ESPN: Rockets will not match Grizzlies offer sheet

Plus, you still have to look at the deal when it was handed out. It doesn't look nearly as bad then as it does after Mo's injury.

It's not fair to evaluate it any other way.

 

nm, this post and the last two before it after the SLA rebuttal can be deleted as I accidentally hit the reply with quote function adjacent to the editing function. My apologies.

Guess it's a late night mishap thing.... Thanks a lot.

 

Thanks for coming in with some objectivty. The MLE is set at the average for league players. James Posey is much closer to an average league starter than an average league player--thus you can see this contract is quite reasonable.

I don't buy the strategy let your players go like mad to get under the cap to go for bigger fish. That worked real well for us in 01 (Webber didn'ty even give us a real look), and that sure has worked for the Jazz and almost every other team who has tried it. In short cap space is overrated, the big name FAs almost always stay with their current teams because that is how the deck is stacked. The good teams with plenty of talent they have kept over the years (e.g., Sac) can acquire and tinker with their teams even being over the cap.

You just don't lose a solid young player (who happens to be your best forward) at an average to below average market value contract w/o compensation--that is a terrible way to build a team.

 

MLE is the average salary of NBA players, but it does NOT mean average NBA players earn that much. You two need to take a statistics lesson and I am going to give you one free here.

To see how much average NBA players make, you have to use the "median" or thier salaries, not the "average". In this case, the "median" is much lower than the "average" because the distribution is heavily skewed to the lower end.

To demonstrate this to a layman, think about Yao. He makes less than MLE this year, but his salary last year ranks 147th in NBA. NBA has about 400 players. Posey will make about $6 mil a year, that put him within the top 100 paid players in NBA. (Cat ranked 107th with his over 5 mil last year).

So, Posey gets MLE, and that is much much more than an average NBA player makes! Do NOT use average NBA player as the standard to judge if his contract is fair!

 

I will admit to one mistake. I said Chandler would start because he's younger. I was wrong, that's not the reason he would start.

 

Dude I probably know more about statistics than you can dream about, I do statistical consulting. So yes I recognize the difference between median and mean, and that median is more appropriate for the case. Now if you have data on the median NBA salary of starting players I'd like to hear it--if it is lower than the a 4 year maxed MCE deal I'd say you have a good argument Posey contract might be above market value. But unless you have that data you are providing "a lesson" long an example/theory and short on relevance to the actual debate at hand. So until that data is provided I'll use the mean as the best estimate I got for this lighthearted debate.

 

Sorry, but there is no way Person and Knight will get you a center better than Lo Wright. Wright is actually decent...and these days even decent centers are hard to find. Also...isn't knight a FA? If he is, then why would you bother signing him (if not in a S&T) with Watson and Bell there?

 

You did not really want to ask for the median salary for starting players, did you?
Saying Posey is a median starting players means among 5 (players) x 29 (teams) starting players, he is better than 58, as good as 28 others and only worse than 58 players in the whole NBA? It is close to saying, on the Rockets roster, only Yao and Steve are better. Posey is third, above Cat and EG?
That would not be accurate, would it?

Would it be closer to say Posey is a median among ALL NBA players?

If that is what you asked then I have the numbers for you.
http://www.dfw.net/~patricia/misc/salaries03.txt
This is 02-03 figures but it should be maybe 10% from next year.
According to it, there were 225 players who made less than $3 mil and 198 players who made more.
Where do u think we should put Posey?

 

By the way I did a quick look at the 58 or so starting 2s and 3s in the league to gage Posey's market value. You first have to eliminate 16 or so with rookie scale contracts because they are fixed and have no bearing on market value of free agents. By my count that leaves around 42 starting non rookie scale contract 2s or 3s in the league. Of these 42, somewhere between 8-10--Jordan (1 mil), Cheney (1), Harpring (4), Bowen (3.5), S Jack (1), Wesley (3.5), Fox (4.3) and Curry (2.5), maybe a couple others started at times like Peeler (3.4) or Redd (4.5)--made less than 5 million last year. Thus is it pretty safe to say Posey at around 4.9 mil next year would be right at the bottom 1/4 pay level for veteran swingmen, I am, guessestimating the median is like 8 and 9 mil, the mean a little higher like 10 or above (left tail skewed by contracts like KG making 25 & Pippen 20--but you also have a few at 1 mil or less too like the ones above).

