[ESPN Insider 3-7] Redd and Allen head a deep free-agent class

I would love SAR but lets be realistic, he is not coming for the MLE and wouldn't trading Juwan be a prereq to clearing cap space to be able to sign SAR. I am much more intrigued with the possibility of the getting Kwame to to be a combo C/PF and using the MLE and dropping Deke. I love Deke but it is a business.

 

Troy Murphy's contract is not that bad. 10 mil a year for a 24 year old that is a proven 16/11 player and is likely to get better. I'd take that over 8-10 mil for Swift/Chandler/Kwame, who are still very unproven. Don't want to end up with another Cato/Taylor type of deal where we overpay on potential. Kurt Thomas' contract is pretty crappy as well. 7.5 million per season for the next 4 years for a 32 year old player.

Anyway, out of the free agent list, the guy that intrigues me the most is Dan Gadzuric. The Rockets have found some diamonds in the rough lately. Last year with the JJ signing. This year with the signing of Sura and the trade for James. I think all of these big name free agents are going to price themselves out of the Rockets reach and they're going to sign another low profile free agent that turns out to be a gem. Gadzuric could be that guy. He averages nearly 8 rebounds in only 21 minutes a game. If the Rockets could sign him cheap, plus possibly make a deal for Murphy, our rebounding problems would be solved.

 

The problem with Murphy is he is a "poison pill" contract then BYC. Though, it's worth noting the Warriors did acquire a 5+ mill exception for Robinson, making things possible, but not probable. I wholeheartedly agree Murphy is a tremendous fit on this team. Hypothetically, you could make a deal of Wesley+Howard+Baker for Murphy+Fisher+exception (absorbing Wesley), which would be adding a lot of money in long term commitments. It doesn't really make much sense for Golden State anyhow, unless they need to make a move to relieve cap pressure (in which case, why move for Baron?). Murphy's contract is pretty bad for a guy with some injury concerns. I don't see them moving Murphy for what we have to offer.

tiger- What teams out there will offer Shareef more than the MLE? He's already made a max contract, and the Rockets can offer him a starting job on a contender (knock on wood).

Gadzuric is highly unlikely. First, he's restricted. Second, he's a fairly legit center- his value to us as a 4 is much less than his value to other teams as a 5. I'd also be wary as he had serious injury concerns coming out of college. I'm surprised to see his blocks at about 1.5 per game- iirc, he got less than 1 per game in college, and wasn't a particularly good collegiate rebounder (neither was Boozer).

 

Completely agree. All we can offer is a max MLE. That will not get us in the range of a younger prospect with some skill like Swift or Kwame or Vlad Rad (or probably Haslem too). Swift can get a lot more in the open market and Washington or Seattle would love to match an MLE for the others. Seattle or Memphis are certainly not going to do us favors with a S&T for one of their young 4s at a reasonable contract.

So that leaves us with three more plausible options.

1) an older guy might be landable with the MLE. Donyell Marshall is one lots of teams are going to bid for with the MLE, we should be one of those teams but the comp will be tough. Walker is another, but his game, though underrated in some respects, is really not suited for what we need.

2) a guy on the trade block with willing partners. Chandler and SAR seem like possibilities. Expiring contracts and two #1s might get it done for Chandler if the Bulls think they are at risk for him signing elsewhere and don't want to match that contract (say around 8-9 mil year). For SAR, the most I would offer to Portland is expiring contracts plus a #1 and the NY#2. Either of these options seems worth exploring.

3) considering outbidding on more shaky prospects to at least back-up JH. Songala, Evans, Walton (yes I know more of a 3 but probably can handle 4s better than Padget). You could try a 3 or 4 year MLEs on one of these guys (wait on possible match for Evans and Walton), but this is my least preferred strategy.

Not a fan of Jacobsen but I agree with your reasoning.

Though with James I have less of an interest in Stoud or NVE or Watson than before the trade dealine, swingmen or even combo 1/2 guards would still be valuable. AD, McInnis, Raja, Kittles, Mobley, Spree, Korver or Damon Jones would be worth exploring at the right value. While Barry has been very valueable this year, the guy is very old. If he wants a poor value contract in terms of money or years, I am sorry we should look for a younger replacement.

Of course this to me is secondary. Until we have settled what is happening at the 4 spot, I don't want us to tie up our MLE for one of these guys. Even if Barry leaves early in the offseason, don't be hastly and wait for value in the combo guards and swingmen.

 

I just don't see this as plausible. Lots of teams, not just us, would love to have SAR starting at over the MLE (say starting at 6-7 mil), it is just they can not make it happen on their own. It is thus to SAR and Portland's advantage to do a S&T. So yeah, 1st day of the offseason we can let it be known we are going to offer SAR a max MLE (like 6/40 right) to put the heat on, but in reality Portland would step in with their Bird Rights to facillitate a higher contract for SAR and get some expiring contracts + picks at a minimum. That is why I said S&T for SAR as an option with like a 1st and the NY 2nd as the compensation (with expiring contracts), if SAR/his agent convince Portland it is this or nothing, makes sense to get it done. It is a lot more likely than SAR settling for an MLE contract from anyone.

 

Is the FA market going to be so much different than the FA market of last year, I know there is a lot of talk that the CBA will hold down contract values but remember last years off season, there were some big contracts signed by guys that can't shine SARs shoes. SAR and his agent are probably expecting a lot more than the MLE and he will probably get it.

 

It's all in the new CBA. If the article posted in the Dishabout a month ago is even close to accurate, then, YES, contracts will be fairly significantly different. Lower values, and, more importantly fewer maximum year.

As for the SAR / Evans argument, I don't see how either help us. Yes, SAR is an improvement over Juwan, but his deficiencies are the same as Howards, mainly that his inferior defensive presence would continue to leave Yao prone to foul trouble, which means less Yao. Evans is a tough nosed defender and rebounder, but is so weak offensively you can't keep him out on the floor that long, AND would cost way too much.

There can't possibly be a better fit than Stromile Swift. He will almost assuredly get higher offers, but nonetheless on day 1 of free agency the Rockets need to offer him the most they can, and see what happens. Theoretically, he should sign somewhere pretty quickly, so if it is somewhere else, you move on.

A Swift signing aside, it is more likely we see tinkering instead of marquee addition. Maybe someone along the lines of a Darius Songalia, Cliff Robinson type.

 

I would go after Radmonovic or Simmons and move T-Mac back to SG.

PG: MJ/Sura
SG: T-Mac/Wesley
SF: Rad/Barry
PF: JH
C: Yao/Deke.

 

JayZ, I pretty much agree with you with minor exceptions. 1) SAR is a lot younger than JH and probably is on the trade block. Worth considering, and plausible. 2) I think a S&T with Chandler is a lot more likely than a S&T for Swift or that his best offer for Swift is our maxed out MLE. Just don't seeing the market for athletic young PFs with some current skills ever being THAT dried up.