[ESPN Insider] Houston Rockets: 2013-14 Forecast

Broford · Oct 10, 2013

By Bradford Doolittle | ESPN Insider

Overview
The Rockets were one of the NBA's most watchable teams in 2012-13, but their story is embedded in the dizzying list of moves that have re-made the franchise since the 2011 lockout ended.

When Daryl Morey ascended to the head of basketball operations in Houston on May 6, 2007, he inherited a championship contender. He'd been around for a year working under former general manager Carroll Dawson, and watched firsthand as the Rockets won 52 games under Jeff Van Gundy. The team's stars, Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady, were firmly in the prime of their careers and both ranked in the league's top 40 in WARP. Yao would have joined McGrady in the top 15 had he not missed 34 games in what turned out to be a sign of things to come.

Yao and McGrady were in and out of the lineup the next couple of years, and the Rockets won 55 and 53 games, respectively. There was one playoff series victory in which McGrady didn't play, and that was the high point. Ravaged by injuries, the ability of both stars declined. Morey's team had been built around that star duo, both on the court and under the salary cap. The Rockets put up three straight seasons over .500, but missed the playoffs each time. Morey admirably refused to do a complete teardown ("tanking," per the current vernacular), but it was apparent that drastic steps would have be taken to get Houston out of the middle class.

Entering last season, Houston's roster was a mix of solid players, all of whom were more or less appropriately compensated. With no franchise player in place, and the team facing an uninspiring near term of chasing low-level playoff seeds, Morey boldly set out to knock the Rockets off the treadmill of mediocrity. After the 2011 lockout Morey acquired the first piece in center Pau Gasol, however, the NBA ultimately voided the three-team trade that would have also sent Chris Paul to the Lakers.

Morey and the Rockets not only recovered from that disappointment, but also ended up in a much better place. Cue the Dwight Howard era in Houston.

2012-13 RECAP

Morey's strategy was to acquire as many fungible assets as possible, upgrading them along the way whenever possible. While most teams grasp the concept of clearing cap space to make room for All-Star-level free agents, Morey recognized that trading for them works just as well. To make such a trade, you have to have financial flexibility to absorb larger contracts, as well as the draft picks, cost-controlled talent and short-term contracts that stand out in the trade market.

Because of Morey's rapid rebuild, the Rockets' 2012-13 season began to take shape immediately upon the end of the previous campaign. Samuel Dalembert, Chase Budinger, Kyle Lowry and Marcus Camby were all dealt for what can best be described as packages of assets. Luis Scola was waived via the amnesty clause. The Rockets ended up with three first-round picks in the 2012 draft, giving Morey additional bargaining chips. At times, it was hard to figure out exactly who was on the Houston roster on any given day.

PELTON'S 2012-13 STATS
W-L: 45-37 (Pythagorean W-L: 52-30)
Offensive Efficiency: 111.2 (6th)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.8 (16th)
Pace Factor: 94.7 (1st)
Highest WARP: James Harden (15.1)

Morey exploited the seldom-used "poison pill" clause in the collective bargaining agreement to lay the foundation for his 2012-13 squad, signing restricted free agents Jeremy Lin and Omer Asik to backloaded deals their previous teams could not match. With that pair and a long list of inexperienced first-rounders on the roster, the Rockets appeared to have a young group to develop while waiting for the splashy trade candidate to surface. When this theoretical player surfaced, Houston would have trade fodder and financial flexibility to count.

That player surfaced before the season began, when Thunder general manager Sam Presti realized that star sixth man James Harden, eligible for an extension to his rookie contract, was not going to fit into Oklahoma City's long-term financial prospectus. Rather than wait to move Harden after the season, Presti began shopping him during the fall, and on Oct. 27, 2012, Morey's long search for a star to follow in the injury-vacated footsteps of McGrady and Yao finally ended. The expiring contract of Kevin Martin, three draft picks and fresh lottery selection Jeremy Lamb brought Harden to Houston.

The moves that eventually positioned the Rockets to sign Dwight Howard continued during the season, as did the low-risk, high-reward acquisitions. Scorer James Anderson was signed early in January. Patrick Beverley, who had been on the cusp of making a place for himself in the NBA for years, was brought over from Russia and was a key rotation player during the postseason.

Despite the ongoing flux and inexperience of the roster, the Rockets emerged as one of the league's most exciting teams under Kevin McHale. Houston played faster than any team in the league, and though the depth chart was shallow, the Harden-led offense was sixth in efficiency. Houston wasn't terrible on defense, except when Asik left the floor, but the league's second-best defensive rebound rate at least limited opponent's second chances and fueled the Rockets' running game.

Houston eked into the postseason with 45 wins, but fashioned a point differential of a 52-win team, giving the youthful Rockets a promising baseline no matter what moves were made over the summer.

OFFSEASON MOVES

It was a quiet offseason for the Rockets, who made a few subtle tweaks of the roster here and there. The big move was the decision to waive center Tim Ohlbrecht in July, a deft bit of ... okay, we'll stop this nonsense. Just as no team was more active than Houston during the summer of 2012 and through the last season, there were a lot of moving parts early in the summer that led up to the Howard signing. There were also plenty of ripples from the Howard transaction, with Houston suddenly becoming a destination locale on the veteran's minimum circuit.