Now consider some other egregious salaries of starters (note I did not categorize KG at 25 mil in this way b/c you are still talking KG no matter how much he is paid)--Big Dog (10), Rose (12), Finley (12), Jamison (10), Rice (9), Reggie Mil (12), Eddie Jones (11), Tim Thomas (11), Ray Allen (12), Kittles (9), Spree (12), Houston (14), KVH (12), A Hardaway (12), Pippen (20), and VC (10) and quite a few veteran non-starters--Eddie R (6), Croshere (7), Mercer (7), Person (7), MD (6), Shandon (6), Nick A (6), Wahad (6), Sura (6), Mills (6), Hill (12), DA (7), Patterson (5), Ferry (4.5), Smith (10), and Hughes (4.5).

In sum, however you want to slice it, Posey with a 4 year MCE deal starting at 4.9 is a very reasonable market value contract for what you get. Is it the best deal in town? No some gambles of players not particularly wanted by their previous teams sure worked out with a change of scenery--e.g., S Jac, Bowen, Cheney, and Harpring, but I feel confident saying Posey at 4.9 would be among the top 1/3rd best value contracts for starting quality league swingmen.

 

Yes, I meant median starting players, and to be even more specific 2s or 3s. Posey is certainly closer to the median starting player than the median overall player. I agree Posey is probably below the median for starters, but he is better than or equal to 1/3rd of the starters in his position(s) and considering only 35-40% of NBA league players start at all that means he is probably like top ¼ or above in the whole league.

Almost accurate, not quite. Posey is our 4th best player, he was Denver’s 2nd best player. On Most teams I would expect him to be no worse than the 4th or 5th best player. This lends itself another way to calculate market value. Identify the veterans (none rookie contracts) who represent the 3rd, 4th and 5th best players for their respective teams. Than average across them and see what you get--the averaging should more or less smooth over the fact some teams have decent players as their 7th, 8th man (Sac, Dal, Port) and some teams don't have quality players after 1 or 2 players (Denver, Clevl)--but most are like Houston with maybe 3 or 4 good all around players that would start for most teams plus a couple major holes in their starting line-up.

To be more accurate take say the 70-80 highest percential contracts of all league swinmen, or the 20th-33rd percentile of league starting swingmen--excluding the non market driven rookie scale contracts of course. I think you will find Posey’s contract, if matched, compares quite well.

 

DS,

I still think your way of guaging Posey's contract is flawed. First, you can't just exclude rookie contracts from your calculation. These players have rookie contracts because, well, they are young players. And young players on the whole don't have as much value as veterans. So they generally fit with their market value.

Second, you can't just compare starters because teams have different depth at the positions. Somebody's starter might not be as good as somebody else's backup. So to judge Posey's value more accurately, you have to first rank him among ALL 2s and 3s in the league and then rank his salary against ALL 2s and 3s in the league. (Maybe you or someone can do that. I don't have the time. My guess is that the management probably has done that reasearch.)

 

No offense, with a Ph. D degree in statistics, I feel I know a bit more statistics than most people here. But I am open to all discussions.

I quoted the numbers from RealGM. I counted in a couple of minutes, and there are roughly 438 players listed on the payroll. Unfortunately, they don't rank them in a big list.

I don't have all day to rank them (no downloadable data set, otherwise would be easy). But I can see this: Shane Battier make 2.5 mil, and ranks 198th, higher than the 219th we want to know.

So the "median" is lower than 2.5 mil a year. That is about half and the MLE. Quite a big difference, don't you say? This is the point of my last post. People were using "average NBA player" to measure Posey. "Average NBA player" makes less than 2.5 mil.

