Thanks for the thread. Comparing your model results to the actual odds if the the last 3 games have a 50/50 outcome: Hornets 37.5% Blazers 25.0% Mavericks 25.0% Spurs 12.5% It appears to me that your model is inclined to think that the Rockets will lose to Dallas and Portland lose to Denver. Thus our matchup with Portland is higher on yours.
Actually since you have the Rockets chances of the HCA at 75.8% vs 87.5% if the games' outcomes are 50/50, then your model is favoring the following scenario Dallas beats Houston, San Antonio beats New Orleans, Portland beats Denver
You can see the numbers directly in the total number of wins for each team. The model gives Houston a 47% of winning, Portland a 66% chance of winning and San Antonio a 69% chance of winning.
BigBigRed, Thank you for this thread. I am sure there is a lot of hard work that goes into it. I appreciate it very much so and I guess this is it for the thread. I wonder if you have something similar up your hat for the playoffs? Hum, we'll have to wait & see... Question - With the Rockets chances of winning the SW Div @ 63.4%, I would expect (& perhaps that is the problem here but I will let you address the question) our 2nd & 3rd seeding chances to total that percentage, but they don't [30.8% chance of 2 seed, 21.7% chance of 3 seed - that equals 51.5%. See, if we we win the division, we will be 2 if POR wins & 3 if DEN wins, so I would expect those 2, 3 seeding chances to add up to our chance of winning the SW Div, or am I missing something?
it looks like your computation is closer to morey's http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showthread.php?t=166427
Sorry everyone for not catching this. I guess that I'm just a bit anixous today. Wonder why? Anywho, I know the saying 'up your sleeve' & 'under your hat' & I know that noone ever says 'up your hat.' So if you got a problem wit dat, that's just the way the cookie bounces, so up your hat, Bub
Eh... I give Houston and San Antonio a slightly higher shot. The Hornets have to lose AND the Mavs win to switch. Considering that 6th isn't really that much different than 7, I can't really see either team being motivated. I don't think they will rest their starters or anything, but there is a difference in the way a team with a lot to play for (Houson and SA) and a team like the Hornets and the Mavs where they aren't really losing or gaining anything by winning or losing.
I am planning to do something similar for the playoffs. I don't expect it to be as "accurate" because I don't have as much data to condition off of and because I believe that the playoffs are different from the regular season. I will certainly keep posting results for as long as the Rockets are in the playoffs and beyond (hopefully there is no beyond).
BBR, I would like for you to answer my question when you get a chance. Someone else on the board took a swing at it but it doesn't add up. Thanks
