Its slightly more useful than if you had created a "What seed do you think the Rockets will finish with?" thread the same time as this simulator was created. This is one thing I hate. People think that because its a program its supposed to have some sort of special predictive powers. The program was created by a human and its based on basic probability theory.
Yes they do. It calculates the probabilities you will meet a certain team in the first round, second round, etc. It calculates the odds that a team will be 1st seed, 2nd seed, etc. I don't think a human could do that to the degree of detail that this simulator has. And the thing is, the only possible flaw in the program is the formula that determines who is going to win each game. Because once you get past that formula its all math. W/e triple post, but I can't edit so sorry.
We only have one outcome. We can't go back in time and replay the last two months of the season again. I've said this like 3 times, one outcome doesn't disprove a probability. You see proof of this every time a team gets upset. Houston has perhaps a 80% chance to beat Golden State, but just because they beat them in a single game, does that mean that the initial probability was wrong for that game? In Texas Hold'em, you can beat AA with 72 offsuit and it doesn't mean that pocket Aces aren't still going to be a 4 to 1 favorite to win before any cards are flipped.
Latest NBA results used: Apr 12 Western Conference Average Wins Code: Team Wins ==== ==== Lakers 64.8 Nuggets 54.3 Blazers 53.6 Spurs 53.3 Rockets 53.1 Hornets 49.6 Mavericks 49.4 Jazz 48.1 Western Conference Wins (Percent) Code: Team 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 ==== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== Lakers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 22.7 77.3 Nuggets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.7 62.8 31.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Blazers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.6 37.6 58.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Spurs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.0 45.8 42.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Rockets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 16.8 51.5 31.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Hornets 0.0 0.0 46.1 43.4 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Mavericks 0.0 8.4 47.8 43.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Jazz 8.4 71.3 20.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Western Conference Placement (Percent) Code: Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th out ==== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== Lakers 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Nuggets 0.0 74.5 20.4 2.6 2.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Blazers 0.0 3.6 23.4 52.1 21.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Spurs 0.0 0.2 38.2 19.6 41.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Rockets 0.0 21.8 18.0 25.7 34.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Hornets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 74.6 21.2 4.2 0.0 Mavericks 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.2 62.5 17.3 0.0 Jazz 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.2 16.3 78.5 0.0 Western Conference Division Title (Percent) Code: Team Northwest Title Percent ==== ====================== Nuggets 94.8 Blazers 5.2 Jazz 0.0 Team Pacific Title Percent ==== ====================== Lakers 100.0 Team Southwest Title Percent ==== ====================== Spurs 51.1 Rockets 48.9 Hornets 0.0 Mavericks 0.0 Western Conference Playoff Advancement (Percent) Code: Team To 1st To 2nd To Conf To Fnls Champs ==== ======= ======= ======= ======= ======= Lakers 100.0 86.5 67.7 55.5 24.2 Nuggets 100.0 64.8 34.7 10.2 1.7 Blazers 100.0 63.9 26.2 12.9 2.8 Spurs 100.0 50.2 18.8 6.2 0.9 Rockets 100.0 56.1 23.3 9.0 1.5 Hornets 100.0 30.7 11.8 2.2 0.2 Mavericks 100.0 28.7 10.3 1.8 0.2 Jazz 100.0 19.1 7.0 2.2 0.3 Eastern Conference Average Wins Code: Team Wins ==== ==== Cavaliers 66.6 Celtics 61.6 Magic 59.5 Hawks 47.3 Heat 43.0 Bulls 41.1 76ers 40.5 Pistons 40.0 Eastern Conference Wins (Percent) Code: Team 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 ==== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== Cavaliers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.7 32.6 63.7 Celtics 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 36.5 61.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Magic 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.1 38.5 56.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Hawks 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.7 45.0 43.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Heat 0.0 0.0 0.0 24.1 54.6 21.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Bulls 0.0 17.5 54.9 27.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 76ers 0.0 56.2 39.0 4.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Pistons 25.0 52.8 22.