(ESPN) Jeremy Woo: Rockets have interest in Sheppard, with both the FO and ownership intrigued

He has a lot of steals, have you ever actually watched his games though? He isn't this elite defender y'all are making him out to be, and most of the games I watched he struggled to stay in front of college players. From what I've seen he gets his steals more by risky jump outs on passing lanes than any incredible man on man defense. Similarly his passes just look like regular passes by any player rather than anything that suggests a starting NBA point guard. I still want Reed, but I think y'all are all going to be incredibly disappointed when he doesn't blow up as some insane player. It's like his shooting, he's only actually shot that well in college, in high school when he was a higher usage player his numbers were a lot more mundane, and nothing like Steph in highschool. I just don't see this transcendent player y'all see, no matter how many of his games I watch.

 

Tbh the only one on that list with high bbiq is fvv

 

That's how I look at it. Also to expound on it there have to be players that are more inclined to be winning players. Him and Jabari feel like winning players to me. Eason as well in a different way. Jalen, Amen, Cam, Sengun are to be determined in my opinion.

 

From Vecenie draft guide:

STRENGTHS: Sheppard is as smart and skilled a player as exists in this draft. He basketball intelligence and processing ability are elite. He seems to see things a full second before they happen on the court. He can play both on and off the ball and his feel translates in both roles. He has remarkable anticipation for the next thing opponents will do on both ends of the court. That results in him impacting the game across the board. He had an incredibly efficient season, posting a silly 69.9 true- shooting percentage, the best mark for any high-major freshman guard since at least 2008, per Bart Torvik. Sheppard also had the best steal rate of any one-and-done guard since at least 2008, and the second-best block rate of any one-and-done guard in that era. Sheppard is a ridiculous athlete. He posted a 42-inch vertical leap at the combine, and that leaping ability shows up on tape with his ability to contest shots at an incredible level for his size. He has much more suddenness than you expect.

Much of Sheppard’s offensive game is predicated upon the threat of his shot. Sheppard is an elite shooting prospect. He made 52.1 percent of his 3-point attempts, the top mark for any one-and-done player to take at least 100 3s in a season since 2008 by an ocean. (The next-best is Duke’s A.J. Griffin at 44.7 percent in the 2021-22 season.) Sheppard will enter the NBA as an elite shooter, which is rare. He has picturesque mechanics that are exactly what one would teach to an aspiring shooter. He is entirely on balance, with perfect energy and weight transfer through the shot. He has a high release point, and his release is quick with a high trajectory. He gets aligned to the rim from any position. He can alter his dip off the catch if necessary to shoot quicker. Sheppard tends to take jumpers more off a one-two, left-right step, but can also take them off the hop or occasionally off a right-left step. His makes are about as pure as you’ll find. There are no mitigating factors that would prevent this skill from translating at an elite level to the NBA. There are few players that make you believe they could, at some point, be the best shooter on Earth. Sheppard has a distance to travel to get there, but that outcome is on the table.

He can also make pull-up shots. There is no mechanical change for Sheppard off the bounce as compared to off the catch. Everything remains pure thanks to his pristine footwork. He took only 37 pull-up 3s at Kentucky but made 51.4 percent of them. He knocks them down in transition while leading the break if nobody gets out on him. He can hit them directly off ball screens if he gets a window. Defenders cannot go under any action on him. If they do, they’re dead. Sheppard also has a chance to be an elite weapon out of dribble-handoffs with a strong screening big. He was a two-level scoring threat this season, lethal from behind the 3-point line and from the midrange as a pull-up weapon. He made 52.8 percent of his pull-up midrange jumpers this year. In total, Sheppard was the best pull-up shooter in high-major college basketball this past season, per Synergy, posting a 65.1 effective field goal percentage.

Sheppard’s passing and playmaking ability are also elite, unsurprising given his feel for the game. He is not all about assists, either. Sheppard makes the right pass consistently to help his team maintain an advantage, whether it results in a direct assist for him or not. That starts in transition when leading the break, where he makes the right read every time and hits passes with pinpoint accuracy. He is one of the best transition table-setters in the class. His eyes go up immediately and he can throw live-dribble hit-ahead passes with either hand. In half-court situations, he showed tremendous vision as the point guard or as more of an off-ball ball-mover next to Rob Dillingham. Off the ball, you’ll see a ton of extra passes and quick reversals. He reads help rotations and defenders coming toward him exceedingly well.

