ESPN: Chad Ford's Mock Draft #3 - Rockets pick Wayne Simien

I know, I know...it's Chad Ford crap.

But the offseason has been boring and the draft is coming up. Hopefully he's right and we get Simien. If not, Diogu, Taft, Warrick, etc. might still be available.

From Insider:

First round is crowded
By Chad Ford

The deadline for withdrawing from the NBA draft passed on Tuesday with way too many underclassmen still making themselves available.

First-round hopefuls Martynas Andriuskevicius, Andrew Bynum, Yaroslav Korolev, Ike Diogu, Jarrett Jack, Randolph Morris, Roko Ukic, Ersan Ilyasova, Johan Petro, Mile Ilic, Linas Kleiza, Matt Walsh, C. J. Miles and Louis Williams all decided to roll the dice on the first round.

The good news is that the second round of this year's draft might be the strongest in the history of the draft. The bad news is that a number of those first-round hopefuls are going to be the players that make the second round so great.

There just isn't enough room in the first round for all of them.

Then factor in a new collective bargaining agreement that creates the NBA's first true minor league. In my breakdown Tuesday night of the new CBA, I wrote that the NBDL and age minimum could seriously alter this year's draft strategy for a number of teams – encouraging teams to draft younger players with big upsides because of the ability to develop players down the road.

Big-upside players such as Martynas Andriuskevicius, Andrew Bynum, Yaroslav Korolev and Ersan Ilyasova suddenly look much more interesting to teams than they did 24 hours ago.

Combine that with lots and lots of trade talk and rumors of promises, and the draft is still virtually impossible to mock just seven days before selection day.

Here's our best shot.

1. MILWAUKEE BUCKS
Andrew Bogut
UTAH | SOPHOMORE | CENTER
HEIGHT: 7-0 | WEIGHT: 250 | AGE: 20
A mock draft is supposed to tell you who the Bucks are going to take … not who they should take. I still believe that Marvin Williams should be the No. 1 pick in the draft, but all the chatter I'm hearing out of Milwaukee is that the Bucks are leaning strongly in Bogut's direction. Don't get me wrong, it's not a bad pick. Bogut has the chance to be special and he's a low-risk player. But I'm still not convinced it's the right decision.


2. ATLANTA HAWKS
Marvin Williams
NORTH CAROLINA | FRESHMAN | SMALL FORWARD
HEIGHT: 6-8 | WEIGHT: 230 | AGE: 18
There's talk that the Hawks want Deron Williams and are flirting with him at No. 2. He's a great point guard, but he's the wrong Williams at No. 2. If the Hawks really want Deron, they should swap with the Blazers or Hornets, both of whom would love to get their hands on Marvin. Otherwise you take Marvin and trade the other guys on the team that play the same position.


3. PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS
Chris Paul
WAKE FOREST | SOPHOMORE | POINT GUARD
HEIGHT: 6-1 | WEIGHT: 178 | AGE: 20
The Blazers won't take Paul at No. 3. If, for some reason, they own this pick on draft night, Gerald Green would be the guy. So why is Paul the pick here? Because it's now almost a foregone conclusion that the Blazers are going to trade this pick. It could be to the Hawks, Bobcats, Jazz, Raptors or Lakers … but the chances of Portland selecting at No. 3 seem very slim at this point. Anyone else in this position will be deciding between Paul and Deron Williams.


4. NEW ORLEANS HORNETS
Deron Williams
ILLINOIS | JUNIOR | POINT GUARD
HEIGHT: 6-3 | WEIGHT: 210 | AGE: 20
The Hornets have a greater need at small forward. They'd love to move up and get Marvin Williams and they're flirting with swapping with Utah and taking Danny Granger. If they stay here, Williams is the guy. They think he's a big upgrade over Speedy Claxton and Dan Dickau. It's hard to argue with that.


5. CHARLOTTE BOBCATS
Danny Granger
NEW MEXICO | SENIOR | SMALL FORWARD
HEIGHT: 6-8 | WEIGHT: 225 | AGE: 22
The Bobcats are trying to move up in the draft to get their hands on Marvin Williams or Paul. If Paul, Marvin and Deron Williams are off the board, the team will choose between potential (Green) and immediate impact (Granger). Given Bernie Bickerstaff's track record last year, don't be surprised if it's Granger.


