[ESPN] 2011 Salary Cap projected to be as low as $50M

I also agree with this, and it's going to make it much harder for bottom feeders to rebuild, imo. Assuming no change in the mid-level free agency structure, I think the biggest change will be that the $8m-$10m players will suddenly turn into MLE types.

Essentially, you'll have your group of max players, like always, but then you'll see more of a drop for the lower tiers. In that scenario, I think you'll see more and more not-quite-star players pull an Artest -- sign for the MLE with a contender -- and make the gap even bigger between the haves and the have nots.

 

I highly suspect that this year's cap is actually higher than it otherwise should be.

Spring reports were suggesting Cap at $55M and LuxTax at $65M, which would have put two-thirds of the league in a terrifying bind.

I don't know if they could have done this with the way the CBA defines the cap formula, but I do at least wonder if they compromised and kept this coming year's cap a little higher to give GMs a little extra time to ease into the financial crash. With over half the league already clearing space for 2010, it makes it a lot easier for teams to transition into the reality of an eroding cap/lux tax.

Evan

 

QFT. that was why i felt a lot of teams who put all the chips into the 2010 offseason are not really smart.

 

you may be right. but i think the lowering of the cap will force teams to "actually" build teams (like morey is doing right now) and being smart about it rather than just spending willy nilly and throwing cash around grabbing "stars."

 

This is a very interesting point, although these guys are not screwed at all. All they need to do is resign with their previous team and they'll get their raises as usual. If they sign with a new team, then the money would be less.

 

The knicks are still good to go in 2010. Unless you don't think they'll pay the luxury tax.

 

I completely disagree. This is going to result in is more of these salary dump deals with teams try to avoid the luxury tax. The rich will get richer and poor will get poorer.

You win in this league with Superstars. Look at the 20 years+ if you want examples.

 

i agree completely....this is where you are and what you're stuck with.

but the TMac expiring contract only has special value to teams waiting for that 2010 moment....so this strategy assumes that we're wise to the game, but other GM's/franchises are not. i think this makes the perceived value of the TMac expiring contract shrink.

 

...wow - that's a really low cap number. Teams are going to be hurting in the near future. I actually think this works in Houston's favor indirectly because they already have a decent team of role players they can resign if they want to stay a contender(rich getting richer) but also, they stand to offer more value to free agents because of the Yao effect(Chinese endorsements) and the lack of a state tax. When you consider several of these free agents will be making millions less than they anticipated originally, I think those are two very strong points to entice prospective free agents. I don't know if it necessarily gets us Lebron/Wade or possibly Bosh but I think it allows us to a little more flexibility to spend Tmac's expiring money as an attractive financial situation for free agents.

 

This actually not that bad of news for us. We were never going to have enough money to sign two big time free agents next yr and we will still have enough to get a player like Bosh if we choose to. This just keeps teams like New York from taking two players like Bosh and Lebron.