ESPN-Ranking top-tier free agents

Regardless of whether there is a lockout, many NBA free agents eventually will look for homes. Chris Palmer offers his take on the top-tier free agents this offseason in the first of three installments of ESPN Insider's Free Agent Buyer's Guide.
Although not as heralded as the LeBron James-led 2010 free-agent class, 2011's group has some top-level targets whom teams will look to sign. We evaluated the top tier, ranking its players in order and according to the following categories:
Game-changer: five stars
Franchise cornerstone: four stars
Starter: three stars
Role player: two stars
Second unit: one star
1. Tyson Chandler, C, Dallas Mavericks

A year ago, Chandler was slogging through a season with the Charlotte Bobcats, posting some of the worst numbers of his career. A year later, it's hard to think of a player who upped his value more in the postseason with his work on the defensive side of the ball than Chandler did. His intensity and aggression proved to be the linchpin to the Mavericks' impressive defense, as he helped shut down LeBron James in the Finals. Chandler also showed few ill effects from the ankle injury that had bothered him for much of the two previous seasons and clearly established himself as one of the best defensive anchors in the league. Bonus: He's still just 28 years old.
Downside: If you're seeking scoring punch or a big who can create his own shot, look elsewhere. That's simply not a part of his game. Most of his 10 points per game come from catching alley-oops and scoring on cleanup buckets on the offensive glass.
Stars: four
<center><hr style="width:50%;"></center>2. Nene, C, Denver Nuggets

An absolute brute of a physical banger, Nene is stepping into the prime of his career. His 2010-11 averages of 14.5 points per game and 7.6 rebounds per game hovered right around career highs. His .615 shooting percentage from the field was highest for players averaging 14 points or more. With an activity level close to that of Chandler and a pure enthusiasm for the game, Nene would make a good fit just about anywhere. He does an excellent job keeping the ball alive on the offensive glass by tipping it out to teammates, and at 6-foot-11, 250 pounds, he provides tremendous size up front. Reliable centers are hard to come by, and that's a huge bargaining chip for the big man.
Downside: Durability is an issue. He's played the full 82 games only once in nine career seasons.
Stars: four
<center><hr style="width:50%;"></center>3. Marc Gasol, C, Memphis Grizzlies

A big, tough, smart center, Gasol made some great strides this past season, and his value has risen for a third straight year. His regular-season numbers were a touch off in 2010-11, but there's no question that Gasol has evolved as a player. His unselfishness and excellent passing skills -- particularly from the elbow when looking for backdoor cutters -- would be a plus in any offense. Much like his older brother Pau, he has a feathery touch and accuracy up to 20 feet. At 7-1, 265 pounds, Gasol can bang with the biggest bodies and has excellent shot-blocking skills that only continue to improve. Gasol has transformed himself from a rookie project to a highly sought-after franchise cornerstone. He will command quite a bit of attention from potential suitors.
Downside: His lack of athleticism in a league where athletes thrive is a problem. When Gasol steps out on shooters, he's consistently beaten to the rim.
Stars: four
<center><hr style="width:50%;"></center>4. David West, F, New Orleans Hornets

Just call him the big question mark. In the midst of yet another quality season (18.9 points and 7.6 rebounds), West went down with a grisly, potentially career-threatening injury to his left knee in March. It ended his season and clouded his value on the open market. The ACL injury comes at a terrible time for West, who's in the prime of his career and will be an unrestricted free agent July 1.
Looking past the knee, West is a dead-eye shooter from 20 feet and has several quality inside moves, the most effective of which is his jump hook after a hard shoulder fake. The eighth-year player also provides quality muscle underneath that helps keep the Hornets afloat against bigger front lines. He's not the best interior defender around, but that hasn't stopped the Hornets from ranking in the upper third in team defense the past couple of seasons.
Downside: The uncertainty surrounding the knee. Teams will be jittery about investing big cash in a player who might never be the same.
Stars: four (if he's healthy)
<center><hr style="width:50%;"></center>5. Thaddeus Young, F, Philadelphia 76ers

