[ESPN] Carlos Correa open to long-term contract with Houston Astros, if done before season starts

I honestly can't believe the amount of people on here trying to claim Correa isn't worth resigning.

I mean wtf is going on.

Yeah he has an injury history. Yeah there are concerns. He is a monster in the postseason, he wants to be here, and he's top 3 in war among shortstops over the last 4 years despite all the games missed. If you think he's not worth it, you're overthinking it.

 

He may take that but he would get way more on the open market.

 

You think he'd turn down 30 million a year with an opportunity to become a free agent again when he's 30 (or 31, depending on the start date)

 

I said I think he may take that because he wants to be here. I don't know for sure, but I would think he is more keen to a longer deal with more overall money than salary per season. I could be wrong.

 

People are saying Correa is too risky to dup 250-350 million dollars on and I agree with that sentiment. He isn't Mike Trout or Mookie Betts or even Garret Cole.

 

No, a healthy Carlos Correa is one of the top 5-10 talents in baseball. I also strongly suspect he is capable of being the best player in baseball. He hasn't really been able to stack healthy seasons up to build on. He was arguably the best defensive shortstop in baseball last year and he is capable of hitting well over .300 and mashing nearly 50 baseballs...... with him it is an issue of his back, an organization that cannot really afford to "miss" on someone on a long contract.

 

I do not think Correa will accept that although it would be more than fair. Now move the opt out up to be after the 1st or 2nd year and I think he might consider it, especially if it were front loaded. Getting $40M/yr for 2 seasons then able to enter free agency at 29 would be a great deal for him.

 

Maybe I am desperate, but I would risk 250 for 10. I would definitely do that. Everything we know about him is that he is fully committed to Houston, he works really hard at his craft, and he is a supremely clutch player with limitless upside.

Is there a downside? Hell yes. But he is absolutely a risk worth taking.

 

Do you have chronic back problems (I don't mean it in a snarky way either)? They do ebb and flow and yes, it is very likely that he has had periods where the back felt good and other periods when it did not, and that can certainly happen within a season.

Sure, Correa can heal and answer most of the questions about his back by having a healthy and productive season which he hasn't really had. Also, we don't really know what his scans say concerning his back. Does he have abnormal degeneration? Does he just have a disc bulge that will from time to time be inflamed? My concern isn't Correa playing through pain, he is tough. However there have been times where he has clearly not been able to drive the ball or catch up with heat inside and that is common for back issues.

The difference with Alvarez and Correa is that the Astros are not talking about committing hundreds of millions of dollars to Alvarez right now. If Alvarez has issues where he cannot push off his knee, keeps missing games .... then I will be on here saying he isn't worth hundreds of millions of dollars either.

 

From what Astros employees have consistently told me about his contract demands, yes I think he would turn that down.

However, who really knows for sure.... some times people's priorities or mind sets change.

 

What do you think he would get, knowing the SS market?

 

Of course it is very tempting..... and if the Astros were the Dodgers or Yankees it would be more doable to withstand a contract that size going south.

However just go look at the contracts in baseball history that are longer than 7 years and see how those turned out..... not good.

Even the ones that were better, like the first A-Rod contract resulted in the player being dealt because because of financial issues and the Rangers had to send cash out.

Look at the Pujols deal.

 

Yep. That Pujols contract pretty much single handedly prevented the Angels from adding the pieces around Trout to win, and the Astros probably don't even have as much financial muscle as the Angels. They simply cannot afford to risk 15% of their annual payroll over an entire decade on a guy with an extensive injury history and a body that projects to age out of his position.

Now, at $200M and below it is reasonable.

 

That's tough... idk if other teams will even look at it him as a SS.

I expect if they let this year play out and he stays healthy, he has a monster year, and if that happens I think someone will give him 325 over 10 years.

If he has an up and down year with injuries, plays 100-120 games, and bats something like .265 with a .790-.800 OPS I still think he gets at least 200.

If we resign him before this season we may be able to get him at a discount.

 

I assume you are looking at bWAR, because looking at fWAR he is 13th among shortstops over the last 4 years. Also, I haven't seen anybody say he is not worth resigning. I have seen some say he is not worth the money he may be asking for. They are not the same thing

 

He'll be a bust. Let him go.

What can we expect from a guy who breaks ribs during a massage? Hell, the weight of this new contract could break a rib if he's reading it in bed and sets it on his chest.

 

If somebody gives him 325 over 10 years, then I wish him well with whichever team that is. But that means there are 4 other shortstops getting more than that. It will make for a very expensive off-season

 

It doesn't mean 4 other shortstops will get more than that. How do you figure. Most teams will look at him with the most upside I would assume.

 

In the second scenario I cant see any team signing him for 10 years.

 

If Correa has a good year he will be worth more than Baez. But I am not sure I objectively prefer Correa over Story, Seager, or Lindor. Of course because he’s been with the Astros I prefer they keep him, but if Correa is asking for $300M and Story is asking for $200M then give me Story.