I start by getting an updated download the game results. Lately, I've been updating these manually, but I won't always have the time to do that. Then I run through 50,000 simulations of the rest of the season. The heart of the simulation, is of course, to determine the probability of a team winning an individual game. I won't give that away, but it seems that my formula is very similar to the one used by Hollinger and the one on Basketball Reference since our final numbers tend to be quite close. Then, I assess the results. The hardest part is to determine ranking. Thanks to some fairly complicated rules regarding division winners and tie breaks, this turns out to be the hardest thing to program correctly. I have programmed my understanding of the NBA tie break system based on a web page on NBA.com (first determine division winners; division winners must be seeded in the top four, then determine the fourth team, rank the four teams ... if the non division winner is tied then it automatically loses, rank the rest of the teams, etc. where rank is based on wins, head to head record, division record if applicable, conference record, record against playoff eligible teams in own conference, sometimes playoff eligible teams in the other conference, and point differential). I accumulate the results for the 50,000 simulations and present them to you on ClutchFans.
Latest NBA results used: Apr 1 Western Conference Average Wins Code: Team Wins ==== ==== Lakers 64.5 Nuggets 53.6 Spurs 52.9 Blazers 52.1 Rockets 51.9 Hornets 51.0 Jazz 50.5 Mavericks 49.1 Suns 45.6 Western Conference Wins (Percent) Code: Team 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 ==== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== Lakers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 3.0 13.2 31.7 35.9 15.8 Nuggets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.6 12.8 31.2 34.6 16.0 2.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Spurs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 3.1 11.2 23.0 29.8 22.5 8.6 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Blazers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.7 7.7 20.0 30.5 25.9 11.9 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Rockets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.2 10.0 23.3 31.2 23.1 8.8 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Hornets 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.5 10.5 22.0 28.4 22.3 10.9 3.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Jazz 0.0 0.0 0.5 4.3 16.7 30.2 28.7 15.1 4.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Mavericks 0.2 1.9 8.6 21.4 30.4 25.0 10.7 1.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Suns 28.9 32.9 17.7 3.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Western Conference Placement (Percent) Code: Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th out ==== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== Lakers 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Nuggets 0.0 55.4 25.2 10.2 5.7 2.8 0.8 0.0 0.0 Spurs 0.0 18.5 36.4 16.8 15.7 8.8 3.4 0.4 0.0 Blazers 0.0 10.0 13.2 27.0 21.9 16.3 8.8 2.8 0.0 Rockets 0.0 11.4 13.8 26.0 20.3 16.5 10.2 1.9 0.0 Hornets 0.0 3.1 8.2 11.5 16.1 21.8 28.3 10.9 0.0 Jazz 0.0 1.6 3.2 7.3 17.3 26.9 32.1 11.5 0.1 Mavericks 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.0 6.9 16.5 67.3 5.0 Suns 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.1 94.8 Western Conference Division Title (Percent) Code: Team Northwest Title Percent ==== ====================== Nuggets 80.6 Blazers 14.8 Jazz 4.6 Team Pacific Title Percent ==== ====================== Lakers 100.0 Suns 0.0 Team Southwest Title Percent ==== ====================== Spurs 58.7 Rockets 27.7 Hornets 13.5 Mavericks 0.2 Eastern Conference Average Wins Code: Team Wins ==== ==== Cavaliers 67.1 Celtics 61.5 Magic 60.7 Hawks 46.7 Heat 42.4 76ers 42.0 Bulls 39.6 Pistons 39.5 Bobcats 37.1 Pacers 35.3 Bucks 35.1 Nets 33.5 Raptors 32.9 Eastern Conference Wins (Percent) Code: Team 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 ==== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== Cavaliers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.5 7.3 20.4 33.4 28.2 9.2 Celtics 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.1 12.2 33.6 39.2 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Magic 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 3.4 12.0 25.8 31.9 20.8 5.