gahhh the update to this can't come earlier! Can't wait to see the percentages now with some of the upsets that happened today.
Latest NBA results used: Apr 10 Western Conference Average Wins Code: Team Wins ==== ==== Lakers 64.7 Nuggets 54.3 Blazers 53.4 Rockets 53.1 Spurs 53.1 Mavericks 49.8 Hornets 49.3 Jazz 48.9 Western Conference Wins (Percent) Code: Team 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 ==== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== Lakers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.8 28.1 70.1 Nuggets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.6 62.8 31.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Blazers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 10.2 42.1 47.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Rockets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 16.9 52.1 31.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Spurs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.4 18.9 44.9 33.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Mavericks 0.0 5.1 31.9 45.4 17.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Hornets 0.0 17.9 45.4 30.4 6.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Jazz 1.6 20.5 61.0 16.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Western Conference Placement (Percent) Code: Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th out ==== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== Lakers 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Nuggets 0.0 75.3 20.7 2.3 1.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Blazers 0.0 2.7 22.3 48.3 26.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Rockets 0.0 21.6 21.0 28.8 28.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Spurs 0.0 0.3 36.1 20.6 42.6 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 Mavericks 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 41.8 27.7 30.4 0.0 Hornets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 33.2 25.3 41.0 0.0 Jazz 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 24.3 47.1 28.6 0.0 Western Conference Division Title (Percent) Code: Team Northwest Title Percent ==== ====================== Nuggets 96.0 Blazers 4.0 Jazz 0.0 Team Pacific Title Percent ==== ====================== Lakers 100.0 Team Southwest Title Percent ==== ====================== Rockets 51.5 Spurs 48.5 Mavericks 0.0 Hornets 0.0 Western Conference Playoff Advancement (Percent) Code: Team To 1st To 2nd To Conf To Fnls Champs ==== ======= ======= ======= ======= ======= Lakers 100.0 87.5 67.9 54.8 24.0 Nuggets 100.0 62.6 33.6 10.1 1.6 Blazers 100.0 62.1 24.8 12.3 2.6 Rockets 100.0 57.2 24.4 9.5 1.7 Spurs 100.0 49.3 18.0 6.2 0.9 Mavericks 100.0 26.5 9.7 2.0 0.2 Hornets 100.0 23.1 8.1 1.6 0.1 Jazz 100.0 31.8 13.6 3.4 0.5 Eastern Conference Average Wins Code: Team Wins ==== ==== Cavaliers 66.2 Celtics 62.0 Magic 60.2 Hawks 47.3 Heat 42.7 76ers 41.0 Bulls 40.7 Pistons 40.4 Eastern Conference Wins (Percent) Code: Team 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 ==== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== Cavaliers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 14.4 43.9 40.4 Celtics 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 23.4 52.8 22.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Magic 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5 13.9 43.0 41.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Hawks 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.5 45.3 43.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Heat 0.0 0.0 7.2 33.4 44.9 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 76ers 0.0 28.2 47.6 21.7 2.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Bulls 6.3 31.4 44.9 17.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Pistons 14.4 41.0 35.0 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Eastern Conference Placement (Percent) Code: Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th out ==== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== Cavaliers 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Celtics 0.0 99.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Magic 0.0 0.5 99.