ESPN: Lowry 4th best PG in NBA

omgTHEpotential · Jan 9, 2014

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>ESPN ranks Kyle Lowry 4th best PG in NBA, ahead of Lillard, Wall, Irving. <a href="http://t.co/c3bT1ST57e">http://t.co/c3bT1ST57e</a></p>— cathalkelly (@cathalkelly) <a href="https://twitter.com/cathalkelly/statuses/421294718773760000">January 9, 2014</a></blockquote>
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Air Langhi · Jan 9, 2014

In case anyone was wondering Goran is 11th and Lin is 25th.

coachbadlee · Jan 9, 2014

Great move Rockets!!

larsv8 · Jan 9, 2014

Man I wish we had Lowry right now.

The team would be amazing.

LosPollosHermanos · Jan 9, 2014

LOL.

Lowry is good but man, he must really be putting out for someone on ESPN.

tinywang · Jan 9, 2014

Here yall go....

Who would we pick if we were choosing up sides on the playground for a game today? Our midseason update of player rankings continues to address that question with the league's most loaded position: point guards. It's been written many times, but the way the professional game is played now, teams can't win without a capable offensive initiator. The defensive rules that open the floor and limit handchecking led to an explosion of pick-and-roll play. The proliferation of floor-spacing deep shooters has given the quick ball handlers working off all those ball screens room to operate.

Gradually, the pace of play has increased and lineups have gotten smaller. Teams began to seek smaller, quicker players who were as much of a scoring threat as they were a playmaker. Finally we reached a juncture where point guard became the most important position on the floor, even if you're a team that uses a non-traditional lead guard to run the offense. This season, once again teams are getting more value out of the point guard position than any other spot on the floor.

As a result, it's harder to crack the top tier of a rankings system like this if you're classified as a point guard. Because there are five positions on the floor, only 50 players can be named as top-10 players at their spot in this rankings series. Currently, 17 point guards rank among the top 50 in TrueWARP.

The summer's point guard rankings can be found here. Each player's "TrueWARP" calculation -- a blend of a player's preseason baseline forecast and his 2013-14 results -- is noted, along with each player's 2013-14 WARP and league-wide rank in WARP for the season to date. Because we're extrapolating from a half-season of real results, the methodology was a little bit different from our forecast-based summer rankings. See the explainer at the end of the article for how these rankings were derived.

Paul

1. Chris Paul | Los Angeles Clippers

TrueWARP: 18.9 | 2013-14 WARP: 8.6 | Overall rank: 3

Early in the season, it looked like Paul was headed for a historically great season. He fell off a bit after that, and now he's on the shelf for three to five weeks with a shoulder separation. Still, he's done more than enough to maintain his top spot from the summer. Everything Paul has done is right smack on target with his lofty career standards.

Curry

2. Stephen Curry | Golden State Warriors

TrueWARP: 17.0 | 2013-14 WARP: 7.5 | Overall rank: 5

The game's most explosive shooter has jumped two spots in the ratings by honing his playmaking skills. Curry's shot has actually been off this season, at least for him. A career 43.8 percent 3-point shooter, Curry is at 39.6 percent this season, no small decline for a player averaging eight 3-point attempts per game. However, his PER is still at a career-best 22.3 thanks to his assist rate. Before this season, Curry's highest average of assists per 36 minutes was 6.8; this season, he's at 9.1.

Westbrook

3. Russell Westbrook | Oklahoma City Thunder

TrueWARP: 12.9 | 2013-14 WARP: 3.9 | Overall rank: 22

Westbrook's first injury didn't affect his projection since all the games he missed were in the playoffs. This season, Westbrook was right on target before being injured. His projected individual winning percentage was .646, and at the time he went down last month, he was at .642. Westbrook's shooting percentages hadn't completely recovered from his layoff, but he made up for that with a bigger effort on the boards, where he was averaging six caroms per contest.