As a creator, his passing in ball screens has been quite strong. His work here is fundamentally sound and timely. He finds pocket passes to his rollers through tight windows. He recognizes the second and third level of the defense well and can hit skip passes or lobs depending on how the defense plays him and his pick-and-roll partner. He finds unique angles and ways to execute these passes. He can throw them with velocity or use a softer touch when necessary. He'll throw odd-angle overhead passes, scoop passes on the baseline and cross-corner kickouts with zip to the lifting wing shooter on the opposite side. His eyes are always up and he maintains his vision at a high level. On top of that, he rarely makes a bad decision and turns it over. Sheppard dished out 4.5 assists per game this year while only playing part-time as a point guard due to the presence of Dillingham and D.J. Wagner.

On defense, Sheppard is a consummate playmaker who is exceptionally disruptive off the ball. While not long, he has incredible hand-eye coordination and makes sudden movements offensive players don’t expect. He seems to visualize what offensive players will do before they even decide to do it. Sheppard will go for strips as players go up to shoot and regularly gets home with a deflection. He has the best timing I’ve ever seen for an undersized guard when contesting and blocking shots and is also on point when digging down. Sheppard averaged 2.5 steals and 0.7 blocks per game and puts himself into good positions to make these active, aggressive plays on the ball.

On the ball, he defends bigger and better than his measurements indicate. He has solid lateral quickness and exhibits excellent defensive fundamentals when sliding his feet. He stays in front of his man and excellent at getting skinny over the top when navigating screens. He doesn’t get bumped off his path as much as you’d expect. For someone who plays such a handsy style, he rarely commits fouls. He has a chance to at least overcome his size as an on-ball defender in screens, especially in a drop coverage scheme.

 

WEAKNESSES: Sheppard is undersized by any measure. At the combine, he measured 6-1 3/4, with a 6-3 1/4 wingspan and an extremely low 7-9 1/2 standing reach. I’m not sure how exactly that standing reach figure was so low, but it is noteworthy, regardless. He will be one of the smaller guards in the NBA next season. On top of that, he’s not overly shifty. He isn’t a below-average athlete, but he doesn’t quite get as much out of his athleticism when he has the ball as he should. His game doesn’t feature any force. He can absorb contact, but rarely initiates it. As he doesn’t have that immense burst, if his momentum gets stopped, it can take him an extra split-second to get it going again.

The most notable place these weaknesses pop up for scouts is when Sheppard is serving as an on-ball creator. Can he consistently separate from his man? More generally, given his size, can he play point guard? I wouldn’t label his handle creative, and as mentioned above, he’s not that shifty with the ball in his hands. He was at his best when he was decisive this year, especially in semi-transition, but he won’t cross defenders up with multiple strung-together moves off the bounce. Opponents must always account for the threat of his shot, but is that enough for him to generate paint touches? He took only one shot per game at the rim in half-court settings, a remarkably low number for a player who will likely end up having to play some point guard.

Sheppard needs a ball screen to get dribble penetration. Once he takes that screen, can he consistently collapse defenders and force help? Can he turn the corner on drop defenders? Will the best on-ball defenders the NBA, who possess elite length and quickness, have much trouble staying in front of him? An honest question at Kentucky, at times, was whether he could beat bigs on switches. If Sheppard can’t consistently get into the paint in the NBA, he may turn into more of an undersized off-guard. He’s such a good shooter and off-ball player that he’ll still be an NBA player if that’s the case, but he would have less upside and wouldn’t return high-lottery value. Ultimately, Sheppard’s handle will be his swing skill. Can he find a way to maximize it and add some creativity or juice? Does the increased space around him on the NBA court allow him wider lanes to get into the paint? If this part of his game hits, he will be a star. If it doesn’t, he'll be more of a role player.

Sheppard’s playmaking on defense is real, but there are some flaws NBA teams will exploit. His lack of strength shows up significantly. While he’s generally able to stay in front of his man, Sheppard does, at times, get moved out of the way too easily. Occasionally, a decisive move will burn him. Those shortcomings make him a less effective on-ball defender, which will only be exacerbated in the NBA. Sheppard will likely be hunted for switches at the next level due to his height. He needs to prove that he can hold up in such scenarios and not let the best players get to their spots easily. The pros who have figured it out at this size on defense — Chris Paul and Fred VanVleet, for instance — have tended to be strong through the lower half of their body. Sheppard has a lot of the savant-like tendencies of those two players and he fights through screens like them, but he currently lacks their lower-body strength.

