Link Is there a consensus No. 1 prospect in this year's draft? Is there a consensus anything in this year's draft? Of course, the word "consensus" is a bit of a joke. We are a week away from the draft and there are still major debates running internally within every front office in the league. If teams can't agree, internally, on the order of draft prospects, how can we create a "consensus" ranking? As hard as it is for NBA draftniks to believe, there is very little agreement within teams, let alone between them, on draft night. This year is especially difficult. There aren't any elite players at the top of the draft and then there is enormous parity from the late lottery to the early second round. Many prospects are all over the board. I've been doing this a long time, and I've never seen so little agreement so close to the draft. Obviously, the draft is an inexact science, despite concerted attempts to create analytical models that are more predictive of a player's future success. I've read through a number of those models, and they don't agree on anything either. NBA teams watch prospects play thousands of hours of games. They go to practices. Go to camps. Hire guys from MIT to create statistical solutions. Work out players, give them psychological tests, do background checks and conduct personal interviews. And still, there is very little consensus. Factor in the debate between taking the best player available versus filling team needs, and the situation muddies itself further. To make sense of all of this, the past few years I've chronicled a draft ranking system employed by several teams called the tier system. In the tier system, teams group players, based on overall talent, into tiers. Then the teams rank the players in each tier based on team need. This system allows teams to draft not only the best player available, but also the player who best fits a team's individual needs. So what do the tiers look like this year? After talking to several GMs and scouts whose teams employ this system, here is how the tiers look this year. (Note: Players are listed alphabetically in each tier.) _______________ Tier 1 Players: None Note: This category is usually reserved for guys who are sure-fire All-Stars and franchise players. Since 2009, only Blake Griffin, John Wall and Anthony Davis have been ranked in this slot. This year, there just isn't anyone who looks like a "sure-fire" anything. _______________ Tier 2 Players: None Note: Tier 2 is reserved for players who are projected as potential All-Stars by scouts. They are typical high lottery picks in a normal draft. Last year Bradley Beal, Harrison Barnes, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist all got the nod as Tier 2 players. In 2011, Kyrie Irving and Derrick Williams were in this tier. This year, I couldn't get a majority of teams to project anyone in this draft as a potential All-Star. Nerlens Noel, Ben McLemore and Anthony Bennett all got a vote or two from teams that had them in Tier 2. But the overwhelming majority of teams I talked to had these players all ranked as Tier 3 prospects. This is the first draft tiers column I've ever done where there no players ranked in Tier 2. _______________ Tier 3 Players: Anthony Bennett Alex Len Ben McLemore Nerlens Noel Victor Oladipo Otto Porter Jr. Note: These are the top six guys in the draft. Noel, Bennett and McLemore each received a small amount of votes for Tier 2, but the majority of teams I spoke with had them in Tier 3. This is one of the very few places in the draft that you'll find consensus. While there are a few exceptions, there's a very good chance that these six players will be the first six players to hear their names called on draft night. Teams have these six ordered differently depending on team needs or whether they are looking for immediate help or upside, but every team I spoke with had these six as their top six in some order. _______________ Tier 4 Players: Steven Adams Trey Burke Michael Carter-Williams Kentavious Caldwell-Pope C.J. McCollum Cody Zeller Note: After Tier 3, the consensus breaks down pretty quickly. These are typical late-lottery to mid-first-round selections in a normal draft -- selections 10-20. In this draft this group is more likely to be drafted in the 7-14 range. Trey Burke, C.J. McCollum and Michael Carter-Williams got a small number of votes for Tier 3. But the majority of teams had them ranked in Tier 4. Zeller was ranked in Tier 4 by every team I spoke with. Caldwell-Pope