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Hawks 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Heat 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 88.6 9.8 1.5 0.1 0.0 76ers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.4 57.9 31.2 6.5 0.0 Bulls 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 21.7 39.2 38.1 0.0 Pistons 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.0 10.6 28.0 55.3 0.0 Eastern Conference Division Title (Percent) Code: Team Southeast Title Percent ==== ====================== Magic 100.0 Hawks 0.0 Heat 0.0 Team Atlantic Title Percent ==== ====================== Celtics 100.0 76ers 0.0 Team Central Title Percent ==== ====================== Cavaliers 100.0 Bulls 0.0 Pistons 0.0 Eastern Conference Playoff Advancement (Percent) Code: Team To 1st To 2nd To Conf To Fnls Champs ==== ======= ======= ======= ======= ======= Cavaliers 100.0 96.7 90.9 57.2 42.0 Celtics 100.0 95.4 61.8 27.9 18.1 Magic 100.0 92.7 37.3 14.0 8.1 Hawks 100.0 66.9 6.1 0.7 0.1 Heat 100.0 30.1 1.7 0.1 0.0 76ers 100.0 7.8 0.6 0.0 0.0 Bulls 100.0 4.8 0.8 0.1 0.0 Pistons 100.0 5.7 0.9 0.0 0.0 ======================================== Rockets Home Court Playoff Matchups By Round (Percent) Code: Team 1st 2nd Conf Final ==== ===== ===== ===== ===== Blazers 18.6 0.7 3.1 0.0 Hornets 17.4 3.9 0.7 0.0 Jazz 14.3 6.6 1.1 0.0 Mavericks 11.2 3.6 1.0 0.0 Spurs 8.7 0.1 1.5 0.0 Nuggets 1.3 8.5 0.1 0.0 Hawks 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 Heat 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Bulls 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 76ers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Pistons 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Rockets Away Playoff Matchups By Round (Percent) Code: Team 1st 2nd Conf Final ==== ===== ===== ===== ===== Blazers 15.9 0.4 1.4 0.0 Spurs 12.2 0.0 1.5 0.0 Nuggets 0.5 8.8 2.7 0.0 Lakers 0.0 24.8 11.3 0.0 Cavaliers 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.4 Celtics 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.7 Magic 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4 Rockets Combined Playoff Matchups By Round (Percent) Code: Team 1st 2nd Conf Final ==== ===== ===== ===== ===== Blazers 34.4 1.0 4.6 0.0 Spurs 21.0 0.1 3.0 0.0 Hornets 17.4 3.9 0.7 0.0 Jazz 14.3 6.6 1.1 0.0 Mavericks 11.2 3.6 1.0 0.0 Nuggets 1.8 17.3 2.8 0.0 Lakers 0.0 24.8 11.3 0.0 Cavaliers 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.4 Celtics 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.7 Magic 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4 Hawks 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 Heat 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 76ers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Bulls 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Pistons 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Rockets Home Court Advantage By Round Code: Round Percent ===== ======= First 71.4 Second 23.2 Conf 7.5 Finals 0.1 ================================ The Rockets didn't play very well without Yao against a Warrior team that only dressed seven. We still got the win but most numbers actually didn't change much The numbers would have improved dramatically had the Blazers or Spurs lost, but each of them pulled out tough wins. Our home court advantage percentage dropped marginally to 71%. We have almost an equal chance of getting anything from the second to fifth seed and still roughly a 50% chance at getting the division. Let's hope the Blazers manage to lose tonight (quite unlikely though) to help solidify our chances. Enjoy!
You keep updating, but in order for us to judge your program, we should take a look at the final results, and compare them to what your FIRST projection was... DD
DaDakota - he said this was a SIMULATOR and not a FORECASTER, hence the reason for the updates. As each parameter changes, the outcome should change.
It is not a "projection." It gives you the probabilities. Sort of like the weather report. The closer you get to the day, the more accurate the forecast is. This is the kind of things Vegas uses to determine the odds.
It's not even a projection. He gives you the probabilities of each event happening. The probability that we earn 2nd place is like 20%. Its based on the information we already know (odds of winning a game against a certain team, etc). Its not a "this is definitely going to happen" type of thing at all.
So I'm getting confused about a projection vs probability because in my mind I am equating the two. For example, the weather forecast is a projection of the week's weather conditions but when they say 20% chance of rain isn't that still a probability of an event occuring?
These are probabilities that can be used as an aid to project the final standings. Most of the standings guessing on this board is of the finger-in-the-wind, reading tea leaves variety. Some people use hard data to base their guesses on, and that's essentially what this system is. There's no way a simulator could guess Landy would get shot or the Spurs would lose Ginobili. It does give some reasonable ideas of how likely certain scenarios are, and that can be useful for all of the crackpot speculation we all engage in. I read Hollinger's stuff daily, but I like that this is Rocket-centric.
