Come on, Bima. Don't be so sensitive on Daryl's behalf. I'm a huge fan of his, and am merely pointing at what may turn out to be a mistake on his part. A minor one in the grand scheme of things, but a mistake, never the less, if Casspi doesn't show us a different game come training camp and pre-season. No big deal, but I'm surprised at just how ineffective Casspi has been playing at that level this summer. I would love for Casspi to suddenly play like gang busters in Houston. We'll see.
So, BimaThug: If Gal Mekel plays a substantial role for the Mavs, will it change your feelings about them?
I'm honestly not trying to come off as overly sensitive/defensive of Morey. I'm simply trying to apply LOGIC to this situation. If Casspi sucks it up in training camp and is grossly outplayed by guys like Williams and Covington, then the Rockets can just cut him and eat the $947,907 that he is guaranteed. The only person on the planet Earth who should be upset about that is Les Alexander. What am I missing here? That is, other than this BBS's obsession with every new player acquisition the Rockets make to the point where that acquisition flopping is inflated to amount to some hyperbolic catastrophe? (Not referring to you specifically, Deckard.) About the Mavs? Or about Casspi and Mekel? If it's the Mavs, it probably wouldn't change much in my mind. I view the Mavs as a fringe playoff contender. I will not rule them out as a playoff team, since you can't count out any team with Dirk Nowitzki and Rick Carlisle. If it's the two Israeli players, then it still wouldn't change my view of either player. Both seem like they at least belong on an NBA bench as far as I can tell. How far down that bench they belong remains to be seen.
Not so much about your evaluation of the Mavs win totals, but more about your personal antagonism toward the Mavs. Would you find yourself cheering for Dallas just a bit?
I think you are using the term "mistake" differently from others. You are looking at it where every move is a calculated risk. And in terms of risks, Casspi would basically be zero. That is, him not working out doesn't cost the Rockets much of anything. However, that still means he's a "mistake" in the sense that the Rockets mis-judged him. The Rockets scouting department were obviously high on him being a contributor. Among the minimum salaried FA signings, the Rockets went after him quickly and decisively over likely many other potential FAs. If he sucks, it may show a flaw in the Rockets player scouting system. This isn't an unknown college player that you take on potential. Rockets have tons of NBA tape on the guy. And our front office should be expected to make a good judgement on his abilities. Overall though, I would never bother with using Euro-cup production with how he'd fit with the Rockets. he can go 0-10 every game for all I care.
Ah, I see. As the husband of a Mavs fan, my animosity towards the Mavs is relatively muted compared to other hard-core Rockets fans. Having an Israeli "star" on the Mavs would probably make me like them slightly more. But it's not like I started loving the Lakers when they drafted Jordan Farmar. Was never a Kings or Cavs fan because of Casspi. Fair enough. I can see how that might be what Deckard was getting at all along. A "mistake" is a relative term.
I don't think the Rockets will likely need to re-think their scouting if Casspi doesn't turn out to be a contributor. The Rockets may have gone after him before certain other minimum wage guys, but it doesn't mean that they think of him as a certain, or even likely, rotation contributor. Their player evaluation system may say that Casspi has only a 25% chance of being a rotation contributor, but it would still make sense to sign him because 25% is better odds than you can get on all of the other free agent SF/PF available at his price. In fact, while I don't know the exact %s, the Rockets most likely view player in such probablistic terms given their analytical and statistical orientation. Under such circumstances, if Casspi fails, it does not contradict their evaluation of him and is no cause for them to re-think their methods any more than they would rethink their methods if Casspi becomes a rotation player.
I agree when it comes to draft picks, because you're predicting future potential based on limited data. But after a few years in the NBA, this shouldn't be like flipping a coin anymore. The distance between ceiling and floor should be much lower. So in that sense, if Casspi simply flat out sucks, then there's something wrong. Perhaps they overestimate his 3 pointer a bit. Perhaps his defense is not as good. Perhaps he makes more stupid plays than you'd like. But there's no reason why he should flat out suck... at least by Rockets standard. That said, the Rockets under Morey have been VERY good in judging more proven talent. Certainly much less misses than they do with 14/16th picks.
I would not be too worried about Casspi based on the EuroBasket. Last year Casspi played a very good tournament and it did not buy him anything in Cleveland. Casspi appears to be totally uninterested in the games. In general he doesn't have a game when the team is playing at walking pace. He seems to be most interested in not getting injured. Can't blame him by the way. If Israel by a lucky turn continues, it does not have basically any realistic expectations for a good result in the continuation. When he comes back to Houston he will bleed on the court because he knows that it will be his moment of truth. Why do I think so? He obviously wants to make it in the NBA and not because of the money. Otherwise he would have signed a much better deal in Europe and would have received much more playing time. I'm not really worried about Morey and his judgement. Casspi can contribute from the bench even if he is not playing well. Casspi's cost/benefit ratio was just perfect for Morey and he'll get his moneys worth. The question in my mind is: Will Casspi exceed the expectations (which are fairly low)? If he does, Morey will be considered a genius (he probably is even without Casspi). If he does not, nobody will even think about it.
