Then Hollinger and Basketball Reference are both flawed too. All three simulators have Portland as the second favorite coming out of the West. My simulator has Portland as the second best team in the West. I'm sure that Hollinger and Basketball Reference do too.
Latest NBA results used: Apr 4 Western Conference Average Wins Code: Team Wins ==== ==== Lakers 64.7 Nuggets 54.1 Spurs 53.3 Blazers 52.5 Rockets 51.6 Hornets 50.4 Jazz 49.2 Mavericks 48.4 Suns 45.8 Western Conference Wins (Percent) Code: Team 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 ==== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== Lakers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.1 8.1 27.9 41.9 20.9 Nuggets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 3.5 21.7 43.7 26.2 4.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Spurs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 5.8 17.6 30.4 29.1 13.9 2.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Blazers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 4.2 15.1 30.0 30.8 16.2 3.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Rockets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 3.1 13.3 28.2 32.0 18.6 4.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Hornets 0.0 0.0 0.9 6.0 18.0 29.3 27.0 14.5 4.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Jazz 0.0 0.3 4.4 21.1 36.3 27.2 9.5 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Mavericks 0.4 4.4 16.3 30.8 30.2 15.1 2.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Suns 27.0 34.9 20.7 4.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Western Conference Placement (Percent) Code: Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th out ==== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== Lakers 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Nuggets 0.0 69.9 22.2 6.3 1.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Spurs 0.0 18.2 48.8 17.3 11.6 3.8 0.4 0.0 0.0 Blazers 0.0 7.3 16.0 38.9 26.2 9.9 1.6 0.2 0.0 Rockets 0.0 4.3 9.8 28.6 32.7 19.0 5.1 0.6 0.0 Hornets 0.0 0.4 3.3 8.2 19.3 33.3 26.0 9.3 0.1 Jazz 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 7.6 27.2 45.4 19.0 0.2 Mavericks 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.1 6.7 21.3 60.6 10.0 Suns 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10.2 89.7 Western Conference Division Title (Percent) Code: Team Northwest Title Percent ==== ====================== Nuggets 90.0 Blazers 10.0 Jazz 0.0 Team Pacific Title Percent ==== ====================== Lakers 100.0 Suns 0.0 Team Southwest Title Percent ==== ====================== Spurs 75.5 Rockets 18.3 Hornets 6.1 Mavericks 0.0 Western Conference Playoff Advancement (Percent) Code: Team To 1st To 2nd To Conf To Fnls Champs ==== ======= ======= ======= ======= ======= Lakers 100.0 88.5 69.5 56.2 25.7 Nuggets 100.0 59.8 29.5 8.6 1.3 Spurs 100.0 57.7 27.3 8.9 1.5 Blazers 100.0 62.3 26.6 12.7 2.7 Rockets 100.0 47.3 16.8 6.2 1.0 Hornets 99.9 32.4 10.2 2.3 0.2 Jazz 99.8 36.9 15.8 4.2 0.6 Mavericks 90.0 13.9 4.1 0.9 0.1 Suns 10.3 1.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 Eastern Conference Average Wins Code: Team Wins ==== ==== Cavaliers 65.6 Celtics 61.7 Magic 61.6 Hawks 46.1 Heat 43.4 76ers 42.8 Bulls 40.0 Pistons 39.1 Bobcats 36.5 Pacers 34.9 Raptors 33.6 Nets 33.1 Eastern Conference Wins (Percent) Code: Team 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 ==== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== Cavaliers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.2 11.5 29.6 37.7 18.7 Celtics 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 7.4 30.7 44.7 16.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Magic 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.8 10.8 29.1 39.2 18.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Hawks 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 6.7 22.0 35.4 27.2 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Heat 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.5 15.7 35.1 33.2 12.3 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 76ers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.5 13.3 26.6 29.8 19.1 7.1 1.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Bulls 0.0 0.9 7.7 24.0 35.6 25.1 6.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Pistons 1.0 7.4 21.6 32.6 25.4 10.3 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Bobcats 31.1 30.2 15.2 3.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Pacers 22.1 7.3 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Raptors 5.3 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Nets 1.