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End of Season Simulator by BigBigRed

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by ScriboErgoSum, Mar 30, 2009.

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  1. rocketman101

    rocketman101 Member

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    are you really this sensative? stating my opinion (which btw practically the entire country would agree with me) and being a rockets fan for 28 years of my life , and you want me to goto lakersground because you are that sensative? im not allowed to speak the truth about you because it would come across as being rude. so you dont want to read any opinions on this board unless they are basically full of **** saying the rockets will beat the lakers and win the championship? wow just wow, i mean nearly all the guys i thought were straight in high school ended up coming out of the closet at 30 but man, this board surpasses even that.
     
  2. rocketman101

    rocketman101 Member

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    wrong again. i saw them lose to portland..and lose in dallas, and lose in lakers home, and lose to chicago, yes even chicago, oh wait the bucks also. yes i saw the win over the celtics..not trolling, not lame, just stating my opinion, i meant to say they dont win on the road as a championship team should. theres no killer or closer on this team like a lebron or kobe or wade..but nevermind,i didnt realize everyone in this board is more sensative than girls ive talked to. sheesh. been lurking this board for 10 years, yes 10, and still everyone is the same, unless you have rose colored glassed and say "we are the best team in the league" you get blasted .literally blasted, i mean i would expect that from the people that shot landry to react that way
     
  3. ccada

    ccada Member

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    It's not a matter of sensitivity, and although objectivity is important, this is a Rockets fan forum. Nobody's crowning the Rockets the Western Conference Champs just yet, but I don't think the entire country, much less anyone in this forum would agree that the Lakers would sweep the Rockets in 4 games.
     
  4. The_Yoyo

    The_Yoyo Member

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    really? when was this we've only played them once in dallas this year and beat them pretty well. please do tell
     
  5. boondoggle

    boondoggle Member

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    I just want to point out that the Lakers play their last game the night before Cleveland does, so unless the Cavs lose one of their next three, LA won't be tanking against the Jazz (my understanding is LA owns the tie-break).
     
  6. ScriboErgoSum

    ScriboErgoSum Member
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    The Lakers own the tie break because the swept the Cavs 2-0. The loss in Cleveland is the only home loss of the year for the Cavs.

    Right now the Cavs have a Magic Number of 4 to clinch best record. The Lakers have a Magic Number of 5. Both teams have some tough games coming up. I think this will still be up in the air when the Lakers host the Jazz, and that will provide plenty of incentive for the Lakers to pound the Jazz and hope for the best the next night when the Cavs host the 76ers.
     
  7. RocketDoc

    RocketDoc Member

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    That is fantastic news. I know that I am extrodinarily biased in this regard, but has there ever been a less likable team than Utah. With the exception of Williams and Brewer, I just don't think there is one player on that team you can like.

    And for the record, as a Rockets fan, I HATE Brewer and Williams...just not as much as ...oh...say...Okur. I 'get red' (no pun intended) in the face everytime I even think of that guy.
     
  8. Fyreball

    Fyreball Member

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    The loss in Portland was a fluke that, 10 of out 10 times, would never happen again. But ok, I will definitely give you that one. The Rockets have NOT lost to the Mavs on the road this year. Their one loss was a home loss when we were without Yao Ming. The Chicago loss, again, 10 out of 10 times would never happen again, and that's the game that really brought this team to a new level...i.e. closing out games. That Bucks game was possibly the lowest moment in Tracy McGrady's career as a Houston Rocket, and I don't think ANYBODY feels like THIS TEAM, WITH THESE PLAYERS would ever lose that game. To claim that people on this board are sensitive when you flat out say that this team can't win on the road is wrong. I too have been lurking since the days this board was started, and while most fans on here are optimists, I feel like as a whole, fans on here are incredibly realistic and objective when talking about the Rockets. It's ok to be pessimistic, but don't confuse hyperbole (this team NEVER wins on the road) with realism.
     
  9. agentkirb87

    agentkirb87 Member

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    Houston is actually a pretty good road team considering the chemistry issues we've had. We're #2 in the west behind LA in road wins against good playoff teams (1-8 in the west and 1-4 in the east). We've beaten Dallas, New Orleans (twice I wanna say, but at least once), Denver, San Antonio, Boston and Orlando. Losses include one in San Antonio, maybe one in New Orleans, 2 against LA, 2 against Utah, 1 against Denver (I think) the Cavs and the one against Portland that should've been a victory. Thats an above about a .500 record against good teams on the road. The league average in that category is well under .500, even if we are just considering the good teams. So I don't think you can say we are a bad road team.
     
