End of Season Simulator by BigBigRed

Nooooo!

Thanks for this information. I think we WILL face the Blazers with HCA.

 

NERDS!

 

Very well done, but not exact. For example The Jazz and Blazers still need to win 2-3 games to be at 100% out of 9th place. But this is still damn good.

 

well done

 

dont be scared
this is a different team than the two previous years

 

0.0% could be 0.04%

 

Im certainly convinced that Daryl Morey posts on Clutchfans now

 

Hmmmm...stick Thunder 96, Spurs 95 in your simulator.


Interesting to see how the odds stack up now that the Spurs have come back to the pack.

 

^^that loss by the spurs might mess up all the stats

 

kevin durant owns the spurs and i love him for it

 

Latest NBA results used: Mar 31


Western Conference Average Wins

Code:

Team       Wins
====       ====
Lakers     64.2
Nuggets    53.6
Spurs      52.9
Rockets    52.4
Blazers    52.1
Hornets    50.8
Jazz       50.5
Mavericks  48.7
Suns       45.1

Western Conference Wins (Percent)

Code:

Team        44    45    46    47    48    49    50    51    52    53    54    55    56    57    58    59    60    61    62    63    64    65    66  
====       ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== =====
Lakers      0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   1.1   5.9  18.8  33.1  30.2  10.9
Nuggets     0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   2.4  12.6  31.5  34.4  16.4   2.5   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0
Spurs       0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.5   3.1  10.9  23.2  29.6  22.8   8.8   1.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0
Rockets     0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   1.1   6.1  17.1  27.2  27.3  15.7   4.8   0.6   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0
Blazers     0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   1.8   7.9  20.1  30.1  26.2  11.6   2.2   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0
Hornets     0.0   0.0   0.1   0.8   4.4  13.2  23.5  27.0  19.7   8.8   2.2   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0
Jazz        0.0   0.0   0.0   0.5   4.3  16.4  30.3  28.7  15.2   4.0   0.4   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0
Mavericks   0.1   0.8   3.9  13.0  24.7  28.5  20.0   7.8   1.2   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0
Suns       20.3  30.8  25.8  11.3   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0

Western Conference Placement (Percent)

Code:

Team       1st   2nd   3rd   4th   5th   6th   7th   8th   out
====      ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== =====
Lakers    100.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0
Nuggets     0.0  50.2  29.0  11.2   6.1   2.8   0.7   0.0   0.0
Spurs       0.0  17.3  34.0  18.8  17.0   9.4   3.3   0.3   0.0
Rockets     0.0  19.5  16.5  26.0  18.2  12.8   6.3   0.7   0.0
Blazers     0.0   9.3  11.8  27.0  23.8  17.2   8.7   2.2   0.0
Hornets     0.0   2.4   5.8   9.6  15.3  22.1  33.3  11.5   0.1
Jazz        0.0   1.5   2.8   6.6  17.5  30.1  32.5   8.9   0.1
Mavericks   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.7   2.2   5.7  15.1  71.0   5.2
Suns        0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   5.3  94.6

Western Conference Division Title (Percent)

Code:

Team      Northwest Title Percent
====      ======================
Nuggets    81.0
Blazers    14.5
Jazz        4.5

Team      Pacific Title Percent
====      ======================
Lakers    100.0
Suns        0.0

Team      Southwest Title Percent
====      ======================
Spurs      53.0
Rockets    37.2
Hornets     9.6
Mavericks   0.1

Eastern Conference Average Wins

Code:

Team       Wins
====       ====
Cavaliers  67.1
Magic      61.6
Celtics    61.4
Hawks      46.7
Heat       42.7
76ers      42.0
Pistons    40.0
Bulls      39.6
Bobcats    37.2
Bucks      35.4
Pacers     35.3
Nets       32.9
Raptors    32.0

Eastern Conference Wins (Percent)

Code:

Team        36    37    38    39    40    41    42    43    44    45    46    47    48    49    50    51    52    53    54    55    56    57    58    59    60    61    62    63    64    65    66    67    68    69  
====       ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== =====
Cavaliers   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   1.5   7.4  20.6  33.4  28.0   8.9
Magic       0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.7   4.0  13.4  26.8  30.6  19.6   4.9   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0
Celtics     0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.4   3.4  14.9  34.3  35.9  11.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0
Hawks       0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.3   3.2  12.1  26.7  30.7  20.1   6.3   0.7   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0
Heat        0.0   0.0   0.0   0.4   3.5  13.0  25.6  29.6  19.0   7.4   1.4   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0
76ers       0.0   0.0   0.3   2.6  10.5  21.9  27.5  21.9  11.2   3.3   0.6   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0
Pistons     0.3   2.8  10.8  22.9  28.4  21.7  10.2   2.6   0.3   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0
Bulls       0.3   3.1  12.9  28.0  32.1  19.2   4.4   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0
Bobcats    20.3  29.6  24.7  12.5   3.5   0.5   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0
Bucks      28.1  13.8   3.6   0.3   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0
Pacers     26.6  12.8   3.2   0.3   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0
Nets        2.3   0.3   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0
Raptors     0.4   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0