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Hawks 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 3.2 12.5 26.3 30.9 19.9 6.2 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Heat 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 4.9 16.7 30.1 28.8 14.8 3.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 76ers 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.7 10.3 21.9 27.5 22.5 10.9 3.3 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Bulls 0.3 3.1 13.0 27.8 32.3 19.1 4.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Pistons 0.7 5.2 16.9 28.6 27.8 15.7 4.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Bobcats 22.0 30.8 23.9 10.7 2.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Pacers 26.3 12.9 3.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Bucks 24.9 8.7 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Nets 4.2 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Raptors 2.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Eastern Conference Placement (Percent) Code: Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th out ==== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== Cavaliers 99.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Celtics 0.0 79.5 20.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Magic 0.0 20.4 79.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Hawks 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.6 2.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Heat 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 62.9 30.2 5.0 0.7 0.0 76ers 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 30.9 48.7 14.0 4.8 0.5 Bulls 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 10.0 39.0 38.5 11.5 Pistons 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 10.4 37.3 42.2 7.1 Bobcats 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 4.7 12.5 82.2 Pacers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 98.9 Bucks 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.9 Nets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.9 Raptors 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 Eastern Conference Division Title (Percent) Code: Team Southeast Title Percent ==== ====================== Magic 100.0 Hawks 0.0 Heat 0.0 Bobcats 0.0 Team Atlantic Title Percent ==== ====================== Celtics 100.0 76ers 0.0 Nets 0.0 Raptors 0.0 Team Central Title Percent ==== ====================== Cavaliers 100.0 Bulls 0.0 Pistons 0.0 Pacers 0.0 Bucks 0.0 Rockets Home Court Advantage First Round Matchups Code: Team Percent ==== ======= Blazers 12.5 Hornets 11.9 Jazz 11.5 Spurs 5.7 Mavericks 4.0 Nuggets 3.2 Suns 0.0 Rockets Away (No Home Court Advantage) First Round Matchups Code: Team Percent ==== ======= Blazers 13.5 Spurs 13.3 Nuggets 11.0 Hornets 6.6 Jazz 4.8 Lakers 1.9 Mavericks 0.2 Rockets Combined First Round Matchups Code: Team Percent ==== ======= Blazers 26.1 Spurs 18.9 Hornets 18.5 Jazz 16.3 Nuggets 14.1 Mavericks 4.2 Lakers 1.9 Suns 0.0 Rockets Percent of First Round Home Court Advantage = 48.7 =========================================== The loss by the Rockets against the Suns really hurt. We now have less than a 50% chance of getting HCA. We also really hurt our chances to win the division by 10%; it is now 27.7% Had we won, we would have overtaken the Spurs as the favorites to win the division, increased our expected number of wins to 53, and increased our chances for home court advantage to 71%. One game makes a huge difference in the tight West. By the way, I am going on vacation, so I may not be as timely in my posts. Please bear with me. Also, if you have comments or suggestions, please let me know. Enjoy!
So bottom line this for me, am I cheering for Denver or Utah tonite? I'm kidding I would never cheer for the Jazz.
It's amazing how one loss at this point in the season can swing the odds so dramatically. Thanks for the insight, BigBigRed.
You just hope this isn't the beggining of a losing streak or a cluster of losses. I'm looking at the schedule and you have LA in LA, and Orlando at home, along with teams like Portland and New Orleans... we might catch a break and find ourselves in a situation where Dallas rests their starters when we play them. Plus I think we are running into LA when they are kind of mailing it in before the playoffs.
