(ESPN) Jeremy Woo: Rockets have interest in Sheppard, with both the FO and ownership intrigued

The hype for Sheppard has definitely gotten a bit silly. He's a nice fit on this roster and if he's the pick, great.

If he were as amazing as he's being made out to be he'd be the consensus #1 pick in a pretty bad draft class.

 

It's the same reason Sengun wasn't a top 3 pick despite being a top 3 talent in his class. While the analytics crowd knew how good he was, the more old school types don't look for the same things and that's how you get overhyped busts.

You're just not going to get a consensus when there's a large disparity between what the smart people think, what the old school types think, and what the casuals think.

 

It's insanity. I really want Reed, but the way these cats are going on it'd probably be best if we didn't get him. He has absolutely zero chance of living up to these ridiculous expectations.

 

No, I do think he'll improve. He'll improve and round out his game to the point where he's a valuable NBA player. I just don't see any path where that NBA player is a full-time starter. He's a tiny SG with basic handles and connective passing who's either going to have to learn to play a position he doesn't currently play (see KPJ and numerous others) OR somebody who's going to have to play his natural position against people who are significantly faster, taller, longer, stronger and more athletic than he is. He doesn't even project himself to be what y'all are projecting him to be, super humble in interviews. Stop putting words into my mouth to frame your weird narratives, I never said he wouldn't improve, I just think his ceiling is "nba roleplayer" with 6moty as his absolute upper peak.

 

What expectations are people giving him that are unrealistic? I think what you're seeing is folk who have watched 3 years of inefficient shooting at the shooting guard spot and our best player being an overlooked analytics darling that was continuously cast aside yet always performing beyond his expectations. In contrast to his teammates which did the exact opposite. They see the same in Reed.

 

I think where we differ is you’re not even differentiating between him and KPJ. I never for one moment thought KPJ could become a PG. I think learning a semi-new position is a difficult task but I think the ones who tend to achieve things like that are simply hard workers off the court. KPJ was not that. Sheppard is allegedly a hard worker all around.

I’m sure Sheppard doesn’t see himself as a career bench guy as you do. As I said, I think the results will end up somewhere between what you’re describing and what his overzealous fans are describing.

I’m not trying to put words in your mouth, I was asking a question. You’re really heated over this dude and it’s not that important to me. Let’s chill on the subject, we debate much better than this usually.

 

It's like when he kept saying Jalen was ultra efficient.

 

LOL, what? That's hilarious insanity. I'm sad I missed that bit of unintentional comedy.

 

This feels like a private conversation somehow leaked with the organization stating, "Nah, nah, we like Clingan" for the trade opportunity.

 

I'll do a list for you:

"Better than Green day one"
"Cp3 with a more lethal shot"
"Nash mixed with Curry"
"One of the greatest shooting prospects of all time"
"Generational"

That's only a partial list too, but I do think it's absolutely beyond ridiculous when we're talking about a 6'3 (in shoes) Shooting Guard with basic handles (called out in pretty much all of his scouting reports) and passing whose tape doesn't show any of the supposed "elite defender" traits he has and he spends more time making risky steal attempts, not staying in front of his man or looking completely lost (like a rookie Jalen Green) off the ball. Like I say, I want Sheppard, but for his sake it's probably better he goes elsewhere because our fanbase will eat him alive within a month when he's not actually an upgrade on Green...

 

I'll take this bit by bit.

"Better than Green day one"

That means next to nothing, Jalen Green is one of the worst players on the roster. I wouldn't want to draft ANYONE if I didn't think they were going to be better than Jalen Green from day one.

"CP3 with a more lethal shot"
"Nash mixed with Curry

Statements like this are intended to describe ceiling projections, not likely outcomes. Either scenario is possible given the skills Sheppard has, but I don't think many are expecting him to hit his absolute ceiling. A more likely scenario is a better FVV.

