It is actually about 15% (look at the last table). The events are dependent so you can't just multiply the probabilities and sum.
I'd be extremely happy if we swap positions with the Spurs and the Blazers and Hornets swap. Extremely happy. But staying at #4 isn't shabby in the least, especially after all that happened this year.
I have an opinion. I have a right to voice it. I don't think its trolling to say that the Rockets most likely won't get the #2 seed. Just based on his simulator alone you can see the chances aren't well. I'm just being realistic here.
I've tried on the yahoo simulator to get NO down in 8th but that doesnt happen unless the Mavs beat them twice, and I just dont see it happening. I cant get a DAL/UTA/NO 6/7/8 on there without game results I just dont see happening. Several plausible scenarios have Houston matchign Utah a lot. Its just too much to ask I think for them to fall to number 8. We can thank the Hornets for stinking it up the other night against them for that. Most likely scenario I see is Portland winning out. Because they play the Lakers tough in the Rose Garden. Then they will host Denver the last night of the season and Denver's seeding will likely be secure. Portland will need that win to help with home court. Of course, if Denver wins that last game against Portland, that will basically end Houston's chance at the 2 seed.
Latest NBA results used: Apr 8 Western Conference Average Wins Code: Team Wins ==== ==== Lakers 64.9 Nuggets 54.5 Blazers 52.9 Spurs 52.7 Rockets 52.6 Hornets 49.6 Mavericks 49.4 Jazz 49.3 Western Conference Wins (Percent) Code: Team 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 ==== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== Lakers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 4.4 23.7 45.6 26.0 Nuggets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.3 47.2 40.0 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Blazers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 5.5 26.1 44.1 23.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Spurs 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 8.8 28.5 40.8 20.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Rockets 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 10.5 32.4 39.5 16.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Hornets 0.0 10.7 34.5 36.4 15.9 2.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Mavericks 2.0 15.4 37.5 34.6 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Jazz 0.9 12.8 46.8 33.4 6.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Western Conference Placement (Percent) Code: Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th out ==== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== Lakers 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Nuggets 0.0 89.2 9.4 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Blazers 0.0 1.4 22.8 45.5 28.4 1.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 Spurs 0.0 0.5 40.1 20.1 35.4 3.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 Rockets 0.0 9.0 27.2 31.5 27.1 4.8 0.4 0.0 0.0 Hornets 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.6 6.2 33.3 29.1 29.3 0.0 Mavericks 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 21.7 23.9 53.4 0.0 Jazz 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.7 35.2 45.9 17.1 0.0 Western Conference Division Title (Percent) Code: Team Northwest Title Percent ==== ====================== Nuggets 98.4 Blazers 1.6 Jazz 0.0 Team Pacific Title Percent ==== ====================== Lakers 100.0 Team Southwest Title Percent ==== ====================== Spurs 52.1 Rockets 46.1 Hornets 1.7 Mavericks 0.0 Western Conference Playoff Advancement (Percent) Code: Team To 1st To 2nd To Conf To Fnls Champs ==== ======= ======= ======= ======= ======= Lakers 100.0 87.8 69.4 56.5 25.6 Nuggets 100.0 64.3 36.4 11.2 2.0 Blazers 100.0 61.5 23.4 11.4 2.3 Spurs 100.0 49.8 18.2 5.9 0.9 Rockets 100.0 54.3 21.1 7.7 1.4 Hornets 100.0 26.1 8.8 1.9 0.2 Mavericks 100.0 21.1 7.3 1.6 0.2 Jazz 100.0 35.0 15.3 3.7 0.5 Eastern Conference Average Wins Code: Team Wins ==== ==== Cavaliers 65.9 Celtics 61.8 Magic 61.1 Hawks 47.0 Heat 42.8 76ers 41.7 Bulls 40.3 Pistons 40.1 Bobcats 36.5 Pacers 35.8 Eastern Conference Wins (Percent) Code: Team 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 ==== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== Cavaliers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 5.5 24.1 42.3 27.6 Celtics 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 4.7 28.7 47.4 18.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Magic 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.8 17.0 42.7 37.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Hawks 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.4 21.3 44.1 31.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Heat 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.7 28.9 43.2 19.9 2.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 76ers 0.0 0.0 10.6 32.0 34.8 18.0 4.