Let's assume that you do use Pts Allowed PG and FG% to give you an indication of defensive strength. Take a look at the 2005-2006 season and you'll see why PPG and FG% are not correlated: Ranking by Pts Allowed here are the top 5: Code: RNK TM PPG FG% 1 MEM 88.5 43.6 2 SAN 88.8 43.33 3 DET 90.2 45.19 4 HOU 91.7 42.92 5 IND 92 43.53 Now let's take a look at ranking the top 5 by FG% allowed: Code: RNK TM PPG FG% 1 CHI 97.8 42.56 2 HOU 91.7 42.92 3 SAN 88.8 43.33 4 LAC 95.6 43.49 5 IND 92 43.53 Based on pts allowed Memphis had the best defense. Based on FG% Chicago had the best defense. Who has the best defense? PPG allowed and FG% allowed aren't necessarily correlated. Now let's size things up using points-per-possession and see what we get: Code: RNK TM POSS DRtg PPG FG% 1 SAN 87.9 100.9 88.8 43.53 2 MEM 85.6 103.3 88.5 43.6 3 NJN 88.9 104 92.4 43.88 4 IND 88.4 104 92 43.53 5 DET 86.4 104.3 90.2 45.19 6 CHI 93.1 104.4 97.2 42.56 7 HOU 87.4 104.8 91.7 42.92 8 LAC 91.2 104.8 95.6 43.49 9 MIA 90.7 105.9 96 43.97 10 MIN 88.4 105.9 93.6 44.05 You can see where using points per possession tells you a lot more about a team's defense where using PPG allowed and FG% allowed doesn't. #1 It becomes more apparent here the stiffness of the Spurs defense. By pts allowed the Grizzlies should be ahead of the Spurs defensively. Instead what we see now is that part of the reason for the Grizzlies lower points allowed is because they play at a slower pace than the Spurs - taking & allowing fewer shots. This is what Walton was referring to. But look at the points allowed per possession (DRtg)- the Spurs have a much better defense than the Griz by allowing 100.9 pts per 100 possessions while Mem allows 103.3. #2 Notice the comparison between the Rockets and Spurs. Both teams played about at the same pace (87 possessions per game). Houston even had a lower FG% allowed than the Spurs. But again we can see the qualitative difference between Houston's defense vs. the Spurs in that they allowed only 100.9 vs. Houston at 104.8 for the same number of possessions. Quoting Dean Oliver, a well respected basketball stats expert: "Points per possession is the best way available to measure the quality of offenses and defenses. The method takes into account points scored, field goal percentage, turnovers, offensive rebounds, and free throw percentage - everything (except for assists and, maybe, fouls) that can justifiably be looked at in measuring offensive or defensive quality." For reference possessions are estimated by the following: FGA-ORebs+TO+(.436*FTA)
I am much more concerned with whether the Rockets defense is better than the Phoeinix Suns offense. It has not been close in recent years. Bill Walton loves basketball, knows a lot about basketball, and loves to talk about basketball. I enjoy his commentary. I think, like most NBA commentators and writers not based in Texas, he knows less about our Rocks than we do. The "numbers about the Rockets defense not telling the truth" goes back to Kenny Smith a couple of years ago. He was convinced that team walked the ball up the court and ran the shot clock down to limit the amount of possesions, and that was what made the Rocket defensive stats look good. Kenny talked about this a lot and it seeped into the national consciousness.
Walton just says crazy things. He was basing the Phoenix defense on the game they just played against Cleveland, and not on the season. Funny though, the Suns held Cleveland to 90 points, the Rox held them to low 60s when they played. At least JB and Tirico called him out on it. As for his argument that the Rox slow play is the reason for their defensive numbers, shouldnt he make the same arguement that their 96 points a game is really more equivical to 130 because they play the slow style. Clearly he should argue the Rox offense is more potent then the Suns because the suns run and gun and get so many shots up, vs our grinding style.
I can't believe people like Bill Walton talk out of their behind when there is a an accurate metric for determining a teams' defensive prowess. Points allowed per possession or 100 possessions shows that the Rockets are best. Rebounding, forcing turnovers, 3 pt defense, not allowing free throw shooting by shutting down the point are all components of good defense.