Its semantics, either way. The way DD was using the term it was like... whichever probability is the highest is the "prediction", and because the probabilities change every day, he said it was better to just compare it with the 1st prediction and see if that one holds true. Thats not the case, its just whatever the probability is for that day is the probability that day. The more games we play the more it changes untill we're locked into wherever we are.
Warriors are beating the Jazz 85 - 71 in the end of the third. If the Jazz lose this game, they're almost guaranteed 8th seed.
Think of it this way. Statistically if you flip a coin it should be heads 50% of the time and tails 50% of the time. Therefore calculating the odds for 10 flips would show 5 of heads and 5 of tails. However what would happen to the probabilities if the first 3 are heads? Obviously they would shift having a higher probability of ending up with more heads than tails. That doesn't mean the original probabilities were wrong, just that either some outside influence occured (injuries) or something statistically unlikely happened (j*zz losing to Minnesota)
Not necessarily. The Jazz own the tiebreaker with New Orleans. If they just go 1-1 in their final 2 games and New Orleans loses all three of their games(which is possible as they are playing dallas, @houston, and @SA), the Jazz would be the 7th seed and we could very well be matching up with them again if we win out.
Blazers tied with Rockets again. Rockets need to keep wining to keep Blazers on the 4th seed. So Blazers can meet with Lakers on the 2nd round and send Lakers home for good.
If the Jazz can lose to the Warriors at home, they are capable of losing to LA on the road with no Kobe IMO.
Latest NBA results used: Apr 11 Western Conference Average Wins Code: Team Wins ==== ==== Lakers 64.7 Nuggets 54.3 Blazers 53.6 Rockets 53.1 Spurs 53.1 Mavericks 49.8 Hornets 49.2 Jazz 48.1 Western Conference Wins (Percent) Code: Team 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 ==== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== Lakers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.8 27.4 70.8 Nuggets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.7 63.0 31.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Blazers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.9 37.2 59.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Rockets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 16.8 51.9 31.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Spurs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.4 18.8 44.9 33.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Mavericks 0.0 4.8 31.6 46.2 17.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Hornets 0.0 18.3 45.0 30.5 6.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Jazz 8.4 71.1 20.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Western Conference Placement (Percent) Code: Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th out ==== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== Lakers 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Nuggets 0.0 74.7 20.3 2.8 2.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Blazers 0.0 3.5 27.5 49.9 19.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Rockets 0.0 21.7 18.7 26.6 33.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Spurs 0.0 0.1 33.4 20.7 45.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 Mavericks 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 48.0 41.7 10.3 0.0 Hornets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 47.9 28.7 22.9 0.0 Jazz 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.7 29.6 66.7 0.0 Western Conference Division Title (Percent) Code: Team Northwest Title Percent ==== ====================== Nuggets 94.9 Blazers 5.1 Jazz 0.0 Team Pacific Title Percent ==== ====================== Lakers 100.0 Team Southwest Title Percent ==== ====================== Rockets 51.4 Spurs 48.6 Mavericks 0.0 Hornets 0.0 Western Conference Playoff Advancement (Percent) Code: Team To 1st To 2nd To Conf To Fnls Champs ==== ======= ======= ======= ======= ======= Lakers 100.0 86.6 67.0 54.2 23.8 Nuggets 100.0 64.7 34.1 10.2 1.6 Blazers 100.0 64.6 27.9 13.8 3.0 Rockets 100.0 56.6 24.0 9.4 1.7 Spurs 100.0 48.7 17.4 6.0 0.9 Mavericks 100.0 30.6 11.4 2.2 0.2 Hornets 100.0 26.1 9.3 1.7 0.2 Jazz 100.0 22.2 8.8 2.5 0.3 Eastern Conference Average Wins Code: Team Wins ==== ==== Cavaliers 66.2 Celtics 62.0 Magic 59.5 Hawks 47.3 Heat 42.7 Bulls 41.1 76ers 41.0 Pistons 40.0 Eastern Conference Wins (Percent) Code: Team 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 ==== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== Cavaliers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4 14.2 43.9 40.5 Celtics 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 23.2 52.8 22.