6. UTAH JAZZ
Channing Frye
ARIZONA | SENIOR | CENTER
HEIGHT: 6-11 | WEIGHT: 245 | AGE: 22
Call this a hunch. The Jazz still are trying to move up to get a shot at Paul or Deron Williams. If they're unsuccessful, they'll try to address their other need for a big, athletic shot blocker. For months they were high on Vazquez, but have cooled considerably in the last week. That leaves Frye as the most logical choice. He hasn't worked out for the Jazz, but that doesn't mean they won't take him. He'd be a good fit in Utah.


7. TORONTO RAPTORS
Gerald Green
GULF SHORES ACADEMY (Texas) | H.S. | SHOOTING GUARD
HEIGHT: 6-7 | WEIGHT: 192 | AGE: 19
This is a dream scenario for the Raptors. Green could go as high as No. 3 and he'll get long looks from both the Hornets and Bobcats. If he falls here, the Raptors would get a potential star to pair with Chris Bosh. He reminds many scouts of Tracy McGrady and for good reason. He's a few years away from being that player, but the potential is well worth it. If he's gone, Raymond Felton, Fran Vazquez, Frye and Granger would all get serious consideration.


8. NEW YORK KNICKS
Fran Vazquez
SPAIN | POWER FORWARD
HEIGHT: 6-11 | WEIGHT: 230 | AGE: 22
Sources claim that the Knicks made a promise to Frye and shut down his workouts. It may have been too little, too late. Other teams are on to Frye and the chances he makes it to the Knicks have now diminished. If he's not there, the Knicks will still look to go big. Vazquez is the other big guy who could come in and play right away.


9. GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS
Ike Diogu
ARIZONA STATE | JUNIOR | POWER FORWARD
HEIGHT: 6-8 | WEIGHT: 255 | AGE: 21
The Warriors want Frye or Granger, but if those two are off the board, they'll look for the next-best power forward. Sean May, Hakim Warrick and Chris Taft will all get looks here as well. Diogu gets the nod because of his length (he has the reach of a 7-footer, a la Elton Brand) and shot-blocking ability.


10. LOS ANGELES LAKERS
Martell Webster
SEATTLE PREP | H.S. | SHOOTING GUARD
HEIGHT: 6-7 | WEIGHT: 235 | AGE: 18
There is talk, a lot of talk, that the Lakers have promised high school center Andrew Bynum that they'll take him if they keep their pick. Bynum sure looks like Shaq, and he's worked out well, but it's just a little too much to believe right now. It would be years before Phil Jackson would give him a whiff of playing time. Until we get to the bottom of the Bynum stuff, we're moving Felton out and Webster in. With Jackson running the show, the Lakers are going to need a big shooter. Webster is the best on the board. Think of him as a young Glen Rice.


11. ORLANDO MAGIC
Sean May
NORTH CAROLINA | JUNIOR | POWER FORWARD
HEIGHT: 6-8 | WEIGHT: 260 | AGE: 21
The Magic like Webster as well, but also feel like they need a tough scorer and rebounder in the paint, and May should be a perfect fit. Though he's a little undersized to play his natural position (center) in the pros, he should be fine paired with Dwight Howard.


12. LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS
Yaroslav Korolev
RUSSIA | SMALL FORWARD
HEIGHT: 6-9 | WEIGHT: 215 | AGE: 17
We're torn. We've heard two names associated with the Clippers all month. One is Korolev, who Russian sources claim received a promise from the Clippers. The other is Antoine Wright, whom Dunleavy fell in love with early in the draft process. Whom to choose? Our Clippers source told us in Treviso that there were certain players they'd take in front of Korolev. Is Wright one of them? We're still sorting it out, but until we hear otherwise, we've got to go with Korolev here. Given the latest revelations about the new NBDL minor league, Dunleavy can bring him over and get him some valuable experience in the D league.


13. CHARLOTTE BOBCATS
Raymond Felton
NORTH CAROLINA | JUNIOR | POINT GUARD
HEIGHT: 6-0 | WEIGHT: 200 | AGE: 20
This is a real steal for the Bobcats if they can land Felton here. The Bobcats need a point guard badly and he's a local kid to boot. He's the fastest point guard in the draft baseline to baseline, has improved his outside shooting and is an excellent floor leader. A major upgrade over what they have now.


14. MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES
Antoine Wright
TEXAS A&M | JUNIOR | SHOOTING GUARD
HEIGHT: 6-7 | WEIGHT: 210 | AGE: 21
There are lots of different ways the Timberwolves could go here. Bynum, Joey Graham and Charlie Villanueva could also get looks. It will be tough for them to pass on Wright's versatility and perimeter shooting – especially with Latrell Sprewell heading into free agency.