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Eastern Conference Placement (Percent) Code: Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th out ==== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== Cavaliers 98.7 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Celtics 1.0 65.7 33.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Magic 0.3 33.3 66.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Hawks 0.0 0.0 0.0 88.1 10.0 1.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 Heat 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.9 66.4 24.8 0.9 0.0 0.0 76ers 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 23.4 69.6 2.9 0.1 0.0 Bulls 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.6 58.3 35.4 3.6 Pistons 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.1 36.2 57.6 5.0 Bobcats 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.7 5.9 92.4 Pacers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 99.0 Raptors 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 Nets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 Eastern Conference Division Title (Percent) Code: Team Southeast Title Percent ==== ====================== Magic 100.0 Hawks 0.0 Heat 0.0 Bobcats 0.0 Team Atlantic Title Percent ==== ====================== Celtics 100.0 76ers 0.0 Raptors 0.0 Nets 0.0 Team Central Title Percent ==== ====================== Cavaliers 100.0 Bulls 0.0 Pistons 0.0 Pacers 0.0 Eastern Conference Playoff Advancement (Percent) Code: Team To 1st To 2nd To Conf To Fnls Champs ==== ======= ======= ======= ======= ======= Cavaliers 100.0 97.1 90.8 54.4 38.2 Celtics 100.0 95.6 56.8 27.0 17.7 Magic 100.0 93.3 42.8 17.9 11.0 Hawks 100.0 60.7 5.4 0.5 0.1 Heat 100.0 29.0 1.7 0.1 0.0 76ers 100.0 17.5 1.4 0.1 0.0 Bulls 96.4 3.7 0.5 0.0 0.0 Pistons 95.0 3.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 Bobcats 7.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Pacers 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Raptors 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Nets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Rockets Home Court Advantage First Round Matchups Code: Team Percent ==== ======= Blazers 17.7 Hornets 9.7 Jazz 6.4 Spurs 4.7 Mavericks 1.7 Nuggets 1.1 Suns 0.0 Rockets Away (No Home Court Advantage) First Round Matchups Code: Team Percent ==== ======= Blazers 26.1 Spurs 16.4 Nuggets 10.4 Hornets 4.5 Lakers 0.6 Jazz 0.6 Mavericks 0.0 Rockets Combined First Round Matchups Code: Team Percent ==== ======= Blazers 43.8 Spurs 21.1 Hornets 14.2 Nuggets 11.5 Jazz 7.0 Mavericks 1.7 Lakers 0.6 Suns 0.0 Rockets Percent of First Round Home Court Advantage = 41.4 ============================================== The only significant result last night as far as the West was concerned was the Nuggets win. They now have a slightly better chance of securing second. The Rockets have a huge game tonight with the Blazers that may well determine home court advantage in the playoffs. If the Rockets lose, it will be very difficult for them to get home court advantage. If they win, they still have a decent shot at it.
If we beat the Blazers, our numbers look like this (ignoring other results): Western Conference Placement (Percent) Code: Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th out ==== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== Rockets 0.0 7.4 14.7 42.0 21.7 11.8 2.3 0.1 0.0 Blazers 0.0 2.8 10.1 28.6 39.0 16.5 2.7 0.4 0.0 Rockets Combined First Round Matchups Code: Team Percent ==== ======= Blazers 44.1 Hornets 20.0 Spurs 15.1 Jazz 11.4 Nuggets 6.4 Mavericks 3.0 Lakers 0.1 Suns 0.0 Rockets Percent of First Round Home Court Advantage = 62.2 ============================================== However, if we lose, this is what we looks like: Western Conference Placement (Percent) Code: Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th out ==== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== Rockets 0.0 0.4 3.6 10.0 46.6 27.9 10.0 1.6 0.0 Blazers 0.0 12.8 23.8 52.4 9.1 1.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 Rockets Combined First Round Matchups Code: Team Percent ==== ======= Blazers 41.6 Spurs 29.1 Nuggets 18.7 Hornets 6.5 Jazz 2.2 Lakers 1.6 Mavericks 0.3 Rockets Percent of First Round Home Court Advantage = 13.7 ============================================== That's a very big swing. A win likely gives us 4th - 5th. A losses likely puts us at 5th - 6th. Wow, talk about a huge game!