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Magic 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.2 38.5 56.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Hawks 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.6 45.0 43.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Heat 0.0 0.0 7.0 33.8 44.6 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Bulls 0.0 17.5 54.5 28.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 76ers 0.0 28.4 47.7 21.3 2.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Pistons 24.3 53.2 22.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Eastern Conference Placement (Percent) Code: Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th out ==== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== Cavaliers 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Celtics 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Magic 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Hawks 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Heat 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 94.9 4.3 0.8 0.0 0.0 Bulls 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6 31.2 47.4 19.8 0.0 76ers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.2 58.1 34.1 4.6 0.0 Pistons 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 6.4 17.6 75.6 0.0 Eastern Conference Division Title (Percent) Code: Team Southeast Title Percent ==== ====================== Magic 100.0 Hawks 0.0 Heat 0.0 Team Atlantic Title Percent ==== ====================== Celtics 100.0 76ers 0.0 Team Central Title Percent ==== ====================== Cavaliers 100.0 Bulls 0.0 Pistons 0.0 Eastern Conference Playoff Advancement (Percent) Code: Team To 1st To 2nd To Conf To Fnls Champs ==== ======= ======= ======= ======= ======= Cavaliers 100.0 96.7 91.1 57.9 42.5 Celtics 100.0 95.4 63.2 28.2 18.5 Magic 100.0 92.1 35.7 12.9 7.3 Hawks 100.0 66.6 5.9 0.6 0.1 Heat 100.0 32.1 1.8 0.1 0.0 Bulls 100.0 5.6 0.6 0.0 0.0 76ers 100.0 7.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 Pistons 100.0 3.7 1.0 0.1 0.0 ======================================== Rockets Home Court Playoff Matchups By Round (Percent) Code: Team 1st 2nd Conf Final ==== ===== ===== ===== ===== Mavericks 16.2 4.3 1.1 0.0 Hornets 15.5 4.2 0.8 0.0 Blazers 13.9 0.8 3.0 0.0 Spurs 10.8 0.0 1.4 0.0 Jazz 8.9 4.9 0.9 0.0 Nuggets 1.7 8.8 0.1 0.0 Hawks 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 Heat 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 76ers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Bulls 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Pistons 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Rockets Away Playoff Matchups By Round (Percent) Code: Team 1st 2nd Conf Final ==== ===== ===== ===== ===== Blazers 17.3 0.5 1.9 0.0 Spurs 15.1 0.0 1.3 0.0 Nuggets 0.7 7.8 2.7 0.0 Lakers 0.0 25.3 10.8 0.0 Cavaliers 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.4 Celtics 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.6 Magic 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 Rockets Combined Playoff Matchups By Round (Percent) Code: Team 1st 2nd Conf Final ==== ===== ===== ===== ===== Blazers 31.2 1.3 4.9 0.0 Spurs 25.8 0.0 2.8 0.0 Mavericks 16.2 4.3 1.1 0.0 Hornets 15.5 4.2 0.8 0.0 Jazz 8.9 4.9 0.9 0.0 Nuggets 2.3 16.6 2.8 0.0 Lakers 0.0 25.3 10.8 0.0 Cavaliers 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.4 Celtics 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.6 Magic 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 Hawks 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 Heat 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 76ers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Bulls 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Pistons 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Rockets Home Court Advantage By Round Code: Round Percent ===== ======= First 67.0 Second 23.0 Conf 7.3 Finals 0.1 ================================= The Blazers keep winning and the Jazz keep losing. As a result, we're much less likely to meet the Jazz in the first round. Our probability of getting third have gone down marginally and our probability of getting fifth went up marginally. Enjoy!
Thanks bigbigred! If Yao miss both games, I predict Rockets will win the Hornets game but lose to Dallas. Hope 53 wins can still give us homecourt advantage!
I understand the probabilities change, but in order to guage the quality of the program, we should view the first probabilty deduction to see how accurate it was..... DD
BBR, just a question: Does your algorithm account for (1) injuries and (2) motivation at the end. What I am getting at is that some teams (Lakers) might rest their stars at the last games because the games are meaningless. Some teams might do it for precautionary reasons (Yao). Some scrub teams might want to tank for better lotto positions. Those factors affect the probabilities.