and Adams had some Tier 5 votes, but the majority were in Tier 4. _______________ Tier 5 Players: Giannis Antetokounmpo Reggie Bullock Isaiah Canaan Allen Crabbe Gorgui Dieng Jamaal Franklin Rudy Gobert Archie Goodwin Erick Green Tim Hardaway Jr. Pierre Jackson Sergey Karasev Shane Larkin Ricardo Ledo C.J. Leslie Tony Mitchell Shabazz Muhammad Mike Muscala Lucas Nogueira Kelly Olynyk Mason Plumlee Glen Rice Jr. Dennis Schroeder Tony Snell Jeff Withey Nate Wolters Note: This next group is the largest Tier 5 I've ever had, and it shows where the strength of the draft is. There is incredible depth here, and it's not uncommon to hear teams say that the player you draft at No. 35 might be as good as the player you get at No. 15. There is a whopping 25 players in this group. At least seven of these players won't hear their names called in the first round. A few teams had Antetokounmpo, Karasev, Muhammad and Nogueira in Tier 4, but not quite enough for them to make the cut. Interestingly, Ledo got two votes for Tier 4 and is a guy who clearly has been impressing people in workouts. _______________ Tier 6 Players: Alex Abrines Lorenzo Brown Jackie Carmichael James Ennis Colton Iverson Livio Jean-Charles Grant Jerrett Myck Kabongo Ray McCallum Nemanja Nedovic Phil Pressey Andre Roberson B.J. Young Note: This tier has the players who were listed as top 60 prospects by the majority of the teams I spoke with. Of the group, only Abrines, Jerrett and Pressey got some Tier 5 votes. _______________ Like every draft system, the tier system isn't perfect. But the teams that run it have had success with it. It has allowed them to get help through the draft without overreaching. Compared to traditional top-30 lists or mock drafts, it has proven to be a much more precise tool of gauging which players a team should draft.
Where were the Rockets rookies-- Jones, White, Robinson, DMo and Lamb-- in last year's and 2011's Chad Ford tier system?
Tier 2 Harrison Barnes Bradley Beal Michael Kidd-Gilchrist Thomas Robinson Note: Tier 2 is reserved for players who likely are locks for the top half of the lottery and whom scouts project as very good starters or potential All-Stars. Robinson, Beal and Kidd-Gilchrist got the nod for Tier 2 from every GM I spoke with. Barnes, who has been rising on draft boards the past few weeks after some stellar athletic testing numbers at the NBA draft combine, was on 75 percent of the lists. Tier 4 John Henson Perry Jones III Terrence Jones Jeremy Lamb Meyers Leonard Kendall Marshall Austin Rivers Terrence Ross Jared Sullinger Tyler Zeller Note: After Tier 3, it's very difficult to find a real consensus here. There are 10 players here for a total of five spots left in the lottery. A few players, such as Lamb and Rivers, got a few votes in Tier 3. A few others, such as Marshall, got some Tier 5 votes. But in general, this group makes up the 10-20 range of the draft. (We should note that I received some of these responses before GMs had a chance to review Sullinger's physical. He is in Tier 5 on some teams' boards now.) Tier 5 Moe Harkless Fab Melo Quincy Miller Arnett Moultrie Andrew Nicholson Marquis Teague Royce White Tony Wroten Jr. Note: This next group looks like locks for the first round, but most likely won't make the lottery. A few teams had Harkless, Melo and Moultrie in Tier 4 but not quite enough for them to make the cut. Wroten and Miller were borderline picks here. Both players dropped out of the top 30 on at least one NBA team's draft board. Tier 6 Furkan Aldemir Will Barton Jared Cunningham Festus Ezeli Evan Fournier Draymond Green John Jenkins Orlando Johnson Doron Lamb Kyle O'Quinn Kostas Papanikolaou Miles Plumlee Jeff Taylor Tyshawn Taylor Note: This is what I would call the first-round bubble group and where the consensus really started to break down. A few teams had Fournier, Green, Jeff Taylor and Barton in Tier 5, but many did not. Overall there are just four spaces left in the first round ... so most of the players on this list are falling to the second round.
Tier 5 Davis Bertans (17-29) Marshon Brooks (13-20) Kenneth Faried (13-21) Jordan Hamilton (11-19) Tobias Harris (14-22) Tyler Honeycutt (18-30) Reggie Jackson (17-31) Nikola Mirotic (20-30) Darius Morris (21-35) Markieff Morris (13-19) Donatas Motiejunas (12-20) Josh Selby (17-28) Nikola Vucevic (14-21)
Lillard was missing from last year's ranking? Terrence Jones was in tier3 of Kelvin Pelton's system. This draft is top weak but deep.
