[ESPN]Hollinger: 1-6 Rockets still better than Jazz, Hawks, Spurs

see...i think the NBA is entirely predictable. the most predictable of all the pro sports. you know with a higher degree of certainty than you do in the other sports, who will likely be in the Finals. who is more likely to win it all. you know more before the season even begins than you do in the other sports.

by the way...to be clear...i'm not saying i don't think the rockets will improve from 2-6...that they're not better than that.

 

Overall I like the idea behind these rankings. Using point differentials and strength of schedule is a better measure of who is the better team, not necessarily reflected in their records. For instance, a few years ago the Mavericks had the best record in the league, but a worse point differential than the Spurs. One lost in the first round to the Warriors and the other won the championship.

But I noticed one BIG flaw in Hollinger's formula, it is not to detract from the spirit of his analysis, but rather just an egregious error.

His use and calculation of SOS.

This is calculated with the actual win/loss record by the team's opponents. However, the whole point of his analysis is that the actual win/loss record may not tell the whole story. That it may misrepresent the actual strength of the team. So then using win/loss record for SOS calculation defeats the whole point of the rest of his formula.

For instance:

Boston is ranked 4th currently with a +5.22 differential. They are not ranked higher because their SOS is .569.

However, their SOS is not higher only because they have played the 5-4 Heat twice. The Heat who are ranked #1 in Hollinger's only rating!

The correct way to calculate the SOS is to use his own rating system- an actual representation of the strength of the team- rather than simple win/loss.

 

Of course there is no way to have his own rating without the SOS in the first place... A chicken and egg thing.

Even so, simply using point differential instead of win/loss to calculate SOS could improve the quality of the rankings.

 

He was probably thinking about last year.