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[ESPN] Should the Knicks let Lin leave?

Discussion in 'NBA Dish' started by burnshroom, Jul 16, 2012.

  1. burnshroom

    burnshroom Member

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    Saw this on ESPN. 5 on 5.

    Makes me think come tomorrow midnight Lin will be a Knick:

    http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/page/5-on-5-120716/nba-knicks-let-lin-leave

    If posted elsewhere please feel free to lock or delete.

    Should the Knicks let Lin leave?
    5-on-5: Will New York match Houston's offer sheet for the point guard?
    Originally Published: July 16, 2012

    Here are six writers weighing in on the New York drama.


    1. What has grabbed you most in this stunning turn of events?


    Henry Abbott, TrueHoop: There is a code. Players don't trash their teammates in the media, or anything like it. Teams don't trash their players, either. But Carmelo Anthony, J.R. Smith, and most convincingly Knicks sources cited by Stephen A. Smith are putting some ideas out there that, given the code, will curl your hairs.

    J.A. Adande, ESPN.com: The stunning amount of money involved for a guy who had a one-comma salary last season and didn't play in enough games to "qualify" for rankings among the league's scoring leaders. It's also stunning that this same player could hijack the NBA world's attention away from Dwight Howard, the league leader in hijacking.

    John Hollinger, ESPN.com: New York's sudden bout of financial prudence. I didn't think they'd care about the luxury tax hit with either Lin or Landry Fields, but it turns out that the penalty in 2014-15 in particular is deep enough to give even the Knickerbockers some pause.

    Israel Gutierrez, ESPN.com: What's still pretty stunning with Lin is that there remain such varying opinions about whether he can actually play. There aren't many players as inexperienced as Lin who deserve this kind of money, but to reach this point without a solid grasp of his ability or potential is almost unheard of.

    Marc Stein, ESPN.com: The staying power of Linsanity. After months of dormancy, it has bumped the Dwight Howard Sweepstakes right out of the crosshairs of the NBA news cycle. It's been a weekend full of emotion and plot twists, which leads me to a thought that ran through my head a lot last season: How could Lin's rookie season be so uneventful? Still can't quite figure that one out.

    David Thorpe, Scouts Inc.: Probably that Melo and Smith spoke out before the final decision was made. Melo came to New York to be the savior, and he does not want some little undrafted Harvard dude to take that role. That much seems obvious.


    2. Better point guard for the Knicks: Raymond Felton or Jeremy Lin?


    Abbott: Raymond Felton has never overseen a period of team play nearly as successful as Linsanity. We know him well enough as a player to know there is zero risk of Felton making the Knicks a whole different and better team. For him, being an average NBA point guard would be a pleasant surprise. What are the chances Lin will change the team's fortunes? It's possible, which makes Lin far more valuable.

    Adande: If the Knicks consider anything less than advancing in the playoffs this season a failure (and they should) then the answer is Felton. If you're going to win in the playoffs it helps to have a point guard with playoff experience. Lin might be a better long-term solution … if there weren't the issue of the long-term implications of his contract.

    Hollinger: Ha ha ha ha ha. I've spent enough time in Portland to know the answer is "not Felton." He had his best year in New York under Mike D'Antoni, but that was two years and about 20 pounds ago. Plus, he won't have the ball in his hands now, and he's not a floor spacer.

    Gutierrez: Lin is the better fit and has greater potential. Felton played some of his best basketball in Mike D'Antoni's system, as did Lin. But Lin did it with less experience, had more explosive scoring games and has better size. So it's safe to assume that even in a less-point-guard-dominated system, Lin can still be the better player.

    Stein: I know lots of people think Lin is merely a product of Mike D'Antoni's system … which, by the way, must have something to do with D'Antoni after all if Lin, however briefly, can put up Nashian numbers running it. But I'm not one of those people. Lin is long, athletic and supremely confident in his own ability. He did enough in those 25 games of Linsanity to earn the benefit of the doubt with me. I'm not going to write him off post-D'Antoni when he's barely had the chance yet. Also: Weren't Felton's best days as a Knick with D'Antoni, too?

