[ESPN] NFL Future Power Rankings

J.R. · Jun 19, 2013

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Long-term, sustainable success. It's the goal of every NFL franchise. And while some have realized it in recent years -- the Pittsburgh Steelers, Green Bay Packers, New York Giants and New England Patriots, to name a few -- it has proved equally elusive to others who have chased football's biggest prize with a short-term, win-now mindset only to butt-fumble away their long-term growth (see: Jets, New York).

ESPN Insider's NFL Future Power Rankings are an attempt by our expert analysts to measure the confidence they have in each franchise as it projects three seasons ahead. It is not a predicted order of finish for the 2016 season, but rather a barometer tracking where each franchise is heading. And from our first installment of the project last summer to now, we've already seen some organizations make great strides towards becoming a Super Bowl contender, while others have slipped back towards square one.

In evaluating each team, our analysts broke down five facets deemed critical to the long-term health of a franchise:

• The roster (minus the QB) as it projects in 2016, emphasizing players 27 and younger
• The franchise quarterback as he projects in 2016
• The strength of a team's 2013 draft picks and their available picks in future drafts
• The reputation and performance of the front office
• The stability and acumen of a team's coaching staff

Our experts -- Herm Edwards, Mel Kiper, Mike Sando, Gary Horton, Matt Williamson and Field Yates -- ranked each franchise from 1-10 across the five categories, then provided a breakdown for each team. Former NFL GM Bill Polian abstained from the ranking, but offered his insights for the front office analysis below. Using a weighted formula (explained briefly in the sidebar to the right, and in more detail here) we generated our final rankings.

CATEGORIES (weighting)

ROSTER (32.5 percent): Quality of current roster excluding QB, emphasizing young players and devaluing players over 30 in 2015

QUARTERBACK (17.5 percent): Team's QB situation, focusing on the future

DRAFT (15 percent): Evaluating each team's 2012 draft class, reputation in the draft and number of available draft picks in 2013, '14 and '15

FRONT OFFICE (15 percent): Ability to manage team's roster and bring in new talent via free agency or trades, plus market's attraction to free agents

COACHING (20 percent): Capability and stability of coaching staff

For a full breakdown of the NFL Future Power Rankings methodology, click here.
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Here are the NFL Future Power Rankings:

1. San Francisco
2. Green Bay
3. Seattle
4. Baltimore
5. New England
6. Atlanta
7. New York Giants
T-8. St. Louis Rams
T-8. Indianapolis Colts
10. New Orleans
11. Denver
12. Kansas City
13. Cincinnati
14. Pittsburgh
15. Houston

Roster: On the defensive side of the ball they are loaded with playmakers, especially in the front seven. Guys such as J.J. Watt, Brian Cushing, Whitney Mercilus and others should be productive for a long time and there is solid depth here, especially at linebacker. The offense may be a different story, as most of their playmakers are veterans like Andre Johnson, who will be near the end of their careers in 2016. They need strong offensive drafts in the next couple of years. -- Horton

Quarterback: The Texans' non-QB roster ranked eighth, at least six spots higher than the rankings for any of the teams ranked lower than Houston overall. Quarterback Matt Schaub, running back Arian Foster and Johnson all have contracts set to expire after the 2016 season, but there's no real sense this group is going to win a championship together. Schaub has proven to be competent, but he might have found his ceiling. -- Sando

Draft: The jury is still out on draft returns from 2010 and 2012, but the selection of Watt in 2011 -- drafted one spot behind Blaine Gabbert -- could turn into a legendary pick given his early pace. Houston did a nice job in 2013, but it's hard to imagine what this offense would have been like without the services of Johnson in recent years, and finding solutions to keep the passing game effective could be the big question going forward. If 2013 pick DeAndre Hopkins emerges, we could have the answer to that question. -- Kiper

Front office: Gary Kubiak and Rick Smith have built a team that fits their system (particularly that of defensive coordinator Wade Phillips) very well. The addition of Ed Reed and the unheralded additions of Shane Lechler and Greg Jones in free agency were very good moves, though Reed is just a short-term fix. The return from injury of Cushing will help the defense. The key question is can Schaub make this team a genuine contender instead of simply a good team? -- Polian

