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ESPN Insider: Chandler ranked 9th among SFs

Discussion in 'NBA Dish' started by awc713, Aug 25, 2014.

  1. awc713

    awc713 Member

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    Think he feels disrespected? Ariza was listed under honorable mention

    Sidenote...surprised Hayward is ranked so highly

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    When it comes to classifying players by position, the guys who present the most trouble are the elite players such as Kevin Durant, LeBron James and Carmelo Anthony.

    What position does James play anyway? The past two seasons, he has spent the bulk of his time playing power forward in Miami, just as Carmelo has done in New York. Now, James and Anthony have slimmed down considerably to gear up for their respective new environments. James is headed back to Cleveland, where he joins a roster with plenty of traditional big men, while Anthony is prepping for his role in New York's new triangle offense. The guys you're used to defining as small forwards are indeed classified as small forwards, while we await the next evolutionary turn in NBA lineup usage.

    Below we continue our NBA positional ranking according to forecast WARP, with the projected top 10 small forwards for the 2014-15 NBA season. (An explanation of the statistic can be found at the bottom of the page.)

    PG | SG | SF | PF | C

    James
    1. LeBron James, Cleveland Cavaliers
    Projected 2014-15 WARP: 20.0 | Win%: 75 percent

    It takes more than one season to usurp the King. Last season, Durant led the NBA in WARP ahead of -- gasp -- James, who had finished first in each of the five previous seasons. James might have finished in the No. 2 slot, but it was the 10th straight season he has finished first or second. That, simply put, is amazing. His scoring efficiency and volume were right on target, but his rebounding, steals and blocks were all down. This shift was reflected in RPM, where he was as lofty as ever on offense (plus-8.7, his highest with the Heat), but dipped below average on defense (minus-0.8). It's the type of "off season" almost any player in history would kill to have.



    Durant
    2. Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City Thunder
    Projected 2014-15 WARP: 17.1 | Win%: 69 percent

    After leading the league in WARP for the first time and ending James' reign as league MVP, there is but one box left unchecked on Durant's résumé: an NBA title. During the regular season, Durant was as good as ever, posting the best winning percentage and WARP of his career on the strength of ever-sharpening passing skills. Consider this: Durant's assist rate was exactly the same in each of his first three seasons, at 3.2 percent. It has been on the climb since, and last season was double his 2012-13 rate (6.4 percent). He did this while cutting his turnover rate from the previous two seasons. Durant is one of the most valuable players in the game, and he's just entering his prime.


    Anthony
    3. Carmelo Anthony, New York Knicks
    Projected 2014-15 WARP: 10.4 | Win%: 59 percent

    It can't be written often enough that Anthony has gotten a whole lot better as a Knick. Indeed, he's never been better, and is now a top-10 player by the numbers, not just reputation. Last season's 14.2 WARP was 3.2 more than he's had in any of his 10 other NBA seasons, and ninth in the league. His RPM (plus-3.8) was also a career best, so his impact shined through to the team level. Now, at the age of 30, Anthony will be playing in a system that might enhance his efficiency even more, and could heighten his profile as a passer as well.


    Hayward
    4. Gordon Hayward, Utah Jazz
    Projected 2014-15 WARP: 10.3 | Win%: 59 percent

    Not every young player gets a chance to see what it's like to become the focus of his team's offense, but that's what happened for Hayward last season. His career-best WARP was based more on volume than efficiency. As the Jazz improve, you'd expect Hayward's usage rate to ebb a little, but even if it doesn't, his 3-point percentage should be better than last season's 30.4 mark, and that in itself will boost his profile. His abilities were recognized by a restricted free agent market that paid him well over the summer.


    Batum
    5. Nicolas Batum, Portland Trail Blazers
    Projected 2014-15 WARP: 9.6 | Win%: 57 percent

    Maybe it has something to do with being French, but consider Batum, Joakim Noah and Boris Diaw. All three provide immense value to their respective teams, and all three do it with a full-fledged skill set that does not feature a prolific scoring arsenal. Batum had an 8.7 WARP (29th in the league), even though his usage rate (16.5 percent) fell to its lowest level since his rookie season. His true shooting percentage ballooned thanks to the increased selectivity, and he was never better as a passer or rebounder. He's just entering his prime, and there is time to work out the rough edges.


    Antetokounmpo
    6. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks
    Projected 2014-15 WARP: 8.8 | Win%: 58 percent

    The system sees Antetokounmpo as a likely contender for the league's most improved player, a statistical observation that one could also have made by watching how his game blossomed over the summer. The chief aspect of his profile that stands out is his positive offensive RPM, which combined with his 3-point shooting, burgeoning floor game, size and tender age mark him as a standout prospect. Can he really go from replacement level to 8.8 WARP? The best players make the leap at a young age. This could be the time for Antetokounmpo.


    Iguodala
    7. Andre Iguodala, Golden State Warriors
    Projected 2014-15 WARP: 8.62 | Win%: 58 percent

    Iguodala actually had the worst season of his career in his first one with the Warriors, though that might have been by design. Iguodala's projection in this methodology (8.6 WARP) is much rosier than he looks by our usual WARP formula (3.5). Iguodala's offensive role shrunk considerably in Golden State, but it was all in service of winning. His plus-6.7 RPM was one of the league's best, and his defensive RPM of plus-4.6 marked him as a true superstar on that end. RPM was made to recognize the talents of players like Iguodala.