Additionally, Sheppard’s off-ball defense was inconsistent possession-by-possession. He had a lot of moments when he looked lost in space and was caught ball-watching. He has the instincts and the reactivity to recover, but because of his size, he has a small margin for error. He needs to be locked in all the time on that end of the court.

SUMMARY: By the numbers, Sheppard was one of the most important players in college basketball this season. His individual statistics tell you a lot, but no number that says more than this one: 29.5. Kentucky was that many points per 100 possessions better when Sheppard was on the court versus when he was not. The Wildcats had a 129.9 offensive rating with him on the court versus a 113.6 rating with him off it. They had a 108.5 defensive rating with him on the court versus a 121.7 rating without him. Those numbers were not propped up by overlapping minutes with others: Sheppard’s 29.5 on/off net rating for Kentucky was nearly 20 points better than anyone else on the team. He drove positive, winning play for them. I bet he will in the NBA, too. Players who think the game and shoot like Sheppard have reliably proven to outperform their athletic tools and measurements in the modern NBA. They have too many ways to become good players even if parts of their games don’t translate. Even if Sheppard cannot play point guard full-time, his team could put him next to an elite wing on-ball playmaker and take advantage of the floor-spacing and shooting he’ll provide. Even if Sheppard isn’t always able to collapse defenders, he’ll make early hit-ahead and extra kickout passes to keep defenses in rotation. He’s too far ahead of what his opponent presents him. He shares some similarities to Lonzo Ball coming out of UCLA or Tyrese Haliburton coming out of Iowa State. Ball’s size made him project as a better defender, but his presence on the court, once he figured out how to shoot, was immensely positive. Haliburton has struggled on defense, but his gravity and passing ability allows him to dominate games. It’s difficult for basketball savants who are also elite shooters to fail. Sheppard’s measurements may put that theory to the test, but I’m betting on him being the kind of guy who helps teams win, be it as a star if everything goes right or as a role player if it doesn’t.

 

To be clear, I 100% think his size and his defense are legit concerns. Sam actually described his defense as "complicated" in a recent podcast I think, not necessarily good. I don't think you're seeing things we're not seeing (or vice versa) on that end. The question tends to be can he improve on his technique/strength/etc to make up for some deficiencies, how much of a concern are those things based on his offense and others in the lineup, etc.

Personally I haven't figured out whether I think his defense is just a technique/focus/softness thing, or an actual physical problem (i.e., just not agile enough). I'm skimming over lots of guys via the combine agility numbers, and while Reed is far from the best, he's far from the worst too. I see a lot of good defenders (at a similar size) who have slower times. I'm kinda leaning on it being mostly fixable I think?

Vecenie is definitely higher on Reed that others, but I don't think he's *that* might higher on him. AFAIK most of the big draft people seem to have him top 5 on their big boards, usually in the top tier of the draft. And based on what I recall folks saying, I think the evaluation of Reed is generally about the same. Are there some examples of folks you can share who have significantly different evaluations of Reed relative to Vecenie?

I'll also note that while he's definitely undersized overall, I think he's probably about the average size for the average PG in the NBA (assuming he's listed at 6'3"). Still a problem if he gets switched onto Lebron, Kawhi, Giannis, etc., but that was probably going to be a problem even if he was a couple of inches taller. And in those matchups, I think his weight (and lack of strength) is more of a problem than his raw height per se. I'd definitely like to see that ~180lbs from the combine get closer to 190-200lbs in his prime. I can justify seeing Reed potentially having a FVV impact since he's taller and seemingly more athletic, but FVV is much stronger and bulkier than Reed (hence why he's able to just rip the ball away from guys like Allen, Banchero, etc.). Without that strength, there will be some big problems.

IMO Reed is just on the borderline of being too small/poor POA defender where I think I'd just take my shot on him since his potential on offense is so high. Plus at least with this roster, he wouldn't necessarily have the main POA duties. If the defense was worse (100% unfixable) and/or the offensive potential wasn't so high, I could see this being a bigger problem.

