to weather 1-2 shooters getting cold, because that's what the high variance of a 3pt shooting team means. Anderson is a role player, not a secondary star. He performed as how I expected a role player to perform. If you were expected more than that, you really should temper your expectations.

    If your definition of being nailed to the bench was 30 minutes a game, then fine, he was nailed to the bench. He had good series against the Spurs for the most part until they started running him off the line and at that point, it was up to Harden or MDA to adapt. The failure for us to adapt to their shift in defensive approach along with Nene's devastating and extremely underrated injury was what doomed us, not Ryno.
     
    BigMaloe likes this.

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