Now, on the "median NBA starters". That will take some time to analyze. Personally, I don't think Posey is average starter. As much as we are unhappy with Cat, Cat is more valuable than Posey if you ask most GMs. So Posey and EG draw a tie. But we are not a playoff team with two super talents. That means EG and Posey are probably at the bottom quintile among all starters.
This is really not that rigorous. How many NBA starters are making more than MLE? I don't know but I doubt it would be as many as 100.

 

That is one way to look at it.
I took a quick look myself and think Posey for sure is in the bottom 1/4 th of the starting 2 and 3. Maybe even worse.
Let me see if I can list 14 players in that group he is better than.

Posey is better than:
Boston: Eric Williams.
Wizards: Larry Hughes
Hawks: Diaw, Glover
Raptors: Peterson
Mavs: Griffin
Nuggets: White
Grizz: Person
Lakers: Fox

Even:
Spur: Bowen, Gino or Jackson
Warriors: Richardson

Not as good as:
Boston: Pierce
Heat: Jones, Butler
Nets: Kittles, Jefferson
Knicks: Houston, Van Horn
Magic: Grady, Howard
76ers: Iverson, Robinson
Wizards: Stackhouse
Bulls: Rose, Pippen or Marshall
Cavs: Davis, Miles
Det: Halmiton, Prince or Williamson
Indiana: Miller, Artest
Bucks: Desmond Mason, Thomas
Hornets: Wesley, Mashburn
Raptor: Carter
Mavs: Finley
Nuggets: Carmelo
Grizz: Miller
Wolves: Sprewell, Szerbiak
Jazz: Maggette, Harping
Warriors: Jamison
Clippers: Odom
Lakers: Bryan
Suns: Hardaway, Marion
Kings: Christie, Stojakovic
Sonics: Allen, Lewis

You can argue maybe 1, 2 names either way but u have to agree Posey is in the bottom 1/4 of the starting 2 and 3 at best.

Given that, is he getting his fair contract?
Base on the 10% increase from the base 4.9 mil MCE.
He gets 4.9 + 5.4 + 5.9 + 6.5 = 22.7
(To get to 24 mils / 4 yrs, they must have used the increased BRI number for subsequent yr too. )

4.9 is not bad but 6.5 is a bit much.

It is twice Pike's contract:
2.5 + 3 + 3 = 8.5 mils for 3 yrs.

 

The Rockets aren't in the "dump" mode. Posey is the only one... in '01 the Rockets were going nowhere... it's amazing what a Yao Ming can do for a franchise in terms of desirability. We shouldn't really be offended that Webber didn't give us a look. He was all about the Knicks or going back to the Kings.

There were always specific reasons why the "dump" strategy hasn't worked for teams in recent years... Utah is probably the least sexy place to play in the NBA... In Chicago, Jerry Krause's reputation killed the Bulls' chances of landing a top flight FA. The strategy seems to be working out well for Denver so far.

DesertScar, would signing Posey prevent us from making a move to get a stud PF in future? I don't know, I haven't done any salary cap analysis.

If Les doesn't match the offer, I think it will be for a combination of reasons:

1. We are still paying the mistakes from past contracts that he signed, and despite the fact that Posey's contract could be considered reasonable for team without cap issues, he isn't willing to pony up the cash to keep him.

2. The Rockets believe that Nachbar is the answer at the 3. If he is, then Posey becomes a marginally overpaid reserve.

3. If Nachbar is not the answer at the 3, the Rockets will still make the playoffs this year without Posey, which is the goal. Rice comes off the books next year giving us more flexibility to make moves and acquire help at the 3 or 4.

We don't have the luxury of a Mark Cuban or Maloof Brothers as our owner... and if Les is going to stick to being around the cap, we can either start a grassroots petition for him to sell the team or resign ourself to the fact that we will not be able to/Les will not be willing to make the moves that some other teams will.

IMO, Posey is an idiot for signing an offer sheet to the Griz anyway. They have so many swingmen that one or more of them is definitely going to get traded, maybe to a not so pleasant place. What differentiates him from Shane Battier? More athleticism and a worse shot... that's it. But I guess he would still have millions of dollars to sleep on wherever he might end up, so it doesn't really matter then. He's never been to the playoffs and he shouldn't count on it in the near future.

