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Evaluating the full 15-man roster, no Baxter, no NVE, probably no splash

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Desert Scar, Aug 4, 2005.

  1. AroundTheWorld

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    How would the other team get cash out of a deal where we send them players and they send us a draft pick?
     
  2. Nero

    Nero Member

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    Expiring contracts. That means next offseason, they would have the money off the books. I am thinking some team like Golden State, or Toronto, Bobcats, somebody like that. Whatever team is going to be in a position to know that they are going to be 'in the big FA hunt' this next offseason. Maybe we take back some scrub we could just waive, or something.

    Not saying it's likely, I was just wondering if it was even allowable. Just seems like our expiring contract players are going to be valuable to some teams out there, and some of them may be willing to give up a future pick or two instead of current players under contract.
     
  3. Summer Song Giver

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    I'd like to stash Head in the NBDL for a few months and sign someone like Gerald Wallace to the LLE and then at the deadline trade a couple of expiring 'tracts (Spoon and Wesley) for a pg, then call Head up with the pg we get from the trade to round out the roster.
     
  4. swilkins

    swilkins Member

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    I have a feeling there will be a S&T involving Wesley and one of our bench players will be waived. Don't ask for details - It's just a hunch.
     
  5. JoeBarelyCares

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    You can't be right on this. No way Phoenix would go over the luxury tax. I doubt if the Bulls, Sonics or Heat were, too. Also, the prior two champs, Detroit and Los Angeles, didn't pay the luxury tax. Were did you get your figures?
     
  6. StupidMoniker

    StupidMoniker I lost a bet

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    You have to take back at least 75% of the salary that you send out, unless the team you are trading with has room under the cap to absorb the salaries you are sending them. The only way that a team would get cap room from taking our expiring contracts is if we take back someone from them who does not have an expiring contract. The trade you are talking about would only save the caproom used by signing a draft pick, which is less than the MLE. If you want to take on some albatross contracts like Adonal Foyle and Derek Fisher, then you might get the Warriors pick with our expiring contracts.
     
  7. Willis25

    Willis25 Member

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    I disagree with your analysis. Mooch, Ward, Spoon and Baker SHOULD be gone (one way or another) - they need the Baxters and Golvers of the world (i.e. younger players) to fill those spots to add youthful depth to this veteran team.

    Everyone in the organization knows that they have to get more athletic - and if you are going to have an undersized PF and backup guard in your 14 and 15 spots, you HAVE to take the 25 year olds over the 33 year olds
     
  8. Nero

    Nero Member

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    I see.. so it would be theoretically possible to move two of ours for maybe 1 player and maybe a pick (or picks), thereby cutting up to a max of 25% of the salaries of the players traded away. But would then that 25% saved possibly be greater than the LLE amount? Hmm. Again, not very likely, doesn't sound like, but I am just trying to think of ways we could possibly free up some roster spots short of outright cutting someone above and beyond the 'amnesty' deal.

    Oh well.. *sigh*
     
  9. NIKEstrad

    NIKEstrad Member

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    :rolleyes:

    In bold are six of the eight teams that made it to the 2nd round of the playoffs this year. The other two were Dallas and Indiana (both of which were bounced in the 2nd round).

    13. Houston Rockets $60,222,300
    14. Miami Heat $58,949,072
    15. Chicago Bulls $57,276,136
    16. Milwaukee Bucks $57,137,128
    17. New Orleans Hornets $56,572,880
    18. Golden State Warriors $54,943,724
    19. New Jersey Nets $54,729,028
    20. Detroit Pistons $54,574,980
    21. Seattle Sonics $53,821,300
    22. Washington Wizards $49,547,056
    23. Cleveland Cavaliers $49,175,272
    24. San Antonio Spurs $47,149,172
    25. Los Angeles Clippers $45,170,768
    26. Denver Nuggets $45,621,812
    27. Phoenix Suns $44,256,720
    28. Utah Jazz $43,160,808
    29. Atlanta Hawks $40,684,848
    30. Charlotte Bobcats $23,380,124

    From http://www.dfw.net/~patricia/misc/salaries05.txt

    But don't let the facts get in your way.

