[ESPN] Rockets relaunching NBA strategy?

The future of the NBA lies in Texas. Not in Dallas, Houston or San Antonio, home to the state's three NBA teams who have won a combined 64.4 percent of their games over the last decade, but farther south to Hidalgo, Texas, located a long 3-pointer across the Rio Grande from Mexico. There, in the NBA's D-League, the Rio Grande Valley Vipers are playing the most extreme professional basketball in America.


spoilered the rest

Spoiler

You might have seen the Vipers' shot chart, which went viral on Twitter after being posted by the D-League.

[+] EnlargeNBA Charts 2
NBA.com/DLeague/StatsRio Grande Valley is quite fond of the 3-point shot.

Nearly half of Rio Grande Valley's shot attempts have come from beyond the 3-point line, but that's not the only thing that sets the team apart statistically. The Vipers are averaging 107.2 possessions per 48 minutes, which not only blows away the fastest mark in the NBA this season (97.5) but is faster than any NBA team has played in the last 20 years.

Since Rio Grande Valley's offense is also hyper-efficient (their rate of 121.0 points per 100 possessions would lead the NBA this season and blow past the 2004-05 Phoenix Suns (117.5) for the best offensive rating since the NBA-ABA merger), the team is averaging a nearly unthinkable 129.4 points per game. Three players score at least 20 points per game, and all five starters are averaging at least 17.1 points.

None of this is happening by accident. Since the Houston Rockets took control of the Vipers' basketball operations under a single-affiliate partnership agreement in 2009, the Rockets front office under GM Daryl Morey has utilized the D-League squad as a laboratory of sorts, a testing ground for ideas they can import to the NBA.

Under Houston management, the Vipers have always relied heavily on the 3-pointer. They also quickly pushed the pace, and have continued to play faster each season (the D-League's average pace is generally trending upwards, but Rio Grande Valley has increased more). While the big club has always tended to play fast and shoot a lot of 3-pointers, it wasn't until last season that the Rockets really mirrored their affiliate's extreme tendencies. It took some time for Houston to get the right personnel in place (this year's team has inevitably slowed down relative to the rest of the league to accommodate Dwight Howard) and get total buy-in from the coaching staff.

VIPERS AHEAD OF THE CURVE
Season RGV Pace HOU Pace RGV 3A% HOU 3A%
2009-10 93.6 (6) 92.7 (6) .286 (1) .265 (4)
2010-11 96.2 (1) 93.0 (7) .334 (1) .264 (5)
2011-12 97.3 (1) 90.5 (11) .348 (1) .240 (13)
2012-13 99.7 (1) 94.7 (1) .315 (1) .349 (2)
2013-14 108.2 (1) 95.1 (5) .496 (1) .352 (1)

As a result, it's fascinating to consider whether this year's Vipers might be a preview of things to come for the Rockets. After hiring Nevada Smith from Division III Keystone College, Rio Grande Valley has taken the twin philosophies of playing fast and emphasizing high-value shots to their logical extremes. According to the new NBA.com/DLeague/Stats, the Vipers took just 36 2-point shots outside the paint during their first eight games. Some 88.1 percent of their shot attempts came either at the rim or behind the 3-point line. That blows away Houston, which leads the NBA by taking 69.5 percent of its shots from those two locations; no other NBA team is above 60 percent.

This leads to an inevitable question: How far can teams increase the number of 3-pointers they shoot? Last year's Knicks set a new league record by taking 35.4 percent of their shots beyond the arc. The Rockets attempted them at the third-highest rate ever, and are on track to shoot them slightly more frequently this season. League-wide, NBA teams are taking 3s on more than a quarter of their shot attempts (25.4 percent) for the first time ever.

Seeing how much further NBA teams can go may require nothing more than looking at the NCAA, where the shorter 3-point line has always been more inviting. In fact, college teams shot 3-pointers as frequently as NBA teams do now all the way back in 1992-93. Long-distance attempts peaked at 34.4 percent of all shots by 2007-08 before the NCAA moved the line back from 19 feet, nine inches to 20 feet, nine inches -- still three feet shorter than the NBA line at its longest. Since then, the NCAA 3-point rate has settled in around 33 percent of all shots taken.

[+] EnlargeNBA Charts 1
ESPN Stats & Information

The superiority of the 3-point shot has long been held by statistical analysts, but the trend toward fast-paced play is a new one. With former Houston assistant GM Sam Hinkie taking over the Philadelphia 76ers this season, the Sixers have supplanted the Rockets as the league's fastest team.