Latest NBA results used: Apr 2 Western Conference Average Wins Code: Team Wins ==== ==== Lakers 64.5 Nuggets 53.9 Spurs 52.9 Blazers 52.1 Rockets 51.9 Hornets 51.0 Jazz 50.0 Mavericks 49.1 Suns 45.6 Western Conference Wins (Percent) Code: Team 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 ==== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== Lakers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.9 13.3 31.5 36.4 15.5 Nuggets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 5.6 24.3 41.4 24.0 4.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Spurs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 3.1 10.9 23.3 29.7 22.3 8.8 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Blazers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.7 7.9 19.9 30.8 25.7 11.6 2.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Rockets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.1 9.7 23.6 31.2 23.2 8.7 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Hornets 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.6 10.2 21.6 28.5 22.7 11.1 2.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Jazz 0.0 0.0 0.9 6.8 23.3 34.9 24.6 8.3 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Mavericks 0.2 1.8 8.7 21.3 30.5 24.8 10.9 1.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Suns 28.7 33.1 17.6 3.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Western Conference Placement (Percent) Code: Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th out ==== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== Lakers 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Nuggets 0.0 68.1 22.9 6.3 2.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 Spurs 0.0 13.9 39.7 20.2 14.9 8.5 2.6 0.3 0.0 Blazers 0.0 6.2 13.7 27.6 24.6 17.3 8.1 2.5 0.0 Rockets 0.0 9.5 14.5 27.1 22.1 16.8 8.3 1.6 0.0 Hornets 0.0 2.1 8.4 13.5 18.9 22.3 24.2 10.4 0.0 Jazz 0.0 0.1 0.7 3.9 14.2 26.6 38.4 16.1 0.0 Mavericks 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.3 3.3 7.9 18.4 64.0 5.0 Suns 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 95.0 Western Conference Division Title (Percent) Code: Team Northwest Title Percent ==== ====================== Nuggets 90.6 Blazers 9.0 Jazz 0.5 Team Pacific Title Percent ==== ====================== Lakers 100.0 Suns 0.0 Team Southwest Title Percent ==== ====================== Spurs 59.0 Rockets 27.7 Hornets 13.1 Mavericks 0.2 Western Conference Playoff Advancement (Percent) Code: Team To 1st To 2nd To Conf To Fnls Champs ==== ======= ======= ======= ======= ======= Lakers 100.0 88.0 72.2 57.4 25.4 Nuggets 100.0 56.1 17.4 7.0 1.0 Spurs 100.0 55.6 26.3 8.4 1.4 Blazers 100.0 57.2 30.3 10.9 2.2 Rockets 100.0 52.7 24.6 8.1 1.4 Hornets 100.0 34.8 11.4 2.7 0.3 Jazz 100.0 39.4 13.6 4.4 0.6 Mavericks 95.0 15.6 3.9 1.0 0.1 Suns 5.0 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 Eastern Conference Average Wins Code: Team Wins ==== ==== Cavaliers 66.1 Celtics 61.5 Magic 60.7 Hawks 46.7 Heat 42.4 76ers 42.4 Bulls 39.6 Pistons 39.5 Bobcats 37.1 Pacers 35.3 Bucks 34.7 Nets 33.4 Raptors 32.9 Eastern Conference Wins (Percent) Code: Team 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 ==== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== Cavaliers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 6.3 19.9 33.8 29.5 9.4 Celtics 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.1 12.0 33.9 39.0 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Magic 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 3.3 12.1 25.9 32.0 20.6 5.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Hawks 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.8 12.3 26.4 31.0 19.9 6.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Heat 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 4.8 17.1 29.9 28.7 14.9 3.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 76ers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 6.1 17.7 28.0 26.8 14.7 4.9 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Bulls 0.2 3.1 13.1 27.8 32.3 19.1 4.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Pistons 0.7 5.4 17.0 28.5 27.9 15.3 4.7 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Bobcats 22.4 30.7 23.9 10.4 2.