    Thorpe: Lin today, Lin tomorrow. I guess it's possible that Felton can find better form than he has, but Lin is a much safer bet. At least we know he's on an upswing still. Has Felton ever had a better month than Lin had, despite far more opportunities to do so? No.



    3. Were the Rockets wise to offer Lin $25 million for three years?


    Abbott: Depends on their ability to monetize Lin's vast number of ardent fans around the globe. Linsanity has a powerful business effect, too -- any player who earns the team more than he costs is cheap, right? He alone could drive higher ticket prices in Houston, new in-arena sponsors and the like. And if all that does not pan out, the heinous cap effect is only one year long.

    Adande: No. Just as they weren't wise to offer Omer Asik that deal or it wasn't wise for Portland to offer a max contract to Roy Hibbert and it wasn't wise for Toronto to offer $20 million to Landry Fields. There hasn't been an NBA move this summer that made you say, "That was really wise."

    Hollinger: It's borderline, but Kevin McHale's system is a point guard dominant one and Lin thrives with the ball in his hands. Also, if New York had matched, it was a nearly $1 million windfall for the Rockets and every other owner via luxury tax payments. Also, keep in mind that the Rockets aren't exactly gun shy about paying tax down the road if they have to.

    Gutierrez: They were if the goal was to not have the Knicks match. The Rockets need players, obviously, and overpaying is usually the only way to land restricted free agents. Again, this all goes back to whether or not Lin can play. If he develops into a top-15 point guard by the end of the third year, the contract won't look nearly as "ridiculous," to quote Carmelo Anthony.

    Stein: Absolutely. They structured the deal in a way that has given the Knicks real pause after months of assurances from inside and outside the organization that matching Lin's offer sheet was an automatic at any price. The Rockets did that because they really want Lin, no matter what the paranoid Knicks think. And structuring the deal this way gave them the best chance.

    Thorpe: Probably yes. Look at it like this: He can probably provide equal value to his contract in the first two years, and even if he is overpaid in Year 3 by $6-9 million, he's likely to earn at least that much back in off-the-court revenue over the life of his contract. Very few players pack that kind of punch. Houston knows that business well, thanks to Yao.



    4. What are the chances the Knicks change their minds and match?


    Abbott: Carmelo Anthony came to New York to create a basketball family like LeBron James enjoys in Miami, where he is at the center of a world where players work hard and have each others' backs. The Knicks are into that, too. Seems hard to keep that vibe by bringing in a contract Anthony calls "ridiculous."

    Adande: Moderate. Things have been so fluid in the league this summer, but generally what you've heard about matching or not matching has come true. I've been told it's strictly James Dolan's call right now, and he doesn't have the greatest decision-making track record, so he might not make the expected play. He might get nostalgic for Linsanity, or become enthralled with Lin's marketing potential. But keep in mind, they've already got a new cable deal with Time Warner out of Lin, plus the season-ticket renewal forms went out long ago. They'll still be profiting from him even if he's gone.

    Hollinger: I do believe there's a chance, just because the public outcry has been so vast and because this is the type of situation where James Dolan can decide -- or redecide -- on a whim.

    Gutierrez: All it takes is a realistic look at their roster over the next three years. If it's the luxury tax the Knicks are afraid of down the road, they can easily convince themselves that, if they're not title contenders, the contracts of Amare Stoudemire, Tyson Chandler or Carmelo Anthony are movable.

    If they like Lin's talent, they can change their minds now and worry about the tax two years from now.

    Stein: I still believe there's a decent chance that the Knicks match. They're going to wait all the way until Tuesday night's buzzer, just to punish the Rockets as much as they can for making Year 3 of Lin's contract so onerous, but I tend to think that the Knicks will have an equally tough time digesting the idea of letting a player with Lin's promise and proven ability to generate unprecedented revenue walk away for nothing.