While there are a variety of reasons Philadelphia might want to speed things up during a rebuilding season, as Per Diem partner Tom Haberstroh explored in the first installment of "The Big Number," that both the Rockets, 76ers and the Vipers are playing at fast paces seems to indicate Morey and Hinkie fundamentally believe in it. (The 76ers' D-League team, the Delaware 87s, also is playing at a fast pace and ranks second in the league in 3-point attempt percentage.)

That philosophy has been applied in the NBA before, most notably by Paul Westhead's Denver Nuggets. The difference is that the Rio Grande Valley system has proven more than just a gimmick. The Vipers won their second D-League championship in four years last spring and have started this season 9-0. Thursday's win over the Austin Toros was their 19th consecutive during the regular season (not counting a 6-0 playoff run), tying the D-League record.

The Rockets' style won't be nearly so extreme when they face the Golden State Warriors tonight (10:30 p.m. ET on ESPN). If Rio Grande Valley continues to be so successful, however, expect Houston to continue pushing the pace and hoisting more 3-pointers. And if that works for the Rockets and Sixers, more NBA teams will follow the Vipers' lead.

 

I think you can take this philosophy pretty far, mainly because it is hard to guard the 3 point line because there is so much space to guard.

One thing that I never see mentioned because it is harder to measure - how have we changed our defensive philosophy to account for advanced metrics? In fact, I would argue that we haven't changed much and have a long way to go in that area. We don't do a good job of forcing the other team to play the opposite of the way we play.

 

Thanks for the read.

Good job Morey. Keep pushing the envelope.

 

"entire article"

 

Barkley needs to read this article. I'm tired of his, you live by the three
and die by the three.

 

Very good read. Morey, the NBA's biggest nerd, has made the Rockets so much cooler.

 

If we can keep Daniels under wraps until Feb. 20, I think the chances are vet high that we will sign him to a multi-year minimum salary deal, probably 2 years guaranteed or partially guaranteed with a non-guaranteed 3rd year and if we get lucky, we might get that 4th year non-guaranteed.

 

I sometimes wonder if Morey's metrics don't account for defense as well as offense. Maybe I'm totally wrong, but I get the feeling that he's a lot more comfortable assessing a player's impact on offense and maybe overall production, but not so much when it comes to measuring a player's defensive impact.

 

Players like Omer Asik, Shane Battier and Chandler Parsons might disagree with you.

 

I think Morey is great at judging a player's defensive attributes. I also think he uses data to help defenders become even better. With that said, perhaps he values defense differently than a typical GM because his data shows that offense is the more valuable trait. Which might be the right philosophy in this era, who knows?

It seems like he tries very hard to create a good, efficient offensive team and will settle for a team that is top 10 in defense. I've heard him say "top 10" when referring to defense and building a championship team a handful of times.

 

Yeah, that's probably the best way of putting it. Defense matters, but offense matters more.

 

They account for both, though obviously it's harder to quantify defense than offense since defense relies so much on defensive schemes.

Improving offense through metrics is FAR easier in most cases since improving shot selection in a relatively simple task.

Shoot too many open 19 footers? Take a couple steps back and shoot a 3 pointer for 50% more points.
Shoot too many 13 footers? Take a few steps forward and drive into the paint for an easier shot at the rim AND a shot at an And1.
Worried about statistical volatility? Increase the number of shots per game (sample size) and bring your percentages closer to your true shooting percentages.

Aside from that, faster pace has the benefit of creating easier shots as teams have a difficult time getting into a set defense while in transition. Tom Thibodeau's genius defense don't mean squat if Chandler Parsons is 15 feet ahead of everyone else and getting a cross court pass for a dunk or setting for a 3 pointer already.

And then there's the tired legs factor. You force a bunch of 30 year old players to run up and down the court 220+ times per game at break neck speed and you'll destroy them.

Older teams are filled with Vets. They're loaded with experience and savvy. You beat them by NOT letting them use their savvy. You don't let them beat you through superior defensive set execution. You make it harder for them to beat you on offense by making them dead tired from all the running.

It's the equivalent of making every game feel like playing in Denver.

Attack an opponent's weaknesses, use your own strengths.

 

Chandler Parsons might disagree with you...

 

Remember when the entire league was laughing at the Asik signing? It's definitely something they are good at.

 

Meh gimme a deadly midrange shooter please , don't want to be to predictable on offense

 

Knicks perfect example of this as well as Houston

 

You do know that older veteran teams are usually the ones that win championships right..??? Miami and San Antonio are amongst the oldest teams in the league and they played for the championship. You don't win championships in the NBA by constantly jacking up 3's.