Everything in life can be valued by risk/reward. But exactly what do the Rockets need from all of those minimum contract guys they signed? Just for 1 or 2 of them to get rotation minutes. That is all they need out of the 4 contracts. Given what the Rockets look for in non-centers - 3 point shooting and passable defense - Caspi is a good bet.
Morey has said that outside the stars, fit matters a lot. While judging NBA players is better than judging draft picks, there is still error in judging NBA talent that will sign minimum deals. I suspect the Rockets see Casspi as a guy with little ability to create, but he could fill the role of a corner 3 point shooter in small ball lineups. The Rockets have a lot of guys in that could be in rotation. It is not a big failure if Casspi doesn't pan out. Not likely a huge win if he does either. I do think that the Rockets more than any other team believe in competition. The Rockets put their faith in the shotgun method more than they do in individual non-stars producing.
can you give examples of other FA's who you think have better chance of contributing compared to Casspi and are available for $947,907 at the time Casspi was signed?
MINIMUM WAGE free agents are a lot more like 2nd round draft picks than they are like free agents that you spend substantial resource on. If Dwight Howard sucks, then it's time to think about your player evaluation. If Asik sucks, it may be time to think about your player evaluation. If Monta Ellis sucks for Dallas, then it may be time to rethink your player evaluation. These are guys you have to have some confidence in before committing dollars in them. There is no 100% in life but we need at least 90% confidence for that kind of cash and capspace committment. Casspi, Aaron Brooks, Ronnie Brewer, Reggie Williams? Not so much. We are talking about guys that struggled last season by almost all measurements. You are never gonna get 90% or even 60% confidence that this kind of MINIMUM WAGE guy will be a regular rotation contributor. When you are bottom feeding in the free agent market, much like when you are drafting in the 2nd round, you are just looking for somebody who has a chance.
Lithuania almost got eliminated from the tournament by Bosnia & Herzegovina today. Pretty crazy. Lots of upsets or, maybe better put, lots of unexpected parity this EuroBasket. As far as Casspi goes, I look at it like this: The Rockets bet on Casspi. They liked their odds, but knew he might not make team or contribute much even if he does make the team. If they end up waiving Casspi or Casspi stinks it up, his signing will turn out to be a failure, as it will cost Les ~$1M for an unproductive player. Still it's not like the Rockets put a great deal of money betting on Casspi or somehow parlayed their Casspi bet, as he had meaningful no impact on their cap situation and waiving him of course would not change that, either. If anything, the Rockets hedged their bet, also signing Covington, Ronnie Brewer and Reggie Williams -- knowing there was a solid chance Casspi might not be of use after all, which of course, as far as I see it, is yet to be determined. What zone scheme though? Lithuania only goes zone at times. NBA man-to-man scheme aren't very different from European man schemes. Both use zone-principles to load up on the strong side. The only difference is that there is no defensive 3 seconds in FIBA play. Not sure that's a huge deal, though. D-Mo's defensive shortcoming have nothing to do with him being allowed to stay in the paint longer than 3 seconds as far as I can see it. His defensive awareness just isn't where it needs to be yet and maybe more importantly he still has poor defensive fundamentals. He still sucks closing out to shooters. Still reaches in too much. Still chooses poor angles defensively... Also, still seems to force and rush plays on offense. Obviously he's talented. And all those things can be worked upon. But I haven't seen a lot lot of improvement from 2 years ago, which is worrisome.
But it doesn't restrict our ability to make future moves. As long as Les doesn't mind (and I don't see why he would given how much he likes winning and how well some of these signings have turned out for us), it's basically playing with house money.
If the Rockets were to have just used a high 1st round draft pick on Casspi AND be in a upcoming rebuilding year, then I would say that there was some major risk involved with acquiring Casspi.... However, thats nothing close to what happened. There is almost ZERO risk other than a mere 1 million dollars of salary cap space (which doesn't really matter this year) a roster spot (which can be replaced at any time with another player), and Les Alexanders $. Casspi was never brought in to be a game changer for the Rockets. He was acquired because he has the skillset to POTENTIALLY be a nice fit among the Rockets core players. They aren't bringing him in to have the role that he has with the Isreali national team. I take Casspi (and all the other Rockets Euro players) FIBA performances with a grain of salt. Its nice to see some development from folks like Motiejunas, and fun to see what a player like Casspi is like when he's the best player on the team, but it means nothing in comparison to what they need to show the front office, & coaches in training camp & the preseason.
What do you think of Teletovic as potential stretch 4 for Rockets...look at the range of this guy(btw Bosnian announcer started crying on national TV after this 3 point ) <iframe width="640" height="360" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/B2kgJoqv1dY?feature=player_detailpage" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