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Bulls 2.8 17.3 37.2 32.9 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Pistons 4.7 23.1 38.9 27.0 6.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Bobcats 13.3 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Pacers 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Eastern Conference Placement (Percent) Code: Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th out ==== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== Cavaliers 99.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Celtics 0.2 85.1 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Magic 0.0 14.7 85.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Hawks 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Heat 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 84.1 12.9 2.7 0.1 0.0 76ers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.4 71.7 13.2 1.7 0.0 Bulls 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 9.7 42.6 45.8 1.5 Pistons 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9 5.7 41.5 50.7 0.2 Bobcats 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5 98.5 Pacers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 99.8 Eastern Conference Division Title (Percent) Code: Team Southeast Title Percent ==== ====================== Magic 100.0 Hawks 0.0 Heat 0.0 Bobcats 0.0 Team Atlantic Title Percent ==== ====================== Celtics 100.0 76ers 0.0 Team Central Title Percent ==== ====================== Cavaliers 100.0 Bulls 0.0 Pistons 0.0 Pacers 0.0 Eastern Conference Playoff Advancement (Percent) Code: Team To 1st To 2nd To Conf To Fnls Champs ==== ======= ======= ======= ======= ======= Cavaliers 100.0 97.0 91.3 56.8 40.7 Celtics 100.0 95.6 59.4 26.8 17.2 Magic 100.0 92.8 39.7 15.6 9.0 Hawks 100.0 65.8 5.7 0.6 0.1 Heat 100.0 29.6 1.6 0.1 0.0 76ers 100.0 11.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 Bulls 98.5 3.8 0.6 0.0 0.0 Pistons 99.8 4.2 0.8 0.0 0.0 Bobcats 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Pacers 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Rockets Home Court Advantage First Round Matchups Code: Team Percent ==== ======= Blazers 20.9 Jazz 15.6 Hornets 14.8 Spurs 10.1 Mavericks 5.9 Nuggets 0.3 Rockets Away (No Home Court Advantage) First Round Matchups Code: Team Percent ==== ======= Blazers 18.2 Spurs 12.6 Hornets 0.8 Nuggets 0.8 Jazz 0.0 Lakers 0.0 Rockets Combined First Round Matchups Code: Team Percent ==== ======= Blazers 39.1 Spurs 22.7 Jazz 15.6 Hornets 15.6 Mavericks 5.9 Nuggets 1.1 Lakers 0.0 Rockets Percent of First Round Home Court Advantage = 67.6 ============================================== The Rockets had the night off, but we had a few significant results. I would have liked to have seen the Spurs win to solidify our home court advantage, but at least now we have a shot at the division. Our home court advantage probability dropped from 73% to 68%, but our division hopes have gone up from 33% to 46%. There are now four clusters of teams and the Suns have been eliminated from the playoffs. 1. LA 2. Denver 3-5. Houston, Portland, San Antonio 6-8. New Orleans, Utah, Dallas Although it is possible for a team to move out of a cluster, it is unlikely as of right now. Because Houston has a good chance of ending up 4-5, we have a good chance of meeting Portland or San Antonio. If we end up in 3rd, our opponents are likely the Jazz or Hornets. Enjoy as usual!
You guys see the Yahoo Playoff ranker ? You can sort by so many factors to extrapolate out who will finish where....way COOL ! DD
**Warning, I actually posted this on a different thread last night but it seems this one has taken over as the playoff scenarios thread...so I am reposting. Let me know if this is bad etiquette...I am new*** This is my favorite part of the season (well, right behind free agency...but I am growing out of that after a few too many heartbreaks... coughstromilecoughbonzicoughsteviefranchisecough...excuse me). PLAYOFF SCENARIOS!!! The Dallas win over Utah tonight was HUGE for the Rockets tonight. If you ever want to be sick to your stomach, watch Utah play ANY other team in the NBA. They look painfully average. Then you watch them play the Rockets...it is like we jumped into the Rabbit Hole with Alice...nothing is making sense. The same team that gets blown out by 29 against the Dallas Mark Cubans OWNS us. It is a matchup nightmare that I am sure has been discussed in these forums ad nauseum...but I am new, so I dont know. But enough of that, back to SCENARIOS! Dallas mavericked the Jazz tonigt pretty hard which is great for the Rockets in a few ways: 1) Utah falls a full game back of the 6 seed. Good news for us because it looks like we might land the 3 seed. 2) We can feel better about pulling for a Utah win on Friday against the San Antonio Injured Reserves because it has less of a chance of meaning Utah climbing to the 6 seed. I mentioned this in another thread but I think it warrants repeating. Is anyone else horrified of next week??? We play NO and Dallas. I am zero scared of either of those teams...but I am mortified that wins in those games may