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Expectations for Green's second year?

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by fchowd0311, Apr 4, 2022.

  1. MrButtocks

    MrButtocks Contributing Member

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    Green has made a few nice passes out of the PNR but they are sporadic. I actually want him to be a primary ballhandler someday. If he played like Dwyane Wade with a three point shot I'd be ecstatic. There's nothing wrong with being more scoring focused like a Zach Lavine, but I'd hope that Green can control the game in multiple ways.
     
    xaos likes this.
  2. Believe It!

    Believe It! Member

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    If Silas remains with the same schemes or lack there of, can safely say 21/4/3. With the right system...

    This off season should be a good one.

    Should be.
     
    persian hoopa likes this.
  3. Believe It!

    Believe It! Member

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    100%
     
  4. jiggyfly

    jiggyfly Member

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    This.

    It's amazing how many people took that comment as a negative.

    They just want Green to be a jacker and get his ppg up.
     
    javal_lon likes this.
  5. HI Mana

    HI Mana Member

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    I found the following analysis of how much players improve based on their age pretty fascinating. Full disclosure, I did not vet the author's method or the underlying stats, so this could definitely be fake news, and PER is definitely an imperfect stat when it comes to judging impact on the court.

    The Asset of Age

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    Interestingly, this would indicate that the average improvement for a 19 year old player who has managed to qualify for PER (1500 minutes played) is about 14% in their second year, and the average expected PER for their age 20 season is right around 15.5. 15.5 PER is a pretty darn good player, but pretty bad if you're the team leader. All-Star Starter Andrew Wiggins has been a 15.3 PER player in his 3 years in Golden State. Second year Giannis was at 14.8 PER, after being at 10.8 as a 19-year-old rookie.

    Just for reference, most people consider this rookie class to be historically great, especially at the top. Here is the PER for the top rookies, along with their first season ages (age as of Feb 1 of the season they are playing).

    Cunningham: PER 13.3, Age 20
    Green: PER 12.2, Age 19
    Mobley: PER 15.8, Age 20
    Barnes: PER 16.4, Age 20
    Suggs: PER 8.7, Age 20
    Giddey: PER 13.3, Age 19
    Kuminga, PER 14.7, Age 19
    Sengun: PER 16.1, Age 19


    There are definitely some flaws to this analysis. A 1500 minute played threshold means that you bias the average up, because true Anthony Bennett/Darko-level busts get filtered out of the data set (indeed, Sengun, Suggs, and Kuminga are very unlikely to qualify). Also, if Jalen Green had been born 10 days earlier on January 31st, 2002, this would be his age 20 season instead, and he'd go from being well within the average distribution for 19-year-olds to outside of the 25-75% average for 20-year-olds.

    To close, the #1 comp for Jalen Green pre-draft was probably Bradley Beal, who entered the league at 19, and had his peak PER (23.2) at 26.

    The #2 comp for Jalen Green was probably Zach LaVine, who entered the league at 19, and had his peak PER (21.5) at 25.

    This year, Zach LaVine averages 18 FGA and 6 FTA per game. Last night, Jalen Green had 18 FGA and 6 FTA, and Silas called it a "normal night".
     
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  6. JayGoogle

    JayGoogle Member

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    I don't know...but he's clearly a guy whose potential is whatever he wants it to be. So that's exciting at least.
     
    conquistador#11 and xaos like this.
  7. i3artow i3aller

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  8. RasaqBoi

    RasaqBoi Member

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  9. groovemachine

    groovemachine Member

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    20 ppg is a reasonable expectation, averaging 20/5/5 is highly unlikely.
     
  10. Astrodome

    Astrodome Member
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    I expect him to have the biggest +/- improvement in the history of the stat.
     
  11. Rocketeer

    Rocketeer Contributing Member

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    Those are lofty expectations for a 20 yr old 2nd year player. I'm going to predict a 20/4/3 stat line but I believe he'll get there eventually. There are currently only 15 players in the league that avg at least 20/5/5:
    Antetokounmpo
    Butler
    Curry
    Durant
    George
    Harden
    James
    Middleton
    Randle
    Jokic
    Ingram
    Siakam
    Murray
    Doncic
    Morant
     
    Lloyd Estacio and groovemachine like this.
  12. CCorn

    CCorn Member

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    Mvp and finals mvp
     
  13. Xopher

    Xopher Member

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    Whatever is better than Harden's 2nd season. Wait he is at that now....um 22/5/5 is good with me depending on the roster makeup
     
  14. Stephen_A

    Stephen_A Member

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    Luka is a boring ass player that stole Harden moves like Elvis stole music
     
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  15. Stephen_A

    Stephen_A Member

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    Yeah the dude is on a different level. I saw the look in his eyes in one of the recent games just like the great ones. The game will slow down even more next year as he hones his skills with more experience and patience.
     
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  16. DatRocketFan

    DatRocketFan Member

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    just a reminder he would only b 20 years old putting up numbers.
     
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  17. groovemachine

    groovemachine Member

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    Your post is spot on, 20/4/3 would be a helluva sophomore effort. The rebounds and assist might get there in year 3, but he’s showing now he’s ready to be an elite scorer.
     
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  18. ApacheWarrior

    ApacheWarrior Member

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    Depends on spacing. Makes all the difference in the world as evidence by first
    18 games of season to after first 18 games of season.
    ___________________________________________________
    My facilitators of: 1) Jalen Green, 2) Porter Jr, 3) Josh Christopher, 4) Sengun, 5) Wood
    (add possibly Jabari, Chet, Banchero, or Ivey)

    Screens set by: Sengun, Wood, Garuba, ?Bruno?
    (add possibly Jabari, Chet, or Banchero)

    With space provided by: Mathews, Jalen Green, Porter Jr, Wood, (give me more)
    (add possibly Jabari, Chet, Banchero, or Ivey)
    ________________________
    Give me Jabari Smith or Chet or Keegan Murray or Mathurin.....even Brady Manek

    Those facilitators are going to destroy teams! Carve them up!
    *Jalen can average 28 points, 4 rebs, 3.5 asts, 1.8 TOV's, 39.4 (3P%).
    __________________
    Defense will give up 121 pts but the offense will average 125 points
    *(side note disclaimer: if Tate, Sengun, Kenyon improve their 3-pt shooting)
     
    #78 ApacheWarrior, Apr 4, 2022
    Last edited: Apr 4, 2022
  19. coachbadlee

    coachbadlee Member

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    I think Chet and Wood would make a great twin tower duo.
     
  20. coachbadlee

    coachbadlee Member

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    If he can keep playing at this pace, I'll give him 27-6-4.
     

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