  10. agentkirb87

    agentkirb87 Member

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    And to add on to my previous post (can't edit). Sure we lost to bad teams like Washington and Toronto and Chicago on the road. But that was in that period when Artest and Tmac were in and out with injuries and we couldn't beat anyone. And in any case, I think that beating good teams on the road consistently means more than losing to bad teams on the road in a fashion that we can attribute to chemistry issues and injuries.
     
  11. RocketDoc

    RocketDoc Member

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    I mentioned this on one of the other threads, but it warrants mentioning here.

    Since the death of TMac, we have only lost to one non-playoff team. And it was Phoenix. And they forgot how old they were that night.

    Road wins, home wins, whatever. One loss to a non-playoff team over a 2 month span is pretty dang impressive considering the fact that we lost to the following teams in January and Februrary (up to the allstar break) alone:

    - Toronto
    - Atlanta
    - Philadelphia (twice)
    - New York
    - Indiana
    - Memphis
    - Milwaukee

    Point being, we are a completely different team now. It is pointless to compare us the pre-allstar break Rockets. We dont run the same plays. We dont have the same scoring options. We play different defensive sets...we are a completely different team.
     
  12. Fyreball

    Fyreball Member

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    Great post. Nobody is turning a blind eye towards the losses that we've had this year to BAD teams on the road. However, in the long run, I think it speaks much more loudly for your team when you can CONSISTENTLY beat good teams on the roads, much like the Rockets have all season long. And let's be honest here.....this Rockets team is COMPLETELY DIFFERENT from the Rockets team that lost to the Bucks a couple of months ago. The personnel, the execution, all the way down to the attitude that THIS current team demonstrates is just a vast change from that team. Players are much more comfortable in their roles, and everybody knows the reason why they are on the court at any given time. I don't think a single team can survive the revolving door rotations this team had on a nightly basis, and I think it speaks VOLUMES about the resolve and character of this team that we are fighting for (and possibly favored to win) the division crown.
     
  13. Marcus Bryant

    Marcus Bryant Member

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    BBR is a mathmatist I guess.
     
  14. BigBigRed

    BigBigRed Member

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    Latest NBA results used: Apr 9


    Western Conference Average Wins
    Code:
    Team       Wins
    ====       ====
    Lakers     65.2
    Nuggets    54.3
    Blazers    52.9
    Rockets    52.8
    Spurs      52.7
    Hornets    49.6
    Mavericks  49.4
    Jazz       49.3
    
    Western Conference Wins (Percent)
    Code:
    Team        47    48    49    50    51    52    53    54    55    56    57    58    59    60    61    62    63    64    65    66  
    ====       ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== =====
    Lakers      0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.9  14.6  49.3  35.3
    Nuggets     0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   6.0  62.6  31.4   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0
    Blazers     0.0   0.0   0.0   0.3   5.2  25.8  44.4  24.3   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0
    Rockets     0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   5.6  28.9  44.8  20.7   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0
    Spurs       0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   8.6  28.4  40.6  21.5   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0
    Hornets     0.0  11.0  34.7  36.0  15.8   2.5   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0
    Mavericks   2.0  15.4  37.5  34.5  10.6   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0
    Jazz        0.9  13.1  46.8  33.0   6.3   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0
    
    Western Conference Placement (Percent)
    Code:
    Team       1st   2nd   3rd   4th   5th   6th   7th   8th   out
    ====      ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== =====
    Lakers    100.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0
    Nuggets     0.0  82.3  15.5   1.6   0.6   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0
    Blazers     0.0   1.8  20.1  45.0  31.1   1.8   0.1   0.0   0.0
    Rockets     0.0  15.3  26.4  32.1  23.2   2.9   0.0   0.0   0.0
    Spurs       0.0   0.6  37.6  19.7  38.1   3.3   0.7   0.0   0.0
    Hornets     0.0   0.0   0.4   1.4   5.2  34.4  29.3  29.4   0.0
    Mavericks   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.6  22.2  24.0  53.2   0.0
    Jazz        0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.2  35.4  45.9  17.4   0.0
    