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Eastern Conference Placement (Percent) Code: Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th out ==== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== Cavaliers 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Celtics 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Magic 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Hawks 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Heat 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Bulls 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 48.2 40.0 11.9 0.0 76ers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 39.5 51.6 8.9 0.0 Pistons 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.4 8.4 79.2 0.0 Eastern Conference Division Title (Percent) Code: Team Southeast Title Percent ==== ====================== Magic 100.0 Hawks 0.0 Heat 0.0 Team Atlantic Title Percent ==== ====================== Celtics 100.0 76ers 0.0 Team Central Title Percent ==== ====================== Cavaliers 100.0 Bulls 0.0 Pistons 0.0 Eastern Conference Playoff Advancement (Percent) Code: Team To 1st To 2nd To Conf To Fnls Champs ==== ======= ======= ======= ======= ======= Cavaliers 100.0 97.0 91.8 62.8 46.7 Celtics 100.0 94.3 58.9 22.9 13.9 Magic 100.0 92.6 40.0 13.4 7.5 Hawks 100.0 65.2 5.3 0.6 0.1 Heat 100.0 34.8 1.9 0.2 0.0 Bulls 100.0 5.9 0.6 0.0 0.0 76ers 100.0 6.7 0.7 0.0 0.0 Pistons 100.0 3.5 0.9 0.0 0.0 ======================================== Rockets Home Court Playoff Matchups By Round (Percent) Code: Team 1st 2nd Conf Final ==== ===== ===== ===== ===== Hornets 19.6 4.6 0.9 0.0 Blazers 14.7 0.8 2.9 0.0 Mavericks 14.6 3.4 0.9 0.0 Spurs 9.1 0.0 1.4 0.0 Jazz 5.6 5.0 0.8 0.0 Nuggets 1.9 9.0 0.1 0.0 Hawks 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 Heat 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Pistons 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 76ers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Rockets Away Playoff Matchups By Round (Percent) Code: Team 1st 2nd Conf Final ==== ===== ===== ===== ===== Blazers 21.0 0.4 1.6 0.0 Spurs 12.7 0.0 1.6 0.0 Nuggets 0.8 7.8 2.7 0.0 Lakers 0.0 25.1 10.6 0.0 Cavaliers 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.6 Celtics 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.1 Magic 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 Rockets Combined Playoff Matchups By Round (Percent) Code: Team 1st 2nd Conf Final ==== ===== ===== ===== ===== Blazers 35.7 1.2 4.5 0.0 Spurs 21.9 0.0 2.9 0.0 Hornets 19.6 4.6 0.9 0.0 Mavericks 14.6 3.4 0.9 0.0 Jazz 5.6 5.0 0.8 0.0 Nuggets 2.7 16.8 2.8 0.0 Lakers 0.0 25.1 10.6 0.0 Cavaliers 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.6 Celtics 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.1 Magic 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 Hawks 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 Heat 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Pistons 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 76ers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Rockets Home Court Advantage By Round Code: Round Percent ===== ======= First 65.4 Second 22.8 Conf 6.9 Finals 0.1 =============================== The Spurs were fortunate to pull of the win last night. Had, they lost, we would have had a much better chance of securing the division title and home court for the playoffs. Our pecentages drifted down slightly because of that result. Let's get a win tonight and put the pressure back on the Spurs and Blazers. Enjoy!
The simulator currently does not look at active roster; it is rather difficult to get the data in a machine readable format for the next game and the future. It also does not consider motivation as that is also difficult to judge. I agree that those factors affect the probability, though.
You measure all the projections for ALL the teams there are multiple outcomes.....and you see how close the simulation was in the first place, and if there is something that can be tweaked to make it more accurate. And stop with the holdem analogies, while somewhat apt it has more luck involved, and basketball is more a game of skill...I play holdem.....and trust me, I know the odds. I am curious as to how accurate his projections (read equation) were in his first run of the software. That is interesting...you can check all the teams, where they were projected to finish to see how viable and accurate this is..... That is all... DD
The only way to test the accuracy of his simulation is to play through this season over and over again, hundreds of times. Checking the end of season results and comparing them to projections made beforehand is not a reliable test, unless you have a time machine and a few decades to kill. If I predict that a coin will land on heads 50% of the time, but I end up flipping 15 heads out of 20 later that day, what should I do? I should keep flipping coins and get a larger sample, to see how accurate my prediction was. However, DD would probably suggest that I tweak my numbers so that my prediction leans closer to 75%. How scientific!
