[ESPN: Hollinger's team forcast]

If that's what the stats tell him, that's what he'll put down. I agree that it's crazy - I see Utah as treading water or regressing, not improving - but he's a stat guy and very consistent about it.

 

Hollinger's model probably takes into account all the games McGrady and Yao (not to mention Artest) are likely to miss due to injury. I think that's some thing a lot of us fans lose sight of. When you consider that, it's not crazy by any means to think Utah will have a better record than us. They were one of the very best regular season teams in the second half of last season, remember.

 

I get that part but I think that our team is more than able to beat them this year. When we lost to them two years ago, we were just a rebound short of beating them. Last year we lost Yao but were able to battle with them.

This year, our bench will be able to match theirs with no problem. I think that's what hurt the Rockets more than ever. Their bench always gave us fits.

 

wtf did utah do to make them the better team...

All i see them happening is getting 1 more year of same old same old by sloan and the players prob are already tired of him. No way AK stays happy and for another year if he sucks. also boozer's jumping ship. From the way i see it that team is ready to blow up.

 

Why do some people keep insisting Artest will play heavy PF minutes. We're not a gimmick team to be doing that kinda stuff. In favorable matchups yes. But otherwise we have other options. Artest on the wing opposite T-Mac forces guys like Kobe and Lebron to have to work both ends of the court for a full 48 minutes rather than stand next to a spot-up shooter and roam for doubles.

 

injuries included, adding ron artest should add more than 1 win to our total.

 

I don't understand why people see Artest playing heavy minutes as well at the PF position.

This team was by far the best when Scola was in the starting rotation at PF and Yao at center. This is when the time took off. Landry coming int to back him up. One thing I saw from Hollinger's team forcast was that he mentions that Landry might not produce like last year. I don't think that will happen unless he is hurt.

Match ups will be the key as to where Artest plays.

 

Hollinger is also betting that the rest of the team collectively played well over their heads a season ago. I think the 55 wins we posted last year was a semi-miracle. I mean, if instead of winning 22 games we went a more realistic 18-4 in that stretch, all of a sudden we're a 51-win team last year.

 

I don't think our team played over their heads but we did catch a few breaks here and there. Some of the great teams were missing a key player. Even though we didn't have Yao.

But we shall see. I don't think last year's team was a bunch of over achievers. If anything, they showed heart.

Look at the playoffs.

 

but what of the crappy start to the season during which we should've won more games? the way i see it, during the streak, we beat teams we were supposed to beat. i'll defend how great of an achievement it is all day long, but the truth is, we were mostly putting away average or bad teams.

our schedule last year was: start-jan = difficult. jan-allstar = average. allstar-may = easy. and may-end = difficult.

our piss poor start, and our amazing run, then stumbling into the post season is all reflected in our schedule. so because of that, i won't be taking any wins off of my projection. the rockets won 55 games, no more no less.

on the flip side, i also dislike when people add wins because stars missed games due to injury. "55 wins would've been 60 if yao never went down." for example. doesn't work that way either because our stars will continue to get injured.

jeez, i went off on a rant. sorry. 55 wins, then add artest. that's my story and i'm sticking to it.

 

It's very unlikely that Landry is as productive as he was last year. He started playing mid-season so he was still fresh. Teams had not scouted him yet. He was wide open on half of his dunks due to all the attention Tmac and Yao were drawing. He hit a hot streak for three weeks, then got injured before he could hit the rookie wall. There's no way he's shooting 60% for the season again. Teams are ready for him now.

If he continues to produce like he did last year, then his 3m salary is a bargain.

 

I liked your rant. Mind if I add something?

Adelman Year II is going to be a huge factor unto itself even without our additions, and that's going to be worth more than a few games.

In all our boredom of the last month or so I really expected a thread to pop up about this here. Adelman and Sikma have already made comments about wanting to "get done" some things they weren't quite able to last year after Yao went down.

 

I get what you're saying but you have to remember one thing, Landry finished like no other last year. I don't think that falls off for this year. You can't simply forget how to dunk and how to finish. You can read everyone's opinion about Landry on this board and they would all say Landry is simply one of the best finishers around the basket for the Rockets. Yao, Scola, Artest, and T-Mac don't dunk like him. Now what I can see is him having a hard time playing defense this year. He can rebound but he gave away a lot of cheap fouls. That's what i think he'll struggle with. Hopefully he worked on shooting.

 

hollinger is a rockets fan at heart. he's just being more reserved compared to last years prediction which had us winning the whole thing. he just doesn't want to jinx it

 

yeah but you could also say if we didn't start 15-17 or so.. and started a modest 22-10 we would be a 60+ win team

 

smoothie beat me to it, so I'll just add to everything he said.

Does Hollinger factor in that it took awhile to develop chemistry with a brand new coach/system (see declan32001's post), and Scola had a learning curve switching to the NBA, and Landry was a rookie. None of that is true this year. We don't have to implement an entire new system during pre-season. That's a big win right there. Hell, we could even say the poor start is what made us come together to treat the rest of the season more importantly, if not simply to say that our offense (which makes the whole greater than the sum of the "collective" parts) took awhile to gel.

55 wins is 55 wins. If Hollinger discounts (or as you call it, "Hollinger is betting" against) that achievement based on thinking we played over our heads, then he's editorializing his stats no differently than anyone other sportswriter.

 

That's great, but when your offense relies on others creating for you don't be surprised when it's suddenly taken away. Look at David Lee, another great finisher around the hoop. He still knows how to finish, but after a breakout season his FG%, rebounds, and assists all dropped the next year despite playing the same amount of time. Teams will take away the easy baskets.

 

This.

 

My thoughts on the Hollinger preview:

1. I think he's just being conservative about the Rockets because he got burned last year putting us as a 1-seed. A 3 seed and 1st in our division is still pretty good guys! And this time there will be no chance of a jinxjob.

2. Everyone here that is high on New Orleans is wrong. I don't know how else to say it. They are more of a threat to tumble due to injury than anyone because, frankly, they have NO DEPTH AT ALL. They were riddled with injuries two seasons ago, with mostly the same cast, and they didn't even make the playoffs.

3. Who else LOL'ed at this comment?

4. His projections are probably half statistics and half subjective analysis, which has me worried about one thing that could prove our expectations to be too high: T-Mac. Barring the playoffs, last year was definitely sub-par by his standards. The question for the computer to ask is, was that a blip off the radar (a sub 20PER year) or the beginning of the downward trend in his career? All the Rockets faithful (myself included) are presuming the former, because he completely took over in the playoffs, but that's probably the analysis' rationale for being pessimistic. That and the ridiculous season turned in by Carl Landry, which has no choice but to come down (unless...?!).

5. Just calm down guys. Hollinger knows what's down. He's always been fair/optimistic regarding the Rockets. Let it play out. The fewer natl media guys riding our jock, the more satisfying it will be when we PUNK EVERYONE.