Lowry

4. Kyle Lowry | Toronto Raptors

TrueWARP: 12.2 | 2013-14 WARP: 5.5 | Overall rank: 9

It's tempting to type an appeal for people to just recognize that Lowry is pretty good, but he remains the subject of numerous trade rumors, which kind of undermines that sentiment. Lowry was a controversial pick as the No. 8 point guard in the summer rankings. Since then, he's gone out and played even better than his ATH forecast, and at present ranks ninth in the league in WARP. There have been two primary areas of improvement: Lowry is taking and making more 3s than ever before, and he's posting the lowest turnover rate of his career.

Lillard

5. Damian Lillard | Portland Trail Blazers

TrueWARP: 11.3 | 2013-14 WARP: 5.0 | Overall rank: 12

With a better roster around him, Lillard has taken a big step forward from his Rookie of the Year 2012-13 campaign. He's become more of a scorer than a passer, and more of his possessions are terminating in 3-point shots and free throws, while fewer of them are chalked up to turnovers. He's improved from a league-average 3-point shooter to a knockdown, 45-percent marksman. Simply put, Lillard has played like an All-Star.

Wall

6. John Wall | Washington Wizards

TrueWARP: 10.9 | 2013-14 WARP: 4.2 | Overall rank: 19

We figured the Wizards' fortunes were tied directly to Wall's hoped-for improvement, and the former top pick has come through with a breakout season. He's still not a great shooter, but he's been more selective and thus has reduced his frequency of negative plays. The improvements to Wall's personal stat line are subtle, but the breakout can be found in this fact: Washington is on target to make the postseason for the first time in six seasons.

Irving

7. Kyrie Irving | Cleveland Cavaliers

TrueWARP: 10.9 | 2013-14 WARP: 3.7 | Overall rank: 28

Irving has fallen four spots since the summer as he's struggled to acclimate to the system installed by new coach Mike Brown. Irving has shot worse inside the arc, outside the arc and from the foul line. Not a good combination. However, Irving's true shooting percentage regressed to his career norm during December, and he started January with his most efficient game of the season.

Thomas

8. Isaiah Thomas | Sacramento Kings

TrueWARP: 10.5 | 2013-14 WARP: 4.5 | Overall rank: 16

Thomas has been a per-minute star ever since entering the league, and now he's getting big minutes as the Kings' starting point guard. He's been fantastic. Thomas is shooting a career-best 42.2 percent from deep, and his foul-drawing rate inside the arc ranks 10th among qualifying point guards. Meanwhile, he's handing out assists at a career-best rate. As a result, the revamped Kings have a clear-cut big three on the offensive end in Thomas, DeMarcus Cousins and Rudy Gay.

Lawson

9. Ty Lawson | Denver Nuggets

TrueWARP: 9.7 | 2013-14 WARP: 3.7 | Overall rank: 26

Lawson holds steady as the No. 9 point guard, but he has taken a different route to get there. Playing for the first time in a non-George Karl offense, Lawson has become even more of a driver, and is getting to the line with a career-high frequency. He's kicking out more, as well, and his assist rate is a career best. The trade-off has been a lower shooting percentage and more turnovers. What hasn't changed is that Lawson is Denver's most valuable commodity.

Conley

10. Mike Conley | Memphis Grizzlies

TrueWARP: 9.7 | 2013-14 WARP: 3.8 | Overall rank: 23

Conley's offensive contribution is at a career peak. His WARP indicators are undermined by Memphis' precipitous drop on the defensive end. The Grizzlies have slipped from second to 24th on defense, with a drop from third to 21st in forcing turnovers. That's reflected directly in Conley's defensive rating. That might be unfair, but in a statistical sense you've got to penalize the players on the court even when the real culprit might be standing on the sidelines. (And that refers to Marc Gasol's absence as much as it does to first-time coach Dave Joerger.)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Next five: Goran Dragic, Phoenix Suns; Kemba Walker, Charlotte Bobcats; Michael Carter-Williams, Philadelphia 76ers; Derrick Rose, Chicago Bulls; Eric Bledsoe, Phoenix Suns.

