If we make it to the WCF, we'll have to go through a 50 win team with no injury issues. I'll take the easy first round victory just to get that symbolic monkey off our backs. Besides, thats the reason seedings exist, the higher the seed, the easier the first round matchup is supposed to be.
Why on ESPN NBA standings do the Rockets not have an X next to the name signifying that the Rockets have made the playoffs?
No matter who we will potentially face in the 1st Rd, it will be relatively easy compared to the following Rds, save for UTH. So, despite seeding, the # doesn't necessarily mean and easier match-up. It depends on just that exactly-how you match up to a particular team.
I noticed that too a week ago. even by phone on ESPN mobile they don't have an X. I hate ESPN. I even hate that they are owned by Disney.
It does matter. We are going to want the #3 seed (or the #6 seed I guess) because that means we aren't facing the Lakers in the 2nd round. I don't really care who we face, but I'm not going to pretend like I dont want the easiest matchup possible. I don't buy into this "you wanna face the best team" BS. Lets just get as far as we can into the playoffs. We probably won't win the title, but if we can get to the WCF then next season we can build on that. If we face a tough team up front and lose, then in terms of developing a team that can compete well in the post season, we're back to square one.
If we win out, it is ours because we own the tie break. If we lose just one game, we are the 3rd seed, considering games play out a certain way or two. Go to this simulator & try it out urself. http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/playoff...=D015001404514445140104500015510&24=D00011010 I'm out.
if i were the rockets... i would SERIOUSLY think about losing a game to make sure we miss the j*zz... as long as losing the game does not mean we lose home-court
Yes, if Houston wins out its likely that they will be the 2 seed since they would not be involved in a division winner tiebreak like before when we thought Spurs would be number 2 and win the SW.
I really hate to do this, but I can't let this one go. Thank you. It was a lot of fun writing this program. Point 1 of the argument: The credential game. As someone who has taught probability and statistics, and as someone who uses statistics everyday professionally, and as someone with a degree in computer science who has written several hundred thousand lines of code working in production in companies across the country, and as someone who has a graduate degree from one of the top ten graduate programs in the United States, I will respond. Point 2: The percentages change, therefore, it can't be accurate. This is the crux of his argument. Let me back up and point out to you the purpose of simulation. You would do well to read about Monte Carlo simulation and the area of simulation in general to educate yourself. What *you* want is a guess at the final outcome: a single guess. What this simulation produces is a set of estimates of likelihood. If you wanted a single guess at a single point in time, that's fine. Look at preseason prognostications. But please don't blame simulation because it isn't a crystal ball. The reason why percentages change over time is because likelihoods change over time. You claim to understand probability yet this is a fundamental fact of probability. Have you ever watched poker on ESPN? The probabilities change with every revealed set of cards. Were the probabilities inaccurate? No. Did they change? Yes, sometimes very dramatically. Why? Additional data in the form of revealed cards. A set of new results can dramatically change the likelihood of an event. Your argument is simply incorrect. Point 3: It only uses team record I assure you that it does not only use team record. You've made an unfounded statement, my friend. Point 4: It should incorporate more information I completely agree with you here. My model is simple yet it seems to be fairly effective. I'd like to make it more effective but I don't have the data in an easily accessible form. Furthermore, I would need time to do analysis, back-testing, etc. Note, however, that the most important information is the current state which includes the latest results. You simply have to understand that point. That's your opinion and you are entitled to it. I may point out to you that you do not understand how it is designed nor do you understand probability from your statements above. My question to you is: What should a simulator produce? Maybe if you think deeply enough about that question, you'll understand what simulation is and how it can help in our understanding of situations.