15. NEW JERSEY NETS
Hakim Warrick
SYRACUSE | SENIOR | POWER FORWARD
HEIGHT: 6-8 | WEIGHT: 218 | AGE: 22
He's not Kenyon Martin, but he's long, athletic and runs the floor. Plus, he has the experience to contribute immediately. With Jason Kidd running the show, Warrick should get a lot of dunks.


16. TORONTO RAPTORS
Andrew Bynum
ST. JOSEPH (METUCHEN, N.J.) | H.S. | CENTER
HEIGHT: 7-0 | WEIGHT: 300 | AGE: 17
The talk is that he's going to either the Lakers or the Timberwolves. But if he falls this far, Raptors GM Rob Babcock will be tempted. The Raptors desperately need a big man with size and toughness. Bynum has that. He's blown people away in workouts with his skills, soft touch and intelligence. He may be a few years away, but landing two potential stars in Green and Bynum to team with Chris Bosh could completely turn the Raptors around in a couple of years. If Bynum's off the board, Croatian point guard Roko Ukic has turned a lot of heads in Toronto.


17. INDIANA PACERS
Martynas Andriuskevicius
LITHUANIA | POWER FORWARD
HEIGHT: 7-3 | WEIGHT: 230 | AGE: 19
The Pacers do need to find a replacement for Reggie Miller's shooting, but will likely try to do that with a veteran in free agency. Guys such as Francisco Garcia and Rashad McCants are possibilities, but neither would likely be able to crack the lineup next year. Andriuskevicius could go much earlier than this, based on potential, but it's been tough to find a place for a guy who physically is still a good two years away from being able to contribute. He needs a team willing to be patient. No one has a better track record of that over the years than the Pacers. Now that teams will be able to send players down to the D League, the risk is minimized. This is a long-term project for a team that doesn't have a lot of holes to fill.


18. BOSTON CELTICS
Joey Graham
OKLAHOMA STATE | SENIOR | SMALL FORWARD
HEIGHT: 6-7 | WEIGHT: 216 | AGE: 22
The Celtics were flirting with taking an international player (such as Ersan Ilyasova or Andriuskevicius) and stashing him overseas, but it's tough to see them passing on Graham, a big, physical small forward who tested out as the best athlete in Chicago. He could step in and immediately help the Celtics next season .


19. MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES
Julius Hodge
NORTH CAROLINA STATE | SENIOR | SHOOTING GUARD
HEIGHT: 6-7 | WEIGHT: 205 | AGE: 21
Hodge might not be the greatest shooter in the draft, but he has all the intangibles Jerry West loves in his players. He's tough and versatile, and he seems to want it more than most guys on the floor. The Grizzlies believe he'll be a point guard, at least part-time, in the pros. It looks as though they'll lose Earl Watson to free agency and wouldn't mind losing Jason Williams in a trade, so the position is a need. Hodge has earned good reviews in every workout and seems to have moved himself up with every one. West has a history of ignoring convention, which explains why a player like Hodge would go this high.


20. DENVER NUGGETS
Ersan Ilyasova
TURKEY | SMALL FORWARD
HEIGHT: 6-9 | WEIGHT: 220 | AGE: 18
With multiple picks, the Nuggets plan to leave at least one guy in Europe for a few years. Many believe Ilyasova was the best young prospect in Europe before a severe ankle injury kept him out most of the year. His workouts went well enough in Chicago to secure his place in the mid-first round.


21. PHOENIX SUNS
Johan Petro
FRANCE | CENTER
HEIGHT: 7-1 | WEIGHT: 250 | AGE: 19
Petro has the size and talent of a lottery pick, but he has been very slow to develop it, which has caused some NBA teams to worry. Petro is probably another year or two away from helping a team even if he does develop. However, if he ever gets it, he could be the perfect center in the Suns' system down the road.


22. DENVER NUGGETS
Francisco Garcia
LOUISVILLE | JUNIOR | SHOOTING GUARD
HEIGHT: 6-7 | WEIGHT: 190 | AGE: 23
The Nuggets opt for upside with their first pick and go with need for their second. The team needs perimeter shooting badly, and Garcia can deliver. He's not the greatest athlete in the world, but he can stroke it and plays with the passion George Karl likes in his players. High school guard Monta Ellis is also a possibility here. The Nuggets love him, but would Karl ever play him?


