[ESPNEWS] Astros Won't Pick Up Jeff Bagwell's Option

if you'd stop mischaracterizing my posts or read them more carefully, you'd find i've done neither of those things.

i'm not saying bagwell doesn't belong in the HOF!!! i didn't say the rockets didn't deserve the championship in 1995!!!

ALL power hitters will be met with scrutiny. sorry..they just will. i'm not saying bagwell has done steriods...so there's another thing you've mischaracterized.

you don't limp to 3,000 hits. 3,000 hits is a career achievement. it doesn't matter to me how many hits he gets in his last season if, over his career, he finishes with 3,000. i promise you the national sports writers feel the same way.

 

again..i'm not saying he's done it. but the argument that there were no spikes holds no water for me. the guy was never a power hitter growing up. he certainly wasn't in the minors. he became one almost instantly in houston, when he started hitting in a huge park. there's a spike right there. is it beyond all possibility that he began using in the minors?? or in his first two seasons in the bigs???

i'm not saying he did it. i would not be surprised to find out ANY baseball player cheated, though. and i think EVERY power hitter from the 90's will be judged with scrutiny because of the steroid crap...i'm not at all suggesting that's fair.

 

It's more than steroids. The "juiceball" era was so named before the steroid scandal was even on the radar--the big offensive spike really begain in '95 and '96. Remember the arguments about whether the ball was juiced to win disenchanted fans back via increased offense? There were a lot of factors bandied about as to what caused the spike in offense in the late '90s and early '00s; I believe they all played a part of it (except the ball):
--Watered-down pitching talent due to expansion
--Bigger athletes: weightlifting regimens were vastly different and guys (even non-roiders) just had more muscle
--Was the ball juiced? (most people think not)
--The newer stadiums were a little smaller
--And last but certainly not least: the clear, the cream, and HGH

...I may have left some out. While that last item didn't appear on the radar until well into the 21st century, it casts its ugly shadow all the way back into the early 90s for sure.

 

Mad Max is saying that Bagwell will be dragged down unfairly with the rest just because he played at the same time as McGwire, Palmeiro, Bonds and the other juicers.

I do disagree with this analysis though

I know you're playing devil's advocate but a lot of players don't become power hitters until later in life. Kirby Puckett wasn't a power hitter when he came up and no-one accused him of juicing. During the ALCS one of the commentators made the point that its often easier for young players like Joe Mauer to hit great for percentage early on than power because many of them are still developing physically and still learning how to get power behind a swing. Also younger players still have a lot of speed and rely on that to get on base more than slugging. As men age we tend to slow down but can continue to add on muscle mass far into life so its easier for an older player to bulk up and swat homers than to hit bloopers and be quick enough to get on base.

 

i'm not saying it's an indicator he did it.

i'm just saying the whole "there's no spikes" argument doesn't make sense to me. it's entirely possible a guy could do steroids his entire career and you wouldn't see a spike.

 

you're absolutely right. it's not merely a steroid issue.

 

Neither was Craig Biggio, whose SLG% his first 4 years in the league is almost identical to Adam Everett's. He started hitting for power about age 27, Bagwell started around age 25-26. Carlos Beltran didn't put up a .500+ SLG season until he was 25, in his 7th year of pro ball & 3rd in the majors. Happens to a lot of players as they mature physically.

 

Those are the ages they began steroids

Spoiler

Jk

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=crasnick_jerry&id=2645544
Astros dealing with matters of the heart

By Jerry Crasnick
ESPN.com

Business is business, and Astros owner Drayton McLane has better ways to spend his grocery distribution money than on a 38-year-old first baseman -- especially one with an arthritic right shoulder that makes the baseball feel like a shot put every time he throws it.

So when McLane and general manager Tim Purpura met with Jeff Bagwell on Tuesday to tell him the Astros were declining his $18 million option for 2007, they groped for just the right words. It isn't easy saying goodbye to a franchise mainstay, even when you're giving him a $7 million buyout as a parting gift.

It was up to Bagwell, the consummate no-frills guy, to cut through the preliminaries and get to the heart of the matter.

"I think it was weirder for us than for Jeff," Purpura said. "We spent a lot of last week here talking about how we would do this. Then we sat down with Jeff and he was like, 'Everybody knows it's going to happen. It's no big surprise.'"

Since 1991, Bagwell and Craig Biggio have worked in tandem to establish a professional tone in the Houston clubhouse, grinding from spring training to the end of the season, disdaining excuses and showing teammates the meaning of the word "accountable."

Their faces appeared on bobblehead dolls, media guides and pocket schedules, while their names and numbers showed up on the backs of thousands of replica jerseys. Coming or going, you knew they were around.

Now the end has arrived for one and is progressively closer for the other. While most teams concentrate on the immediate future at this time of year, no club has a bigger challenge balancing sentiment and practicality than the Astros. It seems they're always balancing the future with the past.