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Pacers 26.7 13.0 3.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Bucks 19.5 3.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Nets 4.1 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Raptors 2.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Eastern Conference Placement (Percent) Code: Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th out ==== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== Cavaliers 99.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Celtics 0.3 79.8 19.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Magic 0.1 19.8 80.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Hawks 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.4 2.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 Heat 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 57.3 34.9 5.8 0.8 0.0 76ers 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6 37.1 50.9 7.9 2.4 0.1 Bulls 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 4.4 43.3 40.4 11.4 Pistons 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.7 9.2 38.3 42.8 7.0 Bobcats 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 4.6 12.4 82.8 Pacers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 98.8 Bucks 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 Nets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.9 Raptors 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 Eastern Conference Division Title (Percent) Code: Team Southeast Title Percent ==== ====================== Magic 100.0 Hawks 0.0 Heat 0.0 Bobcats 0.0 Team Atlantic Title Percent ==== ====================== Celtics 100.0 76ers 0.0 Nets 0.0 Raptors 0.0 Team Central Title Percent ==== ====================== Cavaliers 100.0 Bulls 0.0 Pistons 0.0 Pacers 0.0 Bucks 0.0 Eastern Conference Playoff Advancement (Percent) Code: Team To 1st To 2nd To Conf To Fnls Champs ==== ======= ======= ======= ======= ======= Cavaliers 100.0 97.6 62.6 44.2 33.1 Celtics 100.0 95.8 48.1 28.0 18.3 Magic 100.0 92.8 72.7 26.7 15.8 Hawks 100.0 64.8 9.5 0.8 0.2 Heat 100.0 21.4 2.7 0.1 0.0 76ers 99.9 20.5 3.8 0.3 0.0 Bulls 88.6 3.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 Pistons 93.0 3.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 Bobcats 17.2 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 Pacers 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Bucks 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Nets 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Raptors 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Rockets Home Court Advantage First Round Matchups Code: Team Percent ==== ======= Blazers 13.5 Hornets 12.7 Jazz 11.3 Spurs 6.1 Mavericks 4.2 Nuggets 1.3 Suns 0.0 Rockets Away (No Home Court Advantage) First Round Matchups Code: Team Percent ==== ======= Blazers 15.2 Spurs 13.9 Nuggets 10.4 Hornets 6.7 Jazz 2.7 Lakers 1.6 Mavericks 0.2 Rockets Combined First Round Matchups Code: Team Percent ==== ======= Blazers 28.7 Spurs 20.0 Hornets 19.5 Jazz 14.0 Nuggets 11.7 Mavericks 4.4 Lakers 1.6 Suns 0.0 Rockets Percent of First Round Home Court Advantage = 49.3 ================================================== I'm on vacation so I can't update things as timely as before; otherwise, I might get in trouble with the boss! Anyway, I've changed things a little. 1. Added playoffs! Now you can see that the Rockets have a 53% chance of getting out of the first round! 2. Fixed a tiny bug in the ranking. It was pretty rare so it should affect the results very little. With last night's results, the Nuggets look have a great chance of getting the second seed. Also, the Jazz look like they're going to fall to 6th or 7th which means our likelihood of facing them in the first round is dropping. If you have any feedback for improvement, let me know. Again, enjoy!
Keep up the great work, BigBigRed! I think it'll also be interesting to see the win probabilities for each of the Rockets remaining games. Can you post them?
Jesus Christ: BigRedRed is Daryl Morey,,,, or someone who works for the team. Fircken Awesome. Keep up the good work. Wizard
"Rockets have a 53% chance of getting out of the first round!" Thanks BigBigRed! However, I believe that our chance > 53% if Landry can play.