Good illustration of just how HUGE this win was. Mental edge, confidence, and nearly a must win in regards to homecourt seeding + tiebreaker). We lose, homecourt is all but a pipedream. Great win! Hopefully Landry returns soon as an added weapon.
Latest NBA results used: Apr 5 Western Conference Average Wins Code: Team Wins ==== ==== Lakers 64.8 Nuggets 54.4 Spurs 53.0 Rockets 52.1 Blazers 52.0 Jazz 49.8 Hornets 49.7 Mavericks 48.9 Suns 45.3 Western Conference Wins (Percent) Code: Team 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 ==== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== Lakers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 7.4 27.1 42.7 21.9 Nuggets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 9.7 46.4 36.2 7.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Spurs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.4 7.8 21.9 33.2 26.9 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Rockets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 6.3 22.0 36.0 27.3 7.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Blazers 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 6.8 22.2 35.8 26.7 7.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Jazz 0.0 0.4 7.0 30.6 39.7 19.4 2.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Hornets 0.0 2.1 12.0 28.1 32.0 19.2 5.9 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Mavericks 0.9 8.3 26.1 36.2 23.1 5.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Suns 33.7 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Western Conference Placement (Percent) Code: Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th out ==== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== Lakers 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Nuggets 0.0 86.0 12.6 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Spurs 0.0 7.5 54.1 20.1 14.4 2.9 1.0 0.1 0.0 Rockets 0.0 5.3 19.5 41.4 21.0 10.0 2.7 0.2 0.0 Blazers 0.0 1.3 12.0 30.8 39.6 12.0 3.5 0.8 0.0 Jazz 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.7 12.3 43.5 33.0 9.5 0.0 Hornets 0.0 0.0 1.8 4.2 10.2 21.3 39.9 22.7 0.0 Mavericks 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 2.3 10.4 20.0 66.6 0.1 Suns 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.9 Western Conference Division Title (Percent) Code: Team Northwest Title Percent ==== ====================== Nuggets 98.6 Blazers 1.4 Jazz 0.0 Team Pacific Title Percent ==== ====================== Lakers 100.0 Suns 0.0 Team Southwest Title Percent ==== ====================== Spurs 67.4 Rockets 29.5 Hornets 3.1 Mavericks 0.0 Western Conference Playoff Advancement (Percent) Code: Team To 1st To 2nd To Conf To Fnls Champs ==== ======= ======= ======= ======= ======= Lakers 100.0 88.4 69.8 56.5 24.7 Nuggets 100.0 62.5 34.1 10.3 1.7 Spurs 100.0 53.8 22.9 7.3 1.1 Rockets 100.0 52.0 18.7 7.2 1.1 Blazers 100.0 57.0 22.2 10.6 2.1 Jazz 100.0 40.5 17.9 4.9 0.7 Hornets 100.0 28.6 9.2 2.0 0.2 Mavericks 99.9 17.2 5.2 1.2 0.1 Suns 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Eastern Conference Average Wins Code: Team Wins ==== ==== Cavaliers 65.9 Celtics 61.7 Magic 61.6 Hawks 46.1 Heat 43.4 76ers 42.2 Bulls 40.0 Pistons 39.5 Bobcats 36.1 Pacers 35.4 Nets 33.7 Eastern Conference Wins (Percent) Code: Team 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 ==== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== Cavaliers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 6.5 24.8 42.1 25.9 Celtics 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 7.4 30.3 44.5 17.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Magic 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.0 10.9 30.3 38.3 18.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Hawks 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 6.5 21.9 35.4 27.0 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Heat 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.5 15.5 35.3 33.2 12.1 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 76ers 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.2 22.8 33.1 25.6 10.1 2.