You nervous nellies need to hop off the Stroswagon - never give up never surrender. See you in october.
You can sell without trading all three. There is no excuse for not exploring trading Valverde and Tejada, along with any other veterans (erstad/loretta) in the coming weeks and months. One option would be to sell everything you can except for Berkman and Oswalt and keep them around to keep interest up while you rebuild. Whether any of the big three would waive a no-trade clause is something only they can answer (Oswalt has at least hinted at it in the past), but it would be irresponsible of management to not at least think about it. The astros aren't going to be able to contend with this group and, even if everything goes well, by the time it can be reasonably expected for the Astros to be ready to contend again, those three will either be retired or be well into the decline phases of their careers. It's likely going to take years to put the astros in position to contend again. If they are able to leverage their assets wisely now, while they still can, maybe they can cut that time down a little. Or if you've enjoyed the past season and a half of trotting out a 70 win club, you can just root for management to hold steady and go through seasons like this for the next decade. -The A's made out pretty well in the Blanton deal. They cut money, Cardenas > Blanton for the next 5 years and beyond, and they got some nice filler. -That said, Oswalt would bring in more than Blanton, imo. First of all, right now in their careers Oswalt>>>>Blanton. Much much better player. Even this year with all the struggles and talk of declining stats, his peripherals are better than anything Blanton has put up in his career. Oswalt is going to be fine going forward. -Oswalt has one of the better veteran contracts in baseball. Oswalt is more expensive now, but Blanton is going to start getting a lot more expensive very quickly due to arbitration. He will also reach free agency a few years sooner than Oswalt. I would guess Oswalt would probably fetch something on par with what the Twins were offered for Santana.
This I can agree with. I just don't think that trading the big 3 is a wise idea for the reasons I mentioned. It's going to take YEARS to improve this team worth 10 to 12 games a season? We aren't very good, but we aren't the Royals either. Blanton will end up pitching better for longer. It was a move that was just as much about later as it was about now. Oh, and I disagree that Oswalt is a much better pitcher than Blanton. His stats this year and injury concerns at age 30 seem to tell a different tale. A pitcher in his 30s who has not pitched well at all this year is going to fetch a similar price as the Mets overpaid for Santana? Not even close.
They need to improve by more than 10-12 games to be legit contenders imo. They've been a ~72 win team the last two years. 82-84 wins will only rarely get you in the playoffs. And, we are probably in worse shape than the Royal going forward. In fact, we are probably competing with the Giants for the bleakest intermediate and long-term future. The astros are an old team with half their payroll committed to 3 30 yr players. And there is no help coming from the minors in next ~2 years at least. They're in pretty bad shape going foward,imo. Blanton has never been more than a league average innings eater. There is value in that, but that's not better than what Oswalt will give you now and going forward Especially considering that Blanton is a fly-ball pitcher moving from pitching in one of the best pitcher's parks in front of the league best defense to pitching in philly in a bandbox with a bad defense behind him. it could get ugly for him. Look past the ERA this year with Oswalt. Aside from the early hr binge, he's put up some of the best peripheral numbers he has in years. A dead arm and low velocity his first month go a long way to explaining his hr trouble early in the season. It's an injury, but it is something he's dealt with almost every year in the past, and it's not a long-term type of injury. He's peripheral # improvement suggests to me that he'll be fine going forward. He's backed that up by pitching like he's old self for the last month or so. Sabathia is 28, overweight, and in the last year of his contract with a ~4 era, and he still fetched a top ten prospect. Oswalt would as well.
We are currently 1 game ahead of the Royals in the standings. Last season, we ended 4 games better. We may not be the Royals, but we are very, very close. Blanton has a career ERA of 4.25 and an ERA this season of 4.95 (worse than Oswalt's 4.56). He may have potential, but he has yet to realize it. I don't think there's a team in baseball that would take Blanton over a healthy Oswalt. Before this season (in which Oswalt has been better than Blanton in ERA, WHIP, K's, Walks, W-L record - everything, basically), Oswalt's worst season of his career is better than Blanton's best. Blanton may pitch longer, certainly, but when trading for a pitcher, you're not trading for their entire career. You're trading for the time you have them under control. After that, they are a free agent and you could get them anyway. Oswalt, if healthy, should fetch substantially more than Blanton.
What are Roy's injury concerns? His hip? Roy is waaaay better than Blanton will ever be first of all, Roy is a straight up stud while Blanton is an average innings eater type of pitcher. The Phils might have been better off getting Randy Wolf short term than giving up three prospects for Blanton. Billy Beane totally jacked the Phillies. Also, Roy's last contract was something like $50 million less than Santana's so while he might not fetch a Guerra, Gomez, and more... he would probably get Guerra and Gomez or one of them and more.