"One of the greatest shooting prospects of all time"

This is just a fact.....Based on his college shooting numbers in different scenarios and different spots on the court, along with his picture perfect shooting mechanics, there's no denying this obvious fact.....so I'm not sure why you included this one.

"Generational"

As a shooting prospect, he obviously is.

I think some of the problem here is that you clearly didn't actually watch the games....if you did, you wouldn't keep up the "shooting guard with basic handles and passing" shtick. Given that you are clearly operating out of a position of ignorance, it's hard to take you seriously at all.

 

On the passing, could you compare your evaluation of Reed's passing ability relative to guys like Castle (who seems more PG questionable IMO) vs guys like Topic, Kolek, Carrington, etc.? What can those PG types do which Reed can't from a passing standpoint? Similarly, if he's just making regular passes that any regular player can make, could you show me some clips of Tari and Jabari throwing alley-oops passes in the halfcourt....from halfcourt? Or even some skip passes?

I do think he has some self creation concerns (especially in isolation without a ball screen), but I'm not super concerned about that personally with this roster (I'd say FVV is about the same?). So that could limit his PG potential. But his actual vision/passing ability seem more than capable IMO.

Also, his HS stats (the ones I could find) seem...fine to me? Obviously he had a better year in college, but shooting close to ~40% from 3 his last 2 years and close to 90% from the FT line seem like pretty good numbers to me. I don't doubt Steph had better numbers (though not sure what they were exactly), but it isn't like these numbers by Reed were poor or even average. Based on his college year, his mechanics, etc., I don't think it is crazy to call him one of the (if not the) best shooting prospects in the last 5 years or so.

I know some people want to say he is Curry, and yeah that's a little crazy. We probably shouldn't be doing that.

.....we should be saying he is Nash. (OK, I'm kidding)

 

I’m not confident in us drafting Reed. I feel like Boston winning it all is gonna make Ime even more impatient. Really not interested in watching guys like Marcus Smart and Dillon Brooks. I hope the Memphis trade rumors aren’t legit. This team can’t shoot and we may add another non shooter.

 

I wouldn't take Castle tbh, and as I say, Reed is the guy I want. I just don't think he projects as a starting PG, more an off the bench sharpshooter. I'm going to ignore the rest of the straw men in this first bit, it's irrelevant to Reed becoming an NBA starting PG how well Tari and Jabari pass alley oops, are you on drugs?

His high school stats look great, but they don't suggest "greatest shooter who ever lived" when you compare them with the actual greatest shooter and are a lot more mundane. The entire point of that comment from me was that his college shooting, whilst amazing, is on a VERY small sample size from a low-usage bench player. Steph had consistently "crazy" numbers through high school and college on much higher volume. I'd be surprised if Reed gets remotely close to Steph as a shooter/scorer in the NBA, in fact, I'd be pretty shocked if he was even half as good. Jabari Smith Jr also had great shooting numbers in college (better than KD) and he was not remotely close to being some transcendental shooter in the NBA when he came in.

 

I guess when you like a prospect its ok to compare parts of their game to other great players, but if you dont like them then its a disservice or setting too lofty of an expectation.

Im sure nobody in here who's pushing back on the Reed comps said anything about jalen moving like mj and kobe or Jabari having a Ray Allen jump shot or being a 6'11" Klay Thompson

 

My only expectation is that he will be a solid rotation player with a dead eye shot however I must admit I see the possibilities of him being a lot more. He is the analytical darling of this this draft class. If he was 3-4 inches taller he would go #1 without a doubt.

 

We can do that across the board though, that's how weak this draft class is, everybody is a few traits off being a #1 without a doubt. The difference to me is that whilst Sheppard's "special skill" is exactly what we need (and why I want him) the traits/parts of his game that mean he's not the guaranteed #1 pick (height/size, handling/passing/PG skills, no real driving skills worth a ****) are the ones that're also probably going to prevent him being a full-time NBA starter. There's a reason his daft profiles often say things like (direct quotes btw

"In a normal draft, Sheppard probably wouldn't be going in the top 10. He will be, at worst, a good role player, but he doesn't have much equity toward being an All-NBA guard at his peak. Sheppard's athletic limitations are the biggest thing holding him back. At 6-3 with a short wingspan, he doesn't have good NBA size. Life is extremely difficult for a small guard in the NBA. The next level is all about creating mismatches, and Sheppard will be relentlessly targeted due to that short stature."