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Bulls 0.9 7.3 23.3 36.3 25.5 6.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Pistons 2.9 15.5 32.6 31.6 14.7 2.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Bobcats 26.2 8.2 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Pacers 12.6 1.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Nets 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Eastern Conference Placement (Percent) Code: Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th out ==== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== Cavaliers 99.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Celtics 0.3 66.9 32.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Magic 0.1 32.7 67.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Hawks 0.0 0.0 0.0 90.3 8.9 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 Heat 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.5 75.8 14.8 0.9 0.0 0.0 76ers 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 15.0 77.2 6.3 0.3 0.0 Bulls 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 5.0 51.3 41.6 2.0 Pistons 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.1 41.4 55.0 1.2 Bobcats 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.2 97.7 Pacers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 99.1 Nets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 Eastern Conference Division Title (Percent) Code: Team Southeast Title Percent ==== ====================== Magic 100.0 Hawks 0.0 Heat 0.0 Bobcats 0.0 Team Atlantic Title Percent ==== ====================== Celtics 100.0 76ers 0.0 Nets 0.0 Team Central Title Percent ==== ====================== Cavaliers 100.0 Bulls 0.0 Pistons 0.0 Pacers 0.0 Eastern Conference Playoff Advancement (Percent) Code: Team To 1st To 2nd To Conf To Fnls Champs ==== ======= ======= ======= ======= ======= Cavaliers 100.0 97.2 91.8 55.8 40.4 Celtics 100.0 95.7 56.6 26.0 17.1 Magic 100.0 93.8 42.8 17.6 10.7 Hawks 100.0 62.7 5.2 0.5 0.1 Heat 100.0 31.8 1.7 0.1 0.0 76ers 100.0 11.9 0.8 0.1 0.0 Bulls 98.0 3.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 Pistons 98.8 3.2 0.6 0.0 0.0 Bobcats 2.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Pacers 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Nets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Rockets Home Court Advantage First Round Matchups Code: Team Percent ==== ======= Blazers 29.7 Jazz 14.8 Hornets 10.4 Spurs 5.3 Mavericks 4.2 Nuggets 0.2 Rockets Away (No Home Court Advantage) First Round Matchups Code: Team Percent ==== ======= Blazers 15.9 Spurs 11.0 Nuggets 3.6 Hornets 2.6 Jazz 2.0 Lakers 0.2 Mavericks 0.0 Rockets Combined First Round Matchups Code: Team Percent ==== ======= Blazers 45.6 Jazz 16.9 Spurs 16.3 Hornets 13.0 Mavericks 4.2 Nuggets 3.7 Lakers 0.2 Rockets Percent of First Round Home Court Advantage = 64.6 ============================================== It is great to run this simulator after a win! The Rockets breathed life into their pursuit for home court advantage with a big win over the Blazers. We now have a 65% chance of getting home court advantage. We also have a 30% shot at the dvision. Right now, it is looking like: Lakers Nuggets Spurs Rockets Blazers Jazz Hornets Mavs Mind you, except for the Lakers, the rest of the positions are in a lot of flux. A game or two can really change the standings. As far as our matchup in round one, there is a decent chance that it is the Blazers. We also have an outside chance of meeting up with the Jazz, Spurs and Hornets. Let's get a win against the Magic and further improve our numbers!
The Jazz are in the 6th spot, Ughhh can't we get away from these guys? i would really like to see them stay in 7.
BigBigRed, I'm curious what your odds for the Spurs are against @OKC, Porltand. It's a back-to-back, and the Thieves seem to have the Spurs number.