23. SACRAMENTO KINGS
Rashad McCants
NORTH CAROLINA | JUNIOR | SHOOTING GUARD
HEIGHT: 6-4 | WEIGHT: 200 | AGE: 20
McCants might be the toughest guy in the draft to project. On talent, he's easily a top-10 pick, maybe top-five. But just about every team in the league has uncovered a number of red flags on the background check. He's going to have to prove to teams that whatever problems he had at North Carolina are behind him. If he does, he'll go higher. If he doesn't, he'll slip down to a team like the Kings, who need that help at the two and are willing to take the risk on such a talent.


24. HOUSTON ROCKETS
Wayne Simien
KANSAS | SENIOR | POWER FORWARD
HEIGHT: 6-9 | WEIGHT: 255 | AGE: 22
The Rockets could use a tough rebounder with experience, and Simien fits the bill. Concerns about injuries and size are the only things keeping him out of the lottery. He's one of the few guys who isn't afraid to go inside and bang, but also has a nice perimeter game. He has worked out really well just about everywhere.

25. SEATTLE SUPERSONICS
Jarrett Jack
GEORGIA TECH | JUNIOR | POINT GUARD
HEIGHT: 6-3 | WEIGHT: 200 | AGE: 21
Jack could be off the board in the mid-first round, but it's conceivable he could slip all the way to here. He's a very good point guard prospect who just needs to cut down on his turnovers. With Antonio Daniels set to bolt in free agency, the Sonics will have a strong need for a backup point guard with size and toughness.


26. DETROIT PISTONS
Ryan Gomes
PROVIDENCE | SENIOR | SMALL FORWARD
HEIGHT: 6-8 | WEIGHT: 250 | AGE: 22
Gomes is a skilled forward, an inside-outside scoring threat who reminds some scouts of Corliss Williamson. He started his career at the four, but played really well at the three this year. He's a good offensive rebounder, has extended his range to the NBA 3-point line and is a good passer. He also has a 7-foot-2 wingspan.


27. UTAH JAZZ
Roko Ukic
CROATIA | POINT GUARD
HEIGHT: 6-6 | WEIGHT: 218 | AGE: 21
He has had a great year in Croatia and wowed scouts at the Reebok Eurocamp. Could go as high as No. 16 to the Raptors and will get long looks from the Celtics and Nuggets. A little wild for Jerry Sloan's taste, but he's long, plays defense, and is very tough and experienced. If he could shoot, he'd be a much higher pick. Look for the Jazz to leave him overseas for another season or two.


28. SAN ANTONIO SPURS
Charlie Villanueva
CONNECTICUT | SOPHOMORE | POWER FORWARD
HEIGHT: 6-10 | WEIGHT: 240 | AGE: 20
Villanueva has the skills of a lottery pick but proved to be a bit lazy and unreliable at UConn. He could go as high as the late lottery or he could slip all the way to San Antonio. He has all the offensive skills to be a perfect fit for the Spurs. And head coach Gregg Popovich is the right coach to motivate Villanueva to play some defense.


29. MIAMI HEAT
Mile Ilic
SERBIA | CENTER
HEIGHT: 7-1 | WEIGHT: 240 | AGE: 20
Ilic surprised a lot of people by keeping his name in the draft. He's a young, talented, big man who has really come on of late. Recently had an impressive 24-point, 10-rebound, two-block performance in front of a number of NBA scouts during the Serbia playoffs. Apparently that sealed the deal. Ilic doesn't have a buyout this year, so he may not come over right away. The Nuggets and Knicks are other teams who have shown a lot of interest in him.


30. NEW YORK KNICKS
Andray Blatche
SOUTH KENT PREP (Conn.) | H.S. | POWER FORWARD
HEIGHT: 6-11 | WEIGHT: 240 | AGE: 18
Blatche has been under the radar all year, in part, because he's insisted on not playing like a 7-footer in order to show NBA scouts that he's versatile. Blatche has been referred to as a poor man's Kevin Garnett and he has enough skills to be an intriguing pick for the Knicks at 30. He runs the floor well, can handle the ball, has 3-point range on his jumper and is an excellent rebounder. He may be a year or two away, but eventually he and Vazquez could give the Knicks a much taller and more talented front line.


Other first-round possibilities: Chris Taft, PF, Pittsburgh; Randolph Morris, C, Kentucky; Monta Ellis, G, HS senior; Luther Head, G, Illinois; David Lee, PF, Florida; Kennedy Winston, G/F, Alabama; Nate Robinson, G, Washington; Ronny Turiaf, PF, Gonzaga; Matt Walsh, G/F, Florida; Linas Kleiza, F, Missouri; Mickael Gelabale, F, France; Jason Maxiell, PF, Cincinnati; C. J. Miles, SG, HS Senior; Louis Williams, SG, HS Senior