"NBA teams have been eager to learn Sheppard's exact measurements. Scouts want confirmation on his 6'3", 187-pound listing, which sounds adequate if matched up against point guards. Those numbers become more worrisome when picturing him facing NBA 2-guards or wings, particularly given his presumed lack of length. "

"While Sheppard has shown he can beat defenders in straight lines or separate into pull-ups, he still doesn't possess advanced moves for creation with his handle or footwork. His lack of explosiveness can also make it difficult for him to put pressure on the rim. Regardless of how efficient he was, Sheppard wouldn't be Kentucky's answer if it needed a basket late in the clock. "

"Sheppard is an excellent stationary catch-and-shoot threat, but he didn't give scouts any tape on his ability to drill jumpers off screens/movement. He also didn't record one field goal cutting to the rim all season. If he winds up going to a team that has a ball-dominant point guard, he could be limited throughout games and possibility reduced to just spot-up opportunities."

"Lacks the ideal size and physique for the next level … Despite his ability to make big plays on defense, often finds himself out of position or gambling for a big play … Is not the type of player to be a top option offensively for his team – works best as a glue guy/connector piece … Can struggle to get off shots against good defenses – lacks creation skills … Will occasionally force passes trying to make something happen and it will result in turnovers (averaged 2 turnovers per contest) … Scoring can be very up-and-down from game to game (7 games scoring 20 or more, 12 scoring fewer than 10) … Doesn’t have a lot of moves to breakdown defenders, relies primarily on using angles to get to his spots … May need some time to adjust to the speed and athleticism at the next level … Game isn’t very versatile – best suited playing a specific role"

So y'all can bang on as much as you want with your crazy ass homerism (no surprise that one of the worst for it is the same for Alpi, and probably the most insufferable person who knows almost nothing about basketball - AroundThe World) the actual reality is that my opinions are grounded in the player he is, and as the person I really want I've watched a lot of footage at this point. If I can see it, several scouts and draft profiles can see it but y'all can't, maybe it's not me who's deluding themselves.

 

I suppose there is nothing wrong with quick takes. But, there is a world of difference between those and long educated ones. And your right, even those are wrong much of the time.

I try not to make many predictions for the very reasons you state. Jalen is going to be this, Jalen is going to be that. Sorry, but I put little to no stock in those kinds of posts. What I do a lot though is say what I think a player is right now or what he has been in the past. We got data for that at least.

 

So, the posts that are inherently wrong, must be right?

 

I didn't ask that. I asked to compare their passing ability, as I assume you think they're about the same. I understand not wanting Castle for other reasons. I just wanted to see if you and I had similar opinions about what makes a player's passing ability good enough to be a PG, and what exactly goes into those conclusions.

You said Reed made regular passes that any regular player could make, which seemed ridiculous to me, so I threw out the idea of Jabari and Tari (aka "regular players") making similar passes...which you agree is a ridiculous idea, which implies you agree your own statement is ridiculous. Of course you can clarify your original point, which is what I was asking for prior to those exaggerated statements.

Or you can just ignore it altogether and pretend it didn't happen, and we won't get a chance to discuss this in-depth where we might both possibly learn something.

Yeah, if we just want to compare him to Steph or whatever, I don't really disagree with you much. I'm just saying he has really good shooting numbers, arguably the best of any prospect in the last few years.

I do think the usage criticism is fair (though the "bench" thing is dumb), but I think we've seen enough to get a pretty good idea how he'd do, especially if he's not the number 1 option on a team (which is what he'd be here). More usage would be great, but regardless you'll always be projecting some with a one-and-done college player.