Latest NBA results used: Apr 7 Western Conference Average Wins Code: Team Wins ==== ==== Lakers 64.9 Nuggets 54.4 Spurs 53.3 Rockets 52.6 Blazers 52.3 Hornets 50.3 Jazz 49.8 Mavericks 48.9 Suns 45.3 Western Conference Wins (Percent) Code: Team 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 ==== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== Lakers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 4.6 24.1 45.3 25.7 Nuggets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 9.5 46.8 35.9 7.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Spurs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 4.0 16.8 33.6 32.7 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Rockets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 10.7 32.0 39.6 16.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Blazers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 3.3 17.6 36.2 32.9 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Hornets 0.0 0.0 3.8 18.9 35.0 29.3 11.3 1.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Jazz 0.0 0.4 7.2 31.0 39.5 18.9 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Mavericks 0.9 8.8 26.1 36.0 22.8 5.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Suns 33.4 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Western Conference Placement (Percent) Code: Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th out ==== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== Lakers 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Nuggets 0.0 79.7 18.0 1.8 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Spurs 0.0 9.6 50.0 21.2 15.1 3.4 0.7 0.0 0.0 Rockets 0.0 9.4 20.3 45.3 16.6 7.2 1.2 0.0 0.0 Blazers 0.0 1.3 9.5 26.7 46.3 13.3 2.5 0.3 0.0 Hornets 0.0 0.0 2.1 4.2 13.4 30.9 35.1 14.3 0.0 Jazz 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 6.8 37.2 42.4 12.9 0.0 Mavericks 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.3 7.9 18.2 72.3 0.1 Suns 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.9 Western Conference Division Title (Percent) Code: Team Northwest Title Percent ==== ====================== Nuggets 98.3 Blazers 1.7 Jazz 0.0 Team Pacific Title Percent ==== ====================== Lakers 100.0 Suns 0.0 Team Southwest Title Percent ==== ====================== Spurs 63.4 Rockets 33.4 Hornets 3.3 Mavericks 0.0 Western Conference Playoff Advancement (Percent) Code: Team To 1st To 2nd To Conf To Fnls Champs ==== ======= ======= ======= ======= ======= Lakers 100.0 88.8 70.4 57.3 26.0 Nuggets 100.0 61.6 33.4 9.8 1.5 Spurs 100.0 53.9 23.0 7.3 1.2 Rockets 100.0 53.7 19.8 7.7 1.3 Blazers 100.0 56.6 21.0 10.0 2.1 Hornets 100.0 30.5 9.9 2.0 0.2 Jazz 100.0 39.4 17.7 4.7 0.6 Mavericks 99.9 15.6 4.7 1.2 0.1 Suns 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Eastern Conference Average Wins Code: Team Wins ==== ==== Cavaliers 65.9 Celtics 61.7 Magic 61.1 Hawks 46.5 Heat 42.8 76ers 41.7 Bulls 40.3 Pistons 39.5 Bobcats 36.5 Pacers 35.4 Nets 33.7 Eastern Conference Wins (Percent) Code: Team 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 ==== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== Cavaliers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 6.5 24.8 42.2 25.8 Celtics 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 7.3 30.4 44.8 16.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Magic 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 4.0 19.5 41.9 34.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Hawks 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6 12.3 33.2 37.5 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Heat 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.9 28.1 43.6 20.2 2.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 76ers 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.9 31.9 34.8 17.9 4.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Bulls 0.0 2.9 17.0 36.7 33.1 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Pistons 2.7 15.5 32.5 31.8 14.9 2.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Bobcats 35.7 13.1 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Pacers 12.6 1.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Nets 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Eastern Conference Placement (Percent) Code: Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th out ==== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== Cavaliers 99.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Celtics 0.4 82.9 16.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Magic 0.0 16.7 83.