 

I just thought that it was odd that you would refer to a Ph. D. as a Ph. D. degree. I have never heard anyone refer to a Ph. D. that way. I'm not making any assumptions but I just thought it was odd. By the way where did you attend school? Just curious since math was always one of my favorite subjects.

 

Cornell.

 

I think you have to exclude rookie scale contracts. A) They are set by the league/CBA, not the teams brass. Sometimes it works out great (Yao, Butler, Amare), sometimes you are stuck with a wasted contract (Collier, Langhi), regardless the teams can't negotiate. B) rookie scale contracts by their purpose can't be competed over--they are set, it isn't a market situation like when multiple teams can bid for FAs.

If someone would trade us Caron Butler or maybe even Shane Battier I'd be willing to let Posey go and say I have the better contract (at least until they are FAs).

I was irritated with the "lesson" comment from before followed up with the mean versus median without the data on the median. I have published on multilevel statistical approaches and am funded for data analysis projects--so I well know the difference between the median and mean. Anyway, I am glad you posted with player salary data using the median--even though I think their are flaws in the approach (below)—and can move to more substantive concerns.

As I responded to others, rookie scale contracts (Battier) do not reflect market comp like vet free agents, IMO you must base comparisons on similarly bidded on contracts (and take them out of the median comparison for it to be most relevant to FAs market value).

I think Posey is far and away our 4th most solid starter and 4th best player on the team. I agree he is below average--but he is at worst like the top of the bottom quarter and probably the bottom of the 2nd quarter (better than or equal to 30% of starting 2's or 3's). In EGs case it is hard to find 4 starting 4s he is better than.

In the comparison I did I found 8-10 starting swingmen out of 42 with market determined contracts than made less than 5 million. I would guess there are at least 15 bench swingmen who also make 5 or more. The average salary for the starters was around 8-9 million last year and the median around 7 million (remember the vast majority of these contracts went up 10%-12% this year) as would Posey’s 4.9 (increase 10%) in future years if the contract if matched.


Raging fire--I took salarys from last year and added this in for perspective (rounded to nearest mil), also identified rookie contracts.

Now as a total player I think is very close to being equal to many on your list--Hardaway, Mike Miller, Mason, Wesley, Prince (Posey is def. better than him right now), Miles (ditto), Williamson, Donyell, KVH, & Kittles--KVH, Kittles and Hardaway all of which have contracts that makes the Memphis offer look like peanuts. The rest I agree their is clear case they are better all around players than Posey--but many, e.g., Tim Thomas, Houston, Spree, Carter, Rose, Robinson and Jones-- are not enough better than him to warrant double the money. I think when you compare value (the player total contributions at his salary)--Posey beats a ton of them. In fact only Harpring, Jackson, Wesley, Bowen, Jordan (gift contract) and Fox (signed for less to be in LA) of the sub-5 mil contracts clearly would have better value than Posey at 4.9.

 

Fine. I really thought I was talking to outsiders. Saying average salary is what average NBA player make is not up to professional level? I guess you just hoped to fool us, right? Your "dream about" comment was eqauly irritating.

Where did you get the $7 mil as the median for starters (I know, after taken out rookie starters). It seems a bit high to me. My impression is $7 will put one right around 60th among all NBA players. But remember among the top 60, some are non-starters. We have 2 on our rosters and other teams also have expensive bench players. After you take out these guys, maybe there are only 45-50 left that are starters. Therefore, I would guess the median contract for non-rookie starters is lower than $7 mil.

Posey's salary grows at 12%. I don't think that is standard among all starters. It is faster than a lot of contracts.

 

It grows at 10% Dr Canoner.

 

I have seen conflicting numbers. I don't really know which is right. Chron article said 24 mil for 4 year. 10% is not gonna to give him 24 mil. Even 12% is not fast enough. Do we have any official words on the numbers?

BTW, skip the "Dr" title please, I am just a Rox fan here.