Some of Morey's moves were big, others small, but the payoff -- Howard -- was huge. The Rockets might not be the most improved team in the league in terms of additional wins or scoring margin. If healthy, Houston will almost certainly win more games, but there will be one or two lottery teams that have more of an uptick. However, the Rockets should have the most significant improvement by moving from the middle tier into the contending class.

The summer began for Houston while it was still spring. After the Rockets were eliminated by Oklahoma City, Morey declined 2013-14 team options on Aaron Brooks, Carlos Delfino and Francisco Garcia to open up about $9.9 million of additional cap space. Then on draft night, the Rockets sat out the first round and avoided the cap hold that goes with a first-rounder. Despite missing the first round, Houston will likely still have a pair of rookies in this year's mix.

That's because in the second round, Houston picked up Isaiah Canaan from Murray State. Canaan is a tough, good-shooting point guard who could just as easily have gone in the first round. The Rockets also invited undrafted rookies like Robert Covington, B.J. Young, Casper Ware and Vander Blue to play for their entrant in the Orlando Summer League. Covington impressed and was eventually signed to a three-year contract. According to NBA contract guru Mark Deeks of ShamSports.com, the first year of Covington's deal is fully guaranteed, which makes him a good bet to stick with the Rockets.

The last bit of cap-clearing maneuvering was the most painful: Morey sent Thomas Robinson to the Trail Blazers for two future second-rounders and the draft rights to overseas stash players Kostas Papanikolau and Marko Todorovic. Robinson was a top-five pick just over a year ago, and while he didn't make a huge splash as a rookie, he still looks like a potential starting-caliber power forward. However, he's not Howard, and by sending Robinson away, Morey gave himself the ability to remove any possible financial hurdle from his pitch to Howard.

The Howard news dropped on July 5, and with it the balance of power in the NBA shifted to the south. Howard received a max deal for four years, $88 million. He also reportedly landed a couple of other sweeteners, including an early termination option that can be exercised after the 2015-16 season and a 15-percent trade kicker. Howard becomes the latest member of the elite lineage of Rocket big men, joining Elvin Hayes, Moses Malone, Ralph Sampson, Hakeem Olajuwon and Yao.

With Harden on board as the Rockets' best perimeter player since McGrady, and Howard filling the void created by Yao's early retirement, Morey has recreated the championship-level foundation he thought he inherited when he took over the Rockets. Injuries robbed Houston fans of possible title runs led by McGrady and Yao, but now the Rockets are set to be firmly in the title conversation for at least the next four years.

Morey subsequently shed three more members of last year's Houston roster by trading Royce White and waiving Ohlbrecht and James Anderson. All three ended up joining the 76ers, who are now being run by former Morey underling Sam Hinkie. Meanwhile, the Rockets set about filling out their roster with low-cost free-agent shooters and defenders. It was an impressive haul. Garcia and Brooks re-upped with the Rockets, while Omri Casspi, Reggie Williams, Marcus Camby and Ronnie Brewer joined the club from outside the organization.

As camps opened, there was of course a lot of curiosity about how all this was going to fit together. However, while Morey and McHale are working that out, they first have to decide on who gets to stay. At a glance, it certainly seems like the Rockets have 17 roster-able players in camp, so someone is going to have to go.

2013-24 OUTLOOK

On paper, the Rockets look like title contenders beginning this season, with a forecasted win range somewhere in the low- to mid-50s. Most of the improvement will come on the defensive end, where the Rockets ranked in the middle of the pack a season ago. Much of that is due to the addition of Howard of course, but don't underestimate the effect of having Asik around to anchor the second unit. The perimeter defense will be reliant upon Chandler Parsons developing on that end and perhaps on Beverley stealing some minutes from Lin. Whoever emerges on the perimeter, they now know the basket will be protected behind them at all times.

The offense should again easily rank in the league's top 10. The Rockets already did a great job of spacing the floor and getting high-efficiency shots. In Howard, they now have someone who can compress the defense from the post in the same way Harden does off penetration. While Harden is effective kicking the ball out while driving, Howard is adept at finding cutters when double-teamed. An already outstanding offense just got more versatile.

PELTON'S 2013-14 PROJECTIONS
Projected Offensive Rating: 112.4 (2nd)
Projected Defensive Rating: 107.5 (13th)
Effective (weighted) age: 26.6 (18th)

There are questions:

• How will the minutes be divvied up at the 4? Donatas Motiejunas looks like the probable starter, but Casspi can shoot and rebound, and second-year forward Terrence Jones has all sorts of ability.

• Can Lin adapt his game and keep his starting spot? Word is his jump shot is more consistent, which is going to help. Upping the ante on defense would help even more.

• Will Asik accept what amounts to a demotion? The Rockets certainly value Asik, but the quantity of minutes he played last season isn't going to be available. Like the denizen of Plato's cave, Asik has seen the light, and it won't be easy starting games in warmups once again.

None of these questions are unanswerable, and they are the kind every coach deals with. The Rockets have to love these little puzzles, because the big one has been completed. With a high-powered top of the roster full of players entering or in the prime of their careers, the next few years are going to be memorable in Houston.

SCHOENE Projection: 54-28, 2nd in Southwest Div., 3rd in Western Conf.
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