BTW on the Garuba thing, I actually reviewed his draft guide notes, and it actually sounds fairly accurate to what happen. Basically Garuba is good on defense, but has huge limitations on offense (especially shooting). He flat out said that if he can't figure out his offensive game, he'll never see time on the court to flex his defensive ability. And that's basically what happened. FWIW I think his defense actually was pretty good (and his stl/blk/reb rates seem to reflect that?), but yeah sadly he couldn't make it work. Of course Vecenie definitely is wrong on some guys, as everyone makes mistakes here, but I do think he is one of the better draft analysts out there.

Beyond Reed, I definitely see way more than just role players in this draft at the top. Maybe it depends on definition of the word role player. Like...Baylor Scheierman seems like a solid role player. Sarr, Carter, Clingan, Reed, Castle, Risacher, Bub Carrington, etc., seem like potential quality starters with all-star potential. You might be able to throw in a Holland, Buzelis, Salaun, Dillingham, etc. into that group as well. I think if you trade from 3 to 11, you might drastically decrease the odds of finding a player with good upside (especially one with upside that fits your team, which is part of the equation).

For the right role player with the right contract, I might consider your proposal. Caruso in particular just seems like a bad one because of the reasons I mentioned. I get your point, but I might argue that the specific deal that satisfies all these requirements might not be possible. So I'd rather just take Reed (or insert other prospect in that top tier).

Who are some of the guys you trust? I alluded to this earlier, but I basically do the same, and I'm not seeing a huge discrepancy in most of the big picture stuff (certainly some guys like Holland, Buzelis, etc are controversial though). Feel free to correct me where I'm wrong.

You mentioned you could get Donte by giving NYK the pick, so I assumed you were implying that deal could actually be done. What's the point of mentioning it otherwise? Should we also get Jokic with the 3rd pick?

That might seem silly, but I think it helps to think through concrete examples of guys vs just throwing out vague maybes. There are a lot of people who said they'd just want to trade the #3 pick for a win now player, but then once we got proposals for guys like Marcus Smart, suddenly guys didn't seem so eager to part with the pick.

You say there are solid PG starters who can shoot and defend who aren't expensive. Can I see a list? I tried to come up with this one, and it didn't look great to me:
https://stathead.com/tiny/uc4BO
I guess we can quibble about the search parameters and whether certain guys can defend (see people thinking Malik Beasley is a solid defender), but I don't think this list is particularly long. Feel free to throw out some examples though, and I can give some thoughts. If there are some guys that fit that description (and reasonably acquirable), I might be all for it.

And yes, the role players don't have to be on the same timeline as the core, but given that I don't see a ton of minutes available in the rotation next year, it kinda is silly to trade for a player that barely plays and will just age out and/or sign elsewhere when his contract is up. I like Reed, but I don't think he'll get a ton of minutes next year. But his value is he could start to ramp up in a year or two, and also be cost controlled beyond that (including RFA). So by the time FVV is gone, Brooks is gone, etc., now you have a potential starter in his prime.

If you're going to move the #3 pick, I think it should be for a player who will have immediate impact (top 3 player on team), a player on a similar timeline as the core, or....just get more picks. Like I'd rather just get 2-3 extra FRPs (possibly even just 1 if it was good) for the #3 pick than get a role player (7th-9th in rotation) that will only be around for a year or two. You can get those other rotation pieces via the MLE, vet minimum (if vets like you), and/or by trading some of the other fringe rotation pieces (Tate, Jock, etc.).

Yeah, fair enough on your evaluation. That's very much a minority opinion from what I can tell, but obviously if I had the same evaluation, I'd think similarly. Of course in that case, I'd probably just say keep the pick and use it on Castle, Clingan, Risacher, or whoever else in that top tier (vs trading it). Maybe not if you think similarly on all of them, which is even more of a minority opinion, but again, can't really argue with stuff like that.

 

I never said elite passing or that steals matter. Just that he seems to me to be certainly a better passer and defender in his college career than the archetype of Hield/Kennard and he seems to have no ego about working hard and doing what’s best for the team.

I think in 2-3 years he’ll be an NBA PG who can shoot lights out with above average passing and defense. You don’t get that with sharpshooting role players. To me, there is something unique possibly going on here.

Do you believe Sheppard will not develop in the obvious areas under Udoka? I don’t think it’s possible for a hard working young player to be paired with Udoka and for them to not improve. That’s my subjective belief.