    Thorpe: How can we predict the future of a team that has no problem wildly overpaying Amare, Melo and Chandler, but now is thinking more prudently about dollars? I'd guess the chances New York bungles this decision is 70 percent.



    5. Should the Knicks match the Rockets' offer?


    Abbott: It doesn't matter all that much. The Knicks like to act like they're making these league-changing decisions all the time, but they're perennially mediocre regardless. Maybe it's not rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic, but it's rearranging the deck chairs on some mediocre, overpriced cruise. The only reason not to would be if they have a plan to bring in a real game-changer with that cap space, which they might. But so long as we're talking about a team dominated by Carmelo isolations, it doesn't matter all that much which four players are watching.

    Adande: No. If they're going to be based on Carmelo Anthony (as they should, given how much they did to get him) and they're going to continue to keep Amare Stoudemire on the payroll, it doesn't make financial sense (from a salary cap/luxury tax perspective) to have Lin around three years from now … especially when he isn't a great basketball fit with Carmelo, either. As much as Carmelo might try to spin it otherwise, this does come down to either/or. The city might be big enough for Lin and Carmelo, but the court and payroll aren't.

    Hollinger: Yes. Lin's first two years are cheap and his marketability makes him worth almost any price anyway.

    Gutierrez: Yes. You're not adding much with Raymond Felton. At least with Lin you have potential. If he develops into a scoring guard, or into an effective, consistent distributor, they will be a better team. The Knicks have never shied away from dishing out dollars, and this should be no different. Again, if finances become a problem, they can always be fixed.

    Stein: Unquestionably. Match it and trade Lin after this season if it doesn't work. They will find a taker if necessary. And please don't give me this nonsense about Lin's contract being untradeable because of the Year 3 spike to $15 million. Joe Johnson just got traded, people. Jeremy Lin can be moved if New York is no longer the place for him.

    Thorpe: Not keeping Lin would be perhaps the single dumbest move a team has made since paying Gilbert Arenas, and then another team traded for him. He's probably going to be overpaid by $9 million in Year 3, but will make the Dolan family at least that much by then. Or another team, like Golden State, would love to trade for him and get the same off-court bang for their buck.
     
  2. B-Bob

    B-Bob "94-year-old self-described dreamer"

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    If it wasn't for the (weird) Felton signing, I would think the Knicks are just maximizing our pain by waiting until late Tuesday night (EST.)

    But I just can't figure the Felton signing.
     
  3. J.R.

    J.R. Member

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    Carmelo will forever be linked with phrase 'ridiculous contract', ha.

    No one knows what will happen. Intriguing stuff. ;)
     
  4. KingCheetah

    KingCheetah Contributing Member

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    Yeah, why would they sign Felton if they weren't going to let Lin walk? Felton's not bad at all - definitely a starter. If they had signed some scrub the story would be different, but Felton put up almost 18 ppg with the Knicks.
     
  5. mic

    mic Contributing Member

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    It's hard to tell because we're dealing with a butthurt rich boy. Who knows what will happen.
     
  6. tehG l i d e

    tehG l i d e Member

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    Jason Kidd fits perfectly there as a starter

    [​IMG]
     
  7. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan Member

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    It looks to me that they have already started to distance themselves from Lin. We saw this in the planted stories executed by media tools starting Sunday. They have publicly questioned Lin's toughness, his loyalty, his desire, his skill, his talent, his experience level and his ability to thrive under a new coach. They wanted to use to full three days (even more if they could weasel it) to create some ill will towards Lin and provide as soft a landing for themselves as possible by the Wednesday morning news cycle.

    On top of this is the problems that appear to be brewing within their own locker room. Envy, jealousy and ego don't seem like a good place to break camp on a new season that had been promising until lately.

    There has, however, been something of a public reaction the other way, a push back within the last 24 hours. Lots of fans and some in the media think they should keep him. While it sounded like Dolan had made up his mind already not to match, one cannot help but wonder if, once the emotions have cooled and with this public reaction, he will change his mind yet again. Dolan is a recovering addict, so perhaps it is in his character to come down on the side of giving Lin another chance?