Eastern Conference Placement (Percent)

Code:

Team       1st   2nd   3rd   4th   5th   6th   7th   8th   out
====      ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== =====
Cavaliers  99.8   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0
Magic       0.2  43.9  55.9   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0
Celtics     0.0  55.9  44.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0
Hawks       0.0   0.0   0.0  97.0   2.7   0.3   0.0   0.0   0.0
Heat        0.0   0.0   0.0   1.8  64.8  27.2   5.6   0.6   0.0
76ers       0.0   0.0   0.0   1.3  27.2  48.1  16.6   6.1   0.6
Pistons     0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   4.5  14.4  40.4  35.4   5.4
Bulls       0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.7   9.3  32.9  43.6  13.5
Bobcats     0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.6   4.5  13.2  81.6
Bucks       0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.3  99.7
Pacers      0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.8  99.2
Nets        0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 100.0
Raptors     0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 100.0

Eastern Conference Division Title (Percent)

Code:

Team      Southeast Title Percent
====      ======================
Magic     100.0
Hawks       0.0
Heat        0.0
Bobcats     0.0

Team      Atlantic Title Percent
====      ======================
Celtics   100.0
76ers       0.0
Nets        0.0
Raptors     0.0

Team      Central Title Percent
====      ======================
Cavaliers 100.0
Pistons     0.0
Bulls       0.0
Bucks       0.0
Pacers      0.0

Rockets Home Court Advantage First Round Matchups

Code:

Team       Percent
====       =======
Hornets     15.7
Jazz        15.6
Blazers     14.6
Spurs        6.3
Mavericks    4.5
Nuggets      3.4
Suns         0.0

Rockets Away (No Home Court Advantage) First Round Matchups

Code:

Team       Percent
====       =======
Blazers     12.1
Spurs       10.3
Nuggets      7.9
Hornets      4.8
Jazz         3.8
Lakers       0.7
Mavericks    0.2

Rockets Combined First Round Matchups

Code:

Team       Percent
====       =======
Blazers     26.8
Hornets     20.5
Jazz        19.4
Spurs       16.6
Nuggets     11.4
Mavericks    4.7
Lakers       0.7
Suns         0.0

Rockets Percent of First Round Home Court Advantage = 60.2

==================================================

I changed things around a bit and included the Eastern conference. I also tweaked my win probability function a tiny bit. The Spurs loss increased our odds of getting the division and getting to second or third and bumped up our home court probability slightly. I would have liked to have seen the Hornets lose as that would have helped us a tiny bit too. Also, the Jazz are now the third most probable team that we'll meet in the first round as opposed to the second.

Please enjoy and give me feedback on any additional stats that might be interesting.

 

Thanks BigBigRed, I am enjoying looking at your number crunching... can't wait to see what last night's results do... having Utah and Spurs lose.

 

Um, those numbers were from last nights action. Notice now Denver has a 50% chance to get the 2 spot.

 

Edit.. never mind.. I was looking at yesterday's numbers... got confused.

 

Really nice work, Big Big Red. I'll be obsessively lurking this thread for the rest of the season. Great stuff.

 

Yea, me2, as well as the Magic No.'s Thread. I really appreciate both threads.
I am so hoping that we get the #2 seed. To me, it it more important to have home court in the 1st 2 rounds, thus avoiding LA 'til WCF, than it is to avoid UTH.
So, Best Case Scenario [BCS from here on out], we get the 2 (or 3) seed and are in the 2, 3, 6 & 7 bracket with any of the following; NOH, POR, DAL & DEN (I don't care who our 1st_R_Matchup is, but keep in mind that this is 1 man's BCS POV) . That means my BCS is to have LAL, SAS & UTH in the 1, 4, 5 & 8 bracket. So Worst Case Scenario [WCS], our 1st_R_Matchup is UTH & our 2nd_R_Matchup is LAL.
I know UTH hasn't been playing well, but if they could beat DEN tomorrow night in DEN, that would be huge 4us, IMO.

Oh, last thing - I do not fear UTH. Part of me would like to see us put them to rest finally and I know that we could, but, either way it would take a lot out of any opponent to grind out a series w/UTH, and we need all of the help that we can get.

Then again, in those championship years, we beat UTH. Hummm. I guess I won't worry anymore. Leave it to the hands of fate.

Despite the epiphany, I'll still be obsessively checking both threads 'til the end of the reg season.

 

Fun stuff to look at, nice work!

 

I don't think anyone fears Utah, but if we had a choice, they would be the last one. Since the most plausable scenerio involving Utah is us getting the #2 seed and them getting the #7 seed. That means we beat some good teams down the stretch and they lost to some good teams down the stretch. You have to think our chance of beating them are pretty good.

We'd have the "underdog" status because critics are going to look at the past 2 years and determine Utah to be the favorite to win.

And you have to admit, it would be kind of nice to get that monkey off our back if/when we beat them in the 1st round.

 

This is krazy !! Only on clutchfans

 

Have you explained exactly where you get your numbers anywhere? I'd like to know.