Despite constantly shifting roles, Young has been able to adapt and remain a solid contributor in Philadelphia. The Sixers' coaching staff regards him as highly coachable and motivated in getting the most out of his ability. Young has been mired in a bit of a position crisis the past couple of years, essentially coming off the bench to spell forwards Andre Iguodala and Elton Brand. At 6-8, Young still is a bit undersized as a starting power forward but makes up for it with his athletic ability and an improving outside shot. When he's able to consistently hit the 18- to 20-foot jumper and stretch defenses, he's sure to see his minutes go up. The Sixers believe he can become an All-Star and possibly a 20-point scorer with some more polish to his game.
Downside: His ceiling could be deceptively lower than once thought. His minutes and scoring average have dropped for a second straight season, which is atypical for a rising young player with vast potential.
Stars: three
<center><hr style="width:50%;"></center>6. Jamal Crawford, G, Atlanta Hawks

The saying goes that the former Sixth Man of the Year can shoot you in or out of any game. There's a lot of truth to that, but when plugged into the right system, he's a valuable scoring option who can provide consistent punch off the bench, as he's shown for much of his stay in Atlanta. Crawford is an explosive guard who can score loads of points in a hurry. If a team can figure out how to work him into a game plan without his dominating the ball, he can be a real asset. Crawford thrives coming off screens and is one of the best at creating his own shot off the dribble. The fact that he has a rep for getting along well with teammates and is willing to come off the bench is a plus. A championship contender could do a lot worse than Crawford as a sixth man.
Downside: What you see is what you get. Crawford has never been labeled a defensive ace, and that likely won't change.
Stars: two

 

No problem... here are few more Insider articles on FA:

David Thorpe on the "best bargains"...

We've discussed who the top-tier free agents are, as well as some guys that teams should be warned about. Now we'll take a look at some players worth considering as potential bargains. Quite simply, these are guys that can produce beyond what I'd consider their current perceived value.
So here they are, my top bargains in free agency:
1. Glen Davis, F, Boston Celtics

Davis embodies an accomplished role player with excellent career numbers, in terms of wins and big plays made in important games. He's considered a good locker room guy, easy to get along with and open to coaching from the staff and veteran players. Now that he's a respected vet himself and has played in dozens of tense playoff games despite being just 25, teams needing "glue guys" will target Davis as someone who can do more than just play a role. He brings all those "war" stories with him, not to mention a vast knowledge of how to play elite-level team defense.
2. Kyrylo Fesenko, C, Utah Jazz

Fesenko always has been a player who has underachieved, but that does not mean it always has to be that way. He's a huge, huge man who is nimble, and he will not turn 25 until December. That means he still has considerable development potential. Even if he does not get better overall, he already is a guy who can greatly improve a team's defense. His sheer size make things difficult inside for opponents, and he typically plays with energy. "Fes" still is immature but is not a guy prone to lazy efforts.
3. C.J. Miles, F, Utah Jazz

Miles is just 24 years old despite having six seasons under his belt. He made moderate improvement last season and still has room for growth, specifically as a shooter. Because he's always played under one system, there is reason to believe he can be a better player when playing in a different system; of course, the opposite could be true as well. Miles is also a capable defender and, with as much experience as he has in the NBA, should be able to adapt to any system, at either end of the floor.
4. Earl Clark, F, Orlando Magic

The only lottery pick on this list, and deservedly so, Clark is a victim of his own talents, in a sense. Indeed, he's a very gifted player. He's almost a clone of the Lakers' Lamar Odom, who, because the game comes so easily to him, had to learn how to be an effective player over time. Clark has the same problem, as the league is all about grinding and Clark has never had to do anything like that. But he has the talent to be a plus-plus defender, using length and feel to make things difficult as an on-ball defender or in help situations.
5. Alexis Ajinca, C, Toronto Raptors

Ajinca probably represents the most risk of these five players. There remains the possibility that he's not going to be good enough to help a team in Europe, much less the NBA. But he does have serious talent, even if it's mostly hidden. Super long and possessing a good touch inside, Ajinca showed some promise a few summer leagues ago and during the past season. He turned 23 in May, and as he gets stronger he should be able to play better defense without fouling. The saying "big men develop the latest" is largely true, and like Fesenko, Ajinca could end up figuring things out and become a rotation player.


Also, Kevin Pelton on "risky signings"...


