Enough with the pessimism, we WILL make the playoffs!

Yeah, let's retool, launch weak playoff runs and destroy our team's chance for any success in the near future... oh wait...

 

theres a huge difference between cheering and being for real.

i think fans are preparing themselves mentally. saying its gonna be a bad year so that when it is a bad year they arent as let down.

 

Our Defense is going to suffer, many of you don't realize ever since Yao's been in the league with the Rockets, we have been top 3-4 teams in Opp FG% allowed. Throughout those 7 years, the whole roster has changed, except for 1 person.

Our interior D is going to get shredded up, I do not think Scola or Dave is going to control our interior D. I hope I am wrong.

 

howbout our defensive specialist hayes and possibly dorsey?

 

It will take a collective effort from our front line to control the interior. Gang rebounding and movement to double team or block out cutters.

 

82 games with them in the middle.......

Dorsey had a great summer but he averaged way too many PF. I highly doubt we will see a lot of minutes with him and if he does get a lot of minutes, it will mean Scola/Landry/Hayes or the new center guy is hurt.

I love Hayes but has 0 shot blocking skills, he can do a decent job for 10-15 minutes but I am having a hard time seeing him playing 32 minutes every game and expecting him to man the middle.

Defense is what we been living on for several years, but I think we are going to take a hit in that category next year. We are soft in the middle and it won't change unless our rookie 28 year old center becomes a beast, adjusts to the NBA game (avoid touch fouls).

 

I personally feel all of us could take either direction...we're solid enough to make the playoffs, yet we have a team that seems to have potential to be completely bottom tier.

However, one must always keep the faith. I fully believe that with everyone dogging us allllll offseason long (including ALL OF YOU on this site) have completely thrown faith out the window. Mind you, I understand we suffered heavy, heavy loses throughout the past year, but we still have a young, quick, talented squad, and with Tmac seemingly getting healty, and who knows about Yao, put a little faith in DM and Adelman, and let's all sit on our hands for a little while and not jump to conclusions until we see the boys in red step out onto the hardwood the first week of the season....then we can all fairly begin to pass judgement..

Keep the hope alive...Rockets 2010

 

i also forgot to add...

Yao had a much larger impact on team defense. He isn't a Dream but statistically Dream in his prime years had a 98-99 Defensive Rating, Yao has ranged from 98-101.

When Yao is off the court, teams score an average of 5.4 more points

Effective FG% allowed when Yao is on the court is 46%.9 compared to 49..9% when he is off the court.

I expect it to be worse next year because teams will know we are soft in the middle.

 

I guess Chuck Hayes should be starting for 30+ teams with his defensive powers. He is a good role player, he isn't starting material and he isn't a prime Ben Wallace.

Last year we were not soft in the middle, i don't know how you define soft in the middle when statistically our defense was much better with Yao in the middle. Or do you define soft based on perception of Yao?

Don't get me wrong Chuck is a good defensive player but overall I do not think he will have a bigger impact on the defensive end than Yao, especially over 82 games.

 

Competition:

The entire Jazz team was injured last year. It is possible for it happen again, but how much so. Combine that with the fact that despite that, their depth allowed them to make the playoffs and they were playing decently until their careening off a cliff in April, you cannot count them out.

Were the Hornets bad? Yes. Do they have a bunch a scrubs? Yes. Did they have a lot of injuries? Yes. Did Paul and West still have them within a few games of the SW division title and the 3 seed (I'm referring to the few end of the year games against the Mavs, Spurs & Rockets)? Yes. Now they finally have a Center who can and will consistently play some sort of defense, and you cannot count them out of possibly getting home-court, no matter what other deficiencies they may have.

The Suns are getting back to what they do best, run the ball. They probably need a few more 3 pt shooters to be truly effective, but as efficient as Nash can be with Amare again getting the ball as much as he likes, they will put up points. Not to mention, no matter how horrible their defense is, you still will need ~107-110 pts to beat them because of their offense. Sure it probably is not good enough to get a top 3 seed or win the Finals, but to get the playoffs being deadly efficient on offense and forcing other teams to score that many points can be effective. I realize there was thread discussing last playoff spots and their off efficiency vs. def. efficiency, and we will probably see that this whole year as the Rockets & Suns likely battle for a the last playoff spot.