"I've kind of stolen a line I heard President Kennedy use," Purpura said. "The torch is being passed to a new generation of Astros."

One of them, All-Star outfielder Lance Berkman, was driving his daughters to a church function on Halloween night when he reflected on the news of Bagwell's farewell. Sure, the Astros grew accustomed to Bagwell's popping in sporadically last season. But a sense of finality exists today that wasn't there yesterday.

"You start thinking about guys who used to be there when you first came up, and a lot of them are retired or getting to the end of their careers," Berkman said. "The passing of time is slow, but it definitely happens. You look up and all of a sudden you're one of those veterans and the responsibility is on you to carry on that tradition."

And for each signpost that passes, another procedural hurdle awaits. Today the star first baseman's option isn't exercised. Tomorrow, the general manager will pick up the phone, and the agent for the star second baseman will be on the line.

Now that the Astros have addressed Bagwell's situation, they'll try to reach agreement on a one-year deal with Biggio, who just completed his 19th season in Houston with 2,930 hits. Ideally, they'd like to get the matter resolved before the end of the free-agent filing period on Nov. 11.

The signs point toward this being Biggio's final season. While he ranked fourth among NL second basemen with 21 homers last year, his defense has slipped and his combined on base-slugging percentage of .728 was the lowest of his career.

Although negotiations have been amicable, it's not the mere formality you might think. Purpura said the Astros have offered Biggio a "fairly significant" raise over last season, when he made $4 million, but a gap remains in negotiations with Biggio's agent, Barry Axelrod.

"I think it will get done," Purpura said. "There's no difference of opinion over Craig's value to the franchise. He's a huge part of the franchise. But how do you put a value on what may be his last year? The longer you go on and play, there's some decline. How do you value that?"

The Astros have lots of other business to tend to after that. Andy Pettitte and Roger Clemens will file for free agency, but have yet to decide whether they want to pitch in 2007. Regardless, the Astros have to explore other options. They might take a look at Woody Williams, a Houston native who would be payroll-friendly, or Randy Wolf, a lefty who's well-respected in the Astros clubhouse.

There's pressure on Purpura to go after a big bat. But Pettitte and Clemens cost about $30 million combined in 2006, and if they return, there may not be enough in the budget for a Carlos Lee. Luis Gonzalez, who began his career as an Astro, could be an option. He was second in the league with 52 doubles this season.

One announcement that might be slow in coming is a retirement declaration from Bagwell. He'll probably file for free agency as a procedural matter, just to keep his options open. As Axelrod, who is also Bagwell's agent, points out: It never hurts to be prepared just in case Boston wants to right an old wrong and bring Bagwell back for $20 million.

And if the Red Sox decide they're fine at DH with that David Ortiz guy?

"I talk to Jeff about a lot of stuff, but I never point blank said, 'If they don't pick up the option, are you going to retire?'" Axelrod said. "It's always a little uneasy. I finally asked him the other day, and he said, 'I haven't crossed that threshold just yet.' "

Purpura and Axelrod expect Bagwell to maintain his ties to the Astros franchise, just like Nolan Ryan in Houston or George Brett in Kansas City. Maybe he'll try broadcasting down the road, or help out in spring training, or pass through a minor league town to help straighten out a prospect's swing.

His old teammates will still see him around, for sure. But catcher Brad Ausmus, one of Bagwell's closest friends in baseball, said he'll miss the clubhouse interaction.

"Our lockers were side-by-side, and he was the one person I could count on to give me a straight answer, regardless of the topic," Ausmus said. "We sat together after each game, and we talked and watched baseball. It was nice to have that sounding board. The ironic thing is, despite the fact that we agreed on nearly 100 percent of all baseball discussions, it will be the disagreements and arguments that I will remember most."

Five years from now, Hall of Fame voters will debate Bagwell's contributions and determine his legacy. Maybe they'll penalize him for stopping at 449 home runs. Or perhaps they'll take note that Lou Gehrig, Jimmie Foxx, Rafael Palmeiro, Eddie Murray and Bagwell are the only full-time first basemen in the modern era to finish with more than 1,500 runs scored and 1,500 RBI.

"When he was in the prime of his career, before he got hurt, his numbers were as good as any right-handed hitter in the game," Berkman said. "This is obviously on a much lesser scale. But when you think about the Yankees, you think about Babe Ruth. And when you think about the Astros, you think about Jeff Bagwell."

The Astrodome eventually gave way to Minute Maid Park, and Roy Oswalt developed from a prospect into a $73 million pitcher, and Bagwell and Biggio endured lots of disappointment before appearing in their one and only World Series in 2005. Now one is done and the other is shrouded in twilight. Time passes, and there's nothing you can do about it.

 

no, you're right. and i don't want to communicate as if i believe bagwell did that...i don't think he did.

but bagwell will be judged amongst other power hitters. biggio won't.