    Western Conference Division Title (Percent)
    Code:
    Team      Northwest Title Percent
    ====      ======================
    Nuggets    97.7
    Blazers     2.3
    Jazz        0.0
    
    Team      Pacific Title Percent
    ====      ======================
    Lakers    100.0
    
    Team      Southwest Title Percent
    ====      ======================
    Rockets    50.6
    Spurs      48.0
    Hornets     1.4
    Mavericks   0.0
    
    
    Western Conference Playoff Advancement (Percent)
    Code:
    Team       To 1st  To 2nd  To Conf To Fnls Champs
    ====       ======= ======= ======= ======= =======
    Lakers     100.0    88.1    69.8    57.4    26.7
    Nuggets    100.0    63.1    33.5     9.5     1.5
    Blazers    100.0    60.9    23.0    11.2     2.4
    Rockets    100.0    56.5    23.7     9.0     1.5
    Spurs      100.0    49.1    18.0     5.9     0.9
    Hornets    100.0    26.1     8.9     1.8     0.2
    Mavericks  100.0    21.3     7.5     1.7     0.1
    Jazz       100.0    34.9    15.6     3.5     0.4
    
    Eastern Conference Average Wins
    Code:
    Team       Wins
    ====       ====
    Cavaliers  65.9
    Celtics    61.8
    Magic      61.1
    Hawks      47.0
    Heat       42.8
    76ers      41.3
    Bulls      40.7
    Pistons    40.1
    Bobcats    36.5
    Pacers     35.8
    
    Eastern Conference Wins (Percent)
    Code:
    Team        38    39    40    41    42    43    44    45    46    47    48    49    50    51    52    53    54    55    56    57    58    59    60    61    62    63    64    65    66    67  
    ====       ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== =====
    Cavaliers   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.4   5.6  23.7  43.1  27.3
    Celtics     0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   4.7  27.5  48.6  19.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0
    Magic       0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   2.8  17.5  42.5  37.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0
    Hawks       0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   3.3  21.3  44.4  30.9   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0
    Heat        0.0   0.0   0.0   5.6  29.0  43.0  20.0   2.4   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0
    76ers       0.0   0.0  19.3  41.3  30.0   8.6   0.8   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0
    Bulls       0.0   6.4  31.1  45.1  17.5   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0
    Pistons     4.7  23.2  39.3  26.4   6.3   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0
    Bobcats    13.4   1.4   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0
    Pacers      2.9   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0
    
    Eastern Conference Placement (Percent)
    Code:
    Team       1st   2nd   3rd   4th   5th   6th   7th   8th   out
    ====      ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== =====
    Cavaliers  99.8   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0
    Celtics     0.2  85.7  14.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0
    Magic       0.0  14.1  85.9   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0
    Hawks       0.0   0.0   0.0  99.8   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0
    Heat        0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2  89.7   8.4   1.5   0.1   0.0
    76ers       0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   6.6  67.6  22.6   3.2   0.0
    Bulls       0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.6  17.4  46.8  34.8   0.3
    Pistons     0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.8   6.5  29.0  61.4   0.2
    Bobcats     0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.3  99.7
    Pacers      0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2  99.8
    
    Eastern Conference Division Title (Percent)
    Code:
    Team      Southeast Title Percent
    ====      ======================
    Magic     100.0
    Hawks       0.0
    Heat        0.0
    Bobcats     0.0
    
    Team      Atlantic Title Percent
    ====      ======================
    Celtics   100.0
    76ers       0.0
    
    Team      Central Title Percent
    ====      ======================
    Cavaliers 100.0
    Bulls       0.0
    Pistons     0.0
    Pacers      0.0
    
    
    Eastern Conference Playoff Advancement (Percent)
    Code:
    Team       To 1st  To 2nd  To Conf To Fnls Champs
    ====       ======= ======= ======= ======= =======
    Cavaliers  100.0    96.8    91.0    56.9    40.3
    Celtics    100.0    95.4    59.2    26.6    16.8
    Magic      100.0    93.2    39.9    15.6     9.0
    Hawks      100.0    66.1     5.9     0.6     0.1
    Heat       100.0    31.0     1.8     0.1     0.0
    76ers      100.0     8.5     0.7     0.1     0.0
    Bulls       99.7     4.5     0.7     0.0     0.0
    Pistons     99.8     4.4     0.8     0.0     0.0
    Bobcats      0.3     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0
    Pacers       0.2     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0
    