Buyer beware in free agency. Last July, the New Jersey Nets gave Travis Outlaw the biggest contract of the four free agents they signed after striking out on the summer's big prizes, while the Phoenix Suns lured Josh Childress back from Greece with a five-year deal as part of a sign-and-trade with the Atlanta Hawks. Less than 12 months later, both teams would love to get out of those contracts. After colleague Chris Palmer looked at the top-tier guys, here's a warning that the history of free agency shows more misses than hits. Which players could be risky signings this summer? Here are five who appear overvalued.
J.J. Barea, PG, Dallas Mavericks

Let's start by giving Barea his credit. Without his energy and scoring off the bench and as a starter during the NBA Finals, the Mavericks would not be champions. Still, Barea projects a little like a college star who gets hot during the NCAA tournament and ends up being overdrafted. His player efficiency rating increased from 14.8 during the regular season to 16.8 in the playoffs -- higher still after the opening round, when Barea struggled against the Portland Trail Blazers.
Other teams considering Barea also need to remember that he won't be able to bring Dirk Nowitzki with him. A lot of Barea's success running the high pick-and-roll was due to the attention defenses had to pay to Nowitzki's shooting ability. The numbers on Nowitzki's influence are striking. Per NBA.com StatsCube, Barea shot 44 percent from the field during the playoffs with Nowitzki on the floor but just 24 percent when the Finals MVP was on the bench.
Jeff Green, F, Boston Celtics

Still a couple of years from reaching his peak, Green should be an ideal alternative to the fading veterans so common in free agency. Yet instead of getting better during his mid-20s, Green has stagnated or even gone backward in his development. His flaws were spotlighted after he was dealt to Boston by the Oklahoma City Thunder at midseason in a deal unpopular among Celtics fans. Green failed to win over the skeptics with his performance and was largely a nonfactor during the postseason.
Green was more or less the same player in Boston he was in Oklahoma City, but the bigger stage exposed a national audience to the shortcomings that led the Thunder to deem him expendable. It also dispelled the notion that Green's issue was playing out of position as a power forward for Oklahoma City. Green played both forward positions with the Celtics, and as a small forward, his poor outside shooting tended to shrink the floor on offense. The danger is that Boston invested so much in Green that the front office will feel the need to re-sign him as a restricted free agent.
Jason Richardson, SG, Orlando Magic

Richardson turned 30 in January, and that's a dangerous time for swingmen of his ilk. Seventy-two percent of players with a similarity score of 95 or higher to Richardson, based on our SCHOENE Projection System, declined the following season. On average, their overall performance dropped off by nearly 10 percent. Michael Finley, one of Richardson's closest matches, is a good example of what might lie ahead for Richardson. Finley's last above-average season came at age 31, and a year after that, the Mavericks used the amnesty provision in the 2005 collective bargaining agreement to waive him.
As he moves into his 30s, Richardson can continue to offer value as a shooting specialist in a more limited role, such as Finley played for the San Antonio Spurs. Other players similar to Richardson, such as Byron Scott and Dan Majerle, had second careers as reserves. The problem is that Richardson's next contract might pay him more like the starter he has been throughout his NBA career.
Tyson Chandler, C, Dallas Mavericks

Colleague Chris Palmer ranked Chandler as the top free-agent target this offseason, and with good reason: He was even more important than Barea to Dallas' playoff run. He was arguably the second-best player on the NBA champion team. But there are reasons for potential buyers to be wary, most notably the fact that Chandler's performance has been so inconsistent from year to year. The previous two seasons, Chandler was a below-average player, which led the New Orleans Hornets and Charlotte Bobcats to trade him away in consecutive summers.
It's not necessarily that Chandler focused in a contract year so much as his performance tends to be unpredictable. He was terrific his first two years with the Hornets before slipping badly in 2008-09. Injuries that cost Chandler more than 30 games both seasons were surely a factor, as his rebounding declined before bouncing back with the Mavericks. When Chandler is right, he is one of the league's better centers. However, whoever signs Chandler cannot count on his being healthy throughout the lifetime of his next contract.
Nick Young, SG, Washington Wizards

No statistic tends to be overvalued in free agency more than scoring, so Young's gaudy average of 17.4 points per game last season figures to catch the eye of some team. Young's scoring substantially overstates his value. His efficiency actually wasn't bad; he made 38.7 percent of his 3-point attempts and shot 81.6 percent from the foul line. Add in how rarely Young turned the ball over, and he was an above-average scorer.
The problem is that Young doesn't provide a team anything but points. He's a poor rebounder for a shooting guard, and just three regular players at the position handed out assists less frequently. Add in Young's indifferent effort on defense, and he's the NBA equivalent of a candy bar: all empty calories. Even in his breakout campaign, he rated below replacement level.