Tooting my own horn slightly early here, but my predictions back from Feb. 24 (about 20 games ago) match the simulator almost exactly. I didn't break down the Spurs because I thought they had #2 locked (which they still could do). http://bbs.clutchfans.com/showthread.php?t=163427 I think a legit point to make is that teams have only slightly played better or slightly played worse over the last 20 games. And scheduling has a HUGE effect on your record and standing. Many teams get hot and cold, but at the end of the season, you look back and realize that you weren't as hot as you thought or as cold as you thought because of your schedule. Even when the Jazz were all the way up to like 3 or 4, I held strong to my belief that they'd be down to 7. And even when Denver was down to 7, I stuck to thinking that they'd be back up to 3. Can teams out play their history? Of course. Back then, I projected the Rockets to win 50 games +/- 2. They've already got to 48. How did that happen? In the 19 games since being 35-21, they've gone 6-0 vs scrubs and 7-6 in toss up games. Up until Feb. 24, the Rockets were 21-9 vs scrubs and 14-12 in toss up games. In that thread, Old Man Rock immediately predicted that the Rockets would go "at least 60%" on toss up games from then on out. Where does that improvement come from? Chemistry? No more T-Mac in and out? I can buy that, but not to the point of playing sooo much better. The Rockets have won and lost their latest 13 toss up games at the EXACT SAME RATE as their first 26 toss up games. But going 6-0 vs scrubs is a very legit sign of improvement imo, especially since they were 21-9 prior to then. So baby steps is what I see. Actually, I think that team has played much better and some of that has been nullified by Landry being shot. Facts are that the Rockets have been all year and still are one of the best teams in the West when it comes to playing toss-up games. Only the Lakers have done decidedly better and the Spurs have been about the same. And while keeping up their strong play in tough games, the Rockets have dramatically improved in winning easier games, and also looked like they're playing better basketball. Once again though, looking good has a lot to do with your schedule. Once Landry gets healthy, I honestly think the Rockets have the capacity to go as far as any other team in the West. They'll still be 4/5, though I'm really hoping they can move up to the 2/3 slot.
i believe his method is pretty similar to the method i used in my program to predict the final season standings. with my program i get the following win probablilites for the rockets home games: rockets vs. blazers -> 82.4 % rockets vs. magic -> 61.2 % rockets vs. hornets -> 74.9 % and for the games on the road: rockets @ lakers -> 13.2 % rockets @ kings -> 69.1 % rockets @ warriors -> 44.5 % rockets @ mavs -> 24.0 % so, 3 more wins for the rockets has to be the minimum. 4 more wins would be ok and 5 more wins would be great and probably secure home court advantage.
Latest NBA results used: Apr 3 Western Conference Average Wins Code: Team Wins ==== ==== Lakers 64.7 Nuggets 53.9 Spurs 53.3 Blazers 52.5 Rockets 51.6 Hornets 50.4 Jazz 49.2 Mavericks 48.4 Suns 45.8 Western Conference Wins (Percent) Code: Team 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 ==== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== Lakers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.1 8.2 27.6 42.1 20.9 Nuggets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 5.7 24.2 41.8 23.7 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Spurs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 5.7 17.4 30.3 29.2 13.9 2.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Blazers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 4.1 15.1 29.9 30.8 16.4 3.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Rockets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 3.1 13.1 28.1 32.4 18.8 4.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Hornets 0.0 0.0 0.8 6.0 18.1 29.4 26.8 14.5 4.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Jazz 0.0 0.3 4.4 21.1 36.1 27.3 9.5 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Mavericks 0.4 4.5 16.7 30.9 29.8 14.9 2.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Suns 26.7 34.7 21.3 4.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Western Conference Placement (Percent) Code: Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th out ==== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== Lakers 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Nuggets 0.0 66.0 23.6 7.7 2.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Spurs 0.0 20.2 47.8 16.4 11.4 3.6 0.5 0.0 0.0 Blazers 0.0 8.4 15.7 38.0 26.0 10.0 1.7 0.2 0.0 Rockets 0.0 4.7 9.6 28.7 32.5 18.8 5.1 0.6 0.0 Hornets 0.0 0.6 3.2 8.1 19.0 33.7 25.9 9.2 0.1 Jazz 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 7.6 27.3 45.2 19.0 0.2 Mavericks 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.2 6.3 21.4 60.4 10.4 Suns 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 10.6 89.2 Western Conference Division Title (Percent) Code: Team Northwest Title Percent ==== ====================== Nuggets 87.9 Blazers 12.1 Jazz 0.0 Team Pacific Title Percent ==== ====================== Lakers 100.0 Suns 0.0 Team Southwest Title Percent ==== ====================== Spurs 76.0 Rockets 18.0 Hornets 6.0 Mavericks 0.0 Western Conference Playoff Advancement (Percent) Code: Team To 1st To 2nd To Conf To Fnls Champs ==== ======= ======= ======= ======= ======= Lakers 100.0 88.4 73.3 57.9 27.5 Nuggets 100.0 58.4 18.1 6.9 1.1 Spurs 100.0 58.1 26.2 8.5 1.5 Blazers 100.0 62.4 36.0 13.4 3.2 Rockets 100.0 47.5 21.8 6.4 1.1 Hornets 99.9 33.2 9.6 2.2 0.2 Jazz 99.8 36.7 11.4 3.7 0.6 Mavericks 89.6 14.0 3.2 0.8 0.1 Suns 10.8 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 Eastern Conference Average Wins Code: Team Wins ==== ==== Cavaliers 65.6 Celtics 61.7 Magic 61.2 Hawks 46.5 Heat 43.0 76ers 42.4 Bulls 39.6 Pistons 39.5 Bobcats 36.5 Pacers 34.9 Bucks 34.7 Nets 33.4 Raptors 32.9 Eastern Conference Wins (Percent) Code: Team 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 ==== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== Cavaliers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.1 11.6 29.2 37.8 19.0 Celtics 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 7.3 30.4 44.5 17.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Magic 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 5.4 18.1 33.2 31.3 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Hawks 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 3.9 15.3 29.8 30.8 16.4 3.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Heat 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 7.4 22.9 34.6 25.3 8.1 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 76ers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 6.0 17.6 27.7 26.4 15.4 5.3 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Bulls 0.3 3.2 13.0 27.8 32.2 19.1 4.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Pistons 0.6 5.2 16.6 29.1 28.1 15.3 4.5 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Bobcats 31.3 29.9 14.9 3.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Pacers 22.3 7.1 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Bucks 19.7 3.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Nets 4.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Raptors 2.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Eastern Conference Placement (Percent) Code: Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th out ==== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== Cavaliers 98.8 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Celtics 1.0 75.0 24.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Magic 0.1 24.0 75.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Hawks 0.0 0.0 0.0 94.8 4.6 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 Heat 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.2 67.8 26.4 2.5 0.1 0.0 76ers 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 25.8 61.8 8.0 2.3 0.0 Bulls 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 3.6 46.0 43.9 6.4 Pistons 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.7 7.6 41.5 45.6 3.6 Bobcats 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.9 7.2 90.8 Pacers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 99.2 Bucks 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 Nets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.9 Raptors 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 Eastern Conference Division Title (Percent) Code: Team Southeast Title Percent ==== ====================== Magic 100.0 Hawks 0.0 Heat 0.0 Bobcats 0.0 Team Atlantic Title Percent ==== ====================== Celtics 100.0 76ers 0.0 Nets 0.0 Raptors 0.0 Team Central Title Percent ==== ====================== Cavaliers 100.0 Bulls 0.0 Pistons 0.0 Pacers 0.0 Bucks 0.0 Eastern Conference Playoff Advancement (Percent) Code: Team To 1st To 2nd To Conf To Fnls Champs ==== ======= ======= ======= ======= ======= Cavaliers 100.0 97.2 57.8 38.1 26.7 Celtics 100.0 95.8 53.9 30.8 19.7 Magic 100.0 93.3 73.2 30.1 18.1 Hawks 100.0 64.0 8.5 0.7 0.1 Heat 100.0 25.7 2.7 0.1 0.0 76ers 100.0 17.1 3.5 0.2 0.0 Bulls 93.6 3.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 Pistons 96.4 3.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 Bobcats 9.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Pacers 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Bucks 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Nets 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Raptors 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Rockets Home Court Advantage First Round Matchups Code: Team Percent ==== ======= Blazers 17.6 Hornets 9.7 Jazz 6.7 Spurs 4.4 Mavericks 1.7 Nuggets 1.7 Suns 0.0 Rockets Away (No Home Court Advantage) First Round Matchups Code: Team Percent ==== ======= Blazers 25.9 Spurs 15.8 Nuggets 10.7 Hornets 4.6 Jazz 0.7 Lakers 0.6 Mavericks 0.0 Rockets Combined First Round Matchups Code: Team Percent ==== ======= Blazers 43.4 Spurs 20.3 Hornets 14.3 Nuggets 12.4 Jazz 7.4 Mavericks 1.7 Lakers 0.6 Suns 0.0 Rockets Percent of First Round Home Court Advantage = 41.7 ============================================ If our goal was to avoid the Jazz, we're doing a pretty good job of that. We only have about a 7% chance of meeting them in the first round. In fact, the Blazers and looking more and more probable as our opponent in the first round. Our two losses have almost knocked us out of winning the division since we only an 18% of doing that. Also, we've only got a 42% chance of getting home court now. Our drop in probability in advancing to the second round is likely due to this drop in likelihood of home court. I haven't had time to make any additions to my simulator or the output since I am on vacation but I'll try to do my best to sneak a few minutes in here and there. Enjoy!
