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ESPN: J.A. Adande on LeBron to Rockets

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Simon Honeybone, Dec 20, 2009.

  1. TMac4Life#1

    TMac4Life#1 Member

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    Sometimes I wonder why do you even think about posting with things that you type its just funny.
     
  2. pbthunder

    pbthunder Contributing Member

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    I hadn't really given too much thought to Lebron coming here, but it looks very do-able to me. Without doing some hard research on the numbers, I have a few points to make:

    1) S&T Tracy for Lebron: the extra pieces would be coming this way, because Tracy's contract is much bigger than Lebron's. That's actually a positive for Cleveland, because they could dump some contracts in the deal.

    2) No income tax. Yep, that would be big.

    3) Clearing space: if we renounce everybody, we could sign Lebron to the max, and still have the MLE to sign a PF. The players we would be surrounding Lebron with would be pretty damn significant: Brooks, Yao, Battier, Ariza... Of course, we would want to trade somebody for PF help. So, we don't have to do a S&T for this.

    4) Usually, the current team has a salary advantage over everybody else, but it doesn't seem that way in this case, because Lebron hasn't been around long enough for his salary to become huge. The current team can usually pay him a percentage over what he currently makes, and the other teams can only pay him the maximum salary. In this case, however, those numbers are very close. Supposedly the max next year will be less than this year, though.

    5) Adelman and Morey: extra reasons to believe he'd have good chances at a championship in the next few years.

    6) The marketing possibilities might match New York's, what with the China thing.

    So, between the lack of an income tax, the marketing, and our championship possibilities, Houston is probably the logical choice! Let's print up those jerseys!
     
  3. worzel gummidge

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    Cavs can offer 6th year and 10.5% increases starting from the first year.

    Teams under the cap don't get the MLE. If the Rockets use their cap space they will be limited to signing minimum contracts.

    Cavs can offer 6th year and 10.5% increases starting from the first year.
     
  4. worzel gummidge

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    McGrady contract is $0 next season.
     
  5. OldSchool34

    OldSchool34 Member

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    Realistic Things = Funny to you. Interesting.

    I mean, do you really think Tmac is going to stay here? It's very obvious you are a fan of the Rockets because of him and only him.
     
  6. pippendagimp

    pippendagimp Member

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    screw bronbron, i want joe johnson
     
  7. Dave_78

    Dave_78 Member

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    We don't have any players who would dance with him when the team is beating up on the bottom feeders of the league. Too much class on the Rockets roster for Lebron to fit in :)
     
  8. BimaThug

    BimaThug Resident Capologist
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    ditto what worzel replied to this post.

    The Rockets CANNOT sign-and-trade T-Mac this summer without his consent. He'll be an unrestricted free agent. He's not going to want to sign for whatever Cleveland would want him for (assuming a Lebron-less Cavs team would even want McGrady). Same principle goes for Luis Scola, although he's restricted. Scola would need to WANT to sign with the Cavs, quickly, without testing the market, for a price that Cleveland was good with. Not going to happen.

    As for salary advantage, the Cavs have a HUGE one. As worzel mentioned, they can offer a sixth year and 10.5% annual raises (vs. 8% from other teams). Trust me, that more than makes up for any Ohio state income taxes that Lebron would have to pay. Oh, and Lebron will be up for a very high salary. The reason that he chose not to extend his contract last summer was because the maximum salary for players with 7-9 seasons in the NBA (Lebron will have 7 seasons under his belt by this summer) is substantially higher than those with 5-6 seasons of experience. The only way for him to make a higher salary is to have an opt-out in his next contract when he's got 10 years of experience, at which time he can get the "highest max" salary.

    Again, as worzel mentioned, you don't get cap space AND the MLE. It's one or the other. This is why teams with only $2-3M in cap room will renounce their cap space in favor of the larger MLE.

    Even if you renounce T-Mac, Scola and Lowry, and even if you don't pick up the team option on Chuck Hayes, and even if you waive Joey Dorsey and his (partially/non-) guaranteed contract, the Rockets STILL probably won't have enough cap room to sign Lebron as a free agent. They would likely have to trade Shane this season for an expiring contract of a crap player who will not be re-signed (think a higher-paid version of Brian Cook). That, or wait until the 2010 NBA Draft and desperately try to trade Battier to a team under the cap or with a trade exception.