That has something to do with the Rox's defense schema. First they play at a slower pace, which means there are not a lot of fastbreak opportunities from either side and everything should happen in the half court. Second, Rox defense clog and defend the paint at all cost. They try their best to take away the easy shots inside. So no fastbreak, no easy score inside (two of highest FG% scoring methods) and opponents can only shoot Js from outside. That is why you see OFG % plummets. This is actually a high efficient defense schema in NBA. To beat JVG's defense system, you have to be able to knock down the Js from perimeter. The open Js will be there, but you have to knock it down. It is the key. Unfortunately in today's NBA, there are not many teams can do that. Most teams' perimeter shooting suck, especially those teams from east, some of them are just horrible. That makes JVG's defense stats look good. On the other hand, it explains why Rox always struggles against Suns. Their perimeter shooting is too good for Rox to defend and their ability to run the fastbreak is outstanding. So their strength is JVG's weakness and they can beat Rox multiple times. I believe Mavs have the same strength on offense, and their defense is better than the Suns. That is why those two teams are the most dangerous teams to the Rockets in the playoffs.
Walton is an idiot fg% in my book is an accurate measure... ask any statistician given a large enough sample size you can make very accurate statements... Maybe its not defense Bill its just that when other teams play the Rockets they shoot worse!!! oh wait maybe theres a reason for that.... and its called defense... seriously though once you play enough games the stats dont lie, **** bill go take a class on statistics and probability. he was talkin some bs about phoenix having a better defense because of their run and gun offense or somethin like that..... how does their style of offense have to do with their "great" defense?? put down the crack.
When Bill calls Yao, "the greatest human being on the planet" you guys say he is brilliant. Get a grip. http://espn-mp3-od.andomedia.com/espnpod2/espnradio/walton/walton070110.mp3 Bill Walton rules.
JVG probably won't let Walton visit with Yao like Rudy use to do all the time and Walton's feelings are hurt. and then there's his pipe smoking buddhist buddy that coaches his son that JVG has friction with. so you can kind of put **** together there
I think you have to look at the opposing team's points/possession as an effective measure of defense. Points, fg%, and are not the best metrics. The ultimate metric is how successful a team is at putting up points each possession. Thus steals, offensive fouls, offensive/defensive rebounding all get taken into account - which doesn't with fg% or points held too.
One things these stats miss is how these teams accomplish such great defensive stats. If the refs allowed us as much contact as they allow Detroit and San Antonio, we'd be impossible to beat. We play great defense without the help of the refs. Every time you play the Spurs, it's 8 on 5.
He's a bandwagon jumper, a complet joke. He even said Rockets would feel bad after "the devastating loss" when there were still 6 mins to go and we were down about 6-8 pts. Jon Barry should have made him look worse.
On Battier's play Walton also said all he wished is that Battier plays along with LB. What's wrong with this Guy? Why he hates Houston so much?
Yea... that was one of those "surreal life" moments... "I always wished that a guy like Battier could end up with Lebron." Both Tirico and Barry were speechless... literally... cause they couldn't fathom what kind of point Walton was making, and how he could blatantly ignore the qualities/benefits of the stars of the team BATTIER IS ACTUALLY ON!!
I got in an email fight with Dan LeBatard, who is just as big a b*stard in real life as he appears on PTI, over this. You can blow the rest of the league away in def. FG% and still not be anywhere near the best defensive team in the NBA. The Bulls were sixth in defensive efficiency last year, but lead the league in defensive field goal percentage. Why? Because they were horrible at causing turnovers, and sent teams to the free throw line more than just about any other team besides Utah (I think it was). Points. Just look at points (per possession, obviously).
I do have to say this: I AM chuffed at the idea that a mainstream color commentator would even think of mentioning how pace affects per game stats, even if he is way, way (way way way way way) off, like Bill was here. I just wish it had come earlier in the year, when teams were talking about Denver's offense, or with Memphis' D last year, or Cleveland's D under Fratello when I was in high school ...
As for the stats lovers, should I remind you that Memphis Grizzlies was No. 2 in Defense Efficiency after 82 games in last season. Oh! the Grizzlies got swept in the playoffs. It seems the Grizzlies' defense rating couldnt help them defend anything in the playoff. And Mike Fratello and JVG are twin brothers. Shane Battier was on that team. And now Battier is with the Rockets! Just hope history wont repeat itself.
excuse walton... the old man sometimes doesn't know what hes saying. Glad barry is next to him to guide him alittle
Also the Spurs had the best rated defense as well in the regular season ahead of the Memphis. Yet that did them little good in making into the NBA finals. I haven't run the DRtg numbers for the playoffs but clearly defensive efficiency in the regular season is no guarantee of peformance in the playoffs. That's why it always chaps me that the idea that "defense wins championships" still persists.
