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[ESPN] Carlos Correa open to long-term contract with Houston Astros, if done before season starts

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by t4rm5la4r, Feb 23, 2021.

  1. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Very good article with lots of information. Makes me a little more bullish on Correa to the point where I think a $200M guarantee is totally feasible if he has a good year. $300M is still totally out of the question, but a monster year might get him in the $250M range from a team desperate to make a splash. As that article noted, despite all the missed time, Correa is firmly on a hall of fame track and projects to be fairly productive for 9 more years.

    From the Astros perspective, a $200M guarantee, front loaded with an opt out, is probably the best realistic chance they have to lock him up without crippling the franchise. Something like $210M/9yr guaranteed plus incentives:

    Year 1: $35M
    Year 2: $35M, opt out after 2023
    Year 3-9: $20M/yr, plus up to $13M/yr in incentives for games played, all-star appearances, and MVP awards

    That would guarantee Correa $210M, make him one of the 3 highest paid players in the league in 2022-2023, and allow him to Re-enter free agency as a 29 year old. And even if he doesn’t opt out, the incentives would max the contract out at $300M.
     
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  2. PhiSlammaJamma

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    The market dictates what you earn, not your stats. Which is what makes Correa's ultimatum so interesting because he removed the market from the equation for the Astros. That forces the Astros hand to low ball Correa based on his stats. The Astros, if you ask me, have been put in a virtual position to fail. And I wonder if that's on purpose.
     
  3. Mr.Pringles

    Mr.Pringles Member

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    Advanced metrics say you’re wrong. He’s third in WAR over the last four seasons and probably could be even better without a few minor injuries.
     
  4. xcrunner51

    xcrunner51 Contributing Member

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    that is a terrible contract for the team. He would almost certainly opt out after 2 years having been paid well above AAV for those years.

    I see no reason to front load a contract for a guy who hasn’t consistently played up to his potential.
     
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  5. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    I will admit that contract only makes sense if Houston feels optimistic about Correa’s long term health. But if that’s the case, a front loaded contract allows Houston to potentially keep Correa thru the heart of time they have remaining with their original core (Altuve and Bregman) without committing massive amounts of money to Correa beyond that. $35M/yr for a hall of fame SS’s age 28 and 29 seasons is an amazing value.
     
  6. STR8Thugg

    STR8Thugg STR8Thugg Member
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    I knew someone was going to say this nonsense. Im not going to compare Bryce freaking Harper to Correa. That’s a complete ****ing joke.
     
  7. Redfish81

    Redfish81 Member

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    LOL. You pick a data set that takes out Tatis JR since he was in A ball 4 years ago. Plus, Story was in his first full season. The next 2 seasons he had a WAR above 5. Something Correa hasn't done since 2017....

    Nice cherry picking of stats.

    I can play your game also. Last 3 seasons of WAR according to fangraphs....

    Lindor 14
    Story 13.8
    Bogaerts 13.6
    Trea Turner 11
    Anderson 7.5
    Tatis JR 6.5 (WASN'T EVEN IN MLB FOR 2018)
    CORREA 5.7
     
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  8. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    The problem is the Astros would pay value for two years of Correa (maybe 10-20M in surplus value best case) or get ten years of bad Correa (surplus value in the -100M+ range). The Astros are unlikely to risk 100+M for 10-20M. Astros may be willing to do a swell opt which would lower long term risk if Correa doesn’t perform, but rewards Correa long term if he does.
     
  9. Astrofan59

    Astrofan59 Member

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    Fangraphs has him 13th over the same period, so some metrics say he is right.
     
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  10. vince

    vince Member

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    Carlos Correa is special. But I wonder if his injuries have nixed his ceiling from his potential as a young player. We saw short glimpses of greatness, but quickly followed by some injury that nullified what he was doing.

    I am hopeful he can still touch his MVP greatness gear, but I’m hesitant to say he will.
     
  11. PhiSlammaJamma

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    Don't forget we are likely entering a dead ball season, possibly a dead ball era. That's not likely going to effect the rankings, but the stats should fall across the board.
     
  12. Roc Paint

    Roc Paint Contributing Member

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    Newsflash Carlos Correa ends up in New York City next year
     
  13. Nook

    Nook Member

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    Honestly not even all THAT worried about losing Carlos Correa when discussing 250+ million dollars. I can spread that money out and likely end up better off.
     
  14. Roc Paint

    Roc Paint Contributing Member

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    Absolutely Nook
     
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  15. Mr.Pringles

    Mr.Pringles Member

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    When the Astros eliminate the Yankees from the ALCS again.
     
    Plowman, dc rock, rockbox and 3 others like this.

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