Suns coach Jeff Hornacek has managed the minutes of his two best players -- both point guards -- so well, both Dragic and Bledsoe have played the majority of their minutes at point guard even though they share the floor much of the time. Dragic is the 2-guard in those lineups, but Hornacek has given him plenty of chances to run the show. Carter-Williams is a runaway pick for Rookie of the Year, and his emergence as a top-15 point guard statistically is especially impressive given the number of games he missed, and because his college translations weren't particularly favorable. As for Rose, my system still gives him some love from his former brilliance, but with each new injury, he slips farther and farther back into the pack.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Also notable: 16. Deron Williams, Brooklyn Nets; 17. Brandon Jennings, Detroit Pistons; 18. Jose Calderon, Dallas Mavericks; 19. Tony Parker, San Antonio Spurs; 20. Ricky Rubio, Minnesota Timberwolves; 21. Jrue Holiday, New Orleans Pelicans; 22. Mario Chalmers, Miami Heat; 23. George Hill, Indiana Pacers; 24. Jeff Teague, Atlanta Hawks; 25. Jeremy Lin, Houston Rockets; 26. Patrick Beverley, Houston Rockets.

Parker's No. 13 ranking was the most controversial of any player's rating from the summer series, so I don't expect many warm sentiments stemming from Parker's six-place tumble in the update. The summer ranking wasn't really that bad. As mentioned in the intro, with the NBA being so point guard-heavy, the 13th-ranked point guard is still a top-25 player overall. The earlier rankings were based on a forecast, and the ATH system decided Parker had reached an age when players like him begin to lose value. In the real world, would I have taken 12 point guards before Parker? No -- I watched the Finals just like everybody else.

Parker has done little to boost his rating so far this season. In fact, he currently ranks 81st in the league in 2013-14 WARP. Much of that is by design, and Parker's numbers will probably go up as we near the postseason. He's shooting the 3-ball at a career-best clip, but he's getting to the line less frequently than he has in 10 years. Perhaps because of that more passive approach, Parker's drive-and-kick game has not been as prolific, and his assist rate has dropped to its lowest level in a decade. His minutes are also down. Can he do more? Sure. Will he? Almost certainly. But we can only measure what he has done, not what he's capable of doing.
Click to expand...

DreaMac · Jan 9, 2014

coachbadlee said: ↑

Great move Rockets!!
Click to expand...

Yup. That pick got us Harden. Great move indeed.

el gnomo · Jan 9, 2014

lol Bradford Doolittle was the guy that trolled you all with his rankings last year too.

AirBud#10 · Jan 9, 2014

He's playing really really well, but there's no way you can put him above Lillard or Parker.

RV6 · Jan 9, 2014

I wonder at what point does Lowry become attractive to Morey again (cue weight loss comment by CH).

A backcourt of Lowry and Pat would be pretty awesome, but it's tough to tell if this is just a contract year performance or not.

LosPollosHermanos · Jan 9, 2014

AirBud#10 said: ↑

He's playing really really well, but there's no way you can put him above Lillard or Parker.
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Even Dragic. BSPN is on crack half the time.

Mkieke · Jan 9, 2014

coachbadlee said: ↑

Great move Rockets!!
Click to expand...

Wait...so you'd rather have kept Lowry & lost out on the opportunity to nab Harden? Right.

Swishh · Jan 9, 2014

Really BSPN? Lowry ahead of Lillard, Irving, Parker, Wall, etc?

And Chalmers ahead of Lin and Teague? Parker #19? LMAO! Who hires these clowns?

el gnomo · Jan 9, 2014

Swishh said: ↑

Really BSPN? Lowry ahead of Lillard, Irving, Parker, Wall, etc?

And Chalmers ahead of Lin and Teague? Parker #19? LMAO! Who hires these clowns?
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Like I said, this guy trolled everyone last year and the reactions were similar. Not sure why anyone is surprised

tcadriel · Jan 9, 2014

What....? Beverley is not on the list?

RocketScientist · Jan 9, 2014

No way. Just trending because of the Raptors great play recently.

Little General · Jan 9, 2014

tcadriel said: ↑

What....? Beverley is not on the list?
Click to expand...

Bev is 26th

Little General · Jan 9, 2014

Lowry is overrated

Progs · Jan 9, 2014

tcadriel said: ↑

What....? Beverley is not on the list?
Click to expand...

yeah, he's there at 26

apollo33 · Jan 9, 2014

Okay now he's getting overated lol

this always happens

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