You can guess, but your guess would change after every game too I bet. Had we lost against Portland we're probably talking about who we would rather face between San Antonio and Portland without homecourt (because the odds of us getting it back just dropped tremendously), and the possibility of losing our spot to the Hornets. Or had we beaten LA or Phoenix we are talking about the probability of us winning the division being even greater. We could probably have a good guess overall. But we would base it on how well we've been playing, how many games we have at home/on road, how many games we have against good teams and how many our opponents have. Which is exactly what this simulator does.
Except it would take longer to do it by hand and you wouldn't get as accurate a result as this simulator. Some would probably eyeball the schedule and go "well I think we can win 4 of the 5 games" and base predictions on that.
I think that's what he's saying. You can really just printout the NBA schedule by day for the final month, and make predictions based on that, after every day that would change, but that would be equally useful. I like statistics and numbers, though, so really appreciate this approach. Plus, I don't want to have to print out and look myself. So while this approach may not be perfect, it is definitely helpful at a minimum. Also, still hoping the OP can answer my question about the Blazers on the last page.
But it would take longer and not be as accurate... thus there is a reason for a simulator like this. Plus... there isn't a thread about the playoff stretch really other than the magic number thread. But it doesn't really go into discussion about the odds of us getting what matchup.
I am curious about that too. I wonder why the Blazers are the second most likely team behind the Lakers to go to the Finals. Theoretically, it might be possible that while the Blazers are most likely facing Houston without HCA, that is not the only possibilities. Maybe the odds of them facing other opponents together with the odds of beating those opponents outweighs their odds of playing us. It is weird though.
Look at the Blazer's numbers against the Lakers....Its primarily dependent on them being in the same side of the bracket as the Lakers. So its one of those situations where they have the best chance to beat the Lakers and thus have the highest chance at getting to the finals or something. IF they get to the 2nd round to the Lakers, they would have already ousted the Rockets. Then if they get past LA, they have the Nuggets or Spurs(or I guess Jazz/Hornets) and I'd take Portland in a 7 game series over Denver and a (so far) poorly playing Spurs team.
true, but if I'm reading it right, it also has them as being more likely than the Rockets of getting to the second round, which, TODAY, makes little sense....
Maybe they are going by the head to head record against the Lakers. We're 0-4 against LA, Portland (without checking) probably has something better. So they are assuming if Houston would beat Portland, they would probably lose to LA, while if Portland beat Houston, they have a decent shot.
I agree with that. Though maybe if the Rockets move up to number 3 and the Blazers face the Spurs, they are more favored in that matchup. Whereas the Rockets in a 3-6 matchup with the Jazz would be less of a favorable matchup. Remember, the 2nd round/3rd round probabilities arent based on the initial 1-8 seedings, its based on potential seedings. Since there are so many possibilities right now, perhaps certain matchups against teams not named the Rockets favor the Blazers.
Portland is 1-2 with one game left to play against them. That theory probably isn't true then. I wouldn't worry about them being the 2nd best. There is probably some factor being overrated that has them with a better shot to win. Maybe its road% or conference% or something.
Sure, or you can just glance at it and guess (and hope in this case) that we finish the 3rd seed and play either NOLA or the Blazers in the first round before going on to the play the 2nd seed Nuggets in the second round which would get us to the Western Finals against LA. That is an optimistic realistic prediction that took nothing more than a glance at the standings and some knowledge of our history against those teams.....also it would be nice to avoid Utah. Hate those bastards.
You got the matchups right, but my ideal seedings would be: 1. Lakers 2. Nuggets 3. Rockets (SW Division champs via tiebreaker) 4. Spurs 5. Hornets 6. Blazers 7. Mavericks 8. Jazz This would mean a good shot at getting out of the first round, a good shot at making the Conference Finals over the Nugs/Mavs, and a good chance of LA getting knocked out by UTA/NO/SA...leaving us with our best chance at making the finals (against Orlando somehow).
MANU IS OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SEASON!!!!!!!!! FINALLY SOMEONE ELSE GET HIT IN THE A#$................GO ROX
With only 5 games left in the season, will we make it in time? You have to like our chances to win the division, but we still need to beat teams like the Hornets and Mavs to actually take the division lead. Fortunately, the hardest team we have to face, Orlando, won't really have an effect on the tiebreakers. We can lose to them, realistically beat the last 4 teams (Hornets, Mavs, and 2 scrub teams), and still win the division via tiebreakers if the Spurs lose two of their last 6 games (which is very likely). Or if we beat the Magic, and lose to... say the Hornets. Then we would need the Spurs to lose 3 games, or 1 game and a 2nd loss to the Hornets at the end of the season. The completely awesome scenario is if San Antonio just completely falls apart and lands 6th seed. We land 3rd and get to play them in the playoffs. Not as likely because the Spurs still played decent without Manu for a while there. But very possible.
I'm on vacation right now so I don't have a lot of time; otherwise the better half will killl me! I'll try to answer that in more detail later. Suffice to say that the Blazers according to the model (not only mine, but Hollinger's and Basketball Reference's models) are the second best team in the West. I'll have to run the numbers, but my guess would be the Blazers are a toss up over us (if you combine both home and away possibilities) but against other teams they have a better chance of advancing than we do.
So true, but I would rather not play them, too BITTERsweet. So, I would rather LA play them while we get more battle-tested with the less depleted roster of DEN.
We would beat the Spurs with a gimp Duncan and Ginobli out for the season. At home we were a game winning shot away from beating them, then we went out and beat them on the road. And we matchup well against the Spurs. Parker isn't THAT huge a matchup problem with Brooks (no more than any other team). Yao will force Duncan to shoot jumpers because he flat out can't post up Yao. Then you just have to stay out on their shooters.
This is probably it, though I'd still be interested in knowing if it's right. Even though qualitatively you and I and everyone can agree the Jazz aren't a great matchup for us, we are still 2-2 against them this season with both teams winning at home.....AND the Jazz being one of the worst road teams in the playoffs. As the Magic # thread shows, except for the Lakers, we have a winning or neutral record against every other playoff team. Combine that with the fact that the Rockets have a higher % of having home-court then the Blazers do based on the last run, then it still doesn't make that much sense that the Blazers have a 57% chance of making the second round and the Rockets have a 52% chance. The Blazers are 2-1 vs. San Antonio 1-2 vs. Houston 1-2 vs. Lakers 2-2 vs. Hornets 2-2 vs. Jazz 1-2 vs. Denver Something about the math doesn't seem to be working, to me?
No doubt. But my point was that I would rather play a healthier team to be more battle tested. Let LA play them or POR. We will be more ready for battle in a potential WCF w/LA.