 

Still can't believe how Dillingham is being slept on. I'm happy with Shep or Dalton. I just want a PG of the future and someone to help with shooting

 

You may be exactly right. It's hard to explain away why he didn't shoot the three better than he did in high school, and I don't love his defense, but there is enough there for me to be okay with it if they decide to take the risk at 3. He could be a total bust, but I doubt it, and this team needs better shooting. I'm wiling to bet that he's a much better shooter from deep now than he was before if for no other reason than he's stronger and more mature now. But no doubt there's some risk to him.

 

I just think y'all are projecting a ceiling significantly higher than is likely tbh. We're talking about a guy who would not go top 10 in a typical draft, was not a 5 star recruit, did not start on his team, plays the wrong position for his height and doesn't look in any way like any form of star player or even really NBA starter when I watch his college games. I think he'll be a very good player, I just don't think he'll ever be a starting caliber PG in the NBA. I think it's most likely he ends up as a SG/combo off the bench, that's what his archetype fits historically. Although, feel free to show me an example of a 6'3 SG (real 6'3 not Jalen 6'3 where he's 2 inches taller than all the other 6'3 guys - as you'll see if we draft Reed) with no exceptional handling or passing skills who went from a bench spot up shooter to a starting PG on a winning NBA team? I may just not be aware of any.

Edit: I also don't know why we're using Buddy Hield as a comparison? Hield was a significantly higher tier prospect than Sheppard, a 2 time Big 12 player of the year, Wooden, Naismith and Oscar Robinson trophy winner. He's taller, stronger, heavier, much bigger wingspan. They're not even remotely the same kind of player at all, hell, Hield is a SG/SF and you're talking about somebody you're projecting as a PG...

 

Every year I’m amazed how sure everyone is about players they have barely watched. Especially when the people that get paid millions to evaluate and pick these guys are freaking terrible at it. Putting a floor or ceiling on any of them seems stupid to me personally. Sengun, Eason and Cam are all examples that drafting is difficult. Stone’s track record on trades sucks and his drafting has been pretty great so I hope we don’t trade the pick. I love Reed cause shooting, bbiq and I like rooting for guys no one believes in.

 

FVV basically did for the raptors. Lowry was the point and FVV played 30 minutes a game in the finals. And Fred wasn’t drafted cause of measurables.

 

Why are you just making up stuff as if people aren't aware of NBA players? FVV was never a 6'3 SG with no real handles, he was recruited as and played as a PG his high school career. Once again, please feel free to find an example of a 6'3 SHOOTING GUARD who never played the PG position and has limited handles became a starting caliber PG in the NBA.

 

Everything in this post is wrong.

 

The point is the Raptors had a backcourt of 6 foot Lowry and 6 foot FVV and won a championship. You can decide which one is a shooting guard. They both were under estimated for their physical limitations.

 

Sheppard does not have to play PG on offense. Amen will be doing that when FVV is gone. Sheppard will have to guard PG’s. If he can do that, he will be a good fit for us in a couple of years. I’ll be very surprised if anybody the Rockets pick in this draft cracks the rotation before the all-star break and probably not until next year. If Jalen falters they will either find a vet or give Cam his shot.

 

Nah that misses the point entirely. We're discussing "can a massively undersized SG become a starting PG in the NBA" and your response is "they had 2 PG's who always played PG, choose which one you want to be SG." Like seriously, did you ever actually learn to read?

 

Dillingham has an extremely slight frame on top of being short.

It's really hard to envision any scenario where he isn't getting knocked off position on defense very easily. If he isn't an elite offensive producer he will likely struggle to stay a net positive.

 

The real issue is that you keep saying things that are outright false then getting upset that the responses you get ignore your false premise.

 

I think bro you’re maybe confusing me for someone else when you say y’all? I’ve been deemed a Sheppard hater by his fans. I think they are overhyping and you are underhyping.

Regarding Hield, I believe Sheppard will have similar career shooting numbers. That’s my own comp for his shooting only. I don’t agree with most of the other comps I’ve heard. I see him being Hield with better defense and passing. I don’t know anything about Hield’s college career, I’m just comparing based on his NBA career.

Edit: I’m still curious if you think the pairing of an alleged hard worker and Udoka won’t result in any discernible improvement. Don’t you think that would be a bit overly pessimistic? On average players will improve if they’re in viable rotations.