Also, for what it's worth, Jon Rauch (Nationals closer) got traded today. Rumors are that Fuentes and Street are both likely to be traded in the next week as well. If there's demand for closers, the Astros should definitely be looking at moving Valverde.
renting another player??? I don't have the words...yet again another former Philly. Look Ed...we've been through this before when a guy tried to bring in broken down former Knicks to our city. Didn't work out. Why don't you...ah what the hell... FIRE WADE! WADE=GARBAGE
I certainly would look at moving Valverde. I would look at moving Tejada as well, but you'd have to have somebody to play SS (and no, Loretta cannot be an everyday SS).
This little tidbit from FOXsports article says it all: "The immediate reaction of several executives to the Astros' pursuit of Padres left-hander Randy Wolf, which was first reported by ESPN.com: Why? Wolf is 1-6 with a 6.63 ERA in 10 starts away from Petco Park. He has not made more than 23 starts in a season since 2003. And, oh yeah, the Astros are 10 games out in the wild-card race. ..."
It's going to take a major trade or two to acouple of desperate teams... for example.. Texas trades Teixeira and Ron Mahay for JArrod Saltalamacchia, Neftali Feliz, Elvis Andrus, Matt Harrison, and Beau Jones.. Rangers obviously raped the Braves in this trade simply because we stocked up our System with good young players with big upsides, not to mention the guy every rangers fan is giddy about-Neftali Feliz..talk about an ace in the making.... And when we traded Gagne we ended up raping even more.. We ended up with David Murphy, Engel Beltre (who has drawn comparisons to Griffey as far as physical tools)and Kason Gabbard and good young inning eater.. Anyway my point is that selling to the right team at the right time is key. Especially if they are in a tight playoff race. DO you really think the Braves can get what they gave up for Tex back?? No way.. not even half of what they traded.. But they were in a Division race when we traded to them and they were thinking about that particular year. I think a good trading partner would be someone like... the CHi Sox, Philly, Mets, or Florida. All those teams are in a pennant race and may need a starting pitcher for the long haul. Of course patience is key.. Maybe the Stros should just put Oswalt up for grabs and see who offers the most like the Tex deal? Just say hey WHO WANTS HIM??
You understand he'll get us at least one high draft pick next season when he leaves in free agency, right?
Well that's if he rejects arbitration (and he did sign a 1-year contract) and pitches just well enough to be a Type-B.
In the general scheme of things, this trade is nothing to fret over, unless Reineke ever amounts to anything significant. The Astros are paying a couple of million dollars to try out Wolf for the rest of the season. That money is not going to hurt them this year. Since everyone agrees that this season is shot, he will not hurt them. They have no young stud ready to step in this year so he is not keeping someone down. After the season the following will happen: 1. Wolf pitches well and the Astros resign him for a few years. 2. Wolf pitches well, the Astros offer arbitration, Wolf declines, the Astros get a compensatory pick (Since he piitches well, assume Type A or B) 3. Wolf pitches poorly. The Astros do not sign. No harm, no foul.
Anyway, I think there are two reasonable sides to the rebuilding discussion. I'm torn. On one hand, I don't think the astros are going to win as constructed and they need to worry about how best to win 3 years from now or 5 years from now. Berkman and Oswalt are some of their few assets and they will start deprecating in value quickly. There is no doubt in my mind that trading Berkman and Oswalt, if you can, would greatly increase the chance that they are competitive 5 years from now. But, winning isn't everything. Part of me would like to see Berkman and Oswalt finish off Hall of Fame careers in Astros uniforms. Especially, if we are in for some lean years with or without them, why not keep them and have something to look forward to at the ballgame. If you trade them, you also have to get it right. Unfortunately, I don't trust Wade and Smith to evaluate talent and get the right return. If they bungle it up and get a bunch of Michael Bourns and middle relievers for their franchise players, then it would be a huge set back and they would probably alienate a large portion of the fanbase. Wherever I fall on rebuilding today, I don't see a reasonable argument for them being buyers right now. It makes me severely question the judgment of the people running this team. If you add 2.5 million to the payroll in order to shore up the 5th spot in the rotation and make a run at 75 wins, then please don't tell us 2 months from now that you couldn't sign Ross Seaton because of a ~$100,000 difference. It just speaks to their misplaced priorities and their misallocation of resources. At this point, I rather them use those few million a year to go overslot at times to sign their draft pick and become stronger players for top latin american signees
Dickau -- I just don't think this move means the Astros are buyers. I don't think it's that significant. I realize technically they took on payroll...but I think the hope is that he turns into a draft pick....and that they gave up virtually nothing to bring him in.
Option #4: Wolf pitches decently, the Astros offer arbitration, Wolf accepts, and the Astros get stuck paying some decent amount of money for a pitcher that likely goes back to sucking. I don't see how the Astros end up with a pick here. If he's offered arbitration, he's the type of player that's likely to accept. He's not going to get a long-term deal elsewhere, so why not?