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Hawks 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.5 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Heat 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4 85.0 12.0 1.5 0.0 0.0 76ers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12.3 74.6 12.0 1.0 0.0 Bulls 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 10.2 53.2 34.7 1.4 Pistons 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 3.1 33.2 61.6 1.2 Bobcats 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.9 98.0 Pacers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 99.4 Nets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 Eastern Conference Division Title (Percent) Code: Team Southeast Title Percent ==== ====================== Magic 100.0 Hawks 0.0 Heat 0.0 Bobcats 0.0 Team Atlantic Title Percent ==== ====================== Celtics 100.0 76ers 0.0 Nets 0.0 Team Central Title Percent ==== ====================== Cavaliers 100.0 Bulls 0.0 Pistons 0.0 Pacers 0.0 Eastern Conference Playoff Advancement (Percent) Code: Team To 1st To 2nd To Conf To Fnls Champs ==== ======= ======= ======= ======= ======= Cavaliers 100.0 97.2 91.6 56.0 39.9 Celtics 100.0 95.7 59.6 27.4 17.7 Magic 100.0 93.2 39.6 15.9 9.3 Hawks 100.0 64.7 5.5 0.5 0.1 Heat 100.0 31.0 1.7 0.1 0.0 76ers 100.0 10.9 0.8 0.1 0.0 Bulls 98.6 3.9 0.6 0.0 0.0 Pistons 98.8 3.3 0.6 0.0 0.0 Bobcats 2.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Pacers 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Nets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Rockets Home Court Advantage First Round Matchups Code: Team Percent ==== ======= Blazers 34.8 Hornets 15.3 Jazz 14.5 Spurs 4.9 Mavericks 3.4 Nuggets 0.4 Rockets Away (No Home Court Advantage) First Round Matchups Code: Team Percent ==== ======= Blazers 12.1 Spurs 8.3 Hornets 3.4 Nuggets 2.0 Jazz 0.9 Lakers 0.0 Mavericks 0.0 Rockets Combined First Round Matchups Code: Team Percent ==== ======= Blazers 46.8 Hornets 18.8 Jazz 15.4 Spurs 13.2 Mavericks 3.4 Nuggets 2.4 Lakers 0.0 Rockets Percent of First Round Home Court Advantage = 73.3 ============================================== Again, it feels really good to post the results after another big win. It was also terrific to get Landry back! I love the way he plays. Yao had a big night as did Wafer. I thought we'd get help tonight as San Antonio, Portland, and New Orleans were all struggling in their games. I thought at least one of them would lose. Sadly, that didn't happen. Because all contenders in the West won, the numbers didn't change very much. The nicest change was that we now have about a 73% chance of getting home court in the playoffs which is up from 65%.
I have no clue what you are talking about. Denver is 2 games ahead of us in the loss column. We can win out and if Denver wins out, they will be 2 games ahead of us in the loss column. They play the Lakers and Portland and 2 scrub teams to end the season. Maybe we can assume they lose both games, but I wouldn't bet on them losing both games against playoff teams AND us winning out. If we do it... great. But I just don't see it as being likely.
At least for New Orleans, I'm glad they won. I want them to stay ahead of Utah in the standings. If we're able to catch SA, only for Utah to catch NO, I'd be freaking pissed. My dream seeding would be: 1. Lakers 2. Nuggets 3. Rockets 4. Blazers 5. Spurs 6. NO 7. Dallas 8. Utah
Since these stats are posted April 7th, how do the Spurs have a chance of holding onto the SW div title w/o Ginobili? I think we have a very, very good chance of taking the title.
Because its a computer that just goes on past records and trends. The Spurs could have just acquired the West All Star team and the numbers would not change. When/if the Spurs lose a game their numbers will move around a bit.
Yea, this would be win. Probably, the only realistic way we could get a ring. Portland is probably the only team that could take down the Lakers and we avoid the Jazz in this scenario. I am crossing my fingers for this seeding
I'd like to see a statistical value assigned to the probability of Yao or RonRon throwing a tone-establishing elbow at Matt Harpring, Ronnie Brewer or Paul Millsap early in the inevitable Jazz series...
The possibility of us playing the Jazz is under 23%. So far so good! Code: Taking BBR's #s 2-7 3-6 4-5 5-4 6-3 7-2 Rockets 9.40% 20.30% 45.30% 16.60% 7.20% 1.20% Jazz 1.30% 9.50% 26.70% 46.30% 13.30% 2.50% Total 0.12% 1.93% 12.10% 7.69% 0.96% 0.03% 22.82%