Coaching: I have to give a lot of credit to owner Bob McNair for sticking with Kubiak. There were calls for his head after the team went 6-10 a couple years ago, but under Kubiak's leadership they have won the AFC South and a playoff game in each of the past two seasons. He's done a good job of coaching and hiring Wade Phillips has helped out the defense. The next step for Kubiak is getting Schaub to play at a higher level in the playoffs. -- Edwards
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16. Washington
17. Philadelphia
18. Tampa Bay
19. Minnesota
20. Miami
21. Detroit
22. Chicago
23. Carolina
24. Dallas
25. San Diego
26. Arizona
27. Cleveland
28. Tennessee
29. Buffalo
30. Jacksonville
31. Oakland
32. New York Jets

juicystream · Jun 19, 2013

Washington seems low to me. They had 2 great rookies at QB & RB, and made the playoffs.

My Titans are way down there. Unfortunately its hard to disagree. As much as I like Locker, he's never going to be accurate enough to be a top level QB.

Ziggy · Jun 19, 2013

This should include cap flexibility, unless "capability" under coaching is what that means (what?). I thought GB was hamstrung for awhile.

getbloodyred · Jun 19, 2013

Schaub is holding us back big time.

underoverup · Jun 19, 2013

juicystream said: ↑

Washington seems low to me. They had 2 great rookies at QB & RB, and made the playoffs.
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I agree, plus they have a HOF coach.

J.R. · Jun 19, 2013

 

Roster: Currently, much of Washington's roster is composed of players either past their prime or who have yet to reach the apex of their careers. Those past their prime (London Fletcher, DeAngelo Hall) should be long gone three years from now and the younger current core could be thriving. The key will be continuing to infuse young talent behind players like Brian Orakpo, Pierre Garcon, Alfred Morris and Trent Williams. While no one in Washington regrets trading for Robert Griffin III, the draft picks in that the deal, along with salary-cap violations, have handcuffed this front office in acquiring new young talent. -- Williamson

Quarterback: The Redskins ranked sixth in our rankings at quarterback, but they gave up a ton to acquire RG III and I wonder if they'll be able to surrond him with enough talent. RG III took too many hard hits while running as a rookie and perhaps the ACL injury he suffered in the playoffs will convince him to reduce the risks. Griffin will still be the Redskins' franchise quarterback in 2016, but how strong will the franchise itself be? His situation feels more tenuous than the ones for fellow 2012 draftees Luck and Wilson. -- Sando

Draft: The Redskins have paid a major draft price to secure RG III, but unless health becomes a lingering issue, I have a hard time believing they'll regret it. And yet draft returns from both this year and next year are simply going to lag behind other teams -- there's no way around it. It certainly affects their ability to find significant impact at a low cost over the next few seasons. The Skins are again without a first-round pick in 2014, but return to normal in 2015. -- Kiper

Front office: The Skins, under GM Bruce Allen and head coach Mike Shanahan, have become -- after a long time in the wilderness -- both relevant and a contender. The offense, as always under Shanahan, will manufacture yards in the running game and they'll do it with an offensive line made up of castoffs and no-names. If Kirk Cousins (and Redskins fans would say "God forbid!") has to play for any length of time, they will remain productive and efficient. More about RG III's health later. Defensively, this is a group with a solid front seven with exceptional rushers Orakpo and Ryan Kerrigan. When healthy they provide as good a rush tandem as there is. The problem is the secondary. If this team is to make it all the way, the defense, which was 30th last year in pass defense, must improve. Now, back to RG III. All the rookie kudos were well earned. But as my good friend Tony Dungy was wont to say, the most important ability is availability. The Redskins, and particularly Shanahan, must find a way -- as much as possible -- to keep this once-in-a-lifetime athlete out of harm's way. He can beat you with his arm. He can beat you with his feet. And he can beat you with his heart. But he has to be on the field to do it. As long as RG III is healthy, "Hail to the Redskins" will be sung frequently in our nation's capital. -- Polian

Coaching: Shanahan has been an excellent head coach for a long time. His zone blocking scheme has made stars out of ordinary running backs, and Morris is the latest in a long line of them. Shanahan finally has his most talented QB since John Elway in RG III. This team will go as RG III goes, and Shanahan knows that he needs to protect him and this defense by running the ball. -- Edwards
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