Experience:

Especially at point guard, with Brooks starting the season at PG, and Lowry gaining more experience as his backup. I think both will be solid and will excel in Adelman's offense and transition game. The team should already know by now how to play without Yao and McGrady, so we're not exactly in foreign territory here. We should see a better version of Landry as well. Everyone else are already experienced vets for the most part that know what it takes to win short-handed. [/quote]

Your example given above was 1 game in which we also had Ron Artest, as a no.1 option requiring some defensive attention, namely their best defender. Even the 4 games against the Lakers, we did blow them out in 2 but we were also blown out twice. People keep forgetting this fact. And those two battles won, required Superstar, yes superstar, performances from Aaron Brooks and Luis Scola neither of whom had provided superstar-like performances in the playoffs or really that season.

Do you really expect them to put out those type of performances most of the year? That is what it takes to win 45+ games, sore than just good, smart team effort and a good system. I think Brooks can be a decent starting PG, but I'm not sure of a consistent No.1 option on a playoff team. Scola has shown glimpses, but he also has a finesse style of offensive game and as such still goes through stretches that he misses shots in the paint we cannot afford for him to miss. Landry is a player we waited to be consistent all of last year, and he has not happened yet. The problem is that his weaknesses (size, defense, power post game) don't work against some teams, so it will be difficult for him to be more than the lot some games, little some games player he is.

Defense:

Battier will likely be as good as last year, and while Ariza is an extremely good defender, both have trouble with size to some extent on the wing. Brooks still has a few things to learn on defending PG's. He as decent last year, but not great. Lowry seems to be a good defender, but how much playing time will he get? If you Brooks is going to our No. 1 option on our team, you have to expect him to play 37-41 min/game, and while it is possible to play both Lowry/AB, you are then at a great size disadvantage and would have to sit either Ariza or Battier weakening the defense again.

Even with good wing defense, our front-court defense will be very weak.

First, we have no shot blocker. Our best shot blocker will be Dorsey if he even gets minutes. Teams will not have to fear going to the basket on us, and despite our good wing defense, it is still very possible for decent players on opposing teams to get to the second level. We may get a few charges, but you really want your help defense in the middle to be determined by charges. Also, who other Hayes has really shown to be able to effectively guard the pick-and-roll and sadly while he is good at showing, his size still limits the effectiveness he has to prevent a pass to the rolling player.

Second, Scola & Landry still get into foul trouble at times. Scola has been fairly good about it recently, but Landry is questionable at times. Hayes as good as he is, does not get calls for him some games making him unpredictable, and Dorsey will have foul trouble initially likely. This was the problem against the Lakers. When the calls go against Hayes, we have no answers in the post. Our post defense depends right now completely on how the refs treat Hayes, and I'm not so sure I'm comfortable with that.

Third, defensive rebounding is huge for defense. We have only 1 really good rebounder in the blocks, Hayes and he is still undersized. Landry and Scola are decent rebounders, but so much is due to position as it is to hustle, smarts, and athleticism. While Yao was not a natural rebounder, he still decent at boxing out, clearing out at least 1-2 players from getting an offensive rebound, and averaged nearly 10 rebounds a game, most defensive. I would not be surprised to be in the negative in rebounds consistently this year, and no matter how good your defense is, with more opposing possessions means more points allowed.

Fourth, if we are going to play faster, up-tempo games, you are taking away from your set defense. Our players hustle and can get up the court well, but their is a reason that defense is forgotten and ignored in track-meet games...you have to react more, and given the pace it is much harder to do that unless you have great athleticism. Also, in fast-tempo games, shot blockers are even more important because it helps to disrupt what would be easy hoops due to the tempo and difficulty in reacting that quickly.

I'm not saying we will be horrible defensively next year, but we will not be as well off as you think we will.

Depth & Versatility:

Ariza was a 31.9% 3 pt shooter last year. Yes, it was the only year he shot more than 15 3 pts the entire year, but it is not like he is already a pure shooter who needs to add range. It is possible that could improve, but how much? He has also only started 51 games in 4 years, played no more than 24 minutes a game in any of those years, and has missed plenty of games the 3 years before last years run with the Lakers, including a broken foot. Sure those may have been flukes, but given our injury luck, how much faith do you have?

Anderson is unknown quantity. We are not sure how well he will fit in the system, fit with the team, fit in in the NBA. Yes, his shooting can add some versatility, but is it true NBA range 3-pt shooting or is it 18-21 ft jumpers? Also, as much his assets on offense may help, we do not know how effectively he will be on defense until we see him.