    Basically, if Lebron James is a Houston Rocket next season, it will be because:

    (A) He signs for less than the max (in the $12-13M per season range);

    (B) He forces Cleveland's hand and is signed and traded to Houston for (at least) Carl Landry and/or Aaron Brooks and some other pieces to make the salaries work;

    (C) Yao opts out of his contract, re-signs at a massive pay cut, the Rockets renounce their rights to T-Mac, Scola and Lowry, and the Rockets BARELY get close enough to the max salary's worth of cap room to sign Lebron.

    Frankly, I just don't see any of those scenarios happening.
     
  9. kmart9419

    kmart9419 Contributing Member

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    James stated goal in life is to become one of the richest man in the world. James sat down with Warren Buffett for advice. He probably learned having a salary alone, regardless of how big it is, will not be able to achieve that goal. Becoming a marketing superstar with the help of Yao, will certainly present James with the opportunity to become the richest man in the world. Jordan and Tiger woods always earned more money through endorsements than salary. Jordan's popularity continues to earn him money through endorsement way pass his playing days and most likely will continue to do so for the rest of his life. If James is smart, he should join Yao so he can get access into a country that will most likely surpass the US economically by the time he retires.
     
  10. pbthunder

    pbthunder Contributing Member

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    OK guys, I made a couple of mistakes, but let me point out yours:

    1) The difference between 10.5% and 8% is 2.5%. OH income tax on Lebron is 6%. I do trust you, but not as much as the Ohio tax tables.

    2) Can't S&T Tracy without his consent? That's almost always the case. Really, I'm more excited about clearing the space and signing him outright, though we'd have more players if we could make an S&T happen.

    3) As for how much we'd have by renouncing everybody, I'm just going by stuff I've read here, including in this thread. Refute those guys. I think we could clear $17 million without much trouble, which is all we or anybody else can offer. This is about what high-tax Clevelend can pay him.

    4) 2009-10 max salary is $16,224,600 or 30% of the cap, right? not "$12-13M per season range." Yeah, I know that the max salary is supposed to go down next year...
     
  11. TheRealist137

    TheRealist137 Member

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    LeBron to Houston would be a dream come true. We'd be a dynasty IMO.
     
  12. BimaThug

    BimaThug Resident Capologist
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    Someone has never heard of compounding.

    5-year deal with 8% raises:
    Year 1: 1.0000x
    Year 2: 1.0800x
    Year 3: 1.1664x
    Year 4: 1.2597x
    Year 5: 1.3605x

    6-year deal with 10.5% raises:
    Year 1: 1.0000x
    Year 2: 1.1050x (2.31% higher than other deal)
    Year 3: 1.2210x (4.68% higher than other deal)
    Year 4: 1.3492x (7.10% higher than other deal)
    Year 5: 1.4909x (9.58% higher than other deal)
    Year 6: 1.6474x (an extra guaranteed year at a ridiculously high salary)

    And sales taxes are lower in Cleveland. But none of the taxes mean anything next to that guaranteed sixth season.

    Good luck with that. It doesn't change the fact that a signed-and-traded Lebron for a signed-and-traded T-Mac is not going to happen.

    I've already refuted "those guys". In fact, the thread others keep linking to is MY freakin' thread! Clearing $17M in CAP ROOM (which is quite different than clearing $17M in SALARY) is no easy task and will require trading Shane and praying that Yao opts out and re-signs at a massive discount.

    I used the $12-13M figure because that's about the most I see the Rockets possibly able to offer under any remotely realistic scenario (in which Shane is dumped and others rights are renounced or team options not picked up).

    Go read my thread (which is actually about the salary cap), instead of getting all of your information from one thread about the pie-in-the-sky idea of getting Lebron, before you start pointing out "my mistakes" about the Rockets' cap situation.
     
  13. s3ts

    s3ts Member

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    Haha, wowww

    Lebron isn't coming to Houston. He's going to stay in Ohio.
     
  14. pbthunder

    pbthunder Contributing Member

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    Dude, you are way too sensitive. You do make mistakes, though pretty much everybody here acknowledges that you're a pretty good capologist.

    1) Compounding? Are you kidding me? Too clever by half. Glad that you're proud of having heard of it. Hey, you STILL didn't factor in the OH income tax. Using your numbers, multiplying the OH numbers by 0.94 (I assume you understand why), we get:

    5-year deal with 8% raises:
    Year 1: 1.0000x
    Year 2: 1.0800x
    Year 3: 1.1664x
    Year 4: 1.2597x
    Year 5: 1.3605x
    TOTAL 5.87

    6-year deal with 10.5% raises:
    Year 1: 1.0000x 0.94 after taxes
    Year 2: 1.1050x 1.04
    Year 3: 1.2210x 1.15
    Year 4: 1.3492x 1.27
    Year 5: 1.4909x 1.40
    TOTAL 5.8

    Year 6: 1.6474x (an extra guaranteed year at a ridiculously high salary)

    I can't find the ridiculously high salary that you're talking about. Your own calculation is just 10.5% higher than year 5, so what's so special about year 6? Are we sure he wouldn't make as least as much if year 6 is year 1 of the next contract?