    Leonard
    8. Kawhi Leonard, San Antonio Spurs
    Projected 2014-15 WARP: 8.59 | Win%: 59 percent

    Leonard continued to grow across the board last season by hitting new highs in volume and efficiency, while providing an elite-level contribution at the defensive end. His WARP (8.4) put him in the 93rd percentile, and you still get the feeling he's capable of so much more. Gregg Popovich has said Leonard will be the new face of the Spurs, and who can doubt him? Leonard was a standout performer in the regular season, raised his game during the playoffs and was a big reason San Antonio won another championship. And when the regular season ended, he was still not yet 23. Wow.


    Parsons
    9. Chandler Parsons, Dallas Mavericks
    Projected 2014-15 WARP: 6.9 | Win%: 53 percent

    Parsons has been a very good player during the first three seasons of his professional career, but his WARP over that period slots him in the 83rd percentile of all players. No shame in that, but it's not at the level to justify the dollars he got on the restricted market this summer from Dallas. He seems like an ideal role player, but he's now getting paid to be more than that. However, if Parsons can be deployed in a way to provide All-Star production, Rick Carlisle will figure it out.



    Gay
    10. Rudy Gay, Sacramento Kings
    Projected 2014-15 WARP: 6.7 | Win%: 53 percent

    There was a stark difference between Gay as a Grizzly (good), and Gay as a Raptor (bad). As a King, Gay settled into more of a middle ground, and he was an effective player on both ends of the court for Sacramento. On a high-functioning team, Gay probably wouldn't have a usage rate over 27 percent, but if he continues to attack the basket like he did last year, he'll be a talent the Kings can work with.

    Next five: Trevor Ariza, DeMarre Carroll, Draymond Green, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Danilo Gallinari

    Carroll was quietly one of the league's most improved players. Kidd-Gilchrist is still young, raw and far short of his ceiling, but he's already providing positive value on the defensive end.

    Also notable: Luol Deng, Kyle Korver, Paul Pierce, Paul George

    George's injury takes him out of the rankings, but his projected winning percentage (.605) would slot him third, behind Durant and in front of Anthony.
     
  2. steddinotayto

    steddinotayto Contributing Member

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    His 3 pt FG% SHOULD be better but what about his FG%? It's been on a decline since his rookie year, as well as his TS%. Meanwhile, his TOs per game went up last year as he took over as the team's primary player.

    He'll be lucky to end up as a poor man's Detlef Schrempf
     
  3. jank1434

    jank1434 Contributing Member

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    "Ideal role player"? That's offensive.
     
  4. juicystream

    juicystream Contributing Member

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    Seems about right to me.
     
  5. rockbox

    rockbox Around before clutchcity.com

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    Gordon hayward at 4? Ha ha
     
  6. Mr. Clutch

    Mr. Clutch Contributing Member

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    Kawhi is easily 3rd.

    This list is a joke.
     
  7. mfastx

    mfastx Member
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    My List would be:

    James
    Durant
    Anthony
    Leonard
    Iggy
    Batum
    Parsons
    Hayward
     
  8. CertifiedTroll

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    I dont get the praise that Hayword gets. He sucked every time I watched him play. He couldn't create his own shot even though he was the teams whole offense.
     
  9. awc713

    awc713 Member

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    I agree. But maybe the reason he couldnt create his own shot was because he was the Jazz's entire offense. He's not equipped to be the best player on a team. He could thrive as a 3rd option, possibly a 2nd option.

    I hate the Jazz, but theyre constructing a solid roster. Burke + Exum + Hayward + their bigs should yield some wins in a couple years, with some experience.
     
  10. The_Yoyo

    The_Yoyo Contributing Member

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    I am a huge Giannis fan but to have Kawhi listed below him, Batum, Iggy, and Hayward is a complete joke.

    My order:

    1. Lebron
    2. Durant
    3. Melo
    4. Kawhi
    5. Giannis
    6. Batum
    7. Iggy
    8. Gay
    9. Hayward
    10. Ariza/Parsons

    Based on their criteria of leaving out PG because of his injury. I would probably rank Parsons ahead of Ariza because of age if I had to choose one person for that 10th slot.
     
  11. TheRealist137

    TheRealist137 Member

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    someone needs to send this link to one of Parsons' dbag brothers LOL
     
  12. rocketsfeeva

    rocketsfeeva Member

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    Giannis at 6 based purely on potential to breakout this season? Uhhhhhh....... lol
     
  13. gwatson86

    gwatson86 Contributing Member

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    How is Antetokounmpo on anyone's top 10? Dude hasn't shown nearly enough for that. Until his talent equals his potential, he's not a top anything. Also, how has everyone already forgotten that Luol Deng exists?
     
  14. mtbrays

    mtbrays Contributing Member
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    Troll list, bro. How can the Finals MVP be listed under Giannis?
     
  15. Fyreball

    Fyreball Contributing Member

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    Looks like somebody watched the Greek Freak's YouTube highlight video, and bought into the hype. Nothing about his play last year suggests he's ready to crack the top 10 just yet. And putting Hayward ahead of Kawhi and Iggy is a joke.
     
  16. J Sizzle

    J Sizzle Member

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    People are still paying attention to these dumb ESPN WARP lists?
     
  17. Bandwagoner

    Bandwagoner Contributing Member

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    [​IMG]
     
  18. mollamar

    mollamar Contributing Member

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    If I'm Paul Pierce I feel disrespected to be behind Chandler Parsons and Ariza for sure.
     
  19. DrNuegebauer

    DrNuegebauer Member

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    I know Paul George is injured, but not top 10?? Is it because he won't play this year, or are they saying he is done now?
     
  20. wreck

    wreck Contributing Member

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    Probably referring to this year only. Dude is 24, he should be able to make a full recovery. As I fan, I hope he makes a full recovery. I hate seeing injuries. I always want to see the best athletes playing.
     

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