Mentality:

No, they will not have a woe is me attitude. But Brooks will now have a "I have to carry this team attitude" along with Battier & Scola. I have faith that Scola and Battier can use that for good, not sure how much that will improve their play and effectiveness though, but Brooks is a wildcard. He was an excellent leader in college and has been very good at the end of last year, but now being our "premiere" backcourt scorer at the moment may decrease his effectiveness.

Also, other teams will have a different mindset against us now. Last year, you prepared against the Rockets by concentrating on Yao & Artest, so when they did not play or did not play well, it was often difficult for other teams to adjust. Yet, in the Lakers series how can you not say the Lakers adjusted in game 5 & 7? They still had weakness in their supporting cast we were able to exploit with Brooks, but now with the rest of the NBA having time to sit and truly prepare for our team, you cannot discount the effect of not having a true superstar on the team they have to negate and worry about.

The T-mac Factor:

How long will it take Tracy to not just play in an NBA game, but play extended minutes, and even be able to do the things he was able to do? Yes, he had a minimal surgery that he should recover from, but expecting him to be able to break down people off the dribble like he used to do, and do that say in the first month or 2 of getting back on the court is folly. Don't forget his jump-shot is also all about elevation and requires good use of his knee as well, so it is unknown how long it will take for him to get his rhythm back.

This is all assuming he has his head on straight this year as well. Say he does start coming back 1 month or 2 months in, it would take time for the team to re-gel and effectively play off each other.

Other than 4 games at the beginning of the 2006-07 season, I cannot remember Tracy playing within Adelman's system. Will he now, especially when he is just coming off the surgery and all this rehab?

Combine all this with the fact that everyone on the team and Tracy knows the team is actively shopping him, and he may be gone at any time if the right deal comes. Especially, if the Rockets get into a huge hole early in the season, that could weigh over the team.

Schedule:

By the way, have you seen the Rockets schedule. I've mentioned this before, but I honestly do not see 15 wins before January, and losing does not generally ease the team gelling and the newer players gaining confidence in their roles and ease into the NBA or team.

 

We will make the playoffs. The difference between the 7-8 seed and the bottom of the lottery is not that great as far as players go.

 

This team is/was built to compete and win.

 

I agree that we have to support the team no matter who is on the floor. We are over the cap as it is and if we sign both our rookies we will have more players than roster spots, so something is going to give. We all know the Rockets aren't done dealing yet this summer.

Go to the Toyo, watch on tv or listen on the radio but support the team because the team get motivation from the us.

 

I don't understand the fascination with making the playoffs. It's just postponing the inevitable ... rebuilding. There is no chance for a championship as things stand and that is all that matters ... there is no Hakeem to put your hope on. I'm tired of the lack of or slow progress the team is in year after year because of health and because getting to the playoffs is viewed as some sort of accomplshment. But but but we made it ...

Yes the draft is a luck of the draw but you stand a greater chance of getting a good player higher in the draft than lower. Intead of getting a 5'11 scoring guard we could get a 6'4 point guard.

 

True and REAL ROCKET's FANS always have hope in their team!!
The funny thing is that this team will play great team basketball and will have chemistry unlike any other team in the league. They will play so well that their spiritual effect will help heal Yao &
Tracy Mc G.
I am upbeat about our chances this upcoming season because I am a rockets fan!!!! Are you one also?

 

yeah but it's completely blind faith considering we don't even know the full roster will be before the season starts.

at least BrooksBall made his famous thread in the middle of the season.

 

why do people want to be in teh lottery?

even if tracy never returns, this lineup is NOT going to be a bottom feeder or have a record eligible for a top 5 pick (unless you're praying to the gods and win the lottery). unless you get john wall, the buzz of next year's draft is like this year: no franchise players.

might as well go to the playoffs, showcase these players at the highest stage, and tell the all-stars in the upcoming 2010 free agency, "hey, we got some good pieces here, come join us."

 

you're better suited turning the tides through trades. we've accumulated pieces to do that. right now, morey is waiting on that trade.

lakers? boston? denver? and more, these teams got way better through trades.

there is a reason teams go to the lottery EVERY YEAR are the same teams primarily: unless you get a franchise player, rarely do those picks turn a franchise around.