mean vaulting Utah to a 6 seed. As much as I would love to beat them in a series (and honestly at this point my hatred for them and their fans is so deep that I may prefer a 1st round win over Utah to a championship) we need to avoid them like the plague. Landing the 3 seed needs to be the Rockets primary agenda and the primary hope for Rockets fans everywhere. It gives the Lakers 2 whole rounds to tear a Kobe Bryant ACL or retear a Bynum MCL (oh yeah, he is playing this week...crap) or at least convince Pau Gasol to shave and stop looking so homeless. Are there families of rodents living in his hair? Cuz to me it looks like a place rodents might live. The second hope for every Rockets fan needs to be Utah slipping to 8. This is good because there is no way they are beating the Lakers in a series AND it puts the Lakers in a battle with one of the most physical teams in the league. Having Matt Harpring on the court increases the chance of a broken bone occuring at any given point by 75%...that is one of Daryl Morey's stats...for real...ok not for real. This begs the question...who the heck do we root for on Friday night; Jazz or Spurs? Spurs win...maybe we dont get the 3 seed...spurs lose...maybe we get the 3 seed...and play Utah. And from there; At what point is semi-on-purpose-losing a bad thing? I know this is morally-reprehensible-taboo-1917-Chicago-Whitesox business...but if losing to NO or Dal on purpose keeps Utah in the 8 seed and we can retain the 3 seed... The lighter side of losing those games on purpose is that should we decide to go ahead and tank those games, the fans will be treated to a healthy dose of Chuck Wagon free throws (ask me about my view on this sometime) and James White's Turbo impression (ask me about James White sometime). RocketDoc
For some reason the simulator has Utah with the highest chance of nailing the 7th seed. If Dallas can win 1 or 2 of the games against New Orleans, they could easily vault into 6th because right now they are tied with Utah. Or if New Orleans can win both, that would catapult them up a few games on Utah. I think Utah getting 7th depends on LA still being mathematically alive in the home court in the finals race. Which... all it takes is a random loss by Cleveland. I don't think we should tank to avoid Utah. We play who we play. You don't miss the chance to win the division for the 1st time in a decade. Having said that, I don't think there is anything wrong with hoping the Jazz win or lose and avoid us. I think I'm rooting for the Spurs here, and we can let the Hornets beat the Spurs and give us the division title.
Seems like if we get the 3rd, we might play Dallas....not that I'm scared of them but they're getting healthy and playing some good ball....If we finish 4th, we'd probably play SA. But seems like our chances of playing the Blazers are diminishing.....
Two great points here. That LAL-Utah game at the end of the season could have some important implications for us. Let's hope the Lebrons don't lay too many more stinkers. (Seriously? Down 40? To Orlando?! The same Orlando that we waved the figurative Deke finger at the other night?!?...amazing...and they are the best team in the NBA?) and that the Lake Show takes care of business too. And you are absolutely right about the division title. That is big time. A great step and a great statement. And you have to put a value on taking a sizable winning streak into the playoffs. I really reaaaally just want to play Portland or NO. I need it. I have enough stress in my life. I feel like my heart could better handle those series because I don't particularly hate any players on either of those teams (though I could see myself hating Rudy Fernandez). Playing Utah, Dallas, or San Antonio would be bad for my health (unless of course we swept the series with 20 pt victories in every game). I hate at least half of the players on all 3 of those rosters (and in the case of the Jazz, every player, coach, and administrator to ever be associated with their franchise). I would also like to give Greg Oden a chance to recover from Yao's posterization of him in the last matchup. Yes, I just said 'Yao' and 'posterization' in the same sentance...and it was not Yao being posterized but doing the posterizing...amazing. I really think that play alone probably decreased the Oden potential by 3 or 4 %. We will have to consult Mr Morey and see what his stats say...
rockets cant win on the road, i see losses at sac and dallas and the other one..i see if the rockets win out, a #2 seed, but rockets will lose like always on the road, and hopefully keep the #4 seed i see us at 4 and portland at 5, we beat them, tmac gets jealous because it proves the tmac curse is real then i see us getting swept in 4 games by lakers...
Seriously, have you even watched this team at all? Can't win on the road??? I think you need to have a talk with the Celtics, Mavs, Suns, Spurs, Magic, Nuggets, Blazers (I refuse to acknowledge that Roy shot), and Hornets because those are ALL teams we have beaten at THEIR house. Lame attempt at trolling.
