[ESPN] Hollinger: Josh Smith can break Dream's record

Kind of early to be talking about breaking Hakeem's block record? Call me in 10 years.

 

He's blocking shots right now because he's so athletic. When he grow older and loose that jumping ability, i would expect his block number will go down significantly.

 

And Ken Griffey Jr. can break Hank Aaron's HR record.

 

Still, quite amazing though. 22 years old and already 1/5 of the way towards Hakeem's record?

 

Hakeem: Call me when he's on my block!

 

not gonna happen. no chance. sorry.

 

Deke will be the first to do it, Smith might have a chance at Deke's record.

 

17% or 0%. same thing.

 

Umm not quite.

Do I think he will do it, no. When I started this post i was going to say I fully expected someone in the next 15 years to break it. With all the people coming out earlier it makes it more likely somone will be able play more seasons than Hakeem thus giving them a great advantage. However after doing some math it seems highly unlikely to ever happen (maybe Oden if he is as advertised and remains healthy here on out).

Let's do some math shall we. Let's say someone comes out at 20 and averages 2.8 blks per game over the course of his career (Hakeem averaged 3.09). Let's also say he is pretty healthy and averages 70 games a year. This would mean the player would have to play 19.5 seasons aka 20. I don't see anyone (especially a center) being able to pound it out (most blockers play a very hard game) for 20 seasons. That would be 1400 games played which is very close to the NBA record held my Parrish and he did almost nothing for the final 5 years of his career.

Probably the best shot blocker of the 2000's, the modern NBA, is Marcus Camby. Even he averages only 2.6 blocks per games. Averaging that the player would have to play 21 years in the NBA.

And the guy who most likely has the best chance is Dwight Howard. The guy is just now the age Hakeem was when he entered the NBA and will have 600+ blocks at the end of this year. He hasn't been a great shot blocker but he continues to improve every year and has the sheer strength and athletic ability to average 3+ for many years in a row. He has been extremely durable so far in his career and if he plays roughly to the age of Hakeem (38-39) he will have the 20-21 seasons needed. He just has to raise he average.

 

He's a Power Forward.....

 

can doesnt mean he will. He needs to maintain a very high level of play, no injuries, to do that. Records are meant to be broken, so it will be broken by somebody one day.

 

maybe but the game seems to be changing.

 

Deke????????

 

think he's referring to his athleticism vs. the wingspan that gives deke his advantage.

 

umm yes. at least when it comes to josh smith's chances of breaking that record.

no current player has any chance at all. obviously oden is an unknown but howard simply isn't anywhere close to the defensive player dream was even if he has age on his side.

 

And Kelvin Cato will be our center for years to come.

 

josh smith has no chance, he relies on athleticism to get blocks, when that goes so will his block #'s, unlike deke or Akeem when he got old, those guys still had the size to get blocks, once josh smith starts to lose some ups he'll block much less.......not an insult to josh, but he's just smaller.