The one outcome is the results at the end of the season. Unless you are talking about each teams end result being a single outcome. So its skill that the Spurs suddenly started losing and it has nothing to do with the bad luck they are having with injuries? The analogies about Hold'em have everything to do with this simulator. You start off knowing just the cards in your hand (and lets say we know the cards in the opponents hand too). In this case its 7 2 offsuit and AA. You know that AA is a 4 to 1 favorite, but as cards flip on the table (ie games are being played), the odds change either for the better of worse. Usually the pocket rockets win the hand at the end. But sometimes (rarely), he'll hit a set of 7s or 2s and overcome the odds. That would be akin to Ginobli being declared out for the season, or the Jazz uncharacteristically losing a game at home to a really bad team in the heat of the race. Things like that are going to skew the results. And I'll repeat myself a 3rd time... just because the most probable events didn't happen, doesn't mean this is a bad simulator. It just means in this case the long shot played out. Going back to that Jazz loss. It would be like if someone predicted the Jazz to win, and then after they lost saying that it was a bad prediction. No... picking the Jazz to win at home against a crappy team is almost always a good prediction, but in that one case it just happened to not turn out that way. You can go back to the beggining of the thread and look, but like I've said already, it doesn't make the predictions any more good or bad. I can't stress this enough. You aren't going to be able to judge how accurate the program is based on one outcome. Its statistics 101, you need a MUCH bigger sample size. That is all... DD[/QUOTE]
I started following clutchfans this season and have loved all the great rockets discussion and insight. I officially joined up a couple weeks ago and this is my first post. Unfortunately it is a post that I am using to express frustration that I expect a lot of clutchfans share. I am tired of this inane, ignorant discussion of the statistical validity and accuracy of BigBigRed's simulation. A variety of posters, have illustrated their clear lack of understanding of statistics and probabilities. In sharing their opinions based on a flawed understanding of the statistics and probabilities, they have only further confused the matter. If you struggle with statistics, as it appears many of you do, please make an attempt to inform yourself before further discussion. This would be a great start, http://www.amazon.com/Models-Probab...=sr_1_6?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1239649121&sr=1-6 To BigBigRed, thanks for your efforts. They are much appreciated by most clutchfans who have had a great time following this playoff race with your simulation as an informative supplement to game action. I look forward to an interesting update after today's action. I can't wait for the playoffs so we can see the end of this discussion and get back to what clutchfans is about, Go Rockets.
great first post fernak, i like your style! people just need to realize that these posts tell us what is MOST LIKELY to happen given the current situation. it does not take into random occurrences like injuries etc. those are simply low probability happenings, it doesn't mean that the system is any less accurate. great work bigbigred.
it's just probability. If the standings end up us 3rd portland 4th and sa 5th and at the beginning he had that being just a 10% chance, you can't say that they machine isn't accurate, because the machine still told u there was a 10% chance. It's just like some dude going down the list of schedule and making wins and losses except the machine uses specific stats and whatever bigred programmed in to determine wins and loses.
DD, the more you post about this topic, the more we can be certain that you are confused. See, our adjustment of how accurate we judge your understanding of probability keeps changing.
You are reading it like the largest probability is the prediction, but that doesn't really have much bearing on how right or wrong the simulator is. And you might be wondering now... does this mean the simulator can't be "proven" wrong? Not exactly. If some of the conclusions the simulator draws just don't logically make sense, like if it was predicting Utah/New Orleans to be heavy favorites to land the 5th seed... I'm sure people would be like "hey... they have the two toughest schedules down the stretch, this doesn't make sense". It helps that every "inconsistency" with the probabilities and what actually happened can be explained. The Spurs were strong candidates to win the #2, but they lost Ginobli to injury and had a bad March and now its a toss-up. The fact that the Jazz are number 8 can be explained away by the fact that the Mavs are inexplicably playing out of their minds right now. Everything else is about right on track.
I don't think you can call a probability a prediction. When someone "predicts" something, they are saying they think there's a 100% chance it will happen.
