I can give you my gut take, which is a slim Kerry win. But it's mostly just a feeling and maybe a wishful one. The race is tied. Florida's tied, Ohio's tied and a good case could be made that Wisconsin, Iowa, NH, Pennsylvania, Minnesota and even New Mexico might be tied too. I'm heartened by the trends and I agree with a lot of Will's predictions on slate. I think Bush probably gets Ohio. Kerry probably gets PA. And it might well come down to Florida. Then again, it could be a Bush or Kerry sweep of all the states above. Anyone who thinks they know more than this (or even to be confident in the results of any of the above states) is just wrong. It's impossible. My gut says Kerry in PA; four out of five in WI, NH, MN, MI, Iowa and, if I had to guess, Florida. Bush in OH, NM, NV, CO and one out of five of the above. Hawaii could surprise for Bush too, but then so could Arkansas for Kerry. And if I get any of that right, it's a lucky guess. Want my real prediction? Tonight's going to be a trip.
There are more white people voting today than ever before. I have never seen a push like this. In other news, the liberals are up to their same dirty tricks. From the powerlineblog: A reader in Wisconsin reports that thirty vans that the Republican Party had rented to drive their voters to the polls had their tires slashed last night. Will report more if we get further information.
www.mypollingplace.com is down since this morning, anyone else have this same problem? Could it be from too much traffic (which is bad oversight on their part) or something more sinister?
i won't predict the elctoral college (oh what the hell, bush gets 286EVs), but i will predict bush not only wins the popular vote, but does so w/ an absolute majority of better than 50%.
oh, and bush wins florida, kerry penn, bush all the western swingers and iowa. it comes down to ohio and wisconsin, w/ the latter being the real squeeker.
btw, excellent EV calculator here: http://www.grayraven.com/ec/ you can plugin any scenario you like.
fwiw, a local tv station in Las Vegas reported that 400,000 voted early or by absentee. They are expecting over a million people to vote in Nevada, which would be a first. 700,000 of those are expected to be in southern NV.
voted this moring at around 8:45, no line at all, walked right in glad I didn't wait in the 2 hour line during early voting my prediction, Kerry 299, Bush 239
Same here. Of course, there may not be much of a line out here in "Podunk, Texas" anyway, but I was afraid of what might happen if I waited until I was free again at 4:00. I just got up early and got it over with. There was probably more of a crowd a little earlier than that, but I had the advantage of not having to be at work until 9:30. I just wish they'd been giving little "I voted" stickers or pins, so I could show off that I did something, for once in my life, before the very last minute.
For those of us who voted early, are the results already counted or do they start counting them today? I cant wait to see the results of early voting, IMO it will be a larger turnout then expected. I have friends who havent voted in years who are out voting today or have already voted.....Awesome
Early voting results will not be counted or posted until tonight. They are usually the first returns to come out - around 7pm. It is likely that the early vote will favor the GOP. It always does because, traditionally, their constituents are the one's who early vote the most. Dems - particularly minorities - tend to reserve their votes until election day.
That's funny. I just moved to PA in July. Jeff: Pretty sure exit polls so far (in Florida at least) have shown Kerry winning early voting. Then again, we know what exit polls are worth these days.