    Reading the tea leaves, my vote is still that he/they will not match and Lin will be a Rocket.
     
    2 people like this.
  8. burnshroom

    burnshroom Member

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    Reading these responses and just sensing the shift in the winds it seems that they can easily justify the signing of Lin based on what they will gain financially by having him there. The Knicks were treading water last season before Linsanity and he gave the NBA and world a reason to talk about the Knicks again (in a positive light).

    The fallout from losing Lin with the season ticket holders might be more detrimental to the Knicks than that luxury tax hit in 3 seasons. Keep in mind that Lin can easily be traded if he and Melo don't mesh under Woody's offense... someone would take him, maybe even us.

    I see them taking the hit for the time being and dealing with the mess (of the contract) later.

    I also don't see any of those guys clicking to the fact that the cap hit for us (8.3 x 3) vs what it is for the Knicks is less of a hit... Or have we been reading it wrong.
     
  9. hotballa

    hotballa Contributing Member

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    I will give morey credit for this. Where the knicks see a 15m salary in year 3, morey sees a very tradeable expiring contract asset.
     
  10. MambaJoe

    MambaJoe Member

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    Man the Knicks should just let Lin go already. F*** the Knicks fans. Stop being greedy, you guys already have 2 very productive PGs already in Felton and Kidd. Stop being greedy and try to take our only decent PG away from our grasp. I hate and will always forever hate the Knicks fans.
     
  11. da_juice

    da_juice Member

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    Win/Win for me. Either we get a PG or the knickers are repeating the Isiah era.
     
  12. MambaJoe

    MambaJoe Member

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    I really hope they don't match Lin's contract at all. If they were planning to match his contract in the first place, I doubt they would make a trade for Raymond Felton. But I guess they felt that they cannot match the offer, they went out to grab another PG to take his place. I mean it's no point for them to match the offer and have Felton on the team also. They would have 3 PGs and not enough minutes to go around. Someone will be upset and feel left out. Lin is marketable but I think they should be smart and look at it in the basketball perspective.

    The Knicks did indeed questioned Lin's toughness, loyalty, & desire. They felt that he was 85% healthy and ready to play in the first round of the playoffs against the Heat but he kept insisting that he's not ready to play and sat out the entire series while other players are pretty much bruised up, beat up, knee injuries, family issues and they still went out and played their hearts out . Im sure Lin could play and helped the Knicks but he didn't I really wonder why he didn't want to play against the Heat. I mean I know he's somewhat a little beat up but I'm sure its not as bad as Dwade knee problem that needed surgery as soon as the playoffs was over. Steven A Smith said that Lin didn't want to lower his value on his contract season so that may be the case.... I guess he didn't want to look bad playing against the likes of Lebron James and Dwade.
     
  13. hooroo

    hooroo Member

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    Why not match if they can get a first rounder out of trading him?
     
  14. VanityHalfBlack

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    This needs to be on a poster when the Knicks come around town to Toyota Center....
    Damn man, can the season start already???
     
  15. ico4498

    ico4498 Member
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    hope they sign him and save Dareel Moldy's bacon.
     
  16. Royals Ego

    Royals Ego Member

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    from a basketball point of view, they should let him go
    from a business point of view, they should match
     
  17. Sooner423

    Sooner423 Contributing Member

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    It amazes me how little these supposed experts know about the business side of basketball. They're acting like Houston would have the same salary structure on the contract as NY. Also, it's not a 9 million dollar difference; it's a 70+ million dollar difference.
     
  18. VesceySux

    VesceySux Contributing Member

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    Sigh. Another "journalist" who thinks the cap hit for the Rockets is the same as it is for the Knicks. Where does ESPN find these idiots?
     
  19. tmoney1101

    tmoney1101 Contributing Member

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    ESPN wants lin to be a knick so bad.
     
  20. Precision340

    Precision340 Member

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    great point.. morey is a wizard!!
     

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