I find it absolutely hilarious that some believe whatever is posted on Drudge. The man's prior career was selling stuffed Dumbos out of the store at the front gate of the Disney lot in Burbank. He is this generation's Walter Winchell, and Winchell was as much of a journalist as Rush Limbaugh is today!
Is it legal in the US to publish exit polls during election day on the day of the election? In Germany, media outlets are prohibited from doing that...or at least, they don't, maybe it is a self-imposed restriction.
I don't like posting political stuff, but here's some objective stuff that that just happened in the last couple of hours. Stock market dove. Halliburton stock went down. Tradesports Bush contracts went below the 50 mark. I think it's at 48 now. That's a significant drop in a matter of minutes. Bush Ohio Bush Florida Bush popular vote all got smoked.
Corresponded with the early exit poll results that were released. The stock market crashing on the polling results troubles me about a possible Kerry presidency.
Everytime I watch the stock market dive and shoot up, I feel more and more like the whole system is closer to an office betting pool than a system of economics. Early vote in interesting. Traditionally, it is dominated by the GOP because they tend to vote early and Dems, particularly minorities, often wait until election day. But, who knows with this election. At this point, I don't think anyone can claim anything based on numbers thrown out there.
Early turnout reports from CNN by Jerome Armstrong Here are some early reports on turnout: Ohio - African American precincts are performing at 106% what we expected, based on historical numbers. Hispanic precincts are at 144% what we expected. Precincts that went for Gore are turning out 8% higher then those that went Bush in 2000. Democratic base precincts are performing 15% higher than GOP base precincts. Florida - Dem base precincts are performing 14% better than Bush base precincts. In precincts that went for Gore, they are doing 6% better than those that went for Bush. African American precincts at 109%, Hispanic precincts at 106%. Pennsylvania - African American precincts at 102% of expectations, Hispanics at 136% of expectations. The Gore precincts are doing 4 percent better than bush precincts. Michigan- Democratic base precincts are 8% better than GOP base states. Gore precincts are 5% better than Bush. http://www.mydd.com/
the numbers are raw numbers. they are not weighted in any way and should be taken with a giant grain of salt, smeared around the rim of a frosted glass w/ a margherita in it.
just came back from voting in DC, it was very fast no problems. I voted for both democrats and republicans. for the community watch person, there was only one person running so I wrote, "Inspector Gadget" as a write in. My classmates are having issues though. Several from Virginia did not get their absentee ballots as well as a couple from Florida. Obviously, they are very pissed.
Glad to see the good Inspector getting the votes he deserved. He'll make a fine community watch person, as long as that evil Dr. Klaw doesn't decide to move into the neighborhood.
i know all these exit polls mean nothing, so we'll see how these change over the course of the day these are from Slate http://slate.com/id/2109053/ Florida Kerry 50 Bush 49 Ohio Kerry 50 Bush 49 Pennsylvania Kerry 54 Bush 45 Wisconsin Kerry 51 Bush 46 Michigan Kerry 51 Bush 47 Minnesota Kerry 58 Bush 40 Nevada Kerry 48 Bush 50 New Mexico Kerry 50 Bush 48 North Carolina Kerry 49 Bush 51 Colorado Kerry 46 Bush 53
Something very important to note... No one will know the ACTUAL tallies for early vote until tonight. All the numbers we are seeing are exit polls taken today. We won't know the results of the early vote until tonight around 7pm. That is when those numbers are released to the media. There are very strict rules in every state about when votes can be counted, tallied and numbers released.
email from a "GOP insider" reposted from the corner: -- There are media reports that we are behind in early exit polls. Here’s my sense of things. The early exit poll numbers are hard to make sense of right now, until we dissect and analyze them, which is being done even now. It’s of course still early, and it depends on where in the state the numbers are coming from. Much more importantly, our data also suggests what Drudge is reporting: the early samples are heavily weighted toward women (58 percent), which would of course give an artificial advantage to Senator Kerry. That imbalance will not hold up. Indeed, among men we are winning 53-45. To put it another way: if we’d one down in states with a sample that is heavily female, we’re in good shape with the overall population. To put it a third way: it looks like the first exit polls are a reflection of the composition of the electorate, not how the president is performing. Once those return to norm, the President should gain several points (2-3 pts) and Senator Kerry should lose several points (2-3 pts), giving the President the lead in a number of states. Also of note: right now we are ahead among Catholic in Wisconsin by ten points (we lost Catholics in Wisconsin in 2000). The same is true of Pennsylvania. And in the early exits nationally, we are getting 40 percent of the Hispanic vote (in 2000, we received 35 percent). One other thing: the early exit polls in 2000 looked a good deal bleaker than what we are seeing today. For example, early exit polls in 2000 showed us down by four in Arizona; we won by six. Early exit polls in 2000 showed us even in Colorado; we won by nine. And early exit polls in 2000 showed us down by three in Florida; we ended up slightly more than even. I’m not being Pollyannaish here; the race will be a close one. But I would simply caution against putting too much weigh on such early polls. This drama has a ways to go before it fully unfolds.