    2) Larry Coon's #19 says this:
    "A player can receive raises up to 10.5% of the salary in the first season of the contract." To me, that precludes compounding. I'm not going to look it up in that lawyer document that the union posts, but I see no compounding here.

    BTW, the reason I don't make the effort to look everything up is, a year ago, when I started to do that for certain threads, I saw that you were pretty good at this stuff, and I didn't see that it was worth while. But you do make mistakes, like anybody else.
     
  15. meh

    meh Contributing Member

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    Aren't you missing the entire point of this thread?

    On an even playing field, no team can offer as much money as Cleveland. And Lebron would've already re-upped with the Cavs because they can offer him the most money and the most long term security. Case closed.

    But that's not the issue here. Obviously Lebron wants to go to a place where he can maximize his exposure and advertising $$$. Hence making all this whether-we-can-offer-max-or-not debate irrelevant. What's relevant is just how awesome is the Chinese market. I'm leaning towards No on the subject. But I'm really talking with almost no basis. If there are really guaranteed advertising money that connects to signing with the Rockets, the amount almost surely outweighs the measly extra few million bucks Cleveland can offer.

    You keep looking at this whole thing in black and white, when there are so many shades of grays. We're not talking about the difference between MLE and Max. We're not talking about gutting our entire team or keeping the entire team. Compromises can be made and the wealth can be spread, if the China hype isn't all hype and there truly is a lot more wealth found in Houston than in Cleveland or NY.
     
  16. BimaThug

    BimaThug Resident Capologist
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    Sorry if I sounded hyper-sensitive. I just have a problem when some people say that clearing $17M in cap room is easily doable, since it's not.

    Your point regarding the income tax is well-taken. The extra raises don't overtake the income tax difference until Year 4, but that sixth year is a big deal regardless. Lebron could get hit by a bus the day after signing his contract. He (or his family) would be getting a hell of a lot more money with that sixth year.

    First off, I love your paraphrase of my post!

    I didn't mean to "de-rail" the point of the thread. I was simply agreeing with worzel's corrections of pbthunder's earlier post, which talked about how the Rockets clearing enough cap room (or doing a sign-and-trade) for Lebron would be fairly easy.

    Despite the allure of "capturing the Chinese market", Lebron James does not NEED to play alongside Yao Ming in order to do that. He is such a star that all he has to do is take a couple of trips to China, and he'll get all the Chinese endorsements he can shake a stick at. Hell, Kobe Bryant is like a deity in China. Last I checked, he doesn't play for the Rockets.

    Now, if we were to exchange the name "Chris Bosh" for Lebron James, and it was Bosh's desire to be a global superstar, THEN I would give more credence to the whole "Yao effect" thing being a substantial factor in the free agency decision.

    But not for Lebron. Just my opinion.
     
  17. Easy

    Easy Boban Only Fan
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    I don't think LeBron needs Houston or China to make millions of endorsement money. He got endorsement deals BEFORE he had played a single game in the NBA. I just don't see him signing a less than max contract anywhere. Re-signing with Cleveland makes the most sense to him.

    Besides, the China connection only works as long as Yao is playing for Houston. Nobody can guarantee how long Yao's career will be given his injuries.
     
  18. Simon Honeybone

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    FWIW (admittedly not much) income tax is part of your "state tax burden" but you have to look at the whole thing (income, sales, property, etc).

    Ohio is 7th highest at 10.4% and Texas is tied with Louisiana for 42nd at 8.4% but the net gain is only 2%. If tax alone were the driving force he should choose Miami or Orlando since the state tax burden there is 7.4% the lowest of any NBA state
     
  19. CJLarson

    CJLarson Member

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    LeBron coming to Houston would be great for him. Look at our role players. MUCH MUCH better than what LBJ has in Cleveland. Take LeBron away from Cleveland and you have a team with a top 10 draft pick no doubt. With all our role players, plus Yao coming back, Houston has got to be a top destination choice for LBJ in terms of winning. But we know these free agents aren't always about winning unfortunately.
     
  20. pbthunder

    pbthunder Contributing Member

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    You tha man! It's all good. I'll pay more attention as to how much we can clear next time.

    Hit by a bus? I bet Tiger Woods wishes he had only been hit by a bus!
     

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