    Scar - Interesting analysis, but I don't agree with some of your conclusions. Van Gundy may ultimately decide against an athletic 2/3 type. One thing to remember from the Dallas series - were were out matched athletically on the wing, but if we matched up against them again, Swift and Howard would be playing the 4 instead of TMac. DoD reported Head played extensively at the 2 in the summer leagues, which could hint how JVG plans to use him at least initially. Signing Van Exel seems to be a strong possibility right now, and all it means is that Sura would play a lot more SG.

    Also, don't rule out just straight up waiving players or buyouts. If we determine Baxter may be useful, and Baker will be the Baker we saw at the end of last year, we may very well waive both Spoon and Baker which would open up a Baxter signing plus using the LLE (or a spot for Glover).
     
  10. Nero

    Nero Member

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    Out of curiosity, how come there has not been a lot of talk about Damon Jones?

    Local guy, has played here before, has really showed he can hit his shots if we were considering a S&T for DS, surely we could be exploring a S&T for Jones..

    What's the knock on him, that there has been virtually no peep about maybe bringing him back home?
     
  11. Deckard

    Deckard Blade Runner
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    I think most assume he's unattainable. I have.
     
  12. Possum

    Possum Member

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    Instead of signing Deke for 4 mill why not sign D Jones. Then sign a backup center for the min? Just a thought.
     
  13. NIKEstrad

    NIKEstrad Member

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    Doesn't work like that. We can resign Deke for 4 mill because he's our own free agent.

    Jones supposedly turned down an offer from us last year, so I doubt he'd take us for around the same money coming off such a good year. He probably wants and deserves some financial security - he's been playing for minimum type dollars up until last year. Sign and trade options are limited because Jones doesn't have Bird Rights with Miami - and after strapping themselves into some serious contracts, I would doubt Miami wants to take anything back. If Jones gets an offer anywhere near MLE value elsewhere, he probably will (and should) take it.
     
  14. Desert Scar

    Desert Scar Member

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    Actually we have to waive two guys to make room for for another free agent guard plus Baxter. Resigning Deke would fill our 15 spots. I would like to add Baxter too, but it is only probable if Spoon is waived for the lux tax thing plus Ward waived as well.



    James is a proven NBA player, Head or Glover are not. We wouldn't give up our only dependable guard with athleticism because some flyers might come through. Also, if James has a fine year, it is true he will opt out. But we will have his Early Bird Rights, a major leg up in FA. So even if he does perform well and opt out, doesn't mean he won't return (think of the Damon Jones situation this year). Same is an excellent 6th or 7th man who might be around a lot time.

    The only way we trade James is if we can get at least an equally athletic, bigger, better guard--otherwise we lose our one guard who does athletically match-up with most of his NBA competition. I have not heard any reasonable suggestions for who we might get for him (and say plus a draft pick) who would make more contrubutions than Mike James.

    I think these are the two likely choices, I rather cut Baker, but it will depend on lux tax projections. If cutting Spoon allows us to also cut Ward, thus room for Baxter and another FA (NVE, Glover, Hansen, Kittles, Spree, Dermarr, Hoston)--that makes a lot of sense.

    I have changed course a little on NVE.

    I would sure rather pay NVE for a 1 year vet min however (1.16mil). Then the league account picks up some of the contract plus he only counts like 800K towards the lux tax calculation. This would make it a lot easier to cut Ward and plug in NVE in his slot. That said, if he demands the full LLE (1.67mil), I am thinking it still might not be a bad idea. He still is fairly productive for an LLE signing, so I would not be completely against it.