 

i'm pretty resigned to the fact that bagwell won't be a first ballot HOFer, even though he deserves to be. if biggio retires after this season with 3,000, i can't see any way he's not a first ballot guy b/c he's got one of the magic numbers with no roid rumors. hopefully, when they see biggio's name on the ballot and see bagwell around from the year before, it'll give bagwell a boost just from the ties they have and maybe a boost from people who want to see them go in together. presumably bagwell will get in eventually.


it's one thing for a guy to lose the prime of his career to injuries and have us say "what could have been" and then not vote him into the hall because his numbers are just too low. but bagwell had 14 healthy seasons during which he played HOF baseball. it's not like we don't know if he could be a HOFer. he basically just missed out on the Milestone Years. those years when a guy is still productive but not quite his HOF self and starts to drop in the efficiency categories. the years when guys cross the 500 HR, 3000 hits, 300 win plateaus, the same way biggio is doing now or randy johnson and glavine are trying to limp past 300 wins.

are those the years we're going to judge a guy by? i don't think people know how easily bagwell could have moved up some of the all-time lists. bagwell played 14 full seasons and basically stopped at age 36 (so before the last 2 years) while most HOFers rack up careers more in the 18 to 19 season range and play to around 40.

in his last season, even with an F'd of shoulder, he put up 26 hr, 89 rbi, 104 runs, and 96 bb's. even if he just declined from those numbers (which were already artificially low b/c of the shoulder) and put up an average of say 20 hr, 75 rbi, 75 runs, and 75 bb's (bagwell could score 75 runs and draw 75 bb's in his sleep) for the next 3 years, numbers he surpassed every year of his career except the first 2 (and only in homers) and just played for 17 seasons up through 39, the guy could have moved way up the homers, runs, rbi, and bb lists.

he'd go from 54th on the runs list (1517) to 21st (1742).

he'd go from 41st on the rbi list (1529) to 18th (1854).

he'd go from 33rd on the hr list (449) to 20th (509) though thomas, thome, and manny could potentially have more by then.

he'd go from 24th on the bb list (1401) to 9th (1626).

those would be some huge numbers and great ranks on the all-time lists, and they only assume an extra 3 years at fairly reduced levels of production. frank thomas has pretty much been equal to bagwell in batting (probably slightly better just in terms of hitting) and he just had a huge year (39/114) at age 38. so it's not like we're forecasting anything crazy here.

the point isn't that bagwell should get credit for all those extra numbers, just that they put into perspective how good his first 14 years were to already be that highly ranked in those categories and that not being around for your milestone years shouldn't mean you don't make the Hall.

 

actually biggios name was brought up few times in a couple of articles i read. But it will stick with Bagwell more because he beefed up during those times

 

If Bagwell isn't a first ballot guy, wouldn't it be pretty awesome to have him and Biggio go into the HOF in the same class?

 

heck yeah

 

More Bagwell statistical thingies:

- Bagwell was a career .303/.421/.546 hitter at the Astrodome, one of the 2 most extreme pitchers' parks during that period (Chavez Ravine)

- Every eligible player with 5 or more .300, 30 HR, 100 RBI seasons is in the Hall of Fame, Bagwell did it 5 times, 4 while playing in the Dome

- From '98 to 2001, Bagwell scored 545 runs. His 2-year (295, '99-00), 3-year (421, '99-01) and 4-year totals are surpassed by only 5 players - Chuck Klein, Ted Williams, Ty Cobb, Lou Gehrig & Babe Ruth. No player in the post-WWII era even comes close. His 152 runs scored in 2000 are the most in a season since 1936.

 

No real surprise, although I would like him to retire a Stros as it looks like that's where he is headed..$7MM buyout, not bad for Mr. Bagwell...

And yes, he s/b a first ballot HOF...but I'm biased...

 

i've said this for years. puljos will, one day, not only be better, but will probably be one of the greatest to ever play, regardless of position.

but right now, bagwell is the best ever by a wiiiiiiide margin.

 

Agreed, on both counts.

Now, you historians: rank Bagwell, Stargell, and McCovey among *all* 1B all-time. Does Bagwell crack the top 5 when lumped in with some of the great AL 1B?

This page has Bags ranked 9th. How was McCovey better? Note that Bill James has Bagwell ranked 4th all time. Note also that our Big Bopper didn't even crack the top 100. What's up with that?? The figures they're using are pretty old, too.

 

Ive mentioned this before but he was openly using Andro, which was obvioulsy banned from every sport. Mcgwire also "used" Andro, leaving it around for the media to see kinda like Bagwell did. Im also skeptical cuz he was homies w/ Caminiti. Anyways....Bags was never caught so thats not gonna affect his HOF chances.

 

interestingly, the james 100 ranks biggio 35th (i assume this is top 100 all-time, regardless of position), bagwell 47th and clemens 49th.

clemens get inducted 5 years to the day after he retires and james ranks biggio and bagwell ahead of him.