I find it incredibly INCREDIBLY unlikely we get both Howard & CP3. We're more likely to get just Howard. Josh Smith doesn't have to be the man; he just has to be a defender and third option. Like Bosh.
I think Houston will probably upgrade the 4-spot on a team-friendly deal. I just don't see the two max free agents leaving the money and the glitz on the table to come to Houston. So from a realistic stand point, i think you look at guys like Milsap, Al Jeff, and Josh Smith. None of them are anywhere near the caliber of the max players, but any of those 3 would represent a huge upgrade on what we have already. None are worth over-paying for though. If we can get one of them on a value contract, i think it makes sense. If not, stand pat and develop our young bigs. TJones and DMo both figure to be much better next year.
In regards to the Josh Smith subject.... Once upon a time not too long ago there was this super talented yet bone-headed Power Forward that nobody wanted. This guy played on 4 different teams in 3 years before finally finding his home. He always put up big numbers wherever he went but people questioned his character, some considered him a locker room cancer, coaches said he didn't listen, he took ill-advised 3's, he looked like a guy that only cared about padding his stats and didn't care about winning, heck this guy was even suspended for punching another player. Around age 28 he was traded to a transitional up and coming team that had a lot of young talent. When he was traded here he finally found his home and it showed. The numbers were still there and the fans embraced him, the coach trusted him, the younger players looked at him as a leader, his shot selction looked better all of a sudden and all he cared about was playing good ball and winning. That year his team missed the playoffs but he pretty much turned that franchise around from bottom dwellers to a near .500 record which was huge for them at the time. For his efforts he was finally selected to his FIRST EVER All Star game. The next season he would lead his team to the franchise's first ever playoff series win by shocking the #1 seeded team. Today he's 31 and still plugging away and his team is currently in the Western conf semi's with a good chance of advancing to the West Finals and perhaps even the NBA Finals. In case you haven't noticed I'm talking about Zach Randolph. The guy you almost couldn't give aways at one point. Now I'm not implying Josh Smith is as good as Zach Randolph but he (Smith) does bring a rare skill-set that can definitely be used on this team and he would be a major upgrade over anybody else we trot out at the 4 spot. Furthermore, Smith was never on the same scale as Randolph when it came to being a malcontent. With Smith you have a player that's 28 as well like Randolph at the time and Smith has tasted some playoff success in ATL but I think he's been ready for a change of scenery for the last couple of seasons. I'm not saying Smith will completely change if he were to come to Houston but I personally think he's definitely a risk worth taking on if the price was right and I know he would improve this team and fill many of the voids we have. I'm in agreement we should aim for the superstars (Cp3, Dwight) etc but the chances of those happening are pretty slim. Besides, the position in need of the most upgrading is the 4 spot, then PG, then C. I personally think a Parsons/J-Smoove/Asik front court could mesh well and it gives us a lot of flexibility and Smith would help out Asik tremendously not just on the boards but on weakside help defense and protecting the rim. If we can add Josh Smith and a lockdown defending/scorer at the guard spot and perhaps another big man for cheap I think we are contenders. We are closer than we think. I think there's many ways to be successful in this league and contrary to popular belief I don't think you need 2 Superstars in order to go far if you have a well balanced/talented team with Depth.
This offseason can only be about getting that second star. We should do nothing else until we do. If CP3 or Dwight aren't coming, there is no point to signing an upgrade like Josh Smith or Paul Millsap. Their big contracts will help our win total, but hurt our flexibility. If we do strike out in free agency, Pau Gasol should be the trade target again. It's not about the talent, it's about his expiring contract. He can still help us short-term, but won't affect us long-term. Can't find a better Plan B than that.
yah dunno why some idiots are bashing and against going after josh smith. As many weaknesses some of you pointed out, he's still way better than any of our 1/2 dozen big men.
i think the hardest part is to get the first star, selling cp3 on a dwight/harden/parsons team is easier. then again cp3 was already telling barnes to stay in LAC..so that maybe tough
That is a good story and I like your last two paragraphs, but Randolph's game isn't based almost purely on athleticism like Smith's. Smith's athleticism can only decline, but I'd still love to have him. He is better than the hot garbage we have now - and he can defend like a mother. Let's win now baby!
Just wanted to comment on this: I actually think the chances of us getting CP3 AND Dwight Howard is much greater (not saying it itself is very high though) than signing either one by himself. They are much more likely to leave their respective teams and the $$ if they know they're coming to a team with another star (besides Harden). It is the Heat-effect. Instant contention. Easier for fans to swallow, and easier for the media to play off as well, which they might care about.
I would never hinge a off season plan on player taking less money than they could, which is why I would assume it would already take some serious luck to get even one of Howard or Paul. getting both, would require the stars to align. As for Josh Smith, the real question is at what price? as a max contract guy no way in hell, as a small contract guy, assuming we couldn't land the 2 big marquee guys, is at least intriguing to say the least. Because most NBA player have a value on them, if their value is greater than their contract, it makes them very useful trade pieces. However, I like Paul Milsap better. FWIW. though I'm assuming that most GM aren't idiots and probably also realize that. If I understand the new CBA correctly, we can't even attempt a sign and trade for Howard, or rather, the Lakers can't. because there's a provision in there that prevents team over the hard cap (aka the 70m lux tax threshold) to do it. as in, they can't receive players back, but still need to match salaries , which is obviously impossible. Given the Laker's situation, if it's based on basketball rationality, there is no way in hell they wouldn't offer Howard the super max, because you know what, if they can't resign him, they can't use that money to sign anyone either, not even a mid level exception player, that's how bad of a position they're in cap wise, if they let Howard go, they have 79M committed to 8 players, one of whom is terribly injured, for next season, and has nothing, absolute no other option of acquiring even fillers for their bench except with league minimum contracts. As for Paul, I think the odds are also against us in most likihood, from interviews it is highly suggested that Chris Paul is essentially the underground GM of the Clippers, why should he give that up ? if he can pick his own coach and teammates? (and really, I am slightly worried about a star who figure picking Grant Hill as a teammate was a good idea.)