    I will say, bringing in NVE does not mean the end of Mike James however. James matches up much better defensively versus most other opponents than any other Rocket guard, and definetly more than than NVE. What NVE would allow for is Sura to play more 2, or even 3, as NVE/James can handle most PG duties. So while NVE is not ideal--he doesn't make us more athletic or bigger, he does give the roster more flexibility and is productive for LLE type money. In sum, I sign him for the vet min tomorrow, but if he is holding out for the LLE I might hold off--and this may very well be where we are at. The extra 500K NVE personally gets in a LLE over the vet min (see above) I think would costs the Rockets/Les one million+ along with of course the flexibility to use the LLE for a guy (probably big 2/3) who addresses more of our needs. Just sign him for the vet min and assure him a future front office/ organizational position or something rather than sign him with the LLE.

    I agree, it is unlikely we trade Sura or James. It would take a sure fire major upgrade in a player we receive, and why would another team want to do that just for James or Sura and a late 1st rounder.

    Wesley (bigger expiring contract and also relatively usefull player) plus a pick is more plausible from the Rockets end, and another team's perspective. Another team could drop a 6.3 mil contract in exchange for him alone, with Mooch or Baker we are over 10 mil we can take.

    The NDBL doesn't work this way. Head is signed and part of our 15 person roster whether active or inactive. He is just considered inactive while in the NDBL. Same problem with Jayson Williams, we can't sign him and stow him away in the NDBL without giving up a roster spot we may need. It is also why it is better to have Spanoulis and Badiane in Europe, we have their rights but they are not under contract and taking a roster spot. With 4-5 expiring contracts this year, next year we will be in a much better position to send players to the NDBL.

    The Heat and Cavs are competing for him. He is almost assuredly going to get between 3-4 mil per year to start, which we can't compete with as we used our MLE (rightfully) on Swift. All we have to offer other teams FAs are the vet min or a single LLE contract for up to about 1 year/1.7mil or 2 years/3.5mil.

    If we resign Deke, we will have to waive 1 guy (probably Spoon or Baker with the 1 time lux tax provision) just to make use our LEE. We would have to waive 2 guys (add Ward in there) to use our LLE plus another min (Baxter or Glover). I can't fathum we will waive three players with expiring contracts just add two more vet min players (Glover and Baxter), costing about 800K each plus more if in lux tax land. I'd like to add Glover and Baxter in theory, I just think it is very remote both will be added, I think we decided Bowen was more important than one if not both. The only likely way is if 2-1 trade occures prior to the season, something like James or Wesley + another expiring contract + picks for one clearly superior player who is at a reasonable contract. I am sure we will be oppertunistic if the situation presents itself, but I doubt we walk into somthing like this.

    SJC, I have not heard that name in a long, long time. Never liked that guy, too obtuse and wordy;)
     
  15. Desert Scar

    Desert Scar Member

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    Miami can offer him 3mil with 10.5 raises (up to 6 years) without breaking up their MLE (assuming the new CBA has similar rules for non-qualifying free agents, last year x 1.2, I think it is the same). Supposedly Cleveland has 3.8 mil under the cap, so they can sign him to 3.8mil with 8% raises.

    If I am Miami I don't let him go. I'd try a 6 year 22.5 mil deal if needed. Cleve can't beat it by much, 5 years 22 mil is the best they can do. Miami can always trump this using their MLE, which they may be keeping open for Finley.

    Overall, Miami has the upper hand. I think it would be a major mistake to let Jones go, I think he makes a better starter for that team than Jason Williams. But if Miami thinks they are overpaying or can land Finley by not using their MLE, I can understand.
     
  16. pippendagimp

    pippendagimp Member

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    Wow, I did not realize so many teams were still below $60M in payroll....especially the Pistons....my mistake. However, I am still having difficulty believing the payroll figures from this chick Patricia b/c the lux tax range threshold for 04-05 had been expected to come in at $56M-$59M.....which would mean that according to Patricia's payroll figures, the Rockets would have been liable for lux tax last season. And we all already know that Le$ would not have let such a thing occur. So maybe one of our more knowledgable posters (aelliot, GATER, etc) could help explain this discrepancy...
     
  17. AroundTheWorld

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    What am I, chopped liver? :(

    Just being curious here :).
     

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