Dang it, I found a bug in my playoff code. I had the winner of the 1-8 play the winner of the 2-7 instead of the winner of the 4-5. I'm re-running the simulator right now with the correction and should post it later today.
Fixed Results Latest NBA results used: Apr 3 Western Conference Average Wins Code: Team Wins ==== ==== Lakers 64.7 Nuggets 53.9 Spurs 53.3 Blazers 52.5 Rockets 51.6 Hornets 50.4 Jazz 49.2 Mavericks 48.4 Suns 45.8 Western Conference Wins (Percent) Code: Team 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 ==== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== Lakers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.1 8.0 27.8 42.1 21.0 Nuggets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 5.4 24.7 41.7 23.4 4.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Spurs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 5.9 17.4 30.3 29.1 14.0 2.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Blazers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 4.0 15.3 29.5 31.1 16.2 3.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Rockets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 3.2 13.2 28.2 32.2 18.5 4.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Hornets 0.0 0.0 0.8 5.8 17.6 28.9 27.6 14.6 4.2 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Jazz 0.0 0.2 4.4 21.1 35.9 27.4 9.7 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Mavericks 0.4 4.5 16.7 31.1 29.8 14.7 2.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Suns 27.2 34.8 20.7 4.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Western Conference Placement (Percent) Code: Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th out ==== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== Lakers 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Nuggets 0.0 66.1 23.8 7.6 2.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 Spurs 0.0 20.2 47.5 16.5 11.5 3.8 0.4 0.0 0.0 Blazers 0.0 8.4 15.8 38.2 25.7 10.1 1.5 0.2 0.0 Rockets 0.0 4.7 9.5 28.6 32.3 18.9 5.3 0.6 0.0 Hornets 0.0 0.6 3.3 8.1 19.6 33.4 25.8 9.1 0.1 Jazz 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 7.7 27.2 45.2 19.1 0.2 Mavericks 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.1 6.2 21.6 60.6 10.3 Suns 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 10.4 89.4 Western Conference Division Title (Percent) Code: Team Northwest Title Percent ==== ====================== Nuggets 87.8 Blazers 12.1 Jazz 0.0 Team Pacific Title Percent ==== ====================== Lakers 100.0 Suns 0.0 Team Southwest Title Percent ==== ====================== Spurs 75.5 Rockets 18.2 Hornets 6.3 Mavericks 0.0 Western Conference Playoff Advancement (Percent) Code: Team To 1st To 2nd To Conf To Fnls Champs ==== ======= ======= ======= ======= ======= Lakers 100.0 88.4 69.5 56.2 25.6 Nuggets 100.0 58.1 28.1 8.0 1.2 Spurs 100.0 57.9 27.6 9.1 1.5 Blazers 100.0 62.5 26.8 12.7 2.8 Rockets 100.0 47.1 16.9 6.3 1.0 Hornets 99.9 33.0 10.8 2.4 0.3 Jazz 99.8 37.5 15.9 4.1 0.6 Mavericks 89.7 14.1 4.0 0.9 0.0 Suns 10.6 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 Eastern Conference Average Wins Code: Team Wins ==== ==== Cavaliers 65.6 Celtics 61.7 Magic 61.2 Hawks 46.5 Heat 43.0 76ers 42.4 Bulls 39.6 Pistons 39.4 Bobcats 36.5 Pacers 34.9 Bucks 34.7 Nets 33.4 Raptors 32.9 Eastern Conference Wins (Percent) Code: Team 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 ==== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== Cavaliers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.2 11.3 29.2 37.9 19.1 Celtics 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 7.2 30.6 44.7 16.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Magic 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 5.3 18.1 33.7 30.9 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Hawks 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 3.9 15.0 29.8 31.0 16.4 3.