    ========================================

    Rockets Home Court Playoff Matchups By Round (Percent)
    Code:
    Team        1st    2nd   Conf   Final
    ====       =====  =====  =====  =====
    Blazers     22.5    0.3    2.8    0.0
    Hornets     17.3    3.9    0.7    0.0
    Jazz        16.9    6.4    1.2    0.0
    Spurs        9.4    0.3    1.4    0.0
    Mavericks    7.2    3.3    0.8    0.0
    Nuggets      0.5    6.1    0.1    0.0
    Hawks        0.0    0.0    0.0    0.1
    Heat         0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0
    76ers        0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0
    Bulls        0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0
    Pistons      0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0
    
    Rockets Away Playoff Matchups By Round (Percent)
    Code:
    Team        1st    2nd   Conf   Final
    ====       =====  =====  =====  =====
    Blazers     14.5    0.3    1.3    0.0
    Spurs       10.6    0.0    1.4    0.0
    Hornets      0.7    0.0    0.0    0.0
    Nuggets      0.5   11.7    2.5    0.0
    Jazz         0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0
    Lakers       0.0   24.2   11.6    0.0
    Cavaliers    0.0    0.0    0.0    5.0
    Celtics      0.0    0.0    0.0    2.6
    Magic        0.0    0.0    0.0    1.3
    
    Rockets Combined Playoff Matchups By Round (Percent)
    Code:
    Team        1st    2nd   Conf   Final
    ====       =====  =====  =====  =====
    Blazers     37.0    0.5    4.0    0.0
    Spurs       19.9    0.3    2.8    0.0
    Hornets     18.0    3.9    0.7    0.0
    Jazz        16.9    6.4    1.2    0.0
    Mavericks    7.2    3.3    0.8    0.0
    Nuggets      1.0   17.8    2.6    0.0
    Lakers       0.0   24.2   11.6    0.0
    Cavaliers    0.0    0.0    0.0    5.0
    Celtics      0.0    0.0    0.0    2.6
    Magic        0.0    0.0    0.0    1.3
    Hawks        0.0    0.0    0.0    0.1
    Heat         0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0
    76ers        0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0
    Bulls        0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0
    Pistons      0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0
    
    Rockets Home Court Advantage By Round
    Code:
    Round   Percent
    =====   =======
    First    73.8
    Second   20.2
    Conf      6.9
    Finals    0.1
    
    ===========================================

    First, after poorly played first half, the Rockets put the clamps down and won going away. Also, the Nuggets lost which gives us a tiny hope of capturing second (15%). We now have a 74% chance of home court advantage in the playoffs and a better than 50% chance at getting the division crown. Because of our better chances at a higher seed, we are now more likely to face teams 6 to 8 in the playoffs. Let's keep it going with a win tonight!

    Second, I added the probabilities of meeting various teams throughout the playoffs and not just the first round.

    Finally, enjoy as usual!
     
    1 person likes this.
  15. Lumix

    Lumix Member

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    Isn't the sum of percentages of all four rounds 100% (101% as you can see)?

     
  16. Cannonball

    Cannonball Member

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    No, imagine you're the Lakers. What's the chance of them having HCA in the first round? They've locked up the top seed so it's 100%. What's the chance of them having HCA in the 2nd round if they get that far? 100%. And so on.

    What's the chance of the #8 seed in the East having HCA in any round? 0%

    It all doesn't have to add up to 100.
     
    #156 Cannonball, Apr 10, 2009
    Last edited: Apr 10, 2009
  17. ccada

    ccada Member

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    Thanks again BigBig for the effort to post your stuff as often as you do. It's appreciated.
     
  18. agentkirb87

    agentkirb87 Member

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    Wow, that is a huge coincidence it adds up to 101 exactly.

    I know it says that Utah is only like a 15% chance to play us in the 1st round, but I think a lot of that depends on San Antonio winning their game against Utah, and I think Utah has a decent shot at winning that game with Ginobli out (fortunately its like the 3rd game in 4 nights for them or something).
     
  19. ccada

    ccada Member

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    Statistics never blow me away, but I am 101% sure that Okur is a sh!thead. ;)
     
  20. Lovemachine2000

    Joined:
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    mathmatist? you are a pimp indeed, or so your vocabulary suggests.
     

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