Judging by the parts that JR posted, it sounds like Chad Ford changed the definition of Tier 2 for dramatic purposes. Last year - "very good starters or potential All-Stars", this year - "potential All-Stars". For example, I have a very hard time believing that majority of teams don't see Otto Porter as "very good starter". He seems like such a nobrainer safe prospect. Smart, high character, big, long, fairly athletic, high motor, quite skilled all around, unselfish, good D, can pass and score. Very reminiscent of Danny Granger back in 2005. I just can't see how he fails. Potential All Star - maybe, maybe not. Very good starter - heck yes.
I've been waiting for this Chad Ford piece for a while now, as I agree with him about the tier system being a much better indicator of where a draft's value lies (as opposed to mock drafts). As I suspected, the Rockets' pick (#34) falls within the same tier (Tier 5) as some of the late lottery and mid-first round picks. Also, Ford reiterated my understanding that this year's draft is mainly just weak AT THE TOP but that it offered very good value in the late first/early second round. I'm excited to see who the Rockets get in the draft . . . whether that's at #34 or elsewhere. Also, in before the "[Rookie X Taken at #34] is going to be a major rotation piece!" talk. If this pick is another Chandler Parsons or Chase Budinger, great. But more likely than not, the pick will be spending his time between the Vipers and the end of the bench next year. Hopefully, that player will EVENTUALLY become a rotation guy for the Rockets . . . or a valuable trade asset! (Also, in before Carl Herrera hits me with a "white guy" reference re: my Parsons/Budinger comment above.)
I do like having the #34 in this draft because of the reasons you described. However, of certain roster moves happen that clear lots of roster spots, it is possible for our pick to become a rotation player based more on necessity. Which I wouldn't mind at all if that were the case.
This makes me much more excited about the draft. Granted, I don't expect our pick to contribute much next season, but I'm excited that the odds are good that we could pick up a future contributor.
Wouldn't surprise me if we wound up with multiple second round picks in this draft and/or possibly even a lottery pick.
Yeah, I'm predicting the Rockets will (a) buy another second round pick and/or (b) dump Royce White's contract. I think the Rockets will put to work some/most of the $2.1 million remaining in their Maximum Annual Cash Limit. Les Alexander is typically very generous in this regard.
Entire $2.1 million gone on June 30th. I"m rethinking all my possible acquisitions right now. I really thought Morey would try to accumulate some more non-guaranteeds, possibly flip Brooks and/or Delfino for non-guaranteeds. But I'm thinking after the KG/DeAndre/Doc debacle today that the trade waters are going to be quite treacherous. I am sooooo glad this is the last of David Stern. And I hope Adam Silver is a different kind of leader.
Two things jumped out... first, Ford's groupings were pretty accurate last year. Sure, you can point to TRob, but I am still hopeful he shows something next year, but moving him down to the next group would be as far down you can argue. So... I'd go along with Ford's groupings this year too. And second... if there was a year to not have a #1 pick, this is it.
I seriously don't know why people were impressed with T-Rob as a top 5 pick, arguably he was top 10 talent. Now back to this draft. It's seriously weird that that many GMs and people feel there's nobody even worthy of tier 2. I think this draft is particularly one where you can find a few gems that people will look back in a few years as a very good though very underrated draft class.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>Anyone who says they know who will succeed from '13 draft is full of it-lots of talent but as usual will hinge on role/opportunity/workethic</p>— Daryl Morey (@dmorey) <a href="https://twitter.com/dmorey/statuses/348475781510479872">June 22, 2013</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Translation - in this draft, its almost as safe to draft a Euro than a College player. And that's not even very safe.
Sounds like to me there are probably a lot of potentially good players but just not good enough so not able to say they are definitely going to make it. A lot of risks with a big chance of little reward, but I'm sure Morey is looking at certain players that are a bit under the radar.
Like Livio Jean-Charles or Robert Covington, I pray for it. Spoiler projected as #40-50 pick [youtube]m8EJsvmpbGc[/youtube] projected as #30-40 pick [youtube]mIhSZzUp3dA[/youtube]
