Facebook as the new AOL - Welcome to the Revenge of '90s Internet

some nice parallels there like you said but i dont see facebook going away as quickly as AOL did.

i do think there will be a tech APP bubble much like the dot-com bubble.

 

AOL died suddenly because of an AOL emerging technology, DSL.

Facebook is already starting to struggle.

 

Myspace says hi.

 

Of course Facebook has already peaked. I don't know a single person under 25 who admits to using the site. For youths the site is considered weird and for "old people".

 

Thinking about this and I just realized I don't really know anyone under 25.

 

I knew I read this article before, then noticed the date....

if there wasn't a iMac in this pic, you probably wouldn't have known what year it was.....

 

Not sure if joking, everyone I know around my age (25) has a Facebook account, I'd guess 95% at my University and of my old school comrades have one as well.

 

To add: All the younger siblings of my friends have an account, roughly from ages 12-20. So that and my other post makes me believe that 95% of the people I know from age 25-12 have a FB account, it's far from out of fashion.

 

All products have a life cycle, the only difference is how long it spends in each phase. With that being said, I just don't see facebook falling off the map as quickly as AOL or myspace.

 

AsianAvenue says whatup

 

You are not based in USA, correct? I know in the USA, that young people aren't using FB as much anymore. Listen to internet marketing and social media guru Gary Vaynerchuk. He talks about how the young people of America use Instagram, Snapchat, Vine and these newer platforms at a much higher rate than FB. He's close to making a billion dollars following these ideas. The broad concept is FB use is still prevalent but it's dying off slowly with the kids. This demographic really matters because they are the soon to be the target consumer and taste makers in society.


Look at the trends in social media market share from this Piper Jaffray October 2015 report:



http://blogs.wsj.com/digits/2015/10...fer-instagram-snapchat-among-social-networks/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-intersect/wp/2014/10/08/teens-are-officially-over-facebook/

 

^ FB owns Instagram though so from a company valuation perspective they are ok. They make smart acquisitions even if they seem overpriced at the time. They don't all work out, and some might take longer to bring reward (I suspect Oculus ... VR is just hard) .... But if FB can buy their way to stay the leader of social regardless of which product of theirs is most heavily used, they should be ok.

Social communication will be a thing always. The threat from Snapchat, Twitter, and other third parties is real, but on a global scale certainly puts them in far far far second place.

Interestingly, Slack might become the second biggest "social"'player if it truly can displace email in the workplace. Personally, I still prefer email... But I'm "old"

 

Double post... But keep in mind FB owns Instagram, WhatsApp and Oculus in addition to their main product.

They could easily do something like buy Pinterest or some other up and comer to solidify their position.

They tried with Snapchat but the founder there is one of the rare few who wasn't tempted by the huge monetization presented to him. Yes, Snapchat has gone on to increase its valuation meaningfully... But if I'm wondering which product is in more dangerous territory, FB or Snapchat, it's Snapchat. Not because they aren't loved and used by millions. But because they haven't proven to have a leadership team at the helm that can monetize those users effectively despite what appears to be multiple legitimate efforts to do so.