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Heat 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 7.6 23.0 34.4 25.4 7.8 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 76ers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 6.0 17.3 27.9 26.5 15.3 5.1 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Bulls 0.3 3.1 13.2 28.1 31.9 19.0 4.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Pistons 0.7 5.3 17.5 28.4 27.8 15.5 4.4 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Bobcats 30.9 30.1 15.1 3.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Pacers 22.3 7.1 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Bucks 19.4 3.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Nets 3.9 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Raptors 2.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Eastern Conference Placement (Percent) Code: Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th out ==== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== Cavaliers 98.8 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Celtics 1.0 75.1 23.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Magic 0.1 23.9 76.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Hawks 0.0 0.0 0.0 95.0 4.4 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 Heat 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 67.8 26.5 2.6 0.2 0.0 76ers 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9 26.1 61.7 8.0 2.3 0.0 Bulls 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 3.6 46.0 43.7 6.6 Pistons 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6 7.6 41.5 45.5 3.7 Bobcats 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9 7.4 90.6 Pacers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 99.2 Bucks 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 Nets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.9 Raptors 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 Eastern Conference Division Title (Percent) Code: Team Southeast Title Percent ==== ====================== Magic 100.0 Hawks 0.0 Heat 0.0 Bobcats 0.0 Team Atlantic Title Percent ==== ====================== Celtics 100.0 76ers 0.0 Nets 0.0 Raptors 0.0 Team Central Title Percent ==== ====================== Cavaliers 100.0 Bulls 0.0 Pistons 0.0 Pacers 0.0 Bucks 0.0 Eastern Conference Playoff Advancement (Percent) Code: Team To 1st To 2nd To Conf To Fnls Champs ==== ======= ======= ======= ======= ======= Cavaliers 100.0 97.0 90.5 53.9 37.9 Celtics 100.0 95.8 57.2 27.2 17.9 Magic 100.0 93.6 42.3 18.1 11.1 Hawks 100.0 63.9 5.9 0.6 0.1 Heat 100.0 25.9 1.5 0.1 0.0 76ers 100.0 16.7 1.3 0.1 0.0 Bulls 93.4 3.3 0.6 0.0 0.0 Pistons 96.3 3.6 0.6 0.0 0.0 Bobcats 9.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Pacers 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Bucks 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Nets 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Raptors 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Rockets Home Court Advantage First Round Matchups Code: Team Percent ==== ======= Blazers 17.2 Hornets 10.0 Jazz 6.6 Spurs 4.5 Mavericks 1.7 Nuggets 1.6 Suns 0.0 Rockets Away (No Home Court Advantage) First Round Matchups Code: Team Percent ==== ======= Blazers 25.6 Spurs 16.1 Nuggets 10.8 Hornets 4.7 Jazz 0.7 Lakers 0.6 Mavericks 0.0 Rockets Combined First Round Matchups Code: Team Percent ==== ======= Blazers 42.8 Spurs 20.6 Hornets 14.6 Nuggets 12.4 Jazz 7.3 Mavericks 1.7 Lakers 0.6 Suns 0.0 Rockets Percent of First Round Home Court Advantage = 41.6 ============================================== Okay, these are fixed. Again, the big point is the our home court chances are slipping away and it is looking more and more like the Blazers.
Interesting that the Blazers have the second highest percentage in the West behind the Lakers to advance to the Finals.