I hope they fall to 8th. They're only 1 game ahead of Dallas for the final playoff spot. If Utah and Dallas flip-flop the macthups look like this: 1. Fakers 8. j*zz 4. Rockets 5. Blazers 2. Nuggets 7. Mavs 3. Spurs 6. Hornets
I'm really liking our matchup against Portland. Even if we end up playing them. We've dominated them the entire season. We would be 3-0 against them if not for that lucky shot by Brandon Roy. I think Roy can be contained 1 on 1 by Artest and Battier, allowing everyone to go 1 on 1 against their respective players. There is no defensive mismatch for Yao. Aldrich gives us trouble, but Hayes seems to have his number. Plus, when we talk about coaching matchups, you are facing the worst coach of all the potential 1st round matchups (has the least playoff experience of anyone in the west), and the team with essentially no playoff experience. If we face the TrailBlazers and DON'T beat them, its on Adelman.
I'm sure this has been discussed already but I'm somewhat new to this thread. In the latest run, what is the reason the Blazers are more likely to advance to the second round when the math has them most likely playing the Rockets, most likely without home court advantage, having lost the season series to the Rockets 1-2, having a worse conference record, etc.?? What in the algorithm creates that?
I'm sorry but I have to point this out. First let me just say that I really do appreciate what you're doing and I think its great that you have put so much effort into all of this. However, as a computer programmer and a neuroscience graduate student that deals a lot with statistics and probabilities, I have to say something. While your intentions are good, your program to "simulate" the Rockets' record is somewhat meaningless. Let me explain, after every game that is played, the resulting percentages look drastically different, all in favor or against the outcome of the days' games. If this simulator took anything else into account other than a teams record then it might be reasonable to assume that it was accurate. There is more to a team than their record which is why there aren't many of these so called "simulators" out there that are very accurate because there is so much to take into account. It seems like your program just builds a matrix of all of the contending teams, their win records and the upcoming games and generates probabilities based on that. Unfortunately, that means that the results will change drastically every night and therefore, will not be very reliable in guessing the final outcome except for the day right before the Rockets' last game. Again, I commend you on your efforts, however, I do not think this is worth the time (or the sticky for that matter) with the way that your simulator is currently designed.
The simulator does what it is supposed to do. It shows the probabilities of certain things happening, based on running them through a simulator a large amount of times. The only potential flaw in the program IMO is the formula he uses to determine who wins each game. Although, even if his formula was perfect, you would still get this back and forth change every time we win or lose a game. The reason this happens is because say his formula had us beating Portland 60% of the time. After we actually beat them, the next time he runs the simulator, instead of us beating Portland 60% of the time, we beat them 100% of the time (because we actually beat them). This is why there is such a difference between simulators being run every day. This isn't a bad thing. And you aren't going to find a simulator that isn't going to change day to day and get the right prediction at the end. The best you can do is use basic probability theory and have a good formula to figure out the odds of a team winning a single game against another team and you'll get what he got.
http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showthread.php?t=165557&page=1 Look at his results the first day he started this. They are actually pretty close to the version he has now. We had a good shot to land somewhere in the 3-5 range back then, and now its about the same. And you have to consider how awesome it is to be that spot on considering for about a month we've been only a game or so out of 7th, and had the 2nd hardest schedule to finish the season.
I understand that and I'm not saying that there is something better out there and I'm certainly not saying that I know of something better. All I'm saying is that at this rate, I can guess just as easily what our chances will be after we win each game and another team loses. If 2 games ago we were likely to get 3rd place and then 2 games later we win one and lose one and now we're very likely to hold onto 4th place then you don't need a simulator program to tell you that. I'm suggesting just have the discussion about our possible placement using the magic numbers or something definite and do away with a simulator that changes drastically after every game. Again, I think the intentions